Sartin Energy Distribution

[jeebus1083]

Does anybody utilize this in their handicapping? And if so, how do you use it?

[njcurveball]

You need to pick a representative pace line that gives the horse a chance to repeat it today. If you do not have this, the energy number is almost insignificant.

For example, a horse who took the lead at the quarter and then lost by 20 lengths will have a very high energy number. That race has no shot to win today and many people point to the high energy number as the reason. As if a 20 length loss will put a horse in the winners circle.

Another mistake is taking a horse beat badly but making up a few lengths in the stretch, the typical, 10th by 20, 10th by 19, 10th by 19, 10th by 12 line. This horse also has no shot, but will have a low energy figure.

Automatically adjusted lines also cause a problem, since a distributed variant is not the norm for a track condition. For example, there is a headwind going into the first turn. The horses will run a slow first quarter, but usually they will run an average or better than average final quarter since the wind will be behind them.

If the race comes up slow, the last quarter is OVER adjusted. If it comes up fast, the first quarter is UNDER adjusted.

Having said all that, if you model correctly chosen pace lines for track, distance, and class, energy patterns emerge, not only for winners, but other exotic spots as well.

Some bets are "made" just by having one or two horses with the right energy profile for the race. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[46zilzal]

You need to pick a representative pace line that gives the horse a chance to repeat it today.
Incorrect. ANYONE who has had much history withe the system will tell you "THERE ARE NO RULES."

Using ONE pace line is asking for sample error and missing out completely on form cycles which, for these youngsters in the Triple Crown contests, is pivotal in understanding them.

At the heart of it is the prediction of BOTH how the horse NORMALLY re-produces it's energy distribution and how will it do that in today's match up. That usually requires a more in depth understanding than a single line.

[46zilzal]

Michale Pizzolla p. 76 Pace Makes the Race.

"Thoroughbred handicapping is much too subtle and complex to be reduced to simple rules. The chess master does not have one set of opening moves that he uses mechanically against each challenger, the champion golfer does not hit the same shot on each hole, the masterful attorney does not cross examine each witness in the same manner. Rather, the master of any endeavor adapts his approach to fit the circumstances which he faces, using special tools in special situations."

[richrosa]

Having said all that, if you model correctly chosen pace lines for track, distance, and class, energy patterns emerge, not only for winners, but other exotic spots as well.

Some bets are "made" just by having one or two horses with the right energy profile for the race. :ThmbUp:

Jim

This is probably the most significant usage of energy. If a horse continually runs the with the same energy profile and your model shows you that kind of profile never wins at the track/distance/surface you are examining, you can conclude that the horse is a throwout for win. What's interesting is that the same horse can fit the profile to place or show. Good modeling will tell you these things, and they are valuable.

[njcurveball]

Incorrect. ANYONE who has had much history withe the system will tell you "THERE ARE NO RULES."

.


ANYONE who hopes to pick WINNERS BEFORE the race needs the ability to pick a representative pace line.

But I don't think going further would help you understand since you seem to read one line and then go off on your interplanetary tangent.

The clarity of your posts is only due to the fact that the majority are posted AFTER the race and your paceline choices sometimes are just ridiculous.

Picking pacelines that give only one horse a chance to win the race is just an exercise in extra work. No sense looking at a pace graph when one horse has a large advantage in total energy due to a "shooting fish in the barrel" paceline choice.

Go back, reread my post, and find where I mentioned RULES.

I await your direct response to that direct question, but as usual you will muddy the thread with another intergalactic journey which has nothing to do with it.

[46zilzal]

Pizzolla mentions, and the serious student of Sartin recognizes, the following from Pace Makes the Race, p. 158.

How do we begin the journey to successful predictions and decisions? Again, there are no rules, but there are some things which you can do to move along. To those who must have a mechanical approach, I can only tell you that you are sentencing yourself to mere competence at BEST. One of my favorite quotes is attributed to Lao Tze, the compiler of the Tao Te Ching. He said, "When the great Way is lost, there arises codes of conduct and behavior."

[delayjf]

Check out some of the earlier posts on % early by Keilan, he uses % early and swears to its affectiveness. But he has some very interesting insights as to how to use it best. He has more experience using it successfully than anyone I know. Good luck.

[jasperson]

What I get from the dicussion of Sartin Energy Distribution is that some use it and others don't. It is just another tool to be used and how you use it in conjuction with other handicapping factors will determine if you are successful. My personal opinion is there isn't any one tool that will lead to success at the track. A friend of mine wondered why he lost a bet when his horse beat the winning horse in his last out. I told him did you check the weight shift and he said he never checked it. I normally did check weight shifts unless the 2 horses were in the same race and finished within a length of each other. In his case the shift was a plus 4 in favor of the winning horse. There is no holy grail of handicapping. We have tools and the way apply these tools determines the success or failure of our handicapping.

[46zilzal]

Check out some of the earlier posts on % early by Keilan, he uses % early and swears to its affectiveness. But he has some very interesting insights as to how to use it best. He has more experience using it successfully than anyone I know. Good luck.
So do I but at % median: same idea.

[oylinc]

I found that I started looking at Energy Distribution % to evaluate whether a horse can stretch out to a longer distance. Not used as a rule by any means but when a horse shows in the top 4 selections because the only paceline it has is 1 or 2 furlongs shorter than the others I definitely will consider for exotics if the Energy distribution matches the track profile. Or if energy distribution in much lower than track norm for the shorter distance it may be indication that the horse will run better at longer distance.

Bob

[DRIVEWAY]

You need to pick a representative pace line that gives the horse a chance to repeat it today. If you do not have this, the energy number is almost insignificant.

For example, a horse who took the lead at the quarter and then lost by 20 lengths will have a very high energy number. That race has no shot to win today and many people point to the high energy number as the reason. As if a 20 length loss will put a horse in the winners circle.

Another mistake is taking a horse beat badly but making up a few lengths in the stretch, the typical, 10th by 20, 10th by 19, 10th by 19, 10th by 12 line. This horse also has no shot, but will have a low energy figure.

Automatically adjusted lines also cause a problem, since a distributed variant is not the norm for a track condition. For example, there is a headwind going into the first turn. The horses will run a slow first quarter, but usually they will run an average or better than average final quarter since the wind will be behind them.

If the race comes up slow, the last quarter is OVER adjusted. If it comes up fast, the first quarter is UNDER adjusted.

Having said all that, if you model correctly chosen pace lines for track, distance, and class, energy patterns emerge, not only for winners, but other exotic spots as well.

Some bets are "made" just by having one or two horses with the right energy profile for the race. :ThmbUp:

Jim

Jim,

I could not agree more. However, doing what you suggest is difficult and time consumming.

One trick I used with Sartin based software SPEC, was to create pacelines. This was a big factor with lightly raced horses, shippers and new distances.
With experienced horses, many times I would look at multiple lines and project an average or median and move the fractions up/down based upon form cycle and or competition.

This allowed me to handicap based upon my own projections of a horses upcoming performance.

With all that you have identified above, I can only imagine what you would be able to do with your own projected lines.

[njcurveball]

Great points Driveway!

I find percent early to be more reliable, despite all of the Sartin advertising about %median being better. If they had accurated lengths behind measurements probably the reverse would be true. Other than horses on the lead, we can never be sure the lengths are accurate for the interior calls. Using small segments will magnify any error there.

Projected is very enticing, but very time consuming.

Jim

[InControlX]

njcurveball said: If they had accurated lengths behind measurements probably the reverse would be true. Other than horses on the lead, we can never be sure the lengths are accurate for the interior calls. Using small segments will magnify any error there.


Exactly!

Even if the spotter is dead-on accurate we always must contend with the following errors:
1. Lengths changes of a horse after the next highest position horse crosses a pole appears as summed to the next split... screwing up splits and pace calculated from conventional past performances. The move you thought was on the stretch could have been 2f back.
2. Lengths changes of a horse after the next highest position horse crosses the finish line are completely lost in conventional past performances.

This is not a criticism, this is about the only way to report the race short of the new triangulation tracking system data that's not available to my knowledge for handicappers.

We can arrive at accurate lengths, however, through Chart data analysis which restores the correct pace to the correct split, you just won't find this in the traditional PPs you can get your hands on, you've got to make your own.

ICX

[thelyingthief]

projections are dangerous: they result in lines that are not reality based, and assume a horse will do what it has NOT DONE BEFORE: this is not prognostication, it is clairvoyance.

to zilzal: i do not see where, in his post, the first respondent implies or invokes a "rule". he states that one must find a representative pace line, which, as we all know, is a product of analysis, experience, and insight. he may be interpreted as eschewing poor pace lines as a "rule", but no practitioner would willingly prefer a poor line to a good, if he can help it. although, sometimes a line will make a horse appear better than he in fact is, because of the company with which he ran. a pack animal will scurry to keep pace with the herd. still, here again, we deal with clairvoyance.

rules are learned, in every kind of endeavor, and then put aside, when judgment argues otherwise. without structure, there is no way to understand. without understanding there is no way to succeed. denial of structure and rule is tantamount to denying knowledge itself; and a neophyte will do far better adhering to "rules" than responding to his whims. it is always difficult to separate intuition from into-wishin', but in a horseplayer this seems the fundamental error, and indicates his is a confused, hopeless state of mind.

tlt

[delayjf]

So do I but at % median: same idea.
I agree, I am more comfortable using %median - the formula for %median takes into account the various distances of the final fraction - %early does not.

[njcurveball]

I agree, I am more comfortable using %median - the formula for %median takes into account the various distances of the final fraction - %early does not.


Can you explain this as you have thoroughly confused me.

% Early used 2nd call and 3rd fraction

% median uses 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fraction

The 3rd fraction computation for both is identical, so perhaps you are referring to the percentage used?

The problem with %median is that the first fraction beaten lengths can magnify any visual error in calling the chart. There are 3 calls and 2 computations in this calculation.

With %early there are only two calls and one calculation. It is also less sensitive to the run up distances which greatly impact first quarter times. And is also less sensitive to route races starting close to the first turn.

[Tom]

%E weighs the final fraction as one half the race, while %M weighs it one third.

Perhaps %M might be better suited to sprints/dirt, while %E might be better for turf and artificial surfaces?

[njcurveball]

%E weighs the final fraction as one half the race, while %M weighs it one third.



I am with you here Tom, but different distances are still weighed in those ratios.

For example. A mile race is 3/4 done at the second call. However a 5f race is 60% done (2nd call is t the 3/8 pole), A 6f race, 66.7%, a 7f race only about 57%.

There is nothing in the percent median calculation that I know of to take into account the different proportions.

*** computations corrected

[46zilzal]

I am with you here Tom, but different distances are still weighed in those ratios.

For example. A mile race is 3/4 done at the second call. However a 5f race is 80% done, A 6f race, 75%, a 7f race only about 57%.

There is nothing in the percent median calculation that I know of to take into account the different proportions.
2nd call at 5 furlongs is 3/8ths so that is 60% of the race
2nd call at 6 furlongs is 2/3 of the race or 66.6%
2nd call at 7 furlongs is 57.1%
2nd call at 8 furlongs is 75%

[njcurveball]

2nd call at 5 furlongs is 3/8ths so that is 60% of the race
2nd call at 6 furlongs is 2/3 of the race or 66.6%



Spot on! I was typing and talking to someone at the same time. Fast posts are usually incorrect, thanks for helping me out. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Yes, but total energy for %E is 50% 2nd call and 50% third fraction.
In %M, 3F is only 33% at all distances.

[46zilzal]

Yes, but total energy for %E is 50% 2nd call and 50% third fraction.
In %M, 3F is only 33% at all distances.
That is another reason that the latter is much more predictive.

[Tom]

That was my point to begin with - might the %E be more suited to turf and synth where late energy seems to be more important?

[njcurveball]

You guys make some very good points and now I have some more energy calculations to test with my database.

Thanks for bringing them up. :ThmbUp:

[delayjf]

In %M, 3F is only 33% at all distances.

If one wanted to split hairs, you could correctly proportion by the differences in the length of the third fraction. although, I'm not sure if would improve the application, but on the surface it would make sence.

[keilan]

Geez I don't know whether to grab another coffee or reach for the rum after reading this thread :cool:

[HUSKER55]

I have a friend who makes the product of choice for such auspicious occassions. He is held in high esteem and has been a solid comfort and joy to have had the pleasure of being acquaintened with of over the years. May I introduce Black Jack Daniels
husker55

:)

[andicap]

Does anybody utilize this in their handicapping? And if so, how do you use it?

If you really want to know how to use energy in a race, do a search on Keilan's name for his posts on energy -- were a while ago I'd say, several years.

[keilan]

Andy – u know what makes me laugh is that someone that should know better says the following “Perhaps %M might be better suited to sprints/dirt, while %E might be better for turf and artificial surfaces?”

I was using %E long before poly and am as capable with sprint races as I’ am with routes.

Then someone comments about the good points brought up in this thread concerning energy. Then to top it off he declares that he will test it with his database.

God have mercy

Tom / njcurveball you're good guys but stick to stuff that you have an idea about. jmo

[Tom]

Well excuuuuuse me!

[andicap]

Ah, good to see the old take no prisoners Keilan is back -- :jump:

Always reminds me of a saying Ron Ambrose used tho i'm sure it's not original with him.

"Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt."

Keilan is definitely correct about one thing: You CAN"T test %E in a database. The concept just doesn't lend itself to that kind of application or thinking.
Databases are rigid and tight. With energy you have to be flexible and creative. Which line(s) best represent what will happen today?
Are you looking for a low%E in relation to today's field, a medium one or a high one? (when I say %E, it is interspersable with %M.)
When is a horse with a seemingly too high %E the most likely winner?

[keilan]

When is a horse with a seemingly too high %E the most likely winner?


When the best horse in the field has a pace advantage. Another way of stating this is when the "pace projection" / actual pace is slower than he's previous runnings.

This is preciously the reason why data mining and track models lack any luster.

[Tom]

And why I do not use percent energy at all.:p

[andicap]

When the best horse in the field has a pace advantage. Another way of stating this is when the "pace projection" / actual pace is slower than he's previous runnings.

This is preciously the reason why data mining and track models lack any luster.

You know I wasn't asking those questions because I was looking for an answer -- they were more of a rhetorical variety, but hey, thanks for answering anyway. :p

My bottom line on %E/%M:

Despite what anyone on the board will tell you, there really is no ONE answer on how to use energy, just like there's no one solution for using pace figures. People who use energy tailor the figures to their own handicapping and their personal styles.

I go through periods where I use energy religiously and periods where I never use it at all. Depends upon my mood.

[delayjf]

Geez I don't know whether to grab another coffee or reach for the rum after reading this thread
Well what time of the day is it - what he hell, opt for the rum!! Throw in a little hawaiian punch and now you got yourself a hurricane. What do you say keilan, Got a little Captain in you?? :p

[46zilzal]

Keilan is definitely correct about one thing: You CAN"T test %E in a database. The concept just doesn't lend itself to that kind of application or thinking.

Yes you can via the early/late balance number versus the track standard for that distance.

[keilan]

Yes you can via the early/late balance number versus the track standard for that distance.


And zilly what are the track standards for;

Belmont
Saratoga
Santa Anita
Keeneland


Secondly describe how you filtered your data to arrive at this "track standard". Just note the header columns for each will suffice.

[keilan]

Well what time of the day is it - what he hell, opt for the rum!!
:p


I did :jump:

[46zilzal]

And zilly what are the track standards for;

Belmont
Saratoga
Santa Anita
Keeneland


Secondly describe how you filtered your data to arrive at this "track standard". Just note the header columns for each will suffice.
The standards I use are simply the early/late balances of the winner and there are calculated in ten day periods so as to be current. I don't play Kenneland, Anita.

i.e 6 furlong numbers are usually in the +10 range.

Don't use a database as it averages out short term trends.

[keilan]

The standards I use are simply the early/late balances of the winner and there are calculated in ten day periods so as to be current. I don't play Kenneland, Anita.

i.e 6 furlong numbers are usually in the +10 range.

Don't use a database as it averages out short term trends.


And the +10 range would be for all 6 furlong races?

[46zilzal]

And the +10 range would be for all 6 furlong races?
NOTHING is 100% sure, but the vast majority at most tracks I have followed, yes. Oaklawn and Hawthorne ran a little lower.

[keilan]

NOTHING is 100% sure, but the vast majority at most tracks I have followed, yes. Oaklawn and Hawthorne ran a little lower.




So there it is folks -- all winners regardless of age, sex and class horses run in the area of +10 range for 6 furlong races at the vast majority of tracks.

Now lets get together and think this through carefully -- what would be the point of studying %E or any type energy variable if it's constant at all sub-groups.

WTF do I know :blush:

[46zilzal]

Energy distribution is inherent to the animal not to sex age or the phases of the moon. In babies it decreases as they mature, but other than that it is part of the hardwired nature of the horse.

[keilan]

Energy distribution is inherent to the animal not to sex age or the phases of the moon.

re: 6furlong distance

Zilly -- if we can't agree that a cheap two year old filly has a far different %E range than a top level aged sprinter than this discussion is over. This is about as basic as it gets.

hey Jeff they're determined for me to re-visit the "captain" more than my liver will permit.

[46zilzal]

re: 6furlong distance

Zilly -- if we can't agree that a cheap two year old filly has a far different %E range than a top level aged sprinter than this discussion is over. This is about as basic as it gets.



You missed this: "In babies it decreases as they mature, but other than that it is part of the hardwired nature of the horse."

The biggest difference between a stakes sprinter and the other 99% of horses is their ability to adapt to almost any pace scenario, but 99% accounts for the majority of the realm I bet within.

[keilan]

Energy distribution is inherent to the animal not to sex age or the phases of the moon. In babies it decreases as they mature, but other than that it is part of the hardwired nature of the horse.


You edited your previous post and added in bold -- and that is also not correct, cheap aged claimers have a similar energy distribution to mdn claimers.

[46zilzal]

That is why they run races. I will stick with what I know works and you do the same. Horses are individuals not part of database averages.

[keilan]

You missed this: "In babies it decreases as they mature, but other than that it is part of the hardwired nature of the horse."

The biggest difference between a stakes sprinter and the other 99% of horses is their ability to adapt to almost any pace scenario, but 99% accounts for the majority of the realm I bet within.


I didn't miss anything u changed / edited your post.

The biggest difference between "a stakes sprinter" and the "cheaper variety" is their ability to carry their speed. It most generally terms it's called class. Believe it or not Zilly but %E measures speed and stamina, 2/3rds of my definition of class.

[keilan]

That is why they run races. I will stick with what I know works and you do the same. Horses are individuals not part of database averages.


Zilly I don't use data bases, weren't you the one who measures energy every ten days ;)

[46zilzal]

I have phrased it differently but the same idea: apportioning speed is the measure of class, but this only happens at the top so for the other 98-99% of horses so it is not as relevant.

[46zilzal]

Zilly I don't use data bases, weren't you the one who measures energy every ten days
No early/late numbers are updated every 10 days

[keilan]

I have phrased it differently but the same idea: apportioning speed is the measure of class, but this only happens at the top so for the other 98-99% of horses so it is not as relevant.

bolded -- I guess if you only wager on 1 or 2% of the races

Apportioning speed is what every horse does when racing regardless of quality.

Hey didn't Andicap recently state that "there really is no ONE answer on how to use energy". Well apparently that is true.

[keilan]

take care Zilly -- I need to stop this insanity

[delayjf]

Kielan - Got Rum?? ;)

[RichieP]

Geez I don't know whether to grab another coffee or reach for the rum after reading this thread :cool:

Rum