Ability-X Ratings BEL - 5/9/08

[jonnielu]

:) Ability-X -Belmont Park 5/09/2008 Friday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.

1st - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

247 4 97 5 344
190 3 92 2 282
208 6 92 4 300
205 5 91 15 296
253 2 88 3.5 341
227 1 87 4.5 314
226 7 80 20 306


2nd -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

346 7 98 12 444
350 8 95 15 445
330 1A 95 4.5 425
285 6 94 4 379
243 10 93 2.5 336
317 5 92 3 409
300 11 91 8 391
281 1 87 4.5 368
321 3 83 6 404
317 9 82 8 399
158 2 0 6 158
139 4 0 15 139

3rd - 8.5fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

76 3 96 6 172
77 4 94 2.5 171
42 5 94 1.6 136
60 1 92 15 152
58 2 86 2 144


4th - 6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

344 3 100 15 444
242 9 98 2.5 340
368 7 95 12 463
328 5 93 15 421
229 10 91 4 320
280 1 86 5 366
124 4 0 8 124
250 6 0 20 250
159 8 0 12 159
163 11 0 3.5 163
176 2 0 6 176


5th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

391 1 100 15 491
295 5 99 2.5 394
312 2 98 3.5 410
301 4 98 5 399
368 3 93 10 461
259 6 92 3 351
264 7 90 6 354


6th -7.5fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

267 1 103 20 370
196 3 99 6 295
163 6 97 2.5 260
139 4 96 3 235
179 5 92 3.5 271
188 2 89 6 277
202 7 82 6 284


7th -8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

45 1A 97 4 142
65 2 93 6 158
113 13 92 4 205
82 12 92 8 174
59 11 91 12 150
95 7 91 15 186
75 2B 90 6 165
85 10 88 1.6 173
101 1 87 4 188
117 4 86 15 203
119 6 85 10 204
35 3 84 20 119
104 8 80 20 184
148 9 80 10 228
110 5 80 10 190

8th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

254 2 95 2.5 349
308 5 94 3.5 402
232 3 92 4 324
289 4 92 2 381
255 1 89 5 344


9th -8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

280 5 93 20 373
185 4 93 2.5 278
235 9 91 3.5 326
280 3 91 20 371
235 1 85 8 320
208 7 85 2 293
232 6 82 12 314
254 2 79 20 333
250 8 79 20 329


A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.

jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)

[Keene]

being new to this board.....

how did these ratings do yesterday?
is there a way to understand them without subscribing to your service?

[Keene]

ok, overlooked the date, so i see yesterday's post.


still have the question about the key to reading these numbers.
seems a little less self explanatory than the drf, wouldn't you say?

[jonnielu]

ok, overlooked the date, so i see yesterday's post.


still have the question about the key to reading these numbers.
seems a little less self explanatory than the drf, wouldn't you say?

I've never heard the DRF say much about what 3rd by 7 means for todays race.

jdl

[ryesteve]

seems a little less self explanatory than the drf, wouldn't you say?I've never heard the DRF say much about what 3rd by 7 means for todays race.
Exactly... because, like the guy just said, it's self-explanatory.

[Murph]

I've never heard the DRF say much about what 3rd by 7 means for todays race.

jdlI don't get it either jd. They look alot like speed/pace figures to me, no matter which fraction you are rating. There's NO Beyer influence in those numbers at all?

Murph

[jonnielu]

I don't get it either jd. They look alot like speed/pace figures to me, no matter which fraction you are rating. There's NO Beyer influence in those numbers at all?

Murph

The only commonality would be in putting a performance in the form of a number, or numbers. Beyer originally made the error of not looking beyond face value for the location of variance, and then compounded that error by assigning variance to the track surface.

Beyer intended to solve the equalization of class problems created by shipping from track to track. The age old question, what is the ability of a $20,000 Calder claimer, racing against a $20,000 Aqueduct claimer at GP in March?

The assumptions that were based on the notion of class left the average handicapper wanting for a better method.

Beyer, in his attempt at a better, and more accurate method for comparing one horse to another, also made assumptions about the variance in time that were no more well-founded then the DRF track variant of the 70's.

Ability-X ratings do not recognize any concept of track variance.

jdl