Redboarders Selections

[rastajenk]

I know, I know, there are plenty of threads soliciting the people's picks. This one is calling out those who have all the answers later...in advance. You know who you are. :p Time to chime in.

Specifically I'm looking for zilzal's and johnniedl's analysis, but any known redboarder is welcome to lay it on the line. Time's running out. It's kinda like politics: if you don't vote, you can't gripe. :jump: If you got all the answers, share. :D

[BeatTheChalk]

I know, I know, there are plenty of threads soliciting the people's picks. This one is calling out those who have all the answers later...in advance. You know who you are. :p Time to chime in.

Specifically I'm looking for zilzal's and johnniedl's analysis, but any known redboarder is welcome to lay it on the line. Time's running out. It's kinda like politics: if you don't vote, you can't gripe. :jump: If you got all the answers, share. :D

In honor of shudda wudda cudda .. My selection is The Colonel. His
workout this week stunned even the most cynical critical types around
the backstretch at CD. :eek:

[FunkyMonkey]

okay,

am going out on a real limb here...BB will win the derby.

distance of victory anywhere from 3-7 lengths.:cool:

final prediction: he will not race again after this race.

what the hell...might as well be provocative...nobody pays any attention to the ones you get wrong anyway...they just get buried with the rest of the erroneous bunch of misfired attempts at getting some "i told you so" credibility.

[jonnielu]

I know, I know, there are plenty of threads soliciting the people's picks. This one is calling out those who have all the answers later...in advance. You know who you are. :p Time to chime in.

Specifically I'm looking for zilzal's and johnniedl's analysis, but any known redboarder is welcome to lay it on the line. Time's running out. It's kinda like politics: if you don't vote, you can't gripe. :jump: If you got all the answers, share. :D

cite one redboard, please.

jdl

[Boris]

So I won't be tempted to "tolduso":

I'm alive in the Oaks/Derby double to the 5, 7, 10, 13, 18, 19. Smallest return will be over $400. I'm happy with 30% of the field, and won't push any more money at this race.

Good Luck

[098poi]

I was going to start a thread similar to this so I will just post here. My thread was not about redboarding as much as looking to tomorrow and saying looking back what did we miss. The most frustrating thing about horseracing is that after the fact everything becomes obvious!



This is primarily about Big Brown. On the one hand seems like obvious contender and winner. Throw in poor post and 3 lifetime starts and maybe not such a sure thing. Per Mr. Beyer on his chat at DRF when asked about that stat and his dismissal of Curlin last year he said, “He was the best horse of his generation, but he still couldn't win the Derby with only 3 career starts.”



With Mr. B as a transition I looked at the past 5 Derby’s and made a list of horses that had one Beyer at 100 or more and the next with more than one at 100 or more. The third column is total with at least one Beyer at or over 100. The numbers are percentages relative to field size. The last column is how many Beyers the winner had at or over 100 coming in to the race.



YEAR 100 or better(1) 100 or better(2 or more) Total Winner coming in to race



2007........ 30%................... 15%....................... 45%.................. 2

2006........ 25%................... 35%....................... 60%.................. 2

2005 ........30% ....................15% ......................45% ..................0

2004 ........40% ....................40% .......................80% .................3

2003........ 41% ....................29% .......................70%................. 2





Now let’s look at his year



2008 .........20% ..................15% ........................35%



Big Brown has 2 Beyer’s of 106! The point is that this field looks weak (as has been noticed by others) relative to recent years. So tomorrow if BB destroys the field, even with only 3 starts do you bang your head against the wall and say it was so obvious. Or if he gets soundly beaten due not to his ability but from lack of seasoning combined with the poor post, do you say, “The Derby knows what the Derby knows, I should have listened!”



Suggestion, buy a helmet to wear before the Derby. Use money that you would have wagered (since no one can wager on the Derby anyway) and buy stock in Tylenol. I am sure it will be up by Monday!!!

[Marlin]

Street Sense!!

[rastajenk]

cite one redboard, please.jdl

How 'bout your lengthy Lexington post-mortem?

[russowen77]

Excuse my ignorance. But what exactly is a redboarder? I would like to know since I have been recently called one.

[Tee]

One who has all the answers after the race has been run, but nothing to show beforehand.

Excuse my ignorance. But what exactly is a redboarder? I would like to know since I have been recently called one.

[russowen77]

One who has all the answers after the race has been run, but nothing to show beforehand.

Thanks, I had no clue.

[jonnielu]

How 'bout your lengthy Lexington post-mortem?

I don't recall posting about the Lexington, do you mean the Bluegrass??

jdl

[rastajenk]

Page 3, post 34 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46069)

[098poi]

I was going to start a thread similar to this so I will just post here. My thread was not about redboarding as much as looking to tomorrow and saying looking back what did we miss. The most frustrating thing about horseracing is that after the fact everything becomes obvious!



This is primarily about Big Brown. On the one hand seems like obvious contender and winner. Throw in poor post and 3 lifetime starts and maybe not such a sure thing. Per Mr. Beyer on his chat at DRF when asked about that stat and his dismissal of Curlin last year he said, “He was the best horse of his generation, but he still couldn't win the Derby with only 3 career starts.”



With Mr. B as a transition I looked at the past 5 Derby’s and made a list of horses that had one Beyer at 100 or more and the next with more than one at 100 or more. The third column is total with at least one Beyer at or over 100. The numbers are percentages relative to field size. The last column is how many Beyers the winner had at or over 100 coming in to the race.



YEAR 100 or better(1) 100 or better(2 or more) Total Winner coming in to race



2007........ 30%................... 15%....................... 45%.................. 2

2006........ 25%................... 35%....................... 60%.................. 2

2005 ........30% ....................15% ......................45% ..................0

2004 ........40% ....................40% .......................80% .................3

2003........ 41% ....................29% .......................70%................. 2





Now let’s look at his year



2008 .........20% ..................15% ........................35%



Big Brown has 2 Beyer’s of 106! The point is that this field looks weak (as has been noticed by others) relative to recent years. So tomorrow if BB destroys the field, even with only 3 starts do you bang your head against the wall and say it was so obvious. Or if he gets soundly beaten due not to his ability but from lack of seasoning combined with the poor post, do you say, “The Derby knows what the Derby knows, I should have listened!”



Suggestion, buy a helmet to wear before the Derby. Use money that you would have wagered (since no one can wager on the Derby anyway) and buy stock in Tylenol. I am sure it will be up by Monday!!!

I guess it was obvious to everyone (the public) except me!!!:bang:

[jonnielu]

Page 3, post 34 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46069)

You would need to explain how you figure that would qualify as a redboard, Niko asked if a horse showed well in any other ratings. Where is the redboard? Also, that chart, just as it appears, went to a couple of members of this board on the morning of the race. Where is the redboard?

jdl

[Marlin]

Big Brown.