This years crop of 3 yo's

[Bruddah]

I have taken this excerpt from Andy Beyers article on the demise of the Thoroughbred. I stated in another thread before the Ky Derby ( no red boarding) that this was the weakest field of 3 yo's I had personally handicapped in 40 years. I was challenged to prove my Opinion with statistical data. Which I did using Mr. Beyers figures.

Since the race (Ky Derby) I have seen posts, by others, which NOW believe this was a weak field except for the first two finishers. There are two new members supporting my position. None other than Mr Beyer and the winners trainer, Rick Dutrow. Always happy to have members support my pre race opinions.

But the favorite was facing opposition that looked weak on paper and appeared even weaker as the race was run. Only Eight Belles mounted anything resembling a challenge, and she lost by 4 3/4 lengths. Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, acknowledged, "It just wasn't a strong Derby field other than our horse."


You gotta love it when your pre race OPINIONS are confirmed. :D

[ny0707ny]

I have taken this excerpt from Andy Beyers article on the demise of the Thoroughbred. I stated in another thread before the Ky Derby ( no red boarding) that this was the weakest field of 3 yo's I had personally handicapped in 40 years. I was challenged to prove my Opinion with statistical data. Which I did using Mr. Beyers figures.

Since the race (Ky Derby) I have seen posts, by others, which NOW believe this was a weak field except for the first two finishers. There are two new members supporting my position. None other than Mr Beyer and the winners trainer, Rick Dutrow. Always happy to have members support my pre race opinions.

But the favorite was facing opposition that looked weak on paper and appeared even weaker as the race was run. Only Eight Belles mounted anything resembling a challenge, and she lost by 4 3/4 lengths. Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, acknowledged, "It just wasn't a strong Derby field other than our horse."


You gotta love it when your pre race OPINIONS are confirmed. :D

I said it last fall the field was going to be weak with the exception of War Pass which didn't wind up running anyway. Saturday looked like a bunch of allowances horses trying to catch an impossible target.

My horse Colonel John had a bad start and some traffic so I give him some credit still for coming in 6th. He has big potential I think.

I would have given anything to see my favorite New York horse Naughty New Yorker at 6 years old in the Derby this year. He is only a stakes horse. My thinking was last year he can beat half this field. Now I know he could have.

[OTM Al]

I think Colonel John is a quality horse as is Gayego. There are some really nice turfers in the year, several who ran in the Derby as well as Why Tonto. The females look very good this year too. Remember too we lost a couple along the way like Crown of Thorns who looked to be good and should be back. It may be a down year for the Classic distance horse, but there are some nice ones in other areas.

[ryesteve]

I said it last fall the field was going to be weak
Then you got lucky with a foolish comment. No one can assess the Derby field during the fall of their 2yo season. What would you have said about last year's crop in September '06? Let's see... Curlin hadn't raced yet, Rags to Riches hadn't broken her maiden yet, Hard Spun hadn't raced yet, and Street Sense barely hit the board in a G3. You sure as hell wouldn't have been looking at this bunch and licking your chops in anticipation of the '07 Triple Crown races.

[MNslappy]

ummmmmmmmm, it's like May 5th ain't it? a little early to declare the whole 3 yr old classic crop a bust. once the cream rises to the top a little here and we can seperate the true top horses from the pack, I think the top 10 in this class as a whole will end up looking just as strong or stronger than the top 10 from last year. patience, grasshoppers! sheesh, let's at least give these guys until the August races to prove themselves.

[ny0707ny]

Then you got lucky with a foolish comment. No one can assess the Derby field during the fall of their 2yo season. What would you have said about last year's crop in September '06? Let's see... Curlin hadn't raced yet, Rags to Riches hadn't broken her maiden yet, Hard Spun hadn't raced yet, and Street Sense barely hit the board in a G3. You sure as hell wouldn't have been looking at this bunch and licking your chops in anticipation of the '07 Triple Crown races.

I made my judgement on their 2 year old races and how they looked running. I do it every year. It was not a foolish comment since it turned out to be right on.

[ny0707ny]

ummmmmmmmm, it's like May 5th ain't it? a little early to declare the whole 3 yr old classic crop a bust. once the cream rises to the top a little here and we can seperate the true top horses from the pack, I think the top 10 in this class as a whole will end up looking just as strong or stronger than the top 10 from last year. patience, grasshoppers! sheesh, let's at least give these guys until the August races to prove themselves.

Only horses with talent get better though :lol: Let's hope someone steps up big this year though.

[Shenanigans]

I have taken this excerpt from Andy Beyers article on the demise of the Thoroughbred. I stated in another thread before the Ky Derby ( no red boarding) that this was the weakest field of 3 yo's I had personally handicapped in 40 years. I was challenged to prove my Opinion with statistical data. Which I did using Mr. Beyers figures.

Since the race (Ky Derby) I have seen posts, by others, which NOW believe this was a weak field except for the first two finishers. There are two new members supporting my position. None other than Mr Beyer and the winners trainer, Rick Dutrow. Always happy to have members support my pre race opinions.

But the favorite was facing opposition that looked weak on paper and appeared even weaker as the race was run. Only Eight Belles mounted anything resembling a challenge, and she lost by 4 3/4 lengths. Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, acknowledged, "It just wasn't a strong Derby field other than our horse."


You gotta love it when your pre race OPINIONS are confirmed. :D

At least he acknowledged that. :ThmbUp:

[ryesteve]

It was not a foolish comment since it turned out to be right on.Whether you were right or not has no bearing on whether or not it was a foolish comment. This is similar to the argument that the outcome of a wager doesn't necessarily define whether or not it was a smart wager.

So regardless of how this crop turns out, nobody had enough information to make any kind of assessment 8 months ago, so yes, any opinion offered at that point was a foolish comment.

[ny0707ny]

Whether you were right or not has no bearing on whether or not it was a foolish comment. This is similar to the argument that the outcome of a wager doesn't necessarily define whether or not it was a smart wager.

So regardless of how this crop turns out, nobody had enough information to make any kind of assessment 8 months ago, so yes, any opinion offered at that point was a foolish comment.

I had people also tell me that you can't tell if the horse looks fit and going to run a big race before postime.
I had people tell me you can't tell a horse that has a lot of potential either.

Whatever you want to believe. It has no bearing on what I think. I spotted some really good horses that turned out to be good.

Rutherienne - probably will win Breeders Cup this year. Great turf filly. She never got mentioned online really until latley.
Lava Man - one of CAs best
Naughty New Yorker- still racing a 6 best ny stakes horse. The rest are long retired from that year.
War Pass - big potential injury got him
Hard Spun - 2nd in Derby. loved and saw his heart from first race Should have won Derby.
Colonel John - best of the worst has big potential I think. You can check up on this later this year and see if I am correct or not.

[asH]

would some one rate the crop of 3 year olds in the last 5 years, list the most notatable horses out of that crop and how they finished in that years derby.

thanks

[ryesteve]

I had people also tell me that you can't tell if the horse looks fit and going to run a big race before postime.
Which has absolutely NOTHING to do with assessing an entire crop of 3yos before half of them have even set foot on the track yet.

[ny0707ny]

Which has absolutely NOTHING to do with assessing an entire crop of 3yos before half of them have even set foot on the track yet.

I assess the horses from the time they first race at 2 years old. The ones that don't race as a 2 year old, I wait until their first race at 3. If I don't see their races, I go by the past performances and also the comments of their races.

The horses this year raced at 2, and that is when I started forming opinions about them.

Im not here to prove anything. This argument is getting pointless.:bang:

[ghostyapper]

Here we go again. Every year after the derby its the "weakest crop of 3yo in a long time" nonsense.

Heard the same crap last year after street sense won the derby. How'd that crop turn out?

[ny0707ny]

Here we go again. Every year after the derby its the "weakest crop of 3yo in a long time" nonsense.

Heard the same crap last year after street sense won the derby. How'd that crop turn out?

I never said we had a weak crop in the past. I think this is the first time I said it since 2002 when I followed the Derby regularly.

The crop last year was strong. We got Curlin , Hard Spun , and Street Sense. I didn't pick Curlin to win Derby since I thought he was too green but I figure he would come in money at best. He came in 3rd I think. Any Given Saturday won some big races also after Derby. Tiago also steped it up. It was a good crop last year and it made for a fun Derby.

My pick out of the bunch this year is Colonel John still. If he can't win on the dirt he will be very good I think on the non-dirt tracks in California.

[Marshall Bennett]

Its difficult to judge them anymore the way they flip flop between track surfaces . By the time the derby rolls around , seems like all but a few have a bad race under their belt . Who knows what the polycrap dwellers might have done had they began on and stayed on dirt .

[ny0707ny]

Its difficult to judge them anymore the way they flip flop between track surfaces . By the time the derby rolls around , seems like all but a few have a bad race under their belt . Who knows what the polycrap dwellers might have done had they began on and stayed on dirt .

Yeah that has made it harder this year for sure. You can still go by race comments and how tough the horses are. Horses that look like they love racing. I use that all the time in just regular races.

But you won't know if that can translate to the dirt surfaces. CJ did have a big work on dirt so lets hope he can deliver the next time bigger. He can always stay in CA if he can't handle the dirt.

[ryesteve]

The ones that don't race as a 2 year old, I wait until their first race at 3.
Damn... and here I was hoping you could tell us how strong the 2010 Derby is shaping up...

[Bruddah]

ummmmmmmmm, it's like May 5th ain't it? a little early to declare the whole 3 yr old classic crop a bust. once the cream rises to the top a little here and we can seperate the true top horses from the pack, I think the top 10 in this class as a whole will end up looking just as strong or stronger than the top 10 from last year. patience, grasshoppers! sheesh, let's at least give these guys until the August races to prove themselves.

before the race(s) are run. I also said (which brought ire) before he ran his first Race, that the Green Monkey would never break his maiden. Caught many slings and arrows in that humble opinion. Where were the rock throwers afterwards. I think, they were seen jumping on the Band wagon, later.

Just like any horse race, the handicapper needs to take a stand, based on information before the race. Only three outcomes possible; either your 100% correct (winner), 100% wrong (loser) or sometimes you hit inbetween. Actually, this year, I was inbetween. I took a stand against BB because of his post position, odds and # of races. He was by far the best on paper, but I went looking for value in a longshot, based on running style and late closing numbers. Visionaire ran like a PIG. I deserved to lose that $200.

Now I am Red Boarding. I did have $5 exacta in a 4 horse box. (I Know, I know...don't ever box) but heck, it saved my butt and my new Bodog account has a nice balance, despite my semi faulty handicapping.

I started my original thread asking, "What if we have a Triple Crown Winner" to get some intelligent response. Instead I got slings, arrows and challenges to prove my opinion that this was a weak crop of 3yo's. If Theories are based on quatatative assumptions, why should lesser thoughts (opinions) be challenged as if one is forming new laws for horse racing?

Meanwhile, for those wishing to see the race run, or the crop defined later in the year, it's just your opinion. I am not going to ask that you prove it statistically at this point. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I was challenged to prove my Opinion with statistical data.You weren't challenged. You were asked politely to explain how you came to your opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

And this whole "this is the weakest crop of 3yos" is getting way overhyped, to the point where it is probably WRONG. When too many people start to agree on something, it's usually time to run the other way....

Is the crop really that weak, or is Big Brown really that strong?

On the one hand, a person uses Beyer figures to "prove statistically" that something is "right," but on the other hand, we have thread after thread of people disparaging speed figures, and Beyer Speed figures especially.

Thus, I will stand by my opinion that this whole "crop weakness" theory is still unfounded and premature, with apologies to Bruddah of course, and only because he tends to get overly sensitive whenever I post in one of "his" threads.

[Bruddah]

And this whole "this is the weakest crop of 3yos" is getting way overhyped, to the point where it is probably WRONG. When too many people start to agree on something, it's usually time to run the other way....

Is the crop really that weak, or is Big Brown really that strong?

On the one hand, a person uses Beyer figures to "prove statistically" that something is "right," but on the other hand, we have thread after thread of people disparaging speed figures, and Beyer Speed figures especially.

Thus, I will stand by my opinion that this whole "crop weakness" theory is still unfounded and premature, with apologies to Bruddah of course, and only because he tends to get overly sensitive whenever I post in one of "his" threads.

I won't even ask you to prove it using facts to quantify your position. Heck, you aren't expressing a Theory, just stating you humble opinion. Again, I am not challenging or even asking you to prove your OPINION. Because you can't, using anyone's numbers to back up your OPINION.

[PaceAdvantage]

I won't even ask you to prove it using facts to quantify your position. Heck, you aren't expressing a Theory, just stating you humble opinion. Again, I am not challenging or even asking you to prove your OPINION. Because you can't, using anyone's numbers to back up your OPINION. There is no proving my opinion until at least the year is over, just as there is no PROVING your opinion until the same amount of time has passed. You might have backed up your opinion, but nothing has been proven yet. It's still way too early in the season.

[Bruddah]

There is no proving my opinion until at least the year is over, just as there is no PROVING your opinion until the same amount of time has passed. You might have backed up your opinion, but nothing has been proven yet. It's still way too early in the season.

and it's a heck of a lot more than you have done with yours. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

and it's a heck of a lot more than you have done with yours. :DBut my opinion is simply that YOUR opinion is currently unfounded and premature.

I haven't stated an opinion as to whether or not the crop is weak, strong or just plain in the middle. Thus, there is no need for me to back up or explain my opinion, since in this case, I haven't formed one yet....

[Bruddah]

when you decide to jump on the Band Wagon at the end of the year, it will be full. You just may have to walk the rest of the way by yourself. You see, we have all ready picked up Mr Beyer and Mr Dutrow and many others, since Saturday. Oh O.K., Beyer and Dutrow may have held that Opinion before the race, but they didn't make it Public until afterwards. :lol:

[asH]

would someone who thinks this crop is a bad one please list the most notatable horses out of the individual crops of the last 5 years, also how they finished in that year's derby.

thanks
sidebar
PA-disparage, or offer another opinion based on conclusion. Conclusions derived by reading the thread itself.

[jonnielu]

Its difficult to judge them anymore the way they flip flop between track surfaces . By the time the derby rolls around , seems like all but a few have a bad race under their belt . Who knows what the polycrap dwellers might have done had they began on and stayed on dirt .

Their relative quality is just as easily judged as it always has been, to do so you simply turn to an old but valid method called class. Still, the all time champion as a general indicator.

In February, this indicator put 23 horses on the list as better then the rest of the crop. BTW - the crop is the crop, it is neither weak nor strong, it simply is what it is, 3YO's in development.

End of the day on March 29th, there were two horses occupying the top of the quality list with a gap between them and the rest. War Pass and Big Brown.

Does this mean a weak crop? No, it is no weaker then the crop of '73 or any other. With relative quality fully revealed, it is now a question of individual ability, and the development of that ability, except that Big Brown has answered more of these questions at this point, then any other in the crop. While it still must be assumed that he is under development, he has displayed an ability that may be unbounded by the distances he will yet have to conquer.

Does this mean a weak crop? No, it means that we have one in the crop that has shown ability that would be very good for a race like the Kentucky Derby. Because two weeks earlier, the other high quality contender displayed that he is forked for the distances up coming. The rest of the crop has a few that may yet develop their abilities for these distances.

Come Derby day, half of the February list goes into the gate at Churchill, not a bad group, or a bad crop, because quality must still be developed well for these distances, and there can always be one or two that just possess ability in amounts that no human being can screw up.

For those that like numbers, mine are indicative of ability. Big Brown went into the gate with a "9". Tale of Ekati was "15". The next two best numbers were Smooth Air, "32" and Gayego, "38".

Now, it gets up to numbers that covered the board for last years Derby with Anak Nakal at "49", Z Fortune at "54", Court Vision at "55", Adriano at "58" and the only one in that range that is "slow" enough to finish well is Recapture the Glory, at "59". Another horse that was "slow" enough to finish well, Eight Belles "69".

Last year's crop handed out great lessons on how best to run a 1 1/4 distance, for any who viewed with an open mind. Curlin had it down best, and still does with no horse yet that has been able to pull him out of his zone. He "54" beat Lawyer Ron "52" with his fluid run. Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun were not able to carry their speed to the point that it would take to burn Curlin out.

Big Brown went into the gate at Churchill with a "9" and ran a bigger circle around this years crop then what he did at GP. If you want to focus on his feet, remember that he did that with his feet as they are. A horse with a heart stronger then her ankles has run herself to death trying to stay with this horse.

If this horse stays healthy, you have an opportunity to learn everything about horse racing that Andrew Beyer missed in 1973.

I don't mean that to sound or be condescending, but I assume that we are all students of the game here, assigning Big Brown's success to a bad crop of 3YO's, might be like keeping the blinkers on for another 30 years.

jdl

[Bruddah]

Wheewww Bruddah, that was quite a dissertation and a real mouthful. Congratulations on your well thought out and quantatative OPINION. ;)

[OTM Al]

I'll say it again but more specifically. It is a weak crop in terms of male horses that are ready to run a mile and a quarter in May on the dirt. If that is all that counts to you, so be it. However, there are some pretty good looking horses for other distances and surfaces and of female gender and perhaps for later times. We don't call it a bad crop if there are a lack of good fillies. We don't call it a bad crop if there are a lack of good turfers. Only if there are a lack of male horses able to run a mile and a quarter on dirt in May. Sounds pretty narrow to me.

[Bruddah]

O.k., so my vision and question was focused on a narrow objective. The Ky Derby field. This was the best of the known 3 yo crop "racing" in the Premier event for 3 yo's. My bad, gee, how could I have been so narrow minded in expressing my opinion? Shame on me forever and ever. :lol:

I wasn't trying to educate the masses with my initial question of "What if we have a Triple Crown Winner. Nor, did I express a view point about any particular runner or outcome. I just remarked in my 40+ years of handicapping, this was the worst group, I had ever handicapped. I was challenged to prove and quantify my opinion. I did so with numbers which I have been very effective using since 1992. You numbers guys may have or may not have improved on them since those days. I don't know. The Beyer figures certainly have evolved since their beginning. They are a work in progress and many handicappers still refer to them for specific areas of handicapping and comparison. Besides, I don't have access to anyone else's numbers(Jonnileu's, Cj's, PA's or yours) no matter how much more predicative they claim to be. Besides, I don't want to go back to 1992 and re-do my work based on yours or anyone elses numbers. Beyers are part of the Public Domain. I have found them very prdictive and indicative of the strength of the Ky Derby field and early crop of 3 yo's. That's where I use them. I didn't exclaim my method or their virtues in my thread. I didn't attempt to write any Universal Law of Equine Handicapping. I simply stated an opinion and asked a question.

Gee fellas my bad! I will use a more liberal, world wide, open to any interpretation questions, in the future. I know you fellas will do the same in any opinions you may have. :lol: :rolleyes:

[OTM Al]

With synth tracks, I'm not sure the old Beyer standards of 100+ figs mean what they used to with so many preps now on those surfaces. Mid 90s when on synth seem to mean just about as much.

In past years too, the derby would not be crammed with horses who were only there because they could be. It seems a greater number were entered because owners thought they could win.

I just find it odd when we complain so much that the only thing the general public pays attention to is the TC that that very thing is all we seem to judge the quality of the class on. I understand it is the premier event, but the way you get in it certainly does not guarantee the premier horses, especially when you get 2 basically guranteed starting spots from something like the Delta Jackpot.

Like I said, I think there are some very good turfers out there this year and the fillies are spectacular. The Oaks was a far bigger mystery to me than the Derby this year, which I agree was pretty muddled, in part due to what I wrote in the first paragraph.

Yes, you asked a question and here is my answer. Its weak in respect to classic distances on dirt, yes, but its pretty strong in other areas. Statistically speaking, such occurances are bound to happen. Does that make it bad? I don't think so unless classic distances on dirt are the most important to you. personally I'm rooting for a monster turfer to come along one of these days and go over and nail some of the European classics

[Bruddah]

I hope yours and all other handicappers are sucescful in what your searching for, using your METHOD(S) of choice. I appreciate your well thought out opinions and response. :)