Who Are Your Top Derby Choices?

[winningponies]

For the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many. There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit (as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside. Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like a surprise pick to some but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest, and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.

Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys, but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.

Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track), and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.

[nobeyerspls]

It's the morning before Derby day and it's still too early to finalize a selection. For some of the entrants, surface condition is a huge issue. I need to see if they get the rain they expect and if the track will be drying out by post time. Given the right surface I expect a strong showing by Court Vision.

[Robert Fischer]

Big Brown
Eight Belles

[Bubbles]

Colonel John, followed by Eight Belles, Z Fortune, and/or Monba underneath.

[LemonSoupKid]

On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.

Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?

LemonSoupKid

[shanta]

To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!

Pyro

[Semipro]

To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!

PyroMaybe you just don't do it Pyro won't hit the board will prove to be the pig.

[46zilzal]

To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!



Regression in the last two says otherwise.

[Bruddah]

Win...Visionaire
Plc....Colonel John (box the top two)
shw...Pyro-Eight Belles-Big Brown- Gayego-Z Fortune (trifecta-Super)

$2 tri part wheel

8-10
8-10
5-6-9-20
5-6-9-20 (trifecta-Super) :ThmbUp:

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys my top pick is colonial john won in same spd as big brown.My second would be#2 he could he can run as fast as #20 pace wise.And then thrid choice would be big brown he show's everything.But i think could very well bounce.Which think he will.Exacta box #2 #10 #20

[chickenhead]

key part wheel in all slots, several times

pyro -- garbage truck brigade

[winningponies]

On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.

Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?

LemonSoupKid

LemonSoupKid, we are also surprised that there has been not much talk regarding a possible wet track.

It seems like there is 50% chance of precipitation all day today, and 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms starting at about 11pm and through the night. For tomorrow, it seems like 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms in the morning up to 11am and then 70% chance from 11am on.

[ny0707ny]

Colonel John is the only horse I like. Last year I picked Hard Spun.

[Marshall Bennett]

1. ZFortune
2. Big Brown
3. Pyro
4. Visionaire

[LemonSoupKid]

The wet track hurts C. John, methinks

I'll post my picks tonight.

Lemon

[kev]

Denis Of Cork will run huge come Derby day. ;)

[asH]

______________________________wire
Colonel John, Big Brown (DH)

Momba
Eight Bells


Recapturetheglory

Smooth Air
Court Vision
:)

[ezrabrooks]

LemonSoupKid, we are also surprised that there has been not much talk regarding a possible wet track.

It seems like there is 50% chance of precipitation all day today, and 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms starting at about 11pm and through the night. For tomorrow, it seems like 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms in the morning up to 11am and then 70% chance from 11am on.

"Are you sure about that"? (Departed)

[surfdog89]

all the way with Gayego..............:ThmbUp:

[lilmegahertz]

Colonel John

Eight Belles

Visionaire

Bob Black Jack

Not in that exact order.....

[phatbastard]

Recapturetheglory

monba

dennis of cork

big brown

[rastajenk]

Mud moves up the good ones.

[Shenanigans]

Colonel John
Eight Belles
?Adriano?
I really think Colonel John will get it, but I'd love to see a filly win. Adriano probably won't put in a showing, but I still like him.

[juanepstein]

OCHO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SeattleSlew@BP]

Z Fortune and Gayego

[winningponies]

Denis Of Cork will run huge come Derby day. ;)

kev, we also think Denis of Cork may run a big race (we have him rated best, assuming a fast track). However, it still seems like it is Big Brown's race to win (or lose), particularly since we think he hasn't really shown his full potential yet. Eight Belles also seems to have a really good shot. If the track ends up wet, Gayego may love the going.

[JustRalph]

After looking at the odds at midnight............. and with the rain and all, I gotta bet against the Favs.............except for one BBrown over all exacta ticket for 19 bucks

hopefully the odds won't change much, so I put some money on......

Tale of Ekati

Gayego

Smooth Air............who I hope isn't really that sick...... :lol: :bang:

Recapture the glory

Zhumor

I basically demanded 40-1 on a win bet. Except Gayego....who was 22-1 but I like horses coming from Oaklawn to Churchill right now.......so I took it.

I am sure the odds will change so I will get screwed somehow............

[The WindfallAngler]

Apart from my futures, and figuring $100 bankroll (and an off track):


$2 super-hi-5, cold ($2)
10
16
2
20
19


$1 superfecta ($24)
10
2 6 19
20
2 5 6 7 8 9 16 13 19


$1 trifecta ($24)
10
2 16 19 20
2 6 7 8 9 16 19


2$ trifecta ( $18 )
10
20
2 5 6 7 8 9 16 13 19


$3 exacta ($12)
10
2 16 19 20


$1 trifecta/"saver" ...in the event BB's speed stays a sloppy trip ($24)
20
2 10 16 19
2 6 7 8 9 16 19


Happy Derby Day, and

Be Well!

[Norm]

O.k., it's crunch time. No more procrastinating, it's time to choose. Here is how I see it :

1) Big Brown - he's the speed of the speed and I suspect he just might be what they say he is, an unusually talented horse. Lots of obstacles to overcome, not the least of which is his trainer, but they all have problems.

2) Gayego - he's the one (and only) horse to display good races on both polycrap and dirt which shows multi-talented ability. He had a useful 5f work in the mud at CD on 4/26 and Mike Smith in the saddle doesn't hurt. He should be rating just behind Big Brown and if that one falters this guy will take it.

3) Colonel John - best of the closers, direct male descendant of Man O' War, I wish he had run at least one race on dirt, I would like him lots better if he had. You cannot presume that a polycrap raced horse will run well on dirt 'til he actually does it as Gayego has done.

Beyond that it's a scramble going to whichever gets the 'perfect trip', any one except, Z Humor. That would be pure shock and awe should he win and proof positive that this is a poor bunch.

Bottom line ? . . . my $2 goes on Big Brown to win. (Where is Tim Tam when you need him ?)

[crestridge]

10 COLONEL 5/1
13 BOB BLACK 5/1
17 COWBOY 6/1
19 GAYEGO 5/1
20 BIG 5/1

[cucui]

Cowboy Cal/Velazquez.....:sleeping:

[Oddzilla]

Colonel John, Big Brown
Eight Belles, Gayego
Smooth Air, the kitchen sink

[Tuffmug]

Big Brown/Colonel John exacta box

[Viruss]

Derby picks and thoughts

#5 Eight bells -figs and sharp works,consistant
#6 Z Fortune-good last ,closed well in last
#10 Colonel John-great works,fast closer,fastest work out breezing
#20 Big Brown-Speed of the speed,poor post
#16 Denis of Cork- my pace match horse off the 2-18-08 race good works

Good luck racing

Earl

[GaryG]

COLONEL JOHN

[winningponies]

Derby picks and thoughts

#5 Eight bells -figs and sharp works,consistant
#6 Z Fortune-good last ,closed well in last
#10 Colonel John-great works,fast closer,fastest work out breezing
#20 Big Brown-Speed of the speed,poor post
#16 Denis of Cork- my pace match horse off the 2-18-08 race good works

Good luck racing

Earl

Earl, looks like we both like a lot of the same horses. Good luck to both of us :)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

... as I probably won't be down on the Derby this year for the first time in decades.

10 COLONEL JOHN
16 DENIS OF CORK
05 EIGHT BELLES

[singunner]

Eight Belles
Big Brown
Smooth Air
Gayego
Colonel John
Cowboy Cal
Court Vision
Bob Black Jack
Recapturetheglory
Tale of Ekati
Cool Coal Man
Adriano
Visionaire
Z Fortune
Pyro
Z Humor
Denis of Cork
Anak Nakal
Big Truck
Monba

Not the most exciting output selections, but it'll certainly be fun to watch the race.

[46zilzal]

Agree I am stumped so I will throw out two longshots: Eight Belles (not a long long one) and Monba.

[dutchboy]

Denis of Cork

Z Humor
Z Fortune

[Investorater]

#10,#20/#10,#20/#2,#4,#8,#9,#12,#14,#16,#17

[Mag]

Bob Black Jack, Visionaire, Court Vision

[lilmegahertz]

Colonel John

Visionaire

Bob Black Jack

Eight Belles

5-8-10-13

[borntoride]

Nobody's using my pick, so I'll chime in:

Adriano
Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Pyro
Big Brown

Good luck to all owners, horses, riders, and players.

[joanied]

Talk about the 11th hour!!!
I STILL :confused: cannot decide on just one...never been so confused :eek: about a race in my life...I know I'm not alone!! This is gonna be a :jump: hell of a race to watch.
Subject to change as they load in the gate :faint: ---
Tale of Ekati
Court Vision
Eight Belles
Col. John
Gayego

or---
Gayego
Take of Ekati
Court Vision
Big Brwon
Eight Belles

or---
Col. John
Tale of Ekati
Big Brown
Gayego
Eight Belles

OK...one more--
Eight Belles
Col. John
Visionaire
Tale of Ekati
Gayego

WHEW!!

Have a fun Derby everyone!!!

[Viruss]

Thank you,Ihope you did as well as i did got the tri+exa


Earl J

[Robert Fischer]

Big Brown
Eight Belles

Good Call:ThmbUp:

oh, right...