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Semipro
05-01-2008, 09:59 PM
Why is there so much credence placed on all that statistical information that happened it the Past. It's just that it is in the past and has nothing to do as to what in reality in will transpire in the future. Hell about all the myths have been broken in the last decade.All I'm saying handicap the race not the myths.
Cangamble
05-01-2008, 10:05 PM
Almost everyone with a handicapping system bases his or her system on probabilities. The probabilities are either strongly based or loosely based on what has happened in the past.
Semipro
05-01-2008, 10:48 PM
Almost everyone with a handicapping system bases his or her system on probabilities. The probabilities are either strongly based or loosely based on what has happened in the past.Not saying it (probabilities of past events) are not without merit it is just that there seems to me there is an over top infatuation with probabilities of past events when there are many variables as to what happens in reality.It seems to me it is a phenomenon that seems to me magnified in this race as compared to all others.
plainolebill
05-02-2008, 12:37 AM
If you don't look at the past where's the context?
Murph
05-02-2008, 12:25 PM
Why is there so much credence placed on all that statistical information that happened it the Past. It's just that it is in the past and has nothing to do as to what in reality in will transpire in the future. Hell about all the myths have been broken in the last decade.All I'm saying handicap the race not the myths.The Kentucky Derby is the first time in a runners life that he will test a classic distance. There is much relevence in comparing past Derby winners and races to determine which factors can makethe difference under these specific and severe conditions for 3 yr old runners. You may very well see a good example of this in action Saturday as Big Brown collapses during the final 1/4 mile after only 3 lifetime races and the added stress of attempting to gain the lead from the 20 post.

There is no other racing contests like the triple crown trail. Handicappers do well to find where the previous winners have made their mark going in so you can learn from the past and not repeat it into a losing ticket, much like I did when I left Thunder Gulch off of my ticket that very sad Derby day.

Murph