Harness....Mhk.....5-08-08

[LottaKash]

The following horse has an ANGLE, that has helped me make a bunch of cash, thru the years.......It is tried and true and many good handicappers use it all the time in their search for winners......

The Angle is simple.....Look for a horse going from a Conditioned Race into a Claimer for the first time......that's it......Keep in mind SR's and decent form are required to have a realistic shot of winning....but, sometimes even mediocre form and SR's will be enough, depending of course, on the quality of the competition.......
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2d Race....@ Mohawk...... #7 REAL JENNA.. m.l. 7/1...this horse fits this angle to a tee......

The Owner (W.A McNeil) is the Trainer, and that is always a good sign, as what you see in the form is usually what you will get in reality....

This horses new good form begins on 4/17 @Wdb...this horse woke up in that race, of nw2, and finished 3d in a new top SR of 79....Then was immediately boosted up in class to nw3, and ran into some very fast fractions, after jumping out for the lead in 26:4, took a tuck 2d and remained on the rail before getting out by the 3/4 in 1:23, and held fairly well finishing evenly in a 1:51 mile (her in 1:52.3)....then was shipped off to Windsor for some easier racing, after that new top, and finished ok, with a decent last 1/4......

Let me say something about the NW's classes......at Mhk, Wdb and M1 ,.,..going from a nw2 to a nw3 is generally a bigger step than you may think......I think there is a bigger difference between the 2, and more than meets the eye.....so the trainers intentions are pretty clear.....AS he was boosted up into a much higher class than he needed to be, as he hadn't won and was still good with the earnings too.....and that class (nw4) at Windsor was a step up from the nw2, also......

Now, tonite, after this trainers new votes of confidence, this horse is CHANGING from Cd racing to CLAIMING racing........This type of change will pop up and bite you, when you are not looking, and I will bite on it tonite.......as this horse is in deceptively nice form.....

I just wish this horse had a better post position tho.......


The Horses I fear the most in here are #8 Emmas Desire - 7/2 ml......and...#3 Iseerightthroughu - 3/1 m.l. ..............

I will use these top and bottom with my little girl....

G.L.

humbly,

[LottaKash]

Also, FWIW.....As you may know already, I am, almost strictly a spot player, as I am always looking for horses that have something going for them, that the crowd may have overlooked, to one degree or another.....

But, I must confess, sometimes, when I know something is coming, I am a little pre-mature when I put out a little goody or two..... so if my horse performs well or has a real-good excuse for the loss, they are almost always Playback Horses for me.......these horses are well researched and unless I have made a serious error, will perform well in their next few starts.....

Also, I am strictly a spot-player when I put out my selections on this forum.......But, when I'm ONLINE at the races, it is another story, as I will play what is happening and look for other good horses going off at long odds......I mean , I could put out a lot of good selections, ahead of time, and I will have many winners, but selecting a horse ahead of time,without knowing the ODDS or what is happening at a particular track on that nite, is very hard, and often times, a horse I particularly liked earlier in the day wil be a no-go for me after seeing the odds, or after I see what is happening at the track....

Picking winners is over-rated.....haha.....The Bottom Line is a LottaKash........haha.......:rolleyes:

G.L.

best,

[LottaKash]

Real Jenna, never got in it.....trailed thruout and beat only 1-horse, an early breaker.......

Well, they all can't win, and for sure, it was a no go, and who knows what this owner trainer was thinking of.....Maybe she is lame and that could be why she is in a claimer now.....haha.......

well, onward and upward..........:lol:

best,

[mrroyboy]

Thats what I wanted to ask you Lotta. If a horse is fit and ready why put him in a claimer? Of course harness racing is different than thoughbreds but it seems logical??

[LottaKash]

Hey Roy, on the surface, you are right about your assumption that something may be wrong with a horse.......At the cheaper racetracks most claimers are full of aches and pains, and that is why they are in the claiming races........they actually want someone to buy their horse........

But, at the better racetracks, there are many more reasons to put a horse in a claimer......firstly, running a horse in a claimer is a good way for a trainer to put a proper price on his horse so that he has a shot of winning........Some horses run out of conditions where, when they win and put more money on their card, they will run out of Conditiioned classes, so when they have to move up in class, they virtually have no shot at winning,as they only have so much speed and ability, so even on their best nite, they still cannot beat those better horses.....While it's true, that a lot of good horses are somewhat sore, hey, what athlete isn't if they are always trying hard to win..?.....I say just believe what you see in your program.....

Some horses make much more money running in claimers, than they ever could running in cd races........The trouble with claimers, is they are boring at times, as there isn't a whole lot changes going on, and the same horses will face each other week after week......so handicapping these claimers, requires a little different thought, and you have to pay attention to all the little details, and you must be alert to a horse, when he is just starting to feel good and willing to improve......they all go in cycles.......At the Big M....the racing is so competitive, that the good form cycle is much shorter, as the horses get a little leg weary, racing so hard week after week...........this is where the smart trainers have an advantage, as they know how to keep a good horse going and they take care of them with more TLC than a lower trainer.......

One of my greatest handicapping strengths, is spotting all the changes and things that can make you some money.......In conditioned races, things are changing all the time..........but in claimers the changes are more subtle, and you have to be more alert, for all those little signals.....for instance, say 4 or 5 horses in a good class of claimers all finish within 1-length of each other in tonite's race, well next week who are going to play ?....Look for aggressiveness in these cases, especially when a horse begins to come alive, all of a sudden......early speed is a very good tipoff...especially at the bigger tracks.....as most horseman know that speed kills, but it is the best way to get a horse into shape......so when you see a confirmed closer wanting to take the lead for a change,,well, that is one signal......perhaps improvement is expected next week.....this happens all the time..........

Next time you see a claimer going for the lead, mark him down, so he gets a little extra attention in your picking next week.....Watch each horse who battles for the lead and try to key on these horse each week, then you will begin to see how horses get tuned up for a win in their next few starts.....Aggressiveness cannot be emphasized enough in claimers, for all horses of course, but you can gain and edge more in claimers by looking at horses when they are aggressive......At the Meadowlands many times you will see a horse jump out and try for the lead and he may get it or gain a forward position and then get shuffled back thruout the race and then later on will go outside again and start his march forward again, these horses, especially when combined with a good strong last 1/4....They are tipping their coming form, and must be considered next week, especially when coming from outside post positions..........One of my favorite Angles is to find a confirmed closer, who take s the lead and keeps it until deep stretch and then fades a bit or more.......Next week he will revert to his preferred running style, but, if in his front running race his TM-SR was equal or better than any of the horses he is in with in his next start, he will improve his SR by as much as 5 points in tonite's race and will be a powerful factor in his claiming race.....This kind of aggressiveness is King in claimers.........

Many handicappers are always looking for horses who get into trouble, you know, the ones who if they hadn't been blocked or interferred with, may have won the race.......While this is very true, for me, I especially look for those same reasons for a loss, but more so with aggressive horses who at some point in the race were battling for the lead, and then got into trouble, (a closer who had road trouble in his last race, very often didn't have a shot to win anyway,) these are the horses that will show a poor running line in their past performances the following week and maybe will win their next race and pay a nice dividend to boot....

I always wished, someone would claim my ex-wife.......:lol:

I hoped this helped, ah, even if it didn't, I still enjoy yacking about it anyway........:rolleyes:

best,

[LottaKash]

Thats what I wanted to ask you Lotta. If a horse is fit and ready why put him in a claimer? Of course harness racing is different than thoughbreds but it seems logical??

I forgot Roy......yeah, it's pretty much the same for T-breds as well.....

Many years ago, on the Md, De, t-bred circuit at Laurel, Pimlico and Delaware Park....there was this old trainer named-- King T. Leatherbury, and he was the king of claimers as he claimed and lost, many, many horses, but he always put them where they belonged, and he was always on top of the trainer standings, for years and years....

Back then, the only thing I did right, was to play his horses....haha....he always seemed to bail me out in the last race of the day.....so it didn't hurt so bad on the long ride home.......:blush:

best,

[mrroyboy]

King Leathbury is still training and claiming.

[LottaKash]

King Leathbury is still training and claiming.

Cool,,,but, he must be old.......:jump:

best,