Stevie Belmont
05-02-2008, 02:30 PM
ThrorughbredZones Kentucky Derby Preview
We have been watching them all winter and spring with the Top 12...This is how things could go down at Churchill Downs
Contenders
Big Brown- Most talented horse in race
Cowboy Cal-Sleeper with tactical speed
Z Fortune-Strong race in Arkansas Derby
Monba-Well bred to get distance
Colonel John-Should be there late
Tale of Ekati-Well bred to get distance
Could use these in a 6-horse exacta box. Any horse at all you like can be used under in bottom of tris and supers. That’s how you get the big pay out.
Top Pick
Many are running from this one, but the best horse in the race is Big Brown. No horse has run as fast and has looked better then Big Brown. History is against him, but history was against him in at Gulfstream and it history was against Rags To Riches, Street Sense and Funny Cide. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winning jockey and will be outside of any trouble, horses speed will get him right up front with ease. Probable short price, but he is the horse to still beat and we will not run from him. Post 20 still goes against my handicapping principles, but has time to get over, if he is as good as they say he is, he will win. Dutrow knows the horse and sees him everyday. He knows what he has and he is not shy about it. If someone is telling you how good he is, why doubt it. Will either look like a champ or chump if things don’t go his way after running his mouth. Has done it before and he has been right on. A win play is probably not the way to go. Will use on top in tris and zactas as well as some of the others mentioned here. Spread in pick plays.
1 Cool Coal Man - Winner over Churchill Downs. Has yet to show that he is fast enough to win the Derby, brutal post-Not Using
2 Tale Of Ekati- Came home slow in the Wood Memorial. One of the best bred horses in the race and will get a grinding prolonged stretch run, will need the right pace scenario, poor post-User and saver win play
3 Anak Nakal- Huge stretch to win here, possible the longest shot on the board, behind in the class department-Not Using
4 Court Vision- Another who came out of the slow Wood Memorial. Fast Churchill work. Adds blinkers and figures to be closer to the lead this time. Is he fast enough remains the question-Slow Remsen as well would -Use under
5 Eight Belles- The only filly in the race. Large filly at that. Does not look to be fast enough for these. Bred to get distance. Porter wants a Derby badly, but may not be the year-Not using
6 Z Fortune- Sleeper. If you like Gayego you should like Z Fortune, galloped out past Gayego with a determined stretch run. He could regress, but he looks like he will get the distance. A User under and a savor win play.
7 Big Truck- New York bred needs to kick it up several notches in the speed department to get a piece of this. Probably not fast enough and distance looks iffy-Not Using
8 Visionaire- Consistent closer who has yet to run a real clunker, last on poly is a toss for several. Looks to be among one of the horses coming with a late kick, a horse to have in exotics at a price if he comes with a run- User
9 Pyro- The Jekyl and Hyde horse of the Derby, toss his last and he might have been the favorite. Never won a race over 1 1/16 and is still a question mark at 1 ¼..And still have doubts as to weather he is fast enough could get a piece in the right pace scenario-User
10 Colonel John- Solid form from the son of Tiznow. Strong closing move to win Santa Anita Derby. Galloped out strongly, still a question on dirt, logical choice in the top spot, User Either on top and/or under
11 Z Humor- Could show some speed, has really never done anything to indicate he can win here, would need a career best effort to fact-Not Using
12 Smooth Air- Only horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Solid tactical speed, distance looks to be his undoing and coming off fever are negatives. Not Using
13 Bob Black Jack- Ran right behind Gayego and Colonel John. This guy is fast and certainly figures to be gunned to the lead, could make a major impact in the pace scenario, but staying the 1 ¼ under the expected pressure looks to be overwhelming. Not Using.
14 Monba- One of the biggest question marks in the race, superb breeding and bred to run all day, won at a 1 1/8 and looks to make a late bid again, Pletcher is flying under the radar, and a winner at Churchill, horse will have to prove he is fast enough, but could very well get in there if he runs to his breeding-User
15 Adriano- Viewed primarily as a turf and synthetic horse, will have to prove in can handle the dirt in the biggest race of them all, Nice stride, but looks like he is another who lacks the speed to win. – Not Using
16 Denis of Cork-Ran a flat Illinois Derby, stone closer looked good early on, but looks like he is not tight enough for this and we doubt his kick will be as effective at a 1 ¼-Not Using
Cowboy Cal- Another sleeper at a price, has run some of the fastest races of any horse in the race, all be it on grass, solid stalk/tactical speed and looks to have a pedigree that says yes to a 1 ¼, should be in the picture for most of the race, possibly the biggest dark horse in the race, never been on dirt, his sire Giants Causeway ran a game second in the BC Classic-User and saver win.
Recapturetheglory- Another one of the early pace factor horses, had an easy win in the Illinois Derby and received a solid speed figure, will not encounter the same trip in Derby. Will have to get over from post, should begin to struggle as he approaches the top of the turn-Not Using
Gayego- Arkansas Derby winner proved he can run on dirt, as consistent as they come, but getting the 1 1/14 looks to be a huge issue, being by Gilded Time, and looked a little tired after the Arkansas Derby-Not Using
Big Brown- The most talented horse in the race, will have to use that talent to win from post 20, he has shown he can run fast early and keep it going late, will try to get over and sit off the leaders and make a bid, connections confident and as a player it nice to know that, right trip most logical winner, post 20 is still tough. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winner and knows the Churchill ropes- Top Choice User top and bottom
We have been watching them all winter and spring with the Top 12...This is how things could go down at Churchill Downs
Contenders
Big Brown- Most talented horse in race
Cowboy Cal-Sleeper with tactical speed
Z Fortune-Strong race in Arkansas Derby
Monba-Well bred to get distance
Colonel John-Should be there late
Tale of Ekati-Well bred to get distance
Could use these in a 6-horse exacta box. Any horse at all you like can be used under in bottom of tris and supers. That’s how you get the big pay out.
Top Pick
Many are running from this one, but the best horse in the race is Big Brown. No horse has run as fast and has looked better then Big Brown. History is against him, but history was against him in at Gulfstream and it history was against Rags To Riches, Street Sense and Funny Cide. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winning jockey and will be outside of any trouble, horses speed will get him right up front with ease. Probable short price, but he is the horse to still beat and we will not run from him. Post 20 still goes against my handicapping principles, but has time to get over, if he is as good as they say he is, he will win. Dutrow knows the horse and sees him everyday. He knows what he has and he is not shy about it. If someone is telling you how good he is, why doubt it. Will either look like a champ or chump if things don’t go his way after running his mouth. Has done it before and he has been right on. A win play is probably not the way to go. Will use on top in tris and zactas as well as some of the others mentioned here. Spread in pick plays.
1 Cool Coal Man - Winner over Churchill Downs. Has yet to show that he is fast enough to win the Derby, brutal post-Not Using
2 Tale Of Ekati- Came home slow in the Wood Memorial. One of the best bred horses in the race and will get a grinding prolonged stretch run, will need the right pace scenario, poor post-User and saver win play
3 Anak Nakal- Huge stretch to win here, possible the longest shot on the board, behind in the class department-Not Using
4 Court Vision- Another who came out of the slow Wood Memorial. Fast Churchill work. Adds blinkers and figures to be closer to the lead this time. Is he fast enough remains the question-Slow Remsen as well would -Use under
5 Eight Belles- The only filly in the race. Large filly at that. Does not look to be fast enough for these. Bred to get distance. Porter wants a Derby badly, but may not be the year-Not using
6 Z Fortune- Sleeper. If you like Gayego you should like Z Fortune, galloped out past Gayego with a determined stretch run. He could regress, but he looks like he will get the distance. A User under and a savor win play.
7 Big Truck- New York bred needs to kick it up several notches in the speed department to get a piece of this. Probably not fast enough and distance looks iffy-Not Using
8 Visionaire- Consistent closer who has yet to run a real clunker, last on poly is a toss for several. Looks to be among one of the horses coming with a late kick, a horse to have in exotics at a price if he comes with a run- User
9 Pyro- The Jekyl and Hyde horse of the Derby, toss his last and he might have been the favorite. Never won a race over 1 1/16 and is still a question mark at 1 ¼..And still have doubts as to weather he is fast enough could get a piece in the right pace scenario-User
10 Colonel John- Solid form from the son of Tiznow. Strong closing move to win Santa Anita Derby. Galloped out strongly, still a question on dirt, logical choice in the top spot, User Either on top and/or under
11 Z Humor- Could show some speed, has really never done anything to indicate he can win here, would need a career best effort to fact-Not Using
12 Smooth Air- Only horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Solid tactical speed, distance looks to be his undoing and coming off fever are negatives. Not Using
13 Bob Black Jack- Ran right behind Gayego and Colonel John. This guy is fast and certainly figures to be gunned to the lead, could make a major impact in the pace scenario, but staying the 1 ¼ under the expected pressure looks to be overwhelming. Not Using.
14 Monba- One of the biggest question marks in the race, superb breeding and bred to run all day, won at a 1 1/8 and looks to make a late bid again, Pletcher is flying under the radar, and a winner at Churchill, horse will have to prove he is fast enough, but could very well get in there if he runs to his breeding-User
15 Adriano- Viewed primarily as a turf and synthetic horse, will have to prove in can handle the dirt in the biggest race of them all, Nice stride, but looks like he is another who lacks the speed to win. – Not Using
16 Denis of Cork-Ran a flat Illinois Derby, stone closer looked good early on, but looks like he is not tight enough for this and we doubt his kick will be as effective at a 1 ¼-Not Using
Cowboy Cal- Another sleeper at a price, has run some of the fastest races of any horse in the race, all be it on grass, solid stalk/tactical speed and looks to have a pedigree that says yes to a 1 ¼, should be in the picture for most of the race, possibly the biggest dark horse in the race, never been on dirt, his sire Giants Causeway ran a game second in the BC Classic-User and saver win.
Recapturetheglory- Another one of the early pace factor horses, had an easy win in the Illinois Derby and received a solid speed figure, will not encounter the same trip in Derby. Will have to get over from post, should begin to struggle as he approaches the top of the turn-Not Using
Gayego- Arkansas Derby winner proved he can run on dirt, as consistent as they come, but getting the 1 1/14 looks to be a huge issue, being by Gilded Time, and looked a little tired after the Arkansas Derby-Not Using
Big Brown- The most talented horse in the race, will have to use that talent to win from post 20, he has shown he can run fast early and keep it going late, will try to get over and sit off the leaders and make a bid, connections confident and as a player it nice to know that, right trip most logical winner, post 20 is still tough. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winner and knows the Churchill ropes- Top Choice User top and bottom