Pace

[AAcoolguy]

I had what you might call a "lightbulb" moment yesterday during the Kentucky Derby. I have been reading the posts here and reading just about all I can get my hands on concerning pace and every other aspect of handicapping. I recently bought some "Match-up" stuff on ebay and put the very basics of it to use on the Derby. I knew what pace Big Brown could win against, when he wasn't on the front I got a little concerned. Then the announcer said that the half was run in :47, I though to myself "Big Brown can win against that", as soon as the thought formed here he came to take the lead and win. Wow I got it! I know I still have lots to learn, but I want to thank you all for the "lightbulb moment". :ThmbUp:

[Bobzilla]

Given the speed of the track and the caliber of the field comprising this G1 Stakes event I personally don't believe 47 flat was all that fast at all to the half. Seeing that I had thrown next month's rent on Denis of Cork, who was purposly dropped to last with the presumption of a pace, a moderate or slow half was thus guaranteed. Nice try Denis, glad I played him to show, too.

[Tread]

most of that half was running into a 20mph head wind, so that slowed them down good. Still requires energy as though they were going much faster than that however. Wonder what the final race time would have been with no wind?

[asH]

Coolguy

you've got it

[Hosshead]

The trick is to figure out before the race, that the best 3yr. olds in the country are going to run a 47 half on a fast track.

[Hosshead]

These "best 3yr. olds" (that ran a 47) included the world record holder for 6f. ?
(OK that was a phoney record made on the asphalt under a thin graded plastic track, thanks to F. Stronach)
But IMO this is not a good crop of 3yr. olds
Big Brown may be a good horse, but he never would have gotten past (or even to) - Affirmed.

[46zilzal]

NO ONE could have lasted, without BEING ALONE ON THE LEAD, in a time UNDER 47. None of them

[asH]

oh yeah, like Hard Spun last year :22.96 :46.26 1:11.13
2nd, 2 lenghs behind the winner in the Derby.

[46zilzal]

oh yeah, like Hard Spun last year :22.96 :46.26 1:11.13
2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner in the Derby.

ALONE ON THE LEAD and he didn't win did he???

[Light]

AAcoolguy

That's great, but since the rest of the country knew BB was the horse to beat on pace and speed,I wouldn't brag about. Not knocking you,but on a reality check and a little advice: thats not gonna get you anywhere.

When you start filtering your best pace and speed horses based on decent prices or when you become shrewd enough to know when a BB type will not run his race,then you're on your way to a profitable hobby,provided you learn how to optimize your bets.

[asH]

ALONE ON THE LEAD and he didn't win did he???

I was supporting your argument, and in doing so, I thought I had also pointed to the horse better than Street Sense. Due to (my belief) Pino's misunderstanding of pace Street Sense gained two wins in both Derby and Preakness. After Pino finally adjusted Hard Spun always finished in front of Street Sense after....why the caps??

[46zilzal]

I am talking ONE race (K Derby) not a career.

[asH]

I am talking ONE race (K Derby) not a career.
you didnt know that from my previous... cut the crap, leave it at that

[AAcoolguy]

I don't care if the time was slow fast or whatever, I was just trying to pass on that I finally got the idea of pace. Thanks for the words of encouragement aSH, the rest of you old ladies can get back to your bickering.

[46zilzal]

Find a copy of Heuy Mahl and put it to memory: that is what pace is all about.

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink.cby/detail/488005.html

[Tom]

I have a copy of his book? Is that good enough? :confused:

[andicap]

Why are people giving AA so much crap? He wasn't bragging -- just saying he had an "Eureka!" moment about using pace handicapping when he noticed Big Brown had run a 47-second half and NO ONE else in the race had the capability of doing that.
And in the most basic sense, isn't that what The Match-Up and Huey Mahl, etc. is all about. Sure there's a lot more to learn in order to really monetize this knowledge, but it was a huge breakthrough in my handicapping when I finally grasped the basic concepts of pace and match-ups.

jeez, people here are getting really ornery...