Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Peter Pan this saturday at BEL
are available at the link below. Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

Without handicapping a lick, TOMCITO and READYS ECHO haver the top two figs, but they are on the KEE Polytrack which of course means very little
when they are both now running over a conventional dirt surface.

I can't wait to get to it later tommorow, looks like we may have an off track ?

John

[xfile]

Without handicapping a lick, TOMCITO and READYS ECHO haver the top two figs, but they are on the KEE Polytrack which of course means very little
when they are both now running over a conventional dirt surface.

I can't wait to get to it later tommorow, looks like we may have an off track ?

John

Ready's Echo has been training lights out at Churchill. I decided on the same 2 just by viewing the entries. No handicapping needed. RE worked in company with Monba before the Derby and made that one look like a maiden. :cool:

[john del riccio]

CASINO DRIVE is a 3yo son of Mineshaft that broke his maiden in Japan in his
first start going 1 1/8 miles as the prohibitive favorite while carrying 123 lbs.
He shows a solid 5f drill over the BEL surface, drops 7 lbs off his win
but draws the rail in a race that starts at the back of the chute.

SPARK CANDLE is another Japan importthat shows much better turf form than dirt form.


TOMCITO ran much better over the KEE Polytrack than he did on the dirt at GP. However, his GP race was his first in this country off a 5 month layoff so its excuseable. The gate drill he had prior to his KEE race was intended to put him closer to the pace which didn't happen and he continues to show quick 3 & 4f breezes.

MINT LANE has shows steady improvement in each of his starts as a 3yo. He tries tackling tougher competition today and gets the services of Coa for a trainer that has gotten hot of late.

DEPUTYVILLE was a private purchase after his start in the Winstar Derby and was easily handled by MINT LANE despite a good trip. He shows a solid 5f breeze but isn't being ridden by any of this barns money riders.

GOLDEN SPIKES finished well in the HAW Derby after the blinkers were removed. He shipped back to his homebase of CRC where he shows two 4f bullets in prreparation for this spot, drops 6 lbs off his last race, and gets the services of Prado for the first time.

READY'S ECHO shows two strong and improving races as a 3yo witht his last coming over the KEE Polytrack. He shows a strong 5f bullet at KEE a week ago and Pletcher is another conditioner that has been hot of late.

COSMIC is two for two going 1 1/8 miles over a dirt surface but they were both around two turns. He is another cold dropping 6 lbs off of his last race and his regular rider stays aboard.

FAST TALKING was easily handled by both MINT LANE & DEPUTYVILLE in his last start and appears to be a need the lead type which doesn't bode well for his chances today.



CLASS:
------

TOMCITO and GOLDEN SPIKES have competed against the toughest competition.


PACE:
-----

Given the statur of this race (Grade-II), it is very surprising that there is an absolute lack of early foot among the field. GOLDEN SPIKES appears to have a decided pace advantage in this spot and even though the blinkers were removed for his most recent start, he still earned a pace figure (which was not his best), better than anyone else.


VARIANT:
--------

1 1/8 miles at BEL on the dirt course is the only type of race run at this distance which is run around one turn. Two turn form doesn't necessarily translate to races run around one turn. Making direct apples to apples comparisons in a race like this is not always possible.


TOMCITO shows a 71 variant rating around two turns on dirt going 1 1/8 miles and a 77 over the KEE polytrack in hi snext start. The question is whether the polytrack surface improved the horses form and will he transfer that form to the dirt today. His only one turn races were sprinting early in his 2yo season where he won both races convincingly. MINT LANE shows a solid race in his last start going 1 1/8 mile around two turns where he earned a 74 variant rating. The only one turn race shown in his record is a 6f sprint in his first start where he finished a distant third in a large field. GOLDEN SPIKES earned a 75 variant rating going 1 1/8 miles in his last start around two turns. He shows an pressing type win around one turn in a 6 1/2f sprint earning a 73 variant rating. READY's ECHO earned a 76 variant rating in his last going 1 1/16 miles around two turns over the KEE polytrack which followed a solid
one turn win at GP going 7f where he earned a 74 variant rating. COSMIC earned a 74 variant rating in hi slast start going 1 1/8 miles around two turns and does show a solid 2nd place finish in a one turn mile a GP.

Simply looking at dirt form and ignoring Polytrack races we have the following:

TOMCITO 71 ( 1 1/8 two turns) improving based on recent Polytrack race
MINT LANE 74 ( 1 1/8 two turns)
GOLDEN SPIKES 75 ( 1 1/8 two turns)
READYS ECHO 74 (7/8 one turn) improving based on recent Polytrack race
COSMIC 74 ( 1 1/8 two turns)



This is a competitive race but none of these horses have ever race 1 1/8 miles around one turn. TOMCITO has clearly raced against the toughested competition but his best race came over Polytrack. MINT LANE has run three solid races as a 3yo. He has had the lead each time in those races but thew one race he did not have the lead, he quit. His pace figures indicate that th eonly way he gets the lead today is if he expends too much energy to do so. GOLDEN SPIKES has raced against very tough competition, has a pace edge, and has run the best variant rating on dirt of any horse; albeit around
two turns. READYS ECHO ran a strong race around one turn going 7f on dirt and followed that up with an improved aeffort at KEE over polytrack. COSMIC is steadily improving and draws an advantageous outside post. I beleive the one turn race going 7f that READY's ECHO competed in inndicates that he will like the one turn topology of todays race and is the horse to beat. As for CASINO DRIVE, I will reserve judgement until I see him run in a stateside event.


READY'S ECHO 7-2
GOLDEN SPIKE 3-1
COSMIC 9-2



Good Luck,
John