jonnielu
05-03-2008, 09:16 AM
08 Derby Analysis
10th - 10fD KY Derby
# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
9 20 96 3 105 - BIG BROWN
I believe that early speed holding up well is a reflection of the horses abilities and not any change in the track. Notice yesterday that speed also did well on the turf.
Big Brown has a monster rating going into the Derby and I believe that the post will help rather then hurt. We have already seen him put his early speed abilty to good use, and we will likely see it again. Desoumeroux holds this race in his hands.
Since War Pass became completely forked for this race, Zito will pursue the original plan with Tale of Ekati doing the jack rabbit work for Cool Coal man, coming off of that sharp 6f work in the BG. These two have to make a run for it to protect their positions, advantage to BB, having the tactical speed and ability to run up the outside and shoot the gap going into the first turn to have the rail coming into the backstretch. I fear that there will be none behind him that possess the ability that will allow them to "bring it" far enough through the stretch.
Unfortunately, this includes Pyro.
We may see a race reminiscient of Secretariat's Preakness.
My Daughter Marie has been in charge of isolating Derby contenders for several years and she comes up with:
my top 3:
1. Big Brown
2. Tale of Ekati
3. Cool Coal Man
jdl dhtmled0:b.gif (http://www.solutionsoft.com/htmlhelp.htm) dhtmled0:b.gif (http://www.solutionsoft.com/perl.htm)
10th - 10fD KY Derby
# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
9 20 96 3 105 - BIG BROWN
I believe that early speed holding up well is a reflection of the horses abilities and not any change in the track. Notice yesterday that speed also did well on the turf.
Big Brown has a monster rating going into the Derby and I believe that the post will help rather then hurt. We have already seen him put his early speed abilty to good use, and we will likely see it again. Desoumeroux holds this race in his hands.
Since War Pass became completely forked for this race, Zito will pursue the original plan with Tale of Ekati doing the jack rabbit work for Cool Coal man, coming off of that sharp 6f work in the BG. These two have to make a run for it to protect their positions, advantage to BB, having the tactical speed and ability to run up the outside and shoot the gap going into the first turn to have the rail coming into the backstretch. I fear that there will be none behind him that possess the ability that will allow them to "bring it" far enough through the stretch.
Unfortunately, this includes Pyro.
We may see a race reminiscient of Secretariat's Preakness.
My Daughter Marie has been in charge of isolating Derby contenders for several years and she comes up with:
my top 3:
1. Big Brown
2. Tale of Ekati
3. Cool Coal Man
jdl dhtmled0:b.gif (http://www.solutionsoft.com/htmlhelp.htm) dhtmled0:b.gif (http://www.solutionsoft.com/perl.htm)