Ability-X Ratings BEL - 5/8/08, Enjoy

[jonnielu]

Ability-X -Belmont Park 5/08/2008 Thursday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.

1st - 8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

163 8 94 6 257
75 10 90 8 165
87 2 92 8 179
114 6 87 8 201
122 1A 87 6 209
116 4 86 3.5 202
122 5 85 30 207
110 1 84 6 194
106 7 81 12 187
107 3 78 1.6 185
170 9 77 8 247



2nd -8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

268 9 102 15 370
174 1 97 3 271
254 6 91 6 345
199 4 90 3.5 289
240 3 90 15 330
208 5 90 6 298
253 7 86 8 339
221 2 86 10 307
190 8 89 6 279


3rd - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

150 5 93 6 243
143 4 92 10 235
145 3 90 2 235
170 1 86 2.5 256
176 2 84 6 260
178 6 84 3.5 262


4th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

362 8 96 1.6 458
365 4 92 6 457
349 5 86 30 435
128 1 0 10 128
169 2 0 3.5 169
127 3 0 15 127
136 6 0 8 136
117 7 0 15 117
148 9 0 8 148


5th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

388 9 96 15 484
441 5 96 6 537
438 7 96 15 534
395 6 94 15 489
361 3 94 2.5 455
367 8 93 8 460
329 1 91 3 420
408 4 89 20 497
340 2 85 3.5 425


6th -8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

148 5 78 4 226
143 6 92 15 235
163 2 91 5 2541
159 8 91 20 250
193 7 91 12 284
187 9 85 30 272
140 11 81 3 221
167 3 79 8 246
127 4 79 4.5 206

164 10 78 20 242
178 1 78 15 256






7th -6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

328 2 100 1.6 428
358 1A 100 6 458
362 1 100 6 462
457 9 99 20 556
350 5 98 3 448
334 7 97 8 431
429 3 97 20 526
342 6 92 15 434
331 10 92 4 423
325 4 91 20 416
353 8 90 12 443


8th - 8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

84 4 94 15 178 73 1 92 12 165
103 8 89 8 192
76 9 87 3.5 163
112 2 86 5 198
98 1A 85 12 183
87 5 83 6 170
73 3 82 1.8 155
67 7 81 4 148
84 6 77 8 161



9th -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

510 4 100 15 610
534 2 98 50 632
317 11 96 12 413
320 5 92 12 412
347 3 91 6 438
287 9 90 20 377
272 7 90 4 362
319 10 89 3.5 408
308 1 86 6 394
299 6 81 4.5 380
130 8 0 20 130
124 12 0 30 124


A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.

jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)

[jonnielu]

Ability-X -Belmont Park 5/08/2008 Thursday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.

1st - 8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

163 8 94 6 257
75 10 90 8 165
87 2 92 8 179
114 6 87 8 201
122 1A 87 6 209
116 4 86 3.5 202
122 5 85 30 207
110 1 84 6 194
106 7 81 12 187
107 3 78 1.6 185
170 9 77 8 247



2nd -8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

268 9 102 15 370
174 1 97 3 271
254 6 91 6 345
199 4 90 3.5 289
240 3 90 15 330
208 5 90 6 298
253 7 86 8 339
221 2 86 10 307
190 8 89 6 279


3rd - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

150 5 93 6 243
143 4 92 10 235
145 3 90 2 235
170 1 86 2.5 256
176 2 84 6 260
178 6 84 3.5 262

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Greeley's Legacy Maragh Rajiv 118 19.40 5.20 2.90
3 Wafi City Garcia Alan 118 2.70 2.10
1 Dr. V's Magic Coa Eibar 118 2.70



4th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

362 8 96 1.6 458
365 4 92 6 457
349 5 86 30 435
128 1 0 10 128
169 2 0 3.5 169
127 3 0 15 127
136 6 0 8 136
117 7 0 15 117
148 9 0 8 148


5th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

388 9 96 15 484
441 5 96 6 537
438 7 96 15 534
395 6 94 15 489
361 3 94 2.5 455
367 8 93 8 460
329 1 91 3 420
408 4 89 20 497
340 2 85 3.5 425


6th -8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

148 5 78 4 226
143 6 92 15 235
163 2 91 5 2541
159 8 91 20 250
193 7 91 12 284
187 9 85 30 272
140 11 81 3 221
167 3 79 8 246
127 4 79 4.5 206

164 10 78 20 242
178 1 78 15 256






7th -6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

328 2 100 1.6 428
358 1A 100 6 458
362 1 100 6 462
457 9 99 20 556
350 5 98 3 448
334 7 97 8 431
429 3 97 20 526
342 6 92 15 434
331 10 92 4 423
325 4 91 20 416
353 8 90 12 443


8th - 8.5fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

84 4 94 15 178 73 1 92 12 165
103 8 89 8 192
76 9 87 3.5 163
112 2 86 5 198
98 1A 85 12 183
87 5 83 6 170
73 3 82 1.8 155
67 7 81 4 148
84 6 77 8 161



9th -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

510 4 100 15 610
534 2 98 50 632
317 11 96 12 413
320 5 92 12 412
347 3 91 6 438
287 9 90 20 377
272 7 90 4 362
319 10 89 3.5 408
308 1 86 6 394
299 6 81 4.5 380
130 8 0 20 130
124 12 0 30 124

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Adorable You Branch Kyle 115 29.60 10.00 5.40
1 Panthera Tigre Chavez Jorge F. 118 5.80 4.00
7 Outonthebeach Velasquez Cornelio H. 120 3.80





Back in 1895, people didn't know how to read racing forms, they did get the idea that it might be worth learning.

jdl

[netbet]

I am totally confused by your figures. I have checked out the website for some explanations but am not clear on what I am looking at.

Can you please tell us how to interpret your ratings? I do appreciate you posting but without knowing what the numbers mean...they are kind of useless.

Thanks.
NB

[njcurveball]

From what I can tell there are basically 3 ratings and they rarely get a horse on top unless it is a favorite. Nothing too different from Sartin Phase 1 with an Early rating, a late rating, and a composite adding them up.

As for the methodology it seems to vary depending on the result. Perhaps if they post a card with actual selections and reasoning before hand it would clear things up.

The format is also confusing as instead of having program number, then morning line, then the ratings, they are all jumbled.

Looking at the example below, it appears #8 and #12 were throw-outs since foreign horses need at least 150, so that was a lil help although with morning lines of 20 and 30-1 I dont know how much they figured.

The winner #6 was ranked #8 in Early Speed, #9 in the next rating, and then #8 for composite. How anyone with these ratings would put money on that horse is beyond my comprehension.




9th -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

510 4 100 15 610
534 2 98 50 632
317 11 96 12 413
320 5 92 12 412
347 3 91 6 438
287 9 90 20 377
272 7 90 4 362
319 10 89 3.5 408
308 1 86 6 394
299 6 81 4.5 380
130 8 0 20 130
124 12 0 30 124

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Adorable You Branch Kyle 115 29.60 10.00 5.40
1 Panthera Tigre Chavez Jorge F. 118 5.80 4.00
7 Outonthebeach Velasquez Cornelio H. 120 3.80

[ryesteve]

From what I can tell there are basically 3 ratings and they rarely get a horse on top unless it is a favorite. Nothing too different from Sartin Phase 1 with an Early rating, a late rating, and a composite adding them up.



Except, as best as I've been able to figure out, for the first rating number, lower is better than higher... which is why adding it to the early speed number, where higher is better than lower, yields a composite that makes no sense at all.

[njcurveball]

Except, as best as I've been able to figure out, for the first rating number, lower is better than higherl.

Only after consulting the result charts is the direction confirmed!

It would be the same looking at other ratings as the #1 rating is not going to win every race, no matter the methodology.

I would love to have just 3 ratings to choose from in selecting just the winner of the race most of the time.

The game is not that simple and when analysis jumps back and forth to the point where seasoned handicappers are confused, the answer does not come from the numbers.

I would say Sartin and most of his teachers were also guilty of this at one time or another. Trying to backfit a result to make sense of inconsistent ratings.

Sartin's "best" spin was to say this was a NON linear approach. And you had to get the NUMBER ONE mentality out of your brain. Great guy, as was his teachers, but when they started removing horses that figured to make the winner come up higher in the ratings was the point where I stopped listening.

[ryesteve]

Only after consulting the result charts is the direction confirmed!
Aside from basing it on jdl's cryptic explanations, I think if you look at the 2 and 4, both who whom have huge numbers, it's pretty clear. Both of them quit really badly in their previous races... so the first number must be some sort of time-based late pace number, whereas the early pace number is fig-based.

Adding them together makes as much sense as trying to measure who's a better pitcher by creating a composite rating by adding ERA and strikeouts per 9 innings...

[njcurveball]

Aside from basing it on jdl's cryptic explanations, .

I dont know if I would try to do business attacking the people who are asking questions and then ridiculing them for not understanding something so simple.

I have to say that unless I missed something, there was another thread offering free ratings if someone could explain this and I haven't seen an answer in that thread either.

Anyone who has used a computer program knows that there are times they will get it right. It is more than the numbers needed to make money in this game.

If someone is selling numbers and claims to go along with it, this is a very tough crowd to simply reply "You speed handicappers and Sartin methodoligists just cannot grasp something this easy."

No one expects a card full of winners and my preference would be someone who hits two or three nicely priced horses over five or six favorites if I were buying numbers.

[banacek]

Only after consulting the result charts is the direction confirmed!

I would love to have just 3 ratings to choose from in selecting just the winner of the race most of the time..

:lol: Well, I tried previously to get a clear explanation to no avail. If they are not posted with some explanation, they are useless-at least let us know the Exacta Magic horses BEFORE the races!

The price is certainly fair and they may have some validity, but if its horseplayeru, then there needs to be some instruction. And there doesn't appear there is much action on the ebay auctions, so the prospective buyers must have similar concerns.

[jakew]

how do we play the picks in which order

top to bottom

or black

blue

orange

which way please for next time

[jonnielu]

From what I can tell there are basically 3 ratings and they rarely get a horse on top unless it is a favorite. Nothing too different from Sartin Phase 1 with an Early rating, a late rating, and a composite adding them up.

As for the methodology it seems to vary depending on the result. Perhaps if they post a card with actual selections and reasoning before hand it would clear things up.

The format is also confusing as instead of having program number, then morning line, then the ratings, they are all jumbled.

Looking at the example below, it appears #8 and #12 were throw-outs since foreign horses need at least 150, so that was a lil help although with morning lines of 20 and 30-1 I dont know how much they figured.

The winner #6 was ranked #8 in Early Speed, #9 in the next rating, and then #8 for composite. How anyone with these ratings would put money on that horse is beyond my comprehension.




9th -6fTurf

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

510 4 100 15 610
534 2 98 50 632
317 11 96 12 413
320 5 92 12 412
347 3 91 6 438
287 9 90 20 377
272 7 90 4 362
319 10 89 3.5 408
308 1 86 6 394
299 6 81 4.5 380
130 8 0 20 130
124 12 0 30 124

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Adorable You Branch Kyle 115 29.60 10.00 5.40
1 Panthera Tigre Chavez Jorge F. 118 5.80 4.00
7 Outonthebeach Velasquez Cornelio H. 120 3.80





The winner is also the 3rd ML choice, with a #1 (considering conditions of this race), rating in relation to the favorite, that the handicappers let go to 14-1.

I suppose that I could tell you chapter and verse about why this horse won, and there will be a never ending stream of them that will allow me to give you a similar example tomorrow and the next day. But, you aren't going to believe it anyway, because it is different from what you already believe. Their is only one way for your beliefs to change and that is by you changing them, not me.

I already know that the handicapper is generally not interested in changing any beliefs, no matter how many times he leaves that one horse out of whatever exotic he's trying to score on today. And besides, nobody cares for the idea that maybe they don't know everything about predicting which horse will win what race.

It's been 25 years since I delved into the mind of the average handicapper, and I thought that I would get an update, just in case anything may have changed after 25 years of "My $50,000 Year..", and "Dr. Sartin (Sartinology)", and it looks like the same old. It seems that ideas I have employed since the early 80's are still ahead of their time.

jdl

[ryesteve]

The winner is also the 3rd ML choice, with a #1 (considering conditions of this race), rating in relation to the favoriteWhy only compare to the favorite? for example, the #7 had a better rating than #6, and a better early speed # than the #6; so if the #7 is better early AND better late, why wouldn't that one be the pick?

[chickenhead]

why wouldn't that one be the pick?

Why would you pick the horse that finished 3rd? :bang:

Honestly, I have been inspired to create some ability ratings of my own. Here are the figs for the Preakness:

010 :jump: 10
0100010001010001110100 10010 :ThmbUp: 10100101001110011010010
1001010 :ThmbUp: 10101010
10100101010101010101010
100101010 10100101

If you can't figure it out, that's your problem, you must be an idiot. but I assure you it will have the super, cold.

[banacek]

Honestly, I have been inspired to create some ability ratings of my own. Here are the figs for the Preakness:

01010
0100010001010001110100 1001010100101001110011010010
100101010101010
10100101010101010101010
100101010 10100101



So chickenhead..from my reading of your ABILITY-C figures, your first choice is 3 with a 3-4 cold exacta?:lol:

[chickenhead]

these are calculated using a supercomputer I lease from Amazon. All I feed it is the VIN number off my truck, my weight at the previous year's summer solstice (in grams), the polar coordinates of the track in question, and my current account balance at Youbet. The program does the rest.

[banacek]

these are calculated using a supercomputer I lease from Amazon. All I feed it is the VIN number off my truck, my weight at the previous year's summer solstice (in grams), the polar coordinates of the track in question, and my current account balance at Youbet. The program does the rest.

As long as it doesn't use track variants!:)

[Yorker]

these are calculated using a supercomputer I lease from Amazon. All I feed it is the VIN number off my truck, my weight at the previous year's summer solstice (in grams), the polar coordinates of the track in question, and my current account balance at Youbet. The program does the rest.

Does this work for harness racing too?

[jonnielu]

:lol: Well, I tried previously to get a clear explanation to no avail. If they are not posted with some explanation, they are useless-at least let us know the Exacta Magic horses BEFORE the races!

The price is certainly fair and they may have some validity, but if its horseplayeru, then there needs to be some instruction. And there doesn't appear there is much action on the ebay auctions, so the prospective buyers must have similar concerns.

There is instruction, but it has a value:

Ability-X -Churchill Downs 5/17/2008 Saturday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+. 1st - 8fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

233 1 95 10 328
190 4 95 2 285
194 6 94 3.5 288
276 2 90 15 366
241 5 86 6 327
199 3 86 1.4 285


2nd -8.5fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

95 2 96 2 191
117 6 91 4.5 208
80 1 89 3 169
134 4 89 12 223
89 3 86 3.5 175
110 5 85 4 195


I notice here, that each high and low rating is paired according to early speed. With the slower pair #3, #5 being joined by the lower of the middle pair #1, and then the faster, or fastest of the fast pair #2, #6.

3rd - 5fTurf # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

325 3 99 1 424
310 7 97 15 407
289 2 96 3 385
338 5 95 12 433
344 6 92 10 436
263 1 92 3.5 355
224 4 85 15 309


4th - 5.5fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

322 4 100 5 422
297 1 97 2 394
319 6 97 4 416
313 2 96 12 409
285 3 94 1.6 379
236 5 88 8 324












5th - 6fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

339 3 101 6 440
387 6 100 30 487
349 2 98 3 447
309 5 95 5 404
320 4 95 4 415
399 1 94 15 493
319 7 91 5 410
264 8 89 4.5 353


6th -8.5fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

162 1 99 6 261
94 3 95 12 189
157 4 94 12 251
90 5 92 5 182
103 2 90 5 193
100 8 87 4 187
141 6 84 2.5 225
179 7 0 4.5 179


7th -8fTurf # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

151 5 96 4.5 247
125 2 93 12 218
53 8 91 5 144
57 6 90 2.5 147
81 4 87 3.5 168
78 7 87 3 165
80 3 85 10 165
95 1 85 4 180


8th - 6fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

341 6 96 15 437
346 4 95 3 441
368 9 91 15 459
293 3 91 12 384
258 7 90 4 348
327 1 89 8 416
265 8 89 5 354
336 5 89 6 425
275 2 88 6 363
348 10 88 10 436












9th - 6fD # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

264 5 104 5 368
250 3 99 2.5 349
292 1 97 8 389
239 7 93 3 332
271 4 93 10 364
246 6 93 4.5 339
263 2 88 4 351


10th - 8fTurf # POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

50 6 98 4 148
105 3 96 50 201
98 4 95 50 193
32 11 94 8 126 114 9 89 10 203

75 5 88 2.5 163
72 12 87 10 159
102 2 86 4 188


117 7 85 5 202
110 10 83 20 193
151 8 79 30 230



A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.

jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)

1st Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Claiming, $19,200, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 1M, Dirt.Off Time: 1:15 Start: 5 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:2., 4:5., 1:10, 1:23, 1:37 (2:2.9800, 4:5.9100, 1:10.8700, 1:23.9200, 1:37.7200)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Hour Queen Woods, Jr. Charles R. 118 7.00 3.20 2.40
4 Bonnie Bonita Borel Calvin H. 121 3.00 2.20
3 Sun Shower Mena Miguel 124 2.20
Pedigree: 6 - Hour Queen, Bay Filly, 4, by Gilded Time - Town Queen by Williamstown

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Exacta $22.60 6-4 $126,403
$2 Trifecta $40.80 6-4-3 $93,366
Owner: Bradley, Fred and William and Hurst, Carl
Trainer: William Bradley
Breeder: Carl Hurst, Fred Bradley &William Bradley (KY)
Also Ran: 5 - Capetown Evening, 2 - Laughwiththedevil
Scratched: Nothinbutblueskies

It's almost too simple to isolate these stuations and bet the trifecta. Seems to be fairly profitable though. Notice that the winner is the middle early speed, and the faster drops back.


2nd Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Claiming, $19,200, Open 3 yo's & up, 1 1/16M, Dirt.Off Time: 1:46 Start: 6 went. Good for all but 2,3. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:4., 4:8., 1:13, 1:38, 1:45 (2:4.9100, 4:8.8100, 1:13.1600, 1:38.7100, 1:45.4000)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Cultured Borel Calvin H. 117 6.80 4.00 2.60
5 Long Jump Bridgmohan Shaun 117 5.60 3.60
1 Stoney's Ladd Castanon Jesus Lopez 117 2.60
Pedigree: 3 - Cultured, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 3, by Touch Gold - Society Dream (FR) by Akarad (FR)

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Daily Double $38.00 6-3 $52,120
$2 Exacta $39.80 3-5 $222,626
$2 OU $3.00 UNDER 11 $245
$2 Superfecta $268.40 3-5-1-2 $51,872
$2 Trifecta $116.20 3-5-1 $149,223
Owner: Amerman Racing Stables LLC
Trainer: Paul J. McGee
Breeder: Amerman Racing LLC (KY)
Also Ran: 2 - Messa Nera, 4 - Stormtalk, 6 - Perry


I'd like to move up to the chart for this race, to point some things out on this easy tri and super.Early speed is a great indicator of finish order.

3rd Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance, $47,400, F (fillies) 3 yo, 5F, Turf.Off Time: 2:15 Start: 6 went. Good for all but 7. Won driving. Track: Firm Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:2., 4:6., 5:8. (2:2.6400, 4:6.2700, 5:8.6100)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 Birdgirl Mena Miguel 118 19.00 6.60 4.40
1 School Girl Castanon Jesus Lopez 118 4.80 3.40
4 Magic Tune Borel Calvin H. 118 5.80
Pedigree: 6 - Birdgirl, Dark Bay or Brown Filly, 3, by Stravinsky - Sign Here by Private Terms

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $439.00 6-3-6 (3 Correct) $21,153
$2 Daily Double $77.80 3-6 $14,279
$2 Exacta $85.20 6-1 $204,042
$2 OU $2.80 UNDER 13 $196
$2 Superfecta $1,510.40 6-1-4-2 $52,841
$2 Trifecta $709.00 6-1-4 $158,172
Owner: Right Time Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve Margolis
Breeder: Villiers Syndicate (KY)
Also Ran: 2 - Blitzing, 7 - Little Somethin, 5 - Amaretta's Way
Scratched: Excessive Heat


Perhaps, even at the short distances, we've been looking at higher rating @lower early speed. This is another example, #3 looks like the magic 320 rating here, but actually, at the shorter distance, you want more finish, like 340. #6 is a 344/92. Lower speed is always good on grass too, sometimes surprising at 5f, but consistently true. At higher early speed, you want a lower rating, like #2. #3 is actually too high and too fast.

4th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Claiming, $26,400, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 5 1/2F, Dirt.Off Time: 2:44 Start: 6 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:2., 4:5., 5:7., 1:04 (2:2.0800, 4:5.4400, 5:7.5600, 1:04.1000)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
2 Casey's Jet Trujillo Elvis 120 38.20 13.20 6.20
3 Tora McKee John 120 4.20 3.20
4 Superfly Girl Johnson Joe M. 120 4.40
Pedigree: 2 - Casey's Jet, Gray or Roan Mare, 5, by Five Star Day - Loading Dock D. B. by Hatchet Man

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $974.80 3-6-2 (3 Correct) $30,532
$2 Pick 4 $7,217.60 6-3-6-2 (4 Correct) $53,684
$2 Daily Double $170.60 6-2 $10,427
$2 Exacta $144.40 2-3 $229,259
$2 OU $2.60 UNDER 11 $284
$2 Superfecta $1,053.20 2-3-4-1 $62,991
$2 Trifecta $797.80 2-3-4 $171,566
Owner: Commonwealth Racing LLC
Trainer: James E. Baker
Breeder: Robert L McMichael & Colleen McMichael (OH)
Also Ran: 1 - Cat Splendor, 6 - Everything's Rosie, 5 - Showmethegreatone

Consistency, it is a key to hold. The slow pair (high/low rating) beats the fast pair, the other pair is in back. Nice super considering only a few pairs. #2 (lowest magic #) makes a nice winner too


5th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Claiming, $13,600, Open 3 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 3:16 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:1., 4:4., 5:7., 1:11 (2:1.4200, 4:4.6700, 5:7.4200, 1:11.2700)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
2 Captain Malory Melancon Larry 120 9.00 5.20 3.80
4 Twin Talk Troilo William D. 120 4.20 3.00
7 Aver Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph 120 4.60
Pedigree: 2 - Captain Malory, Chestnut Gelding, 9, by Navarone - Misuzannah by Miswaki

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $1,622.20 6-2-2 (3 Correct) $23,015
$2 Daily Double $218.00 2-2 $9,962
$2 Exacta $37.00 2-4 $336,907
$2 OU $3.60 UNDER 14 $243
$2 Superfecta $771.20 2-4-7-5 $110,248
$2 Trifecta $199.60 2-4-7 $276,560
Owner: Choctaw Racing Stable
Trainer: Lynn S. Whiting
Breeder: Robert Neff (KY)
Also Ran: 5 - Ulah Tyson, 8 - Ready's Rocket, 6 - Skip the Details, 1 - Pretty Swanky, 3 - Kite Falcon

Sometimes you have to wonder which magic numbers are the good ones, most of the time it is the slower ones, if you have some over 98 early, like #3. Every once in awhile, it goes according to early speed for the order, with those that aren't too fast early.


6th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Special Weight, $41,400, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 1 1/16M, Dirt.Off Time: 3:47 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:4., 4:8., 1:13, 1:39, 1:46 (2:4.2900, 4:8.1100, 1:13.3600, 1:39.3500, 1:46.1500)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 One Caroline Castanon Jesus Lopez 117 4.40 3.60 3.00
5 Secret Source Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph 117 5.60 3.80
8 Fair Rose Lanerie Corey J. 117 5.20
Pedigree: 7 - One Caroline, Gray or Roan Filly, 3, by Unbridled's Song - Powder by Broad Brush

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $770.20 2-2-7 (3 Correct) $33,785
$2 Daily Double $39.40 2-7 $16,586
$2 Exacta $27.80 7-5 $208,754
$2 OU $2.60 OVER 14 $227
$2 Superfecta $1,016.60 7-5-8-2 $65,632
$2 Trifecta $214.40 7-5-8 $178,102
Owner: G. Watts Humphrey, Jr.
Trainer: George R. Arnold, II
Breeder: Payson Stud Inc (KY)
Also Ran: 2 - No Warning, 6 - Miss Primetime, 3 - How Regal, 1 - Coquihalla, 4 - Crimson Hope

Looks like the idea of early speed holds up even when a first timer gets in the way.


7th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance Optional Claiming, $47,400, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 1M, Turf.Off Time: 4:18 Start: 7 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:4., 4:7., 1:12, 1:25, 1:37 (2:4.1100, 4:7.8100, 1:12.6500, 1:25.1500, 1:37.7100)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Put Away the Halo Melancon Larry 120 16.00 7.20 4.00
4 Gone Overboard Bridgmohan Shaun 120 5.20 3.20
6 Almonsoon Borel Calvin H. 120 2.80
Pedigree: 5 - Put Away the Halo, Chestnut Mare, 5, by Put It Back - Jolie's Lillian by Jolie's Halo

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $397.40 2-7-5 (3 Correct) $36,777
$2 Daily Double $37.40 7-5 $8,732
$2 Exacta $86.00 5-4 $198,794
$2 OU $2.40 OVER 12 $308
$2 Superfecta $1,951.60 5-4-6-3 $56,022
$2 Trifecta $270.40 5-4-6 $159,002
Owner: Broadwall Farm
Trainer: Lynn S. Whiting
Breeder: Arthur I. Appleton (FL)
Also Ran: 3 - Amature's Prize, 1 - Katerbug, 7 - Callie's Joy, 2 - Superb Ravi
Scratched: Classic Tiara

Comparison with the running line may be the best way to be sure if the rating shows tiring or run, I always assume tiring at higher speeds and that is consistently correct, but every once in awhile, one like this shows the reasons that you lean toward the larger consistencies while knowing that nothing is always 100%. Accepting that often seems simpler to me then going back to judging running lines. You would probably be ahead to just include one like #5 here in vertical exotics on the generality of the fastest horse
that frequently runs third.

8th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Claiming, $18,400, Open 3 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 4:51 Start: 10 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:1., 4:5., 5:8., 1:10 (2:1.6700, 4:5.8100, 5:8.2200, 1:10.8700)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Mystery Guest Bridgmohan Shaun 121 9.60 4.80 3.80
2 Fort Apache Star Lebron Victor 121 4.60 3.40
7 Igotitigotitgotit Rojas Christian 121 3.40
Pedigree: 8 - Mystery Guest, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 4, by Touch Gold - Meadow Mystery by Meadowlake

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $540.40 7-5-8 (3 Correct) $24,313
$2 Daily Double $42.20 5-8 $10,542
$2 Exacta $60.60 8-2 $297,888
$2 OU $9.40 ON 17 $250
$2 Superfecta $1,432.20 8-2-7-3 $114,668
$2 Trifecta $265.40 8-2-7 $248,552
Owner: Overbrook Farm
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Breeder: Adena Springs (ON)
Also Ran: 3 - Altered, 10 - Kanacatoose, 1 - Grand Traverse, 4 - Wannabeinclued, 6 - Mr. L. A., 5 - Glorious Cause, 9 - Lowthers Hill

The magic # comes in 6th behind the slowest horse, but this is another good argument for the range of early speed dictating the finish along the lines of the "run" ratings.


9th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Matt Winn S., Stakes, $100,000, Open 3 yo, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 5:22 Start: 7 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:1., 4:4., 5:6., 1:09 (2:1.4300, 4:4.4800, 5:6.4800, 1:09.4800)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Eaton's Gift Trujillo Elvis 119 6.00 4.20 2.60
6 Devereux Bridgmohan Shaun 119 4.80 2.80
7 Ling Ling Qi Castanon Jesus Lopez 117 2.60
Pedigree: 3 - Eaton's Gift, Bay Colt, 3, by Johannesburg - Kit's Girl by Carson City

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $345.00 5-8-3 (3 Correct) $16,848
$2 Daily Double $50.40 8-3 $13,692
$2 Exacta $38.60 3-6 $247,136
$2 OU $2.40 OVER 12 $227
$2 Superfecta $409.00 3-6-7-5 $70,507
$2 Trifecta $86.80 3-6-7 $192,505
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Breeder: Donarra Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Also Ran: 5 - Inner Light, 4 - Saratoga Seven, 1 - St. Joe, 2 - Georgetown


Okay, so how many knew to just add the fastest on the bottom of one super, and then the slowest on the bottom of the other super. Knowing that this is a Stake and horses are much more likely to run to their ratings? A few, I hope.

10th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance, $43,100, Open 3 yo's & up, 1M, Turf.Off Time: 5:54 Start: 11 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm Weather: Clear 73o
Fractions: 2:4., 4:8., 1:13, 1:25, 1:37 (2:4.4000, 4:8.5100, 1:13.4800, 1:25.6300, 1:37.9500)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Hard Strike Trujillo Elvis 113 7.20 4.00 3.00
2 Glee Club Borel Calvin H. 120 3.80 3.00
12 Valtrus Bridgmohan Shaun 120 6.80
Pedigree: 5 - Hard Strike, Chestnut Colt, 3, by Smart Strike - Cent Nouvelles by Storm Bird

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $210.20 8-3-5 (3 Correct) $47,484
$2 Pick 4 $2,899.80 5-8-3-1/5/13/14/15/16 (4 Correct) $68,953
$2 Pick 6 $1,137.80 2-7-5-8-3-1/5/13/14/15/16 (5 Correct) (Carryover: $10284) $5,620
$2 Daily Double $23.20 3-5 $47,093
$2 Exacta $28.20 5-2 $289,193
$2 OU $4.20 UNDER 21 $73
$1 S5 $1,319.90 5-2-12-6-11 $49,305
$2 Trifecta $315.00 5-2-12 $269,528
Owner: Martin Stables, Inc.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Breeder: Martin Stables Inc. (FL)
Also Ran: 6 - Rock Gold, 11 - Veiled Prophet, 7 - Gasconade, 10 - Rovic's Wealth, 9 - Angelouie, 8 - Kapak (GB), 4 - Emmett's Law, 3 - Diamond Lure
Scratched: Secret Stranger, Doctor Cal, Blue Lion, Route, Silver Mountain

I'm hoping that someone used the range of early speed to get this high 5 order right also, at least for the tri. If not study the range of early speed on this card and keep it in mind, you will likely get much better on finish order as you go. The consistency is there, and that makes the possibilities endless.

jdl