cccorona
05-01-2008, 09:01 PM
Hello everyone - It's Derby time!
I have been following the preps for a number of months.
There are some interesting angles that appear in C-J Derby Data Track's web page and I have selected, what I consider, the most pertinent.
As follows;
1. 6 or more career starts.
2. Final finish times in prep race for final 1/8 (under :13 seconds) final 1/4 (under :25.2) and final 3/8 (under :38).
3. Graded stakes winner.
4. Within 10 points (lbs) on the 2 year old Experimental Handicap.
5. Possesses a stalking or closing running style.
No horse, in this years Derby, qualified under all 5 categories. The following horses qualified in 4 of the 5 categories and are listed in order of my preference.
1. Pyro - missed #2 but was close with a :13 final 1/8.
Pyro was the leading contender until Big Brown came on the scene and before Pyro ran the poor race last out at Kenneland. I am willing to forgive that race (synthetic surface) and hope that he can get clear sailing when he lets loose his closing kick.
2. Colonel John - was close qualifying in all 5 but missed #4 by one point.
The Colonel needs only to transfer his winning ways on the dirt course after running exclusively on synthetic race tracks of the west coast. This should not pose a problem but his long stride will have to deal with the traffic problem presented with a 20 horse field.
3. Court Vision - missed under #2 but does possess a preferred running style.
Court Vision was one of the leading candidates to move forward after his 2 year old season. He has won over the Churchill track and needs to improve his speed rating to be competitive with this years crop. Is bred to run all day and I look for him to make a presence in this years race.
4. Tale of Ekati - also missed #2 but possesses a preferred running style.
Another that is bred to run all day, the "Tale" has to pick up his speed after a slow win in the Woodward last time he ran. His trainer, Barclay Tagg, knows how to get a horse ready for this race.
5. Z Fortune - did not qualify under #4
I attended this horse's last race in the Arkansas Derby a few weeks ago and thought the horse made the winning move, only to run second to Gayego. He draws a better post inside but his breeding might limit his ability to go the grueling mile and one quarter he will face Saturday.
Big Brown did not make the cut because he did not qualify under # 1 - #2 - #4 or #5. He could be a "freak" but I am waiting for the Big Brown to prove himself with this caliber of horse.
Good luck to everyone playing this years Derby.
Hope you enjoyed the analysis as much as I enjoyed putting it together!
cc
I have been following the preps for a number of months.
There are some interesting angles that appear in C-J Derby Data Track's web page and I have selected, what I consider, the most pertinent.
As follows;
1. 6 or more career starts.
2. Final finish times in prep race for final 1/8 (under :13 seconds) final 1/4 (under :25.2) and final 3/8 (under :38).
3. Graded stakes winner.
4. Within 10 points (lbs) on the 2 year old Experimental Handicap.
5. Possesses a stalking or closing running style.
No horse, in this years Derby, qualified under all 5 categories. The following horses qualified in 4 of the 5 categories and are listed in order of my preference.
1. Pyro - missed #2 but was close with a :13 final 1/8.
Pyro was the leading contender until Big Brown came on the scene and before Pyro ran the poor race last out at Kenneland. I am willing to forgive that race (synthetic surface) and hope that he can get clear sailing when he lets loose his closing kick.
2. Colonel John - was close qualifying in all 5 but missed #4 by one point.
The Colonel needs only to transfer his winning ways on the dirt course after running exclusively on synthetic race tracks of the west coast. This should not pose a problem but his long stride will have to deal with the traffic problem presented with a 20 horse field.
3. Court Vision - missed under #2 but does possess a preferred running style.
Court Vision was one of the leading candidates to move forward after his 2 year old season. He has won over the Churchill track and needs to improve his speed rating to be competitive with this years crop. Is bred to run all day and I look for him to make a presence in this years race.
4. Tale of Ekati - also missed #2 but possesses a preferred running style.
Another that is bred to run all day, the "Tale" has to pick up his speed after a slow win in the Woodward last time he ran. His trainer, Barclay Tagg, knows how to get a horse ready for this race.
5. Z Fortune - did not qualify under #4
I attended this horse's last race in the Arkansas Derby a few weeks ago and thought the horse made the winning move, only to run second to Gayego. He draws a better post inside but his breeding might limit his ability to go the grueling mile and one quarter he will face Saturday.
Big Brown did not make the cut because he did not qualify under # 1 - #2 - #4 or #5. He could be a "freak" but I am waiting for the Big Brown to prove himself with this caliber of horse.
Good luck to everyone playing this years Derby.
Hope you enjoyed the analysis as much as I enjoyed putting it together!
cc