Fibonacci

[King Picker]

Fibonacci is a mathamatical format used by stock, commodity and currency traders. Does anyone know if this math concept has ever been applied to Horse Racing Selection???

[robert99]

I have only heard of it being used in staking plans.
What is the possible rational basis for F in horse selection?

[ezpace]

You would need to use something like....the continuous* fractional times of all the horses past performances to have enough variables to make it work. It works on everything else., IT IS the natural GOLDEN ratio in all things .....SO ,with enough due dilligence you might have something there. I hope to have enough time to have someone write code for those type of variables with moving regression as per the Beynesian thread on the main forum .

[witchdoctor]

Analysts and objects in Horssestreet can be programmed to use fibrinocci at the push of one button. Ask Dave Schwartz for more details.

[asH]

Fibonacci was quite a numbers guy, most noted for the Fibonacci numbers 1,1,2,3,5,8....which describe natural symmetry of patterns in nature, and offers itself as a proof for relative patterns.

[GameTheory]

Yeah, Dave Schwartz uses Fibonacci numbers for various things in HSH. He won't shut up about them, actually. :)

[Dave Schwartz]

Somebody call? :p

[rrbauer]

Fibonacci? What race he in?

[LottaKash]

I think ,Racecom.com, along with their Artificial Intelligence software, use something like the Fibonacci........I think it is in their M1 Matrix for Excel software....:jump: .

http://racecom.com/payflow/SetUpHelp.htm#Basic%20Concepts:

best,

[lamboguy]

i train my horses with fibornacci. basically i beleive in the expansion contraction theory behind it. if i have done a 1-1.68 expansion i know i will have a problem, therefore i try to stay away from it. i do this with the works, jogs and gallops.

also since i have most of the horses as babies i train them that way with .38 and .50 expansions and then pullbacks, meaning rest

[asH]

could you explain your theory, I'm not familiar with it ,and am curious.

thanks

[lamboguy]

i would start a horse with a 3/8 work, then go to a half, then 5/8, and then back to a half. going back to the half would be the pullback, the next stept would be 3/4.

same thing in jogging and galloping, training at first 3 days in a row with one day rest, then 4 days with ond day rest, then 6 with one day rest.

it seems to work, because i have had nothign but cheap horses, and wound up with a few champions.

[asH]

what about pace in the works, how do you use it and how has it helped??

[First_Place]

"Fibonacci is a mathamatical format used by stock, commodity and currency traders. Does anyone know if this math concept has ever been applied to Horse Racing Selection???"

I gave it a thought a few years back when I was into a very heavy R & D phase of investigating new/alternative (and even "kooky") ways of analyzing/processing past performance information. But that's where I left it...until your mention now.

Regards,

FP

[BCOURTNEY]

Fibonacci is certainly interesting. If you are into that type of thing, I recommend looking into particle physics and Bott periodicity. Bott periodicity is how math and physics in n+8-dimensional space resemble math and physics in n-dimensional space. It is a wonderful construct and is quite beautiful and has applications to any n-dimensional problem.

[Dave Schwartz]

Fibonacci is certainly interesting. If you are into that type of thing, I recommend looking into particle physics and Bott periodicity. Bott periodicity is how math and physics in n+8-dimensional space resemble math and physics in n-dimensional space. It is a wonderful construct and is quite beautiful and has applications to any n-dimensional problem.

Man, am I in over my head here.


I use Fibonacci when I haven't got a clue how things should be weight. I just figure it worked out so well for God that it ought to be fine for me.


Dave

[Bobzilla]

I'm glad it's not just me. I had to pop several Excedrin after reading post #15 a few times.

I remember learning about the Fibonacci number sequence in high school and how bee hives are designed "by bees" with an innate understanding of this mathematical axiom. In racing, I'm wondering if maybe form cycles can somehow be better understood through Fibonacci. In any event, there are some really smart people on this board, for sure.

[TrifectaMike]

I'm glad it's not just me. I had to pop several Excedrin after reading post #15 a few times.

I remember learning about the Fibonacci number sequence in high school and how bee hives are designed "by bees" with an innate understanding of this mathematical axiom. In racing, I'm wondering if maybe form cycles can somehow be better understood through Fibonacci. In any event, there are some really smart people on this board, for sure.

There is a relationship between win-place betting proportionality and the Golden Section, Phi,(1:1.618). The Golden section ratio is closely related to the Fibonacci sequence.

Mike

[BCOURTNEY]

Mario Livio - The Golden Ratio: The Story of Phi (2002).

I have this book. It's very good. Phi pervades nature, human activity and constructs, art, music. It's quite fasicinating. One interesting fact was that they can use phi to detect credit card fraud, for whatever reason humans follow a specific spending pattern, and when it is violated it "signals" strange behavior, phi itself wasn't an "add-on" method to detect the fraud it was the primary and most predictive factor. I find this amazing. If anyone can detect or find patterns in handicapping that relate to phi it would be most interesting.

Cheers.

[TrifectaMike]

Mario Livio - The Golden Ratio: The Story of Phi (2002).

I have this book. It's very good. Phi pervades nature, human activity and constructs, art, music. It's quite fasicinating. One interesting fact was that they can use phi to detect credit card fraud, for whatever reason humans follow a specific spending pattern, and when it is violated it "signals" strange behavior, phi itself wasn't an "add-on" method to detect the fraud it was the primary and most predictive factor. I find this amazing. If anyone can detect or find patterns in handicapping that relate to phi it would be most interesting.

Cheers.

In the same manner the win pool + place pool divided by win pool is a guassian distribution, and the ratio with the highest frequency approaches the Golden mean ratio, Phi. In other words, the public divides it's win-place wagers primarily according to Phi.

Mike

[BCOURTNEY]

In the same manner the win pool + place pool divided by win pool is a guassian distribution, and the ratio with the highest frequency approaches the Golden mean ratio, Phi. In other words, the public divides it's win-place wagers primarily according to Phi.

Mike

Mike,

I agree with your analysis. Do you have a paper on it? The mere "presence" of the golden mean in an investment market is an indicator of a well delveoped or mature market.

Also, if your a big math freak, there is a paper out that got posted and caused a media storm by a youngish theorectical physist named Garrett Lisi. He was able to model what is known as the standard model into a more advanced one that shows "An exceptionally simple theory of everything", this is a pun on his use of the exceptional Lie Group E8. I will include the link, and if your not mathmatically inclined their is a You Tube video presentation of his ideas. What is amazing about his model is that it predicts tens of thousands of particle interactions which are known to exist today, and does this flawlessly, the bottom line is he beleives that he has come up with the geometry of the reality that we live in and call our universe. Amazing.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=-xHw9zcCvRQ

[King Picker]

Thanks and regards to all who responded to my request for using Fiboncci to select a horse whose race information would be more meaningful if filtered through a Golden Ratio formula

[BCOURTNEY]

I encoded dates in a periodic manner using sin and cos functions and then regressed a performance measure over a 52 week period for all horses running in a year. The chart shows the actual performance measure in blue, plotted with the dates encoded with both pi and phi. The Phi regression can be described as almost perfectly linear, yet still shows and reflects the cyclic nature of performances, as a linear it's R squared is a mere 0.0072! Interesting.

B

[Sinner369]

Bcourtney......could you plot the graph for the same horse for all his past racing
years then it could mean or show something?



sinner;)

[BCOURTNEY]

This graph is based on Jan 1 2005 through Dec 31 2005 data, using beyer numbers produced as the performance measure, excluding horses that did not produce a number, and days which did not have at least 30 samples to draw from. Yes, an individual horse could be plotted as well. The group characteristics are of interest to me, I use a generalized model to handicap with a computer, but perhaps a human could find an angle for individual race plays? Does this answer your question?

[BCOURTNEY]

I found your tagline humorous.

Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!

Lotteries can actually be played with an edge if you know the most commonly selected and disliked numbers, assuming the lottery is a fair game and the numbers are selected randomly, you have an edge. I ran some numbers once on a 10 million dollar bankroll, and knowing the disproportions in the numbers commonly used and those not commonly used, and the odds to win it. The system recommended playing about 10 tickets a week. $10 dollars. This is of course assuming you have 10 million in the bank, want to run complicated analysis every week and invest your time only to be disappointed when the 10 tickets don't come in, if so then it becomes a viable wager to invest in.

[Sinner369]

We are all individuals.....as such we have different backgrounds, different educational training, different levels of experience........thus different points of reference!

My point was to see if the same horse produces the same form cycle from year to year!!!

No disrespect intended for others.


sinner;)

[BCOURTNEY]

We are all individuals.....as such we have different backgrounds, different educational training, different levels of experience........thus different points of reference!

My point was to see if the same horse produces the same form cycle from year to year!!!

No disrespect intended for others.


sinner;)

Haven't looked at that I'll give it a spin an post results.

[098poi]

Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!



Did you know the government is sponsoring a $100,000,000.00 lottery in an effort to raise funds? The tickets only cost a dollar and the payout is $100 a year for a million years!!!!!!! :lol:

[BCOURTNEY]

Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!



Did you know the government is sponsoring a $100,000,000.00 lottery in an effort to raise funds? The tickets only cost a dollar and the payout is $100 a year for a million years!!!!!!! :lol:

No but they do sponsor running a ponzi style system of benefits based on maltus math voodoo which is some how supposed to allow us to retire called social security, which accounts for 2/3's of the nations debt in entitlements while the small brains bicker over amounts like 50-100 billion here and there, the iraq war costs the nation about 500 billion a year and entitlements account for about 2 trillion of the current decifit. If a commerical entity offered this same program it would be shut down as illegal.

[Dave Schwartz]

BC,

Are you suggesting that Social Security "entitlements" should be discontinued?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[GameTheory]

Eventually they will be discontinued regardless of what people think of the idea simply because it will not be possible to continue them. It is amazing that the government can perpetuate this scheme that would put a business person in jail if they tried it...

[Pace Cap'n]

A lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math.

[BCOURTNEY]

BC,

Are you suggesting that Social Security "entitlements" should be discontinued?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Better to pick a specific time, than bankrupt our future generations, children, and their children and legitmate existing and future government services. If a time isn't selected, and sooner is better, it can be mathmetically proven by a 6th grader algerbarically the system will collapse. This is why ponzi schemes and chain letters are illegal. Do you think it's important to stop placing your social security money into a chain letter that provides a negative return? I will mention that I beleive in a limited welfare system for everyone with a maximum time range for example say a year or two in the event of a life crisis, the elderly, children, and mentally insane are the wards and responsibility of society as a whole.

[PaceAdvantage]

May I remind you all that you are posting on the HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE section of the HORSE RACING board.

NO POLITICS please...no discussion of social security, Iraq, etc. etc.

That is what OFF TOPIC is for....


Thanks.

[First_Place]

Dave asked:

"Are you suggesting that Social Security "entitlements" should be discontinued?"

I suggest that one have the option of opting out of this socialist security scheme enacted by that great socialist Franklin Delano Roosevelt (along with his ultra leftwing-filled administration)...WITHOUT being forced to invest in a alternative 'social' security plan, if one so chooses. Hey, it's called personal responsibility, you know, i.e. putting a portion of your paycheck aside for that "rainy day."

Heck, if you blow every last penny of your paycheck or damn near every penny during your working years, (that is, for example, if money wasn't being siphoned out of your paycheck as it is now), then guess what, stupid-ass, spoiled-rotten, all-American dimwit?? IT'S YOUR FAULT come that time to retire and you're dead broke!!!

FP

[First_Place]

PA requested:

May I remind you all that you are posting on the HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE section of the HORSE RACING board.

NO POLITICS please...no discussion of social security, Iraq, etc. etc.

That is what OFF TOPIC is for....


Thanks.

Okay, I didn't see this until I already posted.

Later,

FP

[ddog]

and here i thought they were trying to talk me off BB!

[rokitman]

Just happened across this http://www.gofibonacci.com/?hop=ausmm

[Dave Schwartz]

You know, I buy just about everything but...

[rokitman]

You know, I buy just about everything but...I know it must be very hard to accept that your program has, after all that work, been obsoleted in one fell swoop! :D

From the author: "In fact only an idiot would buy a system unless it is proven to make money regularly."

How could you not buy it?

[Dave Schwartz]

Well, I asked myself, "Who needs all that money, anyway?"

:lol:

[rokitman]

It would have brought ya nothing but headaches. In a predictable ascending sequence, of course! :cool:

[King Picker]

Just happened across this http://www.gofibonacci.com/?hop=ausmm

Rokitman!
Thanks for passing on info about Fibonacci Software. Regards. King Picker

[Dave Schwartz]

King,

Does this mean you purchased it?

If so, what can you tell us?

Dave

[rokitman]

Rokitman!
Thanks for passing on info about Fibonacci Software. Regards. King PickerYou are welcome, King.

If you get good results, please let me know privately in a PM. If you get bad results, please let me know by starting a new thread stating that you got great results.

[Dave Schwartz]

Dang, I may actually have to spend the $67. It just has me intrigued.

[Hosshead]

"Go Fibonacci is the most successful step by step guide to selecting and making winning lay bets on the Betfair betting exchange."

Betting a horse to lose.
I think I've been doing that for a long time.
Oh wait, I have that confused with betting losing horses. :D

[rokitman]

Dang, I may actually have to spend the $67. It just has me intrigued.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKR3QU3dB0M&feature=related

[thelyingthief]

I have only heard of it being used in staking plans.
What is the possible rational basis for F in horse selection?

the very same as it has in finance, commodities, or stock speculation--that is, none what so ever.

tlt.

[robert99]

http://www.adrianmassey.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=7525

[rokitman]

http://www.adrianmassey.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=7525
The Street:"You are an idiot and I predict you will never amount to anything more than what you already are!"


Perhaps Mr. Street needs to work on his bedside manner a little. But it's likely what he said is true! :D

[Dave Schwartz]

I found this "review" of the system.
http://ezinearticles.com/?Go-Fibonacci-Horse-Racing-System-Review&id=850891

This page is worth reading just for a laugh. Not only is it not a review of Go-Fib, but the author completely misses the point of "the law of averages" (which doesn't really exist anyway).



What, exactly, did he review about this "Go Fibonacci" system? The spelling of his web address?


Dave Schwartz

[rokitman]

I found this "review" of the system.
http://ezinearticles.com/?Go-Fibonacci-Horse-Racing-System-Review&id=850891

This page is worth reading just for a laugh. Not only is it not a review of Go-Fib, but the author completely misses the point of "the law of averages" (which doesn't really exist anyway).



What, exactly, did he review about this "Go Fibonacci" system? The spelling of his web address?


Dave SchwartzDid you notice who the author is?

Wow. That guy has no idea what he's talking about. Obviously, he's just throwing "Fibonacci" around the same way others throw "Chaos Theory" around.

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - I completely missed that it was Street himself.

I did, however, find other "reviews," all the same press release.

What a con.

[rrbauer]

LOL - I completely missed that it was Street himself.

I did, however, find other "reviews," all the same press release.

What a con.

It ends in a vowel....what did you expect? :lol: :lol:

[robert99]

Even article at

http://www.newhorseracingsystems.com/mathematicalsportsbetting.html

seems strangely familiar.

[rokitman]

Even article at

http://www.newhorseracingsystems.com/mathematicalsportsbetting.html

seems strangely familiar.
$67 seems to be the Golden Number when selling these type things over there.

I sure wish Dave S. would get his diabolical ass in gear.

[rokitman]

http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?p=459452

[Valuist]

The win/loss records of major league baseball teams is an interesting example of the Fibonacci concept. The key percentages are 62.5%, 50% and 37.5%. 162 games in a season.....virtually all teams will win at least 60 and lose at least 60. 100 wins puts a team very close to 62.5% and 60 puts one close to 37.5%.