View Full Version : Big Brown Beyer?
100 for the runner-up.
95 for the 3rd place finisher.
I'd say 107 is a very good guess.
Could be a bit more?
I'm guessing about 107.
rastajenk
05-03-2008, 08:22 PM
That was about my first instinct. That would put the runners-up into the 90's...it trails off pretty quickly from there. I think Monba will have to pay some INSF charges for going into the red.
ny0707ny
05-03-2008, 08:38 PM
I'm guessing about 107.
Bring Hard Spun out of my retirement! :bang: :bang: Nobody can match this horse.
He was pick last year and I think he ran a 107 in the Derby. Hard to believe even after all this time he still lost. 107 is good enough on any day to win races.
jonnielu
05-03-2008, 08:46 PM
I'm guessing about 107.
It appears that everybody makes speed figures the same way.
jdl
JustRalph
05-03-2008, 09:00 PM
check out the lengths beaten by some of these horses.............
how in the hell are you going to give numbers for the ones who staggered home?
Some were over 30 back......................amazing
jonnielu
05-03-2008, 09:07 PM
check out the lengths beaten by some of these horses.............
how in the hell are you going to give numbers for the ones who staggered home?
Some were over 30 back......................amazing
I'll figure that it will require the usual guesswork and assignment of the mis-understood to the track surface.
jdl
Charlie D
05-03-2008, 09:19 PM
I'm guessing about 107.
FWIW CJ, i get it at 106 on my figs
FunkyMonkey
05-03-2008, 10:08 PM
think it was about 50-60 lengths from 1st to last...
BSF's have nothing to do with how fast they ran early or how many lengths the horse won or lost by.
The final time of 2:01 4/5 is given a raw number in this case it's 118.
Once the varient is calculated it is added to the raw number. In most cases that is the final BSF. At times , there are races that do not make sense and the fig maker projects the final number.
I'm just guessing here but I think the fig will be between a 106 and 110.
BIG49010
05-03-2008, 11:55 PM
Geometry? Post 20, etc.. I don't care what number you put on it, he ran a great race, if his feet hold up maybe a do I dare say? No I won't jinx it.
Geometry? Post 20, etc.. I don't care what number you put on it, he ran a great race, if his feet hold up maybe a do I dare say? No I won't jinx it.
You're absolutely correct. At this point in time he is head and shoulders above this crop. I have tickets for the Belmont Stakes and I want to see him run with a chance to win the Triple Crown.
Semipro
05-04-2008, 08:05 PM
BSF 109Is that offical or a guess becuase that my number.
The 109 was posted early this morning at drf.
Is that offical or a guess becuase that my number.
Semipro
05-04-2008, 10:01 PM
The 109 was posted early this morning at drf.Well I can't spell because but that was my number thanks for the reply.
ny0707ny
05-04-2008, 10:18 PM
Street Sense would have beaten him. I found out BB got a 109 in the Derby yesterday. Street Sense got a 110. Hard Spun a 107. If he only raced last year we would have had some race.
Semipro
05-04-2008, 10:22 PM
:lol: Street Sense would have beaten him. I found out BB got a 109 in the Derby yesterday. Street Sense got a 110. Hard Spun a 107. If he only raced last year we would have had some race.:lol:
ny0707ny
05-04-2008, 10:24 PM
:lol: :lol:
What is so funny? You don't think the race would have been exciting? This Derby was like watching paint dry this year. :bang:
Street Sense would have beaten him. I found out BB got a 109 in the Derby yesterday. Street Sense got a 110. Hard Spun a 107. If he only raced last year we would have had some race.
NY You cannot say he got a 110 he got a 109 110 wins.You have to look at the fig with respect to HOW it was earned ,Street Sense got a dream trip on the rail Big brown with post 20 and 4-5 wide on the turns had a tougher trip.BB ran the better race.same thing with those War pass numbers you keep yapping about they were earned LOOSE on the lead ,the easiest trip for a speed.Considering Big Brown's lack of experience and poor post, his performance is clearly superior to street sense's and light years better than WAR PASS's.I know I'm wasteing my time here but I can't help my self.:rolleyes:
ny0707ny
05-04-2008, 10:49 PM
NY You cannot say he got a 110 he got a 109 110 wins.You have to look at the fig with respect to HOW it was earned ,Street Sense got a dream trip on the rail Big brown with post 20 and 4-5 wide on the turns had a tougher trip.BB ran the better race.same thing with those War pass numbers you keep yapping about they were earned LOOSE on the lead ,the easiest trip for a speed.Considering Big Brown's lack of experience and poor post, his performance is clearly superior to street sense's and light years better than WAR PASS's.I know I'm wasteing my time here but I can't help my self.:rolleyes:
Thanks but I know all about that. I didn't start following horse racing yesterday. :bang:
He might have done even better with a good post position. But he got the lead pretty fast and no bad break. Didn't get caught that wide. You can add some to the 109 if you want. He ran pretty clean to me. You also can look at it another way and see who he ran against here though. These were mostly stakes horses to me at best. I wonder what would have happened last year where the field quality was light years beyond this year. Street Sense beat better quality horses.
I was just looking here Street Sense faced 8 horses in the Derby who earned a 100 or better Beyer figure.
Big Brown faced 5 who earned a 100 or more. BBJ I left out since he got his in a sprint. Pyro got his triple way way back so really only 4 others.
Thanks but I know all about that. I didn't start following horse racing yesterday. :bang:
He might have done even better with a good post position. But he got the lead pretty fast and no bad break. Didn't get caught that wide. You can add some to the 109 if you want. He ran pretty clean to me. You also can look at it another way and see who he ran against here though. These were mostly stakes horses to me at best. I wonder what would have happened last year where the field quality was light years beyond this year. Street Sense beat better quality horses.
I was just looking here Street Sense faced 8 horses in the Derby who earned a 100 or better Beyer figure.
I can't help myself so here goes.If you knew all that,then why say BB ran a 109 SS ran 110 so SS whould have won?????? what do you think semipro was:lol: about.DUH
ny0707ny
05-04-2008, 11:07 PM
I can't help myself so here goes.If you knew all that,then why say BB ran a 109 SS ran 110 so SS whould have won???
It might have been equal but I always weigh the competition more. That is why I say SS would have beaten him. I didn't even include some great 3 yr olds he had to face like Nobiz, Scat Daddy who were on a roll. The competition was clearly better. You had many horses who ran high 90's in their last race also last year.
Hard Spun beat SS in last 2 races what does he get for that?
Burls
05-05-2008, 03:34 AM
NY You cannot say he got a 110 he got a 109 110 wins.You have to look at the fig with respect to HOW it was earned ,Street Sense got a dream trip on the rail Big brown with post 20 and 4-5 wide on the turns had a tougher trip.BB ran the better race.same thing with those War pass numbers you keep yapping about they were earned LOOSE on the lead ,the easiest trip for a speed.Considering Big Brown's lack of experience and poor post, his performance is clearly superior to street sense's and light years better than WAR PASS's.I know I'm wasteing my time here but I can't help my self.:rolleyes:
I don't know about that, Hank.
When I saw the overhead version of the race, it looked pretty clear that Big Brown had a dream trip the whole race.
The only shortcoming was that he had to run a little extra distance when he went 3-wide around the first turn.
After the rush for the first turn, Big Brown was completely unforced and completely uncrowded for the whole race.
When he made his move, he had lots of room and hadn't had any dirt kicked in his face the entire race.
Think what you want about Dutrow and his checkered past, but I think you have to admit that it was a really sharp move to take the 20 post.
I didn't think that before the race, but I see it now.
Big Brown ran a good race, but, like it or not, you have to give Dutrow credit for planning out the optimal route for the horse that he had.
Interesting note, at least to a figures geek like myself, is that Beyer didn't use the same variant for the Derby he did for the other two routes on the card. If he had, the Beyer for the Derby would have been about 104.
highnote
05-05-2008, 04:48 AM
Given the long stretch at CD, BB had a quarter mile to get from post twenty over to about 3 wide by the first turn. That's not much of a disadvantage. Also, the turns may be banked, so he might actually have been helped by centrifugal force as he ran around the turns.
Still, no matter what the circumstances were, he was the best horse.
john del riccio
05-05-2008, 05:34 AM
Interesting note, at least to a figures geek like myself, is that Beyer didn't use the same variant for the Derby he did for the other two routes on the card. If he had, the Beyer for the Derby would have been about 104.
From one geek to another.....Now THATS interesting..... Did you have the strip slowing down ? I didn't.
John
NO, and the race after it was one of the routes, so Beyer split out the Derby apparently.
jonnielu
05-05-2008, 06:24 AM
BSF's have nothing to do with how fast they ran early or how many lengths the horse won or lost by.
The final time of 2:01 4/5 is given a raw number in this case it's 118.
Once the varient is calculated it is added to the raw number. In most cases that is the final BSF. At times , there are races that do not make sense and the fig maker projects the final number.
I'm just guessing here but I think the fig will be between a 106 and 110.
Seems like an awful lot of guesswork is involved in this speed figure business, how about just writing the various pokes down and putting them in a tumbler for drawing at midnight with a pagan ceremony? You could get an obay woman to come and wave some cat bones and chicken lips at the track surface too.
jdl
Seems like an awful lot of guesswork is involved in this speed figure business, how about just writing the various pokes down and putting them in a tumbler for drawing at midnight with a pagan ceremony? You could get an obay woman to come and wave some cat bones and chicken lips at the track surface too.
jdl
We get it...you don't like figures. Don't use them. That doesn't mean OTHERS can't make money using them. So please, stop trying to take every figure thread off track with your posts.
jonnielu
05-05-2008, 06:58 AM
Interesting note, at least to a figures geek like myself, is that Beyer didn't use the same variant for the Derby he did for the other two routes on the card. If he had, the Beyer for the Derby would have been about 104.
Wow, that is interesting... Beyer pulls another variant out of his ass, you'd think the well might run dry with him dipping his variant bucket in the same spot for 30 years.
jdl
jonnielu
05-05-2008, 07:23 AM
We get it...you don't like figures. Don't use them. That doesn't mean OTHERS can't make money using them. So please, stop trying to take every figure thread off track with your posts.
Oh, I'm sorry, I thought it was one of those discussion forums. The discussion seemed to be about track variants and how they are arrived at.
jdl
john del riccio
05-05-2008, 07:25 AM
Seems like an awful lot of guesswork is involved in this speed figure business, how about just writing the various pokes down and putting them in a tumbler for drawing at midnight with a pagan ceremony? You could get an obay woman to come and wave some cat bones and chicken lips at the track surface too.
jdl
You know, I have listened to you disparage this discipline for some time now
& I have tried to take the high road by saying nothing. So let me come down one level and say this. If you think that handicapping thoroughbreds doesn't involve more unknowns than knowns than we aught to bow at your alter because you are obviously the high exalted mystic ruler of the sport. Thanks for all the great insight you are providing.
John
Oh, I'm sorry, I thought it was one of those discussion forums. The discussion seemed to be about track variants and how they are arrived at.
jdl
Sure, if you were actually discussing something. I don't really call this discussing, but maybe that is just me:
how about just writing the various pokes down and putting them in a tumbler for drawing at midnight with a pagan ceremony? You could get an obay woman to come and wave some cat bones and chicken lips at the track surface too.
jonnielu
05-05-2008, 08:08 AM
Sure, if you were actually discussing something. I don't really call this discussing, but maybe that is just me:
Point A. - Variance in race times at any particular track is not produced by the track surface. Assigning variance to the track surface is nonsense in the first place.
Point B. - Figure-makers are compounding guess one that variance does lie in the surface with guess # two on how much the surface affected any given performance.
Point C. - Figure-making is an expression of race time in the first place, and race time is, by nature, in a state of flux. To make a hard, accurate, and useable figure that is consistently correct, you would need to find the actual source of variance and address it and/or account for it in a way that can be consistently justified with results as they are.
In other words, when the results consistently match your predictions, across all classes, and all odds levels, with perhaps fewer then 10% of horse race results mystifying you, then you have found the true and correct source of variance.
But, go ahead and dismiss these ideas as the arrogance of a lunatic madman, and don't spend two minutes thinking about the little bit I am saying here. I am an old 5 - 1 guy, I really enjoy that my cashing range has been moved up to 10 - 1.
jdl
Semipro
05-05-2008, 08:25 AM
NO, and the race after it was one of the routes, so Beyer split out the Derby apparently.CJ when I was looking at your figures of the prep races and assuming that I was intepreting them correctly the Florida Derby seem to be a standout race so I wondering why you didn't like BB better or was it he was just to chalky.
The Hawk
05-05-2008, 08:26 AM
You can hardly fault a figure maker for splitting the variant at a unique distance. It happens all the time, as it should. If you're going to lump in all "routes" you're no better than computer figures, all else being equal.
nobeyerspls
05-05-2008, 08:33 AM
Wow, that is interesting... Beyer pulls another variant out of his ass, you'd think the well might run dry with him dipping his variant bucket in the same spot for 30 years.
jdl
Those who use the beyer speed figures know that they're subjective and often revised. A wide trip or a moderate pace are not part of their computation and, if their base is subjective, then the figure is subjective. Beyer advises to know how the figure is earned so if Big Brown was given a 104 his performance still might have been highly regarded given his wide post. Keep in mind that Beyer did not select this horse despite his high figures. He took the three lifetime starts into consideration as well as the outside post. None of his three picks hit the board but each had a triple digit figure so he was consistent.
It is true that some use the figures in a ridiculous way, i.e Street Sense ran a 110 and Big Brown ran a 109 so Street Sense would beat Big Brown. I believe that most who use them do so in context as their creator does. They apply a lifetime of handicapping skills and simply take the figures for what they are.
I've noticed that the percentage of winning favorites has remained about the same over the fifty two years that I have been doing this with a slightly higher number in recent years skewed by smaller fields. To my benefit many of the losing favorites now are below even money, a fact I attribute to a false elevation of confidence based on a wide gap in the figures. When a horse with a last race 54 blows away one with a 100, you're going to get a nice price.
So, no need to discredit the beyer speed figures. They are an honest attempt to digitize performance and they appear to be a work in progress. Many on here make their own figures and others dissect the race into segments (it is called "Pace Advantage" after all) so give them credit for trying to advance the Science/Art of handicapping. Handicapping is a humbling endeavor no matter how you do it. We're all trying to predict the outcome of an event involving bone, blood, and muscle travelling varied surfaces and distances under unreliable human control. When "slow" horses (Birdstone) beat "fast" horses (Smarty Jones) it is what it is. In fifty match races how many times would Sarava beat Medaglio D'Oro. Devide Giacomos Grade I wins by one and you get one. So let the figure players figure, they have a right to do so.
Point A. - Variance in race times at any particular track is not produced by the track surface. Assigning variance to the track surface is nonsense in the first place.
That is your opinion. Variant adjusted speed figures are still the best tool at predicting winners...not value based mind you, but for just selecting winners.
Point B. - Figure-makers are compounding guess one that variance does lie in the surface with guess # two on how much the surface affected any given performance.
Point C. - Figure-making is an expression of race time in the first place, and race time is, by nature, in a state of flux. To make a hard, accurate, and useable figure that is consistently correct, you would need to find the actual source of variance and address it and/or account for it in a way that can be consistently justified with results as they are.
I agree making only a speed figure is tough. When done in combination with other factors it is clear the speed of the track does affect time.
Nobody has ever said what you do doesn't work. I've also never said that speed figures alone will beat the game. Making them is not nearly as hard as you try to make them out to be most times. If you had trouble making them, you didn't try enough or didn't understand them in my opinion.
You can hardly fault a figure maker for splitting the variant at a unique distance. It happens all the time, as it should. If you're going to lump in all "routes" you're no better than computer figures, all else being equal.
Since I have been doing this for a long time, I happen to know that Beyer doesn't normally change the variant just because a race is at 10f. They run the distance fairly often at Churchill.
Now, keep in mind, he is saying Big Brown ran faster than he did in the Florida Derby while much wider and carrying more weight than he ever had before. He is also giving Eight Belles a lifetime best. So, I hardly disagreed without looking at many factors. I don't talk about my figures here much anymore, but I can guarantee you I am MUCH, MUCH better than any computer generated numbers.
classhandicapper
05-05-2008, 09:56 AM
Interesting note, at least to a figures geek like myself, is that Beyer didn't use the same variant for the Derby he did for the other two routes on the card. If he had, the Beyer for the Derby would have been about 104.
Supposedly, there was a head wind in the stretch that may have had an extra impact on the final time because they ran into it twice (vs say sprints and routes with a shorter run into the stretch the first time). I can't verify that though. I believe I read that on the TG board.
In any event, the track was drying it. It was labeled fast, but I've been told it still had moisture in it during the day while labeled that way. So track speed could easily have been changing also. I think this is another case where any reasonable figure gets you into the ballpark, but it's virtually impossible to do much better than that.
Supposedly, there was a head wind in the stretch that may have had an extra impact on the final time because they ran into it twice. I can't verify that though. I read on another figure maker's site.
I read that, but it would have to be some headwind to cause 5 points of variance from the other routes.
classhandicapper
05-05-2008, 10:05 AM
I doubt the figure was big. The filly was a very good, but IMO she wasn't a monster. DOC and TOE aren't world beaters either. All the horses that theoretically could have stepped up and run a huge race either didn't fire, didn't like the surface etc...
Noted: I updated my prior post about moisture in case you missed it.
I doubt the figure was big. The filly was a very good, but IMO she wasn't a monster. DOC and TOE aren't world beaters either. All the horses that theoretically could have stepped up and run a huge race either didn't fire, didn't like the surface etc...
Noted: I updated my prior post about moisture in case you missed it.
How did it suddenly speed up again the next race then?
I am not saying he is wrong, but I have a hard time believing the horse and the two behind him ran lifetime tops at 10f carrying the highest weight ever in their lives with varying trips. It seems fishy to me.
CJ when I was looking at your figures of the prep races and assuming that I was intepreting them correctly the Florida Derby seem to be a standout race so I wondering why you didn't like BB better or was it he was just to chalky.
I didn't have anything against the horse really, just not taking 2 to 1 in a 20 horse field ever. I treaded very lightly in the race to be honest.
classhandicapper
05-05-2008, 10:49 AM
How did it suddenly speed up again the next race then?
I am not saying he is wrong, but I have a hard time believing the horse and the two behind him ran lifetime tops at 10f carrying the highest weight ever in their lives with varying trips. It seems fishy to me.
I have no idea. ;)
This is one of those things I don't worry too much about because we are only debating a couple of points here or there. I worry when the difference 10 points. :bang: There was some wind, the track was drying out, the track speed may not be uniform (the stretch could be slower) etc.. Who knows?
I'm actually more interested in the ground loss aspect of Big Brown's effort.
If you add in the literal ground loss, it looks like a freakish effort.
However, CD is one of those tracks where horses often seem to do OK despite some ground loss. I don't know if the outside paths are sometimes a little faster than the inside paths, the banking on the turns helps the outside horses or it's something elser. But as I was watching the races Saturday, I saw a lot of horses that didn't seem to be having all that much trouble keeping up or rallying on the turn relative to the inside horses. At a certain point, the ground loss is probably a factor, but I suspect it wasn't length for length on Saturday.
Perhaps the ground loss was a negative for Big Brown, but not nearly as big a negative as the general impression.
I see a lot of days like that (in fact I thought that might be true of the Z Fortune prep where he lost a lot of ground). I also see days at other tracks where you can see the outside horses at a signficant disadvantage on the turn.
So how good was Big Brown's effort?
On TG and RAGs it's probably going to be huge. But I'm more or less somewhere between the Beyer and those big numbers in a fuzzy area.
We have just witnessed a probable super horse (the filly too) and you guys are not sure about what you’ve seen? reading through this thread one would come to the conclusion that determining a number is subjective at best.
Super horse? all of bb's races have been eye openers, while being inexperienced(including the Derby). He has shown he can rate with early speed for a mile and still has a finishing kick while others are gasping for air, His only opponent is the clock.
simply stated rationalization of this Derby
... a good Derby pace,
Using the Derby Chart as a visual
one could conclude that the running lines separating good (relative)
and mediocre horses are the lines of Tale of Ekati and Recapturetheglory-I can use them as the 'class standard' in this model or a Mendoza line. I could make this deduction based on how I viewed or rated horses who finished in close proximity to them (if you were honest with yourself) they should have been closely rated within each other regardless what system used. Everything being relative, there are enough horses in close proximity of these to conclusion general rating of these horses being similar. Horses below... CowBoy Cal we could all probably agree were not Derby contenders.
Colonel John and others who may have incurred trouble during the running could be horses who are capable of moving above the Standard class line.
Seeing it this way reduces conjecture and is probably closer to the truth, simply because the pieces describe the whole.
highnote
05-05-2008, 12:52 PM
Variant adjusted speed figures are still the best tool at predicting winners...not value based mind you, but for just selecting winners.
My experience is that speed figures are the second best tool for predicting winners. Near post time odds are the best tool by a big margin.
Neither tool offers much value, but are extremely useful. I have yet to see a factor that can be applied to a broad range of races and be more predictive than speed figures or post time odds.
If there are any I would love to know what they are.
I've done tests of raw times with and without variant adjustments. Without question raw times adjusted for track speed are more predictive than unadjusted raw times.
Jim Quinn's book "Figure Handicapping" gives the best explanation I've seen of why speed figures work and why variants are important.
Bruddah
05-05-2008, 01:11 PM
Those who use the beyer speed figures know that they're subjective and often revised. A wide trip or a moderate pace are not part of their computation and, if their base is subjective, then the figure is subjective. Beyer advises to know how the figure is earned so if Big Brown was given a 104 his performance still might have been highly regarded given his wide post. Keep in mind that Beyer did not select this horse despite his high figures. He took the three lifetime starts into consideration as well as the outside post. None of his three picks hit the board but each had a triple digit figure so he was consistent.
It is true that some use the figures in a ridiculous way, i.e Street Sense ran a 110 and Big Brown ran a 109 so Street Sense would beat Big Brown. I believe that most who use them do so in context as their creator does. They apply a lifetime of handicapping skills and simply take the figures for what they are.
I've noticed that the percentage of winning favorites has remained about the same over the fifty two years that I have been doing this with a slightly higher number in recent years skewed by smaller fields. To my benefit many of the losing favorites now are below even money, a fact I attribute to a false elevation of confidence based on a wide gap in the figures. When a horse with a last race 54 blows away one with a 100, you're going to get a nice price.
So, no need to discredit the beyer speed figures. They are an honest attempt to digitize performance and they appear to be a work in progress. Many on here make their own figures and others dissect the race into segments (it is called "Pace Advantage" after all) so give them credit for trying to advance the Science/Art of handicapping. Handicapping is a humbling endeavor no matter how you do it. We're all trying to predict the outcome of an event involving bone, blood, and muscle travelling varied surfaces and distances under unreliable human control. When "slow" horses (Birdstone) beat "fast" horses (Smarty Jones) it is what it is. In fifty match races how many times would Sarava beat Medaglio D'Oro. Devide Giacomos Grade I wins by one and you get one. So let the figure players figure, they have a right to do so.
You get an Amen Bruddah for this!!! :ThmbUp:
OTM Al
05-05-2008, 01:26 PM
Its tough I think to make a good figure for this race as there just aren't that many races at this distance anymore. TC Beyers seem to me to represent more of a historical mark rather than one that can be used race to race. In 2 weeks we will see a line that shows he broke from the far outside, ran wide around both terms while stalking the leaders and won going away and one piece of info there will be that he did it with a strong speed fig. I don't think the ones right behind him getting lifetime tops is all that bad for 2 reasons. First, they weren't huge jumps Denis had hit mid 90s before and Eight Belles had been at 100 (and I always feel the fillies get downgraded slightly in their numbers). Second, Horses are herd animals and thus instinctively follow in groups. I think sometimes a huge effort by the leader does suck up the followers a bit as they are going all out to stay close to him when they are used to being alpha type individuals
highnote
05-05-2008, 01:32 PM
When "slow" horses (Birdstone) beat "fast" horses (Smarty Jones) it is what it is. In fifty match races how many times would Sarava beat Medaglio D'Oro. Devide Giacomos Grade I wins by one and you get one. So let the figure players figure, they have a right to do so.
When slow horses beat fast horses there has to be a reason. Unfortunately, we can't always know the reason. However, in the case of Birdstone and Smarty Jones I think I can offer up a good explanation.
Birdstone was better suited to a mile and a half than Smarty Jones.
Birdstone's Dosage Index is 1.77 and Smarty's is 3.40. A lower Dosage Index is predictive of having more stamina in the pedigree.
Birdstone was also a Dual Qualifier for the Triple Crown Races. By that I mean that his Dosage Index is less than 4.0 and he was rated within 10 pounds of the highweight in the Experimental Free Handicap. The Experimental Free Handicap is an indication of two year old form. The two ratings are combined in an attempt to predict classic performance.
Birdstone's sire was Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone.
Given his pedigree, it is not surprising to me that Birdstone could outrun Smarty over 12 furlongs.
distance is the great equalizer
quote: "When slow horses beat fast horses there has to be a reason. Unfortunately, we can't always know the reason. "
This is not true...there are enough races everyday every year, every decade...to help conclusion an answer..all depends on how one views the universe he/she is in.
sidebar; 2-1 on BB, I felt 3-1 reasonable, inside money?
I don't know about that, Hank.
When I saw the overhead version of the race, it looked pretty clear that Big Brown had a dream trip the whole race.
The only shortcoming was that he had to run a little extra distance when he went 3-wide around the first turn.
After the rush for the first turn, Big Brown was completely unforced and completely uncrowded for the whole race.
When he made his move, he had lots of room and hadn't had any dirt kicked in his face the entire race.
Think what you want about Dutrow and his checkered past, but I think you have to admit that it was a really sharp move to take the 20 post.
I didn't think that before the race, but I see it now.
Big Brown ran a good race, but, like it or not, you have to give Dutrow credit for planning out the optimal route for the horse that he had.
Yea hindsight is alyways 20 20,and a good horse can make up for many things.
highnote
05-05-2008, 02:20 PM
quote: "When slow horses beat fast horses there has to be a reason. Unfortunately, we can't always know the reason. "
This is not true...there are enough races everyday every year, every decade...to help conclusion an answer..all depends on how one views the universe he/she is in.
I don't agree. If a trainer cheats by using an illegal drug on a slow horse and the horse wins and no one except the trainer knows the horse was running on performance enhancing drugs and the trainer dies after the race and there is no investigation into the improved performance then no one will ever know the truth of why the horse ran so well.
There is an answer for every question. The question is, "Is the answer correct?"
The human mind will give an answer to every question asked of it (that is why there are conspiracy theories :D ). But not every question will be answered correctly.
The more often the same cause and effect happens the more confidence we have that the cause is producing the effect. But if something only happens once and there is not enough evidence to produce a plausible explanation then it can not be said with certainty what caused the outcome.
But enough of semantics. I'll try to keep it on topic.
increase your sample size.....
again, it depends on how one views his personal universe
highnote
05-05-2008, 02:30 PM
increase your sample size.....
again, it depends on how one views his personal universe
OK
Kelso
05-05-2008, 02:33 PM
I think Dutrow's key move was having BB rate a few lengths off on the outside, rather than repeating his Florida dash to the rail. That left plenty of oats to burn in the stretch.
I expected BB to be in a mile-long shootout with Ekati ... with Bob and Cal perhaps joining in ... and to be finished by the top of the stretch. But whathehell do I know. :bang:
cmoore
05-05-2008, 02:35 PM
NY You cannot say he got a 110 he got a 109 110 wins.You have to look at the fig with respect to HOW it was earned ,Street Sense got a dream trip on the rail Big brown with post 20 and 4-5 wide on the turns had a tougher trip.BB ran the better race.same thing with those War pass numbers you keep yapping about they were earned LOOSE on the lead ,the easiest trip for a speed.Considering Big Brown's lack of experience and poor post, his performance is clearly superior to street sense's and light years better than WAR PASS's.I know I'm wasteing my time here but I can't help my self.:rolleyes:
Your spot on there Hank!!!!
Big Brown ran the longest distance in the Derby and still won with ease.
ny0707ny
05-05-2008, 02:46 PM
Your spot on there Hank!!!!
Big Brown ran the longest distance in the Derby and still won with ease.
But your not looking at the entire picture. Yeah he ran further outside and all but he faced a buch of allowance horses that were terrible. They had horrible workouts also leading up to the Derby with the exception of a few. Look at last years Derby field and tell me which is better and by how much.
Naughty New Yorker at 6 worked faster than most of these horse and he is only a Stakes horse.
highnote
05-05-2008, 02:53 PM
Your spot on there Hank!!!!
Big Brown ran the longest distance in the Derby and still won with ease.
Too bad they don't have Trakus for the Derby. Would love to know how far he actually ran.
As I wrote earlier, it is possible that he was aided by running wider on the banked turns due to the centrifugal force. I have no way of knowing if that was the case, but it's a possibility.
Still, credit where credit is due. BB is the Kentucky Derby champion.
There is only one truth , in seeking truth a person has to know what truth is....logical handicapping
sidebar: how is it a subjective item like a speed # explain anything? it's a black box, only the owner understands its make-up. Personally I believe it harms handicappers due to its vagueness.
When slow horses beat fast horses there has to be a reason. Unfortunately, we can't always know the reason. However, in the case of Birdstone and Smarty Jones I think I can offer up a good explanation.
Birdstone was better suited to a mile and a half than Smarty Jones.
Birdstone's Dosage Index is 1.77 and Smarty's is 3.40. A lower Dosage Index is predictive of having more stamina in the pedigree.
Birdstone was also a Dual Qualifier for the Triple Crown Races. By that I mean that his Dosage Index is less than 4.0 and he was rated within 10 pounds of the highweight in the Experimental Free Handicap. The Experimental Free Handicap is an indication of two year old form. The two ratings are combined in an attempt to predict classic performance.
Birdstone's sire was Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone.
Given his pedigree, it is not surprising to me that Birdstone could outrun Smarty over 12 furlongs.
It didn't hurt that Smarty Jones was ridden foolishly while being tackled by opponents on both sides a few times in the race. Birdstone was as lucky a horse as you will see win a race.
highnote
05-05-2008, 06:10 PM
It didn't hurt that Smarty Jones was ridden foolishly while being tackled by opponents on both sides a few times in the race. Birdstone was as lucky a horse as you will see win a race.
I'll see if I can find a replay of the race. All I remember is betting Smarty like crazy to place and show and seeing Birdstone flying down the stretch like he could run all day and then kicking myself in the ass for not betting the Dual Qualifier. :bang:
jonnielu
05-05-2008, 07:19 PM
That is your opinion. Variant adjusted speed figures are still the best tool at predicting winners...not value based mind you, but for just selecting winners.
I agree making only a speed figure is tough. When done in combination with other factors it is clear the speed of the track does affect time.
Nobody has ever said what you do doesn't work. I've also never said that speed figures alone will beat the game. Making them is not nearly as hard as you try to make them out to be most times. If you had trouble making them, you didn't try enough or didn't understand them in my opinion.
Some people think that a handsaw is the best tool for cutting wood too.
I don't say making speed figures is hard, I could make more accurate ones then Beyer in 5 minutes a race. I wouldn't waste my time at that rate.
I don't even know why it bothers me anymore, after 35 years of observation, it seems to me that people like being duped.
JustRalph
05-05-2008, 07:46 PM
It didn't hurt that Smarty Jones was ridden foolishly while being tackled by opponents on both sides a few times in the race. Birdstone was as lucky a horse as you will see win a race.
I will Never forgive Jerry Bailey for that either............ son of a bitch sacrificed his horse in collusion with the other rider..........I forget who it was.............but I thought Bailey had more class than that
ghostyapper
05-05-2008, 08:01 PM
It didn't hurt that Smarty Jones was ridden foolishly while being tackled by opponents on both sides a few times in the race. Birdstone was as lucky a horse as you will see win a race.
His "bad ride" in the belmont was way overblown. The fractions were not fast for a 12 furlong race and birdstone passed him pretty easily in the stretch.
ghostyapper
05-05-2008, 08:02 PM
I'll see if I can find a replay of the race. All I remember is betting Smarty like crazy to place and show and seeing Birdstone flying down the stretch like he could run all day and then kicking myself in the ass for not betting the Dual Qualifier. :bang:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=a4Z49x11smk
His "bad ride" in the belmont was way overblown. The fractions were not fast for a 12 furlong race and birdstone passed him pretty easily in the stretch.
He basically crushed Rock Hard Ten (and Eddington). Those two turned out to be pretty darn good horses, especially Rock Hard Ten. I'm not sure how anyone could watch that race and say that wasn't a brutal trip.
ghostyapper
05-05-2008, 08:22 PM
He basically crushed Rock Hard Ten (and Eddington). Those two turned out to be pretty darn good horses, especially Rock Hard Ten. I'm not sure how anyone could watch that race and say that wasn't a brutal trip.
Tell me what was brutal about it. He wasn't wide and the fractions were not fast. He got a dream start when both of the horses inside him broke slow allowing him a 3-4 wide path on the turn.
He was pressed by both rock hard ten and eddington but the only thing that prevented was a crawling pace. He entered the stretch on the rail with a clear lead and was run down. Very little "luck" was involved in the outcome of that race.
The horse fended off three different challenges, two from a very good horse that was buried from his efforts. Between horses is not comfortable for many horses.
The fractions can be debated. It is really tough to say if they were fast or not since the distance is run so rarely. I am pretty positive the 3/4 was very fast with half the race yet to be run. Just watch Eliot's hands, it tells a lot.
If I run 5k and decide to basically sprint the 3rd kilometer, I'll be dead the last two regardless of what happened earlier.
Vinnie
05-05-2008, 08:59 PM
CJ,
You are right on the money with Smarty Jones. He took on and dispatched several horses and there Best Shots early on and well into the race only to get beat by a late closing Birdstone. Birdstone was indeed a lucky recipient in winning due to such events. CJ, I have long admired your expertise in figures and capping. Is there an honest to goodness way to figure out figures-wise how Big Brown actually ran with all that he was up against coming from the #20 post in the Derby? Visually, it was a monstrous race and my hat is off to this colt... WOW! I don't care what some of the naysayers are saying that was truly one terrific and special effort to behold from BB!! :)
The Hawk
05-05-2008, 09:25 PM
Since I have been doing this for a long time, I happen to know that Beyer doesn't normally change the variant just because a race is at 10f. They run the distance fairly often at Churchill.
I know he doesn't. I didn't say he did. I was implying that if he did, it was no big deal, despite what conspiracy theorists mihgt argue. They run 10f at distance occasionally, not fairly often.
Now, keep in mind, he is saying Big Brown ran faster than he did in the Florida Derby while much wider and carrying more weight than he ever had before. He is also giving Eight Belles a lifetime best. So, I hardly disagreed without looking at many factors. I don't talk about my figures here much anymore, but I can guarantee you I am MUCH, MUCH better than any computer generated numbers.
If you make your own figures and yours are NOT much, much better than computer figures you should find another line of work. Virtually ANYONE who makes their own figures is better than a computer figure.
He basically crushed Rock Hard Ten (and Eddington). Those two turned out to be pretty darn good horses, especially Rock Hard Ten. I'm not sure how anyone could watch that race and say that wasn't a brutal trip.
I thought it was one of the most courageous losing efforts I had seen in a long time. I would have loved to have seen him run later.
highnote
05-05-2008, 10:25 PM
The horse fended off three different challenges, two from a very good horse that was buried from his efforts.
Champions can fend off challenges. He tried to make the lead before the first turn. What the hell was the hurry?
Purge got the lead on the rail with Rock Hard Ten in second in the two path. Smarty could have sat in a garden spot third, but his jock chose to take him to the front. Or else Smarty couldn't rate. If he can't rate and is just a one dimensional speedster then it isn't surprising he couldn't get 12 furlongs.
Smarty ran a great race and showed his class, but Birdstone was no slouch and deserved the win.
Let's not forget, Birdstone won the Travers.
Between horses is not comfortable for many horses.
That is another reason why Smarty didn't deserve the Triple Crown. A TC champion should be fearless.
The fractions can be debated. It is really tough to say if they were fast or not since the distance is run so rarely. I am pretty positive the 3/4 was very fast with half the race yet to be run. Just watch Eliot's hands, it tells a lot.
I've seen hundreds of live races at Belmont. The pace looked pretty quick to me. 12 second furlongs is a pretty good clip, but not unusually fast. Durkin said during the call that the pace was soft.
It looked to me in the replay that Smarty broke well and his jock took him right to the front. Maybe not the best place to be in a 12 furlong championship race with other speed in the race.
Birdstone looked like he could have run another half mile without a problem. He might have beat the field by 30 lengths if the race was 2 miles.
Smarty started wobbling a little after about 10 furlongs when Bird was on coming upon him from the outside. Then Smarty's stride started to shorten.
In my opinion, Birdstone was more suited to 12 furlongs than Smarty.
There is a reason so few horses can win the Triple Crown. They have to be fast. They have to have stamina. They need good connections and some luck.
Do you remember Favorite Trick? He was a Derby favorite. Won the BC Juvenile. He was 8 and 0 as a two year old and I think he was undefeated coming into the Derby. He won on every surface -- fast and sloppy and at several different tracks. He was versatile. No matter what was thrown at him he could handle it.
His only limitation was his stamina.
He sired thoroughbreds and quarter horses. He was built like a thin quarter horse. He was by Phone Trick. I saw Phone Trick at stud. He was a short little runt of a horse. Probably speedy as hell in his day. But he'd have been lucky to stay a mile. So it wasn't surprising that Favorite Trick wouldn't stay a mile and a quarter.
So my point is that Birdstone was more suited to 12 furlongs than Smarty. Bird was one of the best 3 year olds in the country. He deserves credit for winning the Belmont.
All those Sartin pace people know that it's the horse that runs the race -- not the jock. Birdstone was the better horse over 12 furlongs.
Burls
05-05-2008, 10:35 PM
I will Never forgive Jerry Bailey for that either............ son of a bitch sacrificed his horse in collusion with the other rider..........I forget who it was.............but I thought Bailey had more class than that
It was Alex Solis.
Bruddah
05-06-2008, 12:07 AM
He basically crushed Rock Hard Ten (and Eddington). Those two turned out to be pretty darn good horses, especially Rock Hard Ten. I'm not sure how anyone could watch that race and say that wasn't a brutal trip.
I just watched the replay. I thought Stuart moved way too early and then successfully turned back both fierce competitors. From start to finish, Smarty never had an easy 1/8 or 1/4. Stuart continued to ride Smarty all out, until there was nothing left in the tank. Birdstone was a grinder bred for the distance. It wasn't just one factor but an accumulatation of several, which beat Smarty. Modify even one of them just slightly and Smarty would have been a Triple Crown Champion. (JMHO)
Conclusion: It was a brutal trip and I hope Smarty sires some good babies.
P.S. Because of his entire 3 yo Campaign, he is my favorite horse of the last 20 years. Therfore, I could be a little prejudiced. :ThmbUp:
highnote
05-06-2008, 12:14 AM
It wasn't just one factor but an accumulatation of several, which beat Smarty. Modify even one of them just slightly and Smarty would have been a Triple Crown Champion. (JMHO)
Possibly. It was a gutsy, classy performance by Smarty. However, Birdstone was a great horse, too. He won the Belmont and the Travers. Smarty was unlucky to have to face a horse the calibre of Bird.
Lucky for Big Brown there does not appear to be a Birdstone looming on his horizon.
PaceAdvantage
05-06-2008, 01:25 AM
When I saw the overhead version of the race, it looked pretty clear that Big Brown had a dream trip the whole race.
The only shortcoming was that he had to run a little extra distance when he went 3-wide around the first turn.3-wide? I suggest you watch the race again. He had three horses to his inside, and they were pretty spaced out going into that first turn....
SeattleSlew@BP
05-06-2008, 01:35 AM
I can't watch the '04 Belmont without blowing a gasket at all the stupid shit that took place. And I'm not even a Smarty fan. Bad ride, collusion from other jocks, and somehow he still almost won. Think the winner got the slowest fig there since Commendable.
JPinMaryland
05-06-2008, 01:47 AM
Gee whiz as I recall Smarty ran the fastest internal mile in the history of the Belmont. :bang:
Maybe I am not remembering this right :confused:
Bruddah
05-06-2008, 02:21 AM
Possibly. It was a gutsy, classy performance by Smarty. However, Birdstone was a great horse, too. He won the Belmont and the Travers. Smarty was unlucky to have to face a horse the calibre of Bird.
Lucky for Big Brown there does not appear to be a Birdstone looming on his horizon.
It took a Quality horse, bred to run all day to beat Smarty that day. Except for the Bird, Smarty beat back all the other factors he faced in the race.
There may be a Birdstone in BB's future, by the name of Tomcito. I like his chances. He is another that can run all day. Whether he is good enough to defeat BB is another question. If he does, it will be because BB either bounces or has problems with his feet. Again time will tell. I do think BB is the real deal and it will take factors other than talent to beat him.
Burls
05-06-2008, 02:21 AM
3-wide? I suggest you watch the race again. He had three horses to his inside, and they were pretty spaced out going into that first turn....
I don't know how I could do that.
I saw the overhead on the television on NBC.
I thought I remembered seeing three streams of horses.
Is my memory is shot already?
PaceAdvantage
05-06-2008, 03:48 AM
jBeoZUsnXdc
As you can see, BB had three horses to his inside, and the rail horse was positioned one path OFF the rail....plus they were all kinda spaced out a bit....
BB went very wide into that first turn....at least 4-wide, maybe 5....
jonnielu
05-06-2008, 07:15 AM
It didn't hurt that Smarty Jones was ridden foolishly while being tackled by opponents on both sides a few times in the race. Birdstone was as lucky a horse as you will see win a race.
Shouldn't you be bitching about the thread being taken off track, instead of making ignorant statements like that?
Want to make a good bet in a long race? Just put your $20 on the slowest horse. Luck and track surfaces have nothing to do with it.
jdl
nobeyerspls
05-06-2008, 07:44 AM
When slow horses beat fast horses there has to be a reason. Unfortunately, we can't always know the reason. However, in the case of Birdstone and Smarty Jones I think I can offer up a good explanation.
Given his pedigree, it is not surprising to me that Birdstone could outrun Smarty over 12 furlongs.
I was being facetious when I used the term "slow" for Birdstone. In a different forum I called his Belmont win before that race for several reasons. I saw him win an allowance race at GP off a layoff earlier that year and was most impressed. I think he was asigned an 88 figure for the race but that didn't matter to me. In a Derby prep on a sealed track he performed badly as the favorite. Lost two shoes during the race. Then Zito took some time off with him and waited in the weeds with long conditioning on the Saratoga training track. He had won at Belmont before and was catching a favorite coming off of two tough races. Later posts on here blamed the ride that Smarty Jones got but nothing would have put him ahead of Birdstone at the wire.
His breeding helped of course but he was not slow. Dave Litfin, a beyer devotee, called him a low fig horse. He wasn't assigned a high number until his Travers win. That race is a good example of an incorrect gap in the odds due to beyer speed figures.
SeattleSlew@BP
05-06-2008, 01:35 PM
Gee whiz as I recall Smarty ran the fastest internal mile in the history of the Belmont. :bang:
Maybe I am not remembering this right :confused:
You are correct
highnote
05-06-2008, 01:37 PM
???? Is he correct that it was the fastest internal mile? Or is he correct that he is not remembering right ????
SeattleSlew@BP
05-06-2008, 01:39 PM
???? Is he correct that it was the fastest internal mile? Or is he correct that he is not remembering right ????
He is correct it was the fastest internal mile in Belmont history
Shouldn't you be bitching about the thread being taken off track, instead of making ignorant statements like that?
Want to make a good bet in a long race? Just put your $20 on the slowest horse. Luck and track surfaces have nothing to do with it.
jdl
I'm sure you bet Birdstone as well as every other horse that ever paid off in the win slot.
The day I need betting advice from you is the day I take up jai alai. Hell, I'd start playing jai alai.
jonnielu
05-06-2008, 08:08 PM
I'm sure you bet Birdstone as well as every other horse that ever paid off in the win slot.
The day I need betting advice from you is the day I take up jai alai. Hell, I'd start playing jai alai.
And I'll never bet that the track ever changes in your favor.
jdl
joanied
05-06-2008, 09:38 PM
It took a Quality horse, bred to run all day to beat Smarty that day. Except for the Bird, Smarty beat back all the other factors he faced in the race.
There may be a Birdstone in BB's future, by the name of Tomcito. I like his chances. He is another that can run all day. Whether he is good enough to defeat BB is another question. If he does, it will be because BB either bounces or has problems with his feet. Again time will tell. I do think BB is the real deal and it will take factors other than talent to beat him.
This has been a fasinating thread to read through... I have two things I'd like to say, short but sweet... I beleive Smarty did get a bad ride that day...
As for BB's Belmont Stakes...if he wins the Preakness (yes!!)...I agree with Bruddah...BB will have a "Bird' in the field...and he's already at Belmont..Tomcito is my big fear...he may screw :( :( up another Triple Crown bid.
classhandicapper
05-08-2008, 05:52 PM
He basically crushed Rock Hard Ten (and Eddington). Those two turned out to be pretty darn good horses, especially Rock Hard Ten. I'm not sure how anyone could watch that race and say that wasn't a brutal trip.
I am entirely with CJ on this one.
rrbauer
05-09-2008, 01:54 PM
Point A. - Variance in race times at any particular track is not produced by the track surface. Assigning variance to the track surface is nonsense in the first place.
Point B. - Figure-makers are compounding guess one that variance does lie in the surface with guess # two on how much the surface affected any given performance.
Point C. - Figure-making is an expression of race time in the first place, and race time is, by nature, in a state of flux. To make a hard, accurate, and useable figure that is consistently correct, you would need to find the actual source of variance and address it and/or account for it in a way that can be consistently justified with results as they are.
In other words, when the results consistently match your predictions, across all classes, and all odds levels, with perhaps fewer then 10% of horse race results mystifying you, then you have found the true and correct source of variance.
But, go ahead and dismiss these ideas as the arrogance of a lunatic madman, and don't spend two minutes thinking about the little bit I am saying here. I am an old 5 - 1 guy, I really enjoy that my cashing range has been moved up to 10 - 1.
jdl
PA must like the money you pay to be an "authorized advertiser" because there isn't any other reason that I can see to give you access to this site.
Your gobbledygook posts sure haven't whipped up a lot of support for whatever it is that you're selling.
IMHO of course.
raybo
05-09-2008, 11:21 PM
Just my 2 cents worth on Big Brown's trip.
Personally, I agree with the earlier poster who said that Dutrow made a wise decision in choosing the 20 hole. I think he knew BB was a cinch to win the Derby if he could just stay out of trouble. The 20 hole , IMO, was the safest hole of the bunch, no horses to his right and no rail to his left. All he had to really worry about was horses drifting wide and in that case he would have just had to run a little wider. Running wide, I don't believe, even concerned the trainer(or the jockey). They both knew what they had, they just had to get him to the front safely.
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