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Tape Reader
05-02-2008, 09:21 PM
Hi all,

5th race at Hollywood Park tonight, number 3:
ML: 20-1
10 MTP: 10-1
0 MTP: 20-1
Last flash: 14-1

Wire to wire easy winner. Luv it!

PaceAdvantage
05-03-2008, 03:42 PM
I don't understand the point. Late money has been tracked for decades as a possible indicator of intent.

Nowadays, sitting at home on the internet, you can place your bet at the LAST POSSIBLE MOMENT, so why would it be shocking if a big bet comes in at the last moment?

And for the record, I saw a winning horse's odds GO UP during the race yesterday at Belmont....

Tape Reader
05-03-2008, 04:57 PM
Sorry, PA, I should have made my point clearer. What I meant is that I truly love it as a board reader. This horse took "unusual" money early from ML 20-1, to 10-1 with ten minutes to go. It was confirmed in the last flash with another "unusual" bet knocking it down from 20 to 14.

Overlay
05-03-2008, 05:04 PM
As PA noted, odds can go up at the last flash, too, which is a bonus if the horse's pre-flash odds made the horse playable to begin with, and one would hope that such up-versus-down breaks would even out over time. But the last flash might also make the difference between the horse going from a non-playable underlay to a playable overlay according to your line, when it's too late to do anything about it, even with the possibility of split-second transactions. I don't mean to get into the realm of tote-reading, but I'm sure there must be formal statistical studies correlating last-flash patterns (especially on big droppers) with actual results. Does anyone know where such data might be available?