HARLEM ROCKER - BIG BROWN'S BIGGEST NEMESIS?

[menifee]

This was a nice race. He received a 106 for this race. I hope they run him in the Preakness. I know it was a small field and he towered over the competition, but J Be K is a nice sprinter and he went by him very quickly. This is a good horse and a nice horse came out of the Withers a few years ago and won the Preakness...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8kYft1wY3ls


http://youtube.com/watch?v=TcC3hCMoUFQ

[Stevie Belmont]

Harlem Rocker's last race was impressive. Real nice stride and gobbled ground to win. He looks like Big Browns biggest threat right now. He looked a lot better then everyone who finished behing Eight Belles.

[broadreach]

Good win. Looked to be struggling on turn then picked up strong.

[FunkyMonkey]

I think he's being pointed to canada's version of the triple crown...so, unless things change he's unlikely to run against BB any day soon. Either way, BB would probably crush him. just my humble opinion.

However, this raises an interesting potential topic of discussion:

Excluding the 3 YOs who have already run in a major stakes race, is there anybody out there (likely undefeated in ALW company and/or minor stakes) that might be a potential late blooming 3yo that can challenge for top honors? Just wondering whether anybody has been following any 3yos currently under the radar...

[Bruddah]

I touted Tomcito the Peruvian horse earlier. He is a distance runner and could possibly give BB a challenge in the the Belmont. Eventually, BB is due a "bounce" and it just might be in the Belmont. If so, Tomcito, if entered could very well upset. This is an early longshot opinion. but, if it happens, it won't be considered "red boarding". :lol:

[ny0707ny]

I think he's being pointed to canada's version of the triple crown...so, unless things change he's unlikely to run against BB any day soon. Either way, BB would probably crush him. just my humble opinion.

However, this raises an interesting potential topic of discussion:

Excluding the 3 YOs who have already run in a major stakes race, is there anybody out there (likely undefeated in ALW company and/or minor stakes) that might be a potential late blooming 3yo that can challenge for top honors? Just wondering whether anybody has been following any 3yos currently under the radar...

I would like to know also if anyone knows of anyone. I think out of the Derby crop though Colonel John still has the most potential. IF he can win big on dirt. He is bread for longer distances I think for sure.

[OTM Al]

Tomcito may be inetersting come Belmont time. Casino Real is on the property as well and we know what his siblings did the last two years in the race (though Jazil's was a fairly weak renewal)

[ny0707ny]

I didn't think much of Tomicto. He would have to get much better.

[OTM Al]

Could have said the same thing about Birdstone a couple years ago too. If Big Brown gets attacked the way Smarty Jones did, it is just such a horse that will come down the lane with a nice consistant pace.

[onefast99]

Could have said the same thing about Birdstone a couple years ago too. If Big Brown gets attacked the way Smarty Jones did, it is just such a horse that will come down the lane with a nice consistant pace.
Attacked? Elliott set unheard of fractions, SJ didnt have the tools that BB has. he can come home in front or run them down if need be. BB is by far the best of this years group no one will touch him, no one.

[ny0707ny]

Attacked? Elliott set unheard of fractions, SJ didnt have the tools that BB has. he can come home in front or run them down if need be. BB is by far the best of this years group no one will touch him, no one.

Smarty Jones if I remember went too fast during the first part of that race. Nobody was near him. He should have went much slower and have some left for the end run. Birdstone was nothing that great, it is just that he won off Smarty Jones tiring out.

[OTM Al]

I'm not going back to that argument but I will just say Eddington and leave it at that.

[classhandicapper]

Harlem Rocker's last race was impressive. Real nice stride and gobbled ground to win. He looks like Big Browns biggest threat right now. He looked a lot better then everyone who finished behing Eight Belles.

I hate to say something like this right now, but I think Eight Belle's 2nd had as much to do with the fact that none of the colts moved forward and reached an "average" level of performance the way you would expect as it did with Eight Belle's performance. She sort of defaulted in by just being a very good filly (it was a terrible loss though). :(

[cj]

I'm not going back to that argument but I will just say Eddington and leave it at that.

I mentioned the same thing in another thread...this is from an NBC article I found for those with apparently short memories on this subject:

Smarty’s reputation as one of the strongest Triple Crown candidates in years worked against him, as both Rock Hard Ten and Eddington pressured him in the early stages of the 1 1/2-mile marathon, the longest of the three Triple Crown races.“We thought the only way we could beat Smarty Jones was to bring the race at him,” said Mark Hennig, trainer of Eddington, who finished fourth, a dozen lengths behind the winner.

The tactic worked, though not for those who employed it. Smarty Jones withstood challenges from Eddington and Rock Hard Ten after he stuck his nose in front halfway up the backstretch, then he put them away turning for home.

[Semipro]

Could have said the same thing about Birdstone a couple years ago too. If Big Brown gets attacked the way Smarty Jones did, it is just such a horse that will come down the lane with a nice consistant pace.Baily may come out of retirement and convince Bob Black jack's connections he can win so he can wreck BB so he can't win the triple crown. He Damn sure used his horse to insure Smarty didn't do it. I lost alot of respect for him personnally in this race because his intent was clear to me and I don't think he could stand the thought of a Jockey like Stu winning the Triple Crown and there was some others in on the conspiracy.

[onefast99]

I mentioned the same thing in another thread...this is from an NBC article I found for those with apparently short memories on this subject:

[/b]
SJ didnt have what BB has, ability to sit and let the rabbits cut each other to shreds. This is one smart horse who has won 4 straight and is getting better with each race. SJ was a tired horse vs Eddington and Birdstone and company. Not the same set-up at all. Elliott could of let Hennigs horse go, Hennig wasnt going to win the race he just thought it would be nice to wear out SJ. A move by a real jack of a trainer. Everytime I see Hennigs horses in big races with no shot to win he employs the same tactics. A one dimensional trainer at best.

[cj]

SJ didnt have what BB has, ability to sit and let the rabbits cut each other to shreds...

Actually, I think he did, which is why the ride was so bad in my opinion.

[Pace Cap'n]

The fact that Bailey will not discuss the race says it all for me.

[Norm]

I was just reviewing the replay and chart of the Withers. Harlem Rocker went the mile in 1:34 2 while Big Brown's mile in the Derby was 1:36 2. Granted that Big Brown gave away a lot of ground on both turns not to mention breaking from post 20. But, I would suspect that Harlem Rocker will not be left in the dust. Second money in the Preakness is not a small prize and anything can happen in a horse race. Do they allow quinella wagering at Pimlico ? :)

[Semipro]

SJ didnt have what BB has, ability to sit and let the rabbits cut each other to shreds. This is one smart horse who has won 4 straight and is getting better with each race. SJ was a tired horse vs Eddington and Birdstone and company. Not the same set-up at all. Elliott could of let Hennigs horse go, Hennig wasnt going to win the race he just thought it would be nice to wear out SJ. A move by a real jack of a trainer. Everytime I see Hennigs horses in big races with no shot to win he employs the same tactics. A one dimensional trainer at best.TOTALLY DISAGREE

[OTM Al]

SJ didnt have what BB has, ability to sit and let the rabbits cut each other to shreds. This is one smart horse who has won 4 straight and is getting better with each race. SJ was a tired horse vs Eddington and Birdstone and company. Not the same set-up at all. Elliott could of let Hennigs horse go, Hennig wasnt going to win the race he just thought it would be nice to wear out SJ. A move by a real jack of a trainer. Everytime I see Hennigs horses in big races with no shot to win he employs the same tactics. A one dimensional trainer at best.

When Big Brown gets to 8-8-0-0 then lets talk, though I wouldn't be surprised if he never even runs 8 races.

<$%^# I'm talking about this and I said i wasn't going to>

Purge was the speed of the race and went out front immediately with Rock Hard Ten right behind and Smarty in 3rd. This is exactly the style of these horses, so nothing wrong here. Smarty got into 2nd and engaged Purge and put him away quickly. Then Rock Hard Ten came after him. He could have held off by these arguements but he moved then. I don't find that odd by this horse either. Smarty put him away as well. Then, going into the turn here comes Eddington. This is inexplicable. I expected this horse to challenge, but not until the stretch. He was summarily dispatched. When the 4th challenge came, there was nothing left. I have never seen a race in which a horse has faced 3 separate challenges and put them all away. Purge was last by a lot and Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, who would both go on to be Grade 1 winners in big races, were 11 lengths behind at the end. It was a mugging plain and simple by a jock who had lobbied hard to get the horse for the TC away from Elliott. Rock Hard Ten wasn't going to win this race. He was still on the green side at the time but Eddington was a legitimate horse for the win and was not given that chance.

Of course the point to all this is, is that this is the way that Big Brown can be beaten. Nobody should come near him in the Preakness barring injury, which is why Dutrow's comments sound so fishy. We will likely see both Tomcito, who shows the ability to keep plugging at longer distances, and Casino Real who, despite his lack of experience certainly is bred for the distance of the Belmont.

[Stevie Belmont]

Tomicito is a stiff....

[Stevie Belmont]

I hate comparing horses, but Smarty Jones was in a class by himself and he would have smoked everyone in this derby. And yes he could rate. He was usually slightly off the pace.

In the Belmont he refused to settle, nervous animal that day and he was a tired horse and still almost won.

People always knock the ride. I have spoken to Stewy and he knows he did the best he could. They came at him, but like I said the horse was a nervous wreck that day and refused to settle like in the Derby and Preakness.

[CyberBet]

[QUOTE=Stevie Belmont]I hate comparing horses, but Smarty Jones was in a class by himself and he would have smoked everyone in this derby. QUOTE]

Sorry but that is :lol:.

Smarty Jones should never have even been in Kentucky Derby that first Saturday in May.

If you remember back the 2001 foal crop in Kentucky was devastated by what turned out to be something the mares were eating in the fields, fungus or something like that growing on the bluegrass.
We are talking a loss of nearly half of the blue blood thoroughbreds born that year. Correct my figures but I believe they hold fairly close to half. At one point early that year some farms had reported over 75% miscarriages. I remember a report that Coolmore had lost ten foals in one weekend.

I can honestly say I don't think Smarty Jones would have even been in the Derby had the 2001 crop not been so devastated. He is not even mentioned by me when talking about the great horses and honestly never will but it's just an opinion.

[Stevie Belmont]

Uhh...Ok



[QUOTE=Stevie Belmont]I hate comparing horses, but Smarty Jones was in a class by himself and he would have smoked everyone in this derby. QUOTE]

Sorry but that is :lol:.

Smarty Jones should never have even been in Kentucky Derby that first Saturday in May.

If you remember back the 2001 foal crop in Kentucky was devastated by what turned out to be something the mares were eating in the fields, fungus or something like that growing on the bluegrass.
We are talking a loss of nearly half of the blue blood thoroughbreds born that year. Correct my figures but I believe they hold fairly close to half. At one point early that year some farms had reported over 75% miscarriages. I remember a report that Coolmore had lost ten foals in one weekend.

I can honestly say I don't think Smarty Jones would have even been in the Derby had the 2001 crop not been so devastated. He is not even mentioned by me when talking about the great horses and honestly never will but it's just an opinion.

[CyberBet]

Back on topic.


I truly believe we are about to witness the next TC winner. I thought the same about Afleet Alex and Point Given before they took the track in Kentucky. They did not get it done due to horrid rides IMO.
Big Brown has dodged the same fate by his impressive performance Saturday. I think he is the best chance we have since Charasmatic.

Speaking of, does anyone else get slightly annoyed when you still hear of the Barbaro story ad nausuem? In my mind what happened to Charismatic was much more tragic and heartbreaking. Not really sure why it bothers me, but it does. Maybe it's because I never thought Barbaro was going to win Belmont and I thought Charismatic would have. Be sure I never want to see one of these majestic animals gone down in a heap.

I will never forget my best friend having a horse in the paddock before the race. Looking at the tote board "we" were sitting as the large favorite in the $20K Clm race. We were sure we would win it. Forward to after the race. We find out after the race that there had been claim on the horse for $10K.
Back to 10 minutes to post. Just before riders up the horse rears and hits his head on a beam in the paddock. Drops dead on the spot. Now not only is my friend out of the possible 60% of the purse he recieves nothing for the claim and he had to pay the vet. It went from a possible $20 thousand dollar day to
costing him money. This game is crazy...........

Sorry I am just rambling now.
Back to the discussion.

GO BIG BROWN!!!
:ThmbUp:

[Stevie Belmont]

I never even think about the TC until the horse wins the Preakness.

Do I think he can win it?

Of course, but lets take a look at some of the obstacles in his way. We know Dutrow likes between 30 and 40 days between races. How taxing was his Derby? Lets face it, he ran pretty hard. Regress or move foward? Little doubt in my mind he absolutley carnked to run his best race in the Derby. I think he probably will regress a little, but he still could win and probably will.

There will be new shooters in the Preakness. The new shooters have done poorly over the years. I think he can get through it. The Belmont is another grueling race. The horse also has foot issues. He looked like a world beater Saturday, but I'm not giving any crown away just yet.

He still has two more to go. And those feet still scare me.

[PaceAdvantage]

We know Dutrow likes between 30 and 40 days between races.Dutrow has also been known to run horses back on as little as TWO days' rest.....

How taxing was his Derby? Lets face it, he ran pretty hard.Really? That's not what I saw. As the racing cliche goes, BB wouldn't have been able to blow out a match after he finished the Derby. He basically looked the same after the race as he did in the post parade....

The only thing you have to worry about with BB is the feet....if the feet hold up, history is all but assured at Belmont Park....finally....

[JustRalph]

I have read some comments that say after the race he was walking back and not blowing at all................. if that's true...........Wow!

[Charlie D]

I took him on in the KD, but after watching him win Saturday with some still left in the tank.


Current price is 1-3 over here, he should no bigger than 1-5 imo

[DougReding]

He looked like a world beater Saturday, but I'm not giving any crown away just yet.

Fupeg looked like an unbeatable superhorse after his Derby... even superhorses can have bad days though. Here's to BB NOT having a bad day. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[CyberBet]

those feet still scare me.

Definitely agree there.

I am more worried about the harder surface at Pimlico than I am of any horse he may face there.

[Runaway]

Smarty Jones should never have even been in Kentucky Derby that first Saturday in May.

If you remember back the 2001 foal crop in Kentucky was devastated by what turned out to be something the mares were eating in the fields, fungus or something like that growing on the bluegrass.
We are talking a loss of nearly half of the blue blood thoroughbreds born that year. Correct my figures but I believe they hold fairly close to half. At one point early that year some farms had reported over 75% miscarriages. I remember a report that Coolmore had lost ten foals in one weekend.

I can honestly say I don't think Smarty Jones would have even been in the Derby had the 2001 crop not been so devastated. He is not even mentioned by me when talking about the great horses and honestly never will but it's just an opinion.


05 3yo crop was the year by far most affected by MRLS but nowhere near 50%. 04 3yo crop was bigger than 05, 06 and 07 crops.

While Triple Crown Productions on Sunday released a long list of talented horses nominated to this year's Triple Crown, including 2004 champion two-year-old male Declan's Moon and '04 champion two-year-old female Sweet Catomine, early nominations are down 17.5% compared to last year.The early nomination period closed on January 22 with 358 three-year-olds nominated for $600 each, down 76 from 434 nominations in 2004, with the effects of mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS) being blamed for the drop.

The Jockey Club blames MRLS for a loss of about 2,000 foals from the 2002 crop in the U.S., including about 1,700 in Kentucky where the disease was most prevalent. An estimated 32,235 foals were born in the U.S. in 2002, compared with 34,539 in '01. A total of 34,025 were foaled in '03, and 34,070 were born in '04. The number of Kentucky-breds from the 2002 crop nominated to this year's Triple Crown declined by 71, from 303 in 2004 to 232 in '05.http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2005/February/05/Juvenile-champs-top-2005-Triple-Crown-nominees-number-dips-175.aspx


I had thought 05 was the worst crop I've seen in years but this current 08 group takes the cake and what's their excuse? Which is why I agree about Brownie's feet being his main obstacle. Would like to see Harlem Rocker go though.

[SMOO]

Definitely agree there.

I am more worried about the harder surface at Pimlico than I am of any horse he may face there.
plus only 14 days off, you know his trainer would want more time off than that, the horse always had at least 24 days off, and that was 2nd off a layoff.

[Stevie Belmont]

I know he has. Listen to his comments, he said it himself. He wishes he had more time.

We have heard that history is all but assured several times over the past several years.

Still has to run the races.

I hope so though.


Dutrow has also been known to run horses back on as little as TWO days' rest.....

Really? That's not what I saw. As the racing cliche goes, BB wouldn't have been able to blow out a match after he finished the Derby. He basically looked the same after the race as he did in the post parade....

The only thing you have to worry about with BB is the feet....if the feet hold up, history is all but assured at Belmont Park....finally....

[Semipro]

Hell he could have run the Preakness and won the day after the Derby. PA is rght the only thing that stands between him and the TC is his feet.