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Jeff P
05-01-2008, 04:57 PM
Unless you've been living under a rock (and recently that HAS described me to some extent) as a horseplayer you can't help but notice that the game we love has recently detiorated into a very sorry state.

As if things weren't bad enough and the industry fragmented enough with track owners withholding distribution of signals from ADWs, now horseman's groups have jumped into the thick of things.

Currently, to my knowledge, the following signals are being withheld... not just from some ADWs... but from full card simulcasting at some race tracks as well: BEL, CD, LS, and CRC. Those are the signals I am aware of. I'm guessing that may not be a complete list.

To put things bluntly: Things are so messed up right now that TwinSpires.com can't even offer account wagering on their own CD signal.

At first I was all for the horsemen sticking it to TrackNet... giving them a taste of their own medicine so to speak. But the more I think about it, the more I have come to believe that the horseman is no more friend of the player than the track executive.

Both seem to have forgetten the person who plays the most important role in this (or any other) industry's business model:

THE CUSTOMER

I'm beginning to think it's long past time for horse players to self organize in a serious way. I reached the conclusion a long time ago that the ONLY thing track executives and horsemen's groups should REALLY be focused on is doing what's right for the industry:

REMOVING ALL RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION OF SIGNALS, REDUCING TAKEOUT, and GROWING HANDLE

I've come to believe that the only way to get them to do this is to hit them over the head with the only stick that we as horse players carry:

Organize on a national level and have repeated boycotts at selected tracks until they recognize the CUSTOMER actually has a stake in things.

Can anybody else besides me imagine a day when a major track has ZERO handle?

I think it's long past time for that to happen. Because if WE don't make it happen and get them to change things - I fear the day will come all too soon when it just happens on its own... when the next generation comes along... when the population of the US is 600 million... and maybe 12 individuals out of that 600 million actually have an interest in learning how to read a Racing Form.


-jp

.

trigger
05-01-2008, 05:16 PM
IMHO, Nothing is going to happen in permanently reducing takeout until 30 or 40 of the minor NA tracks go out of business.....it's not economically feasible to reduce takeout now with the current plethora of tracks. So, if (organized) bettors are really serious about reducing takeout, boycotts should be aimed at minor tracks first, then force the remaining tracks to reduce takeout (which they would then be able to do economically).

DJofSD
05-01-2008, 05:22 PM
I agree. We need to do something.

Withholding wagers on a specific day and track seems to be the only thing left to do.

Lasix67
05-01-2008, 06:38 PM
I totally agree with Jeff on this stance, but unfortunately it is going to be literally impossible to do. I am very disappointed that the CD undercard has been held hostage for both the Oaks and Derby day as it is the day that I and many more have their annual parties and how do you tell your guess the current circumstance has all but locked us out. This is really bad for the persons who could with one spectacular day, become life long fans because of the joy that Derby day has brought to them. Instead they will go to the festivals and other activities for which they can be involved in. This is also a bad year considering the field just doesn't glow with a fan champion as in years past, regardless of how much the media is building up Big Brown. What a damn shame for the fans new and old and a sad day for our sport for which many of us have a deep love and passion for.:confused:

JustRalph
05-01-2008, 06:48 PM
Jeff, you are right.


We need a horseplayers advocacy group. I hate the "union" label

but there has to be something done.


I would pay a fair fee to organize. And I think that means horseplayers doing it.........not the NTRA.

Indulto
05-01-2008, 07:31 PM
Jeff, you are right.


We need a horseplayers advocacy group. I hate the "union" label

but there has to be something done.


I would pay a fair fee to organize. And I think that means horseplayers doing it.........not the NTRA.Amen.

Now exactly what is the single most important objective: Lower actual takeout, lower effective takeout for all, unlimited signal distribution to all ADWs, unlimited signal distribution to all simulcast centers, etc.

What is the next single most important objective?

And so on.

Tom
05-01-2008, 09:51 PM
The only effective action will be to walk away - and not come back.
the people that run racing are just too utterly stupid and greedy to treat as inteligent forms of life. Most are leeches, sucking life out the game and returning nothing. When they kill this goose, they will have thier uncles get them jobs in other industrues to destroy.

Racing is dead or dying fast.
I can never see myself upping my action to any worthwhile level ever again.
I have had it with racing. At best, you get the "privalege" of betting some track, and then the trainers are stinking drugging cheaters. Screw racing and everyone in it.

Cangamble
05-01-2008, 10:10 PM
Amen.

Now exactly what is the single most important objective: Lower actual takeout, lower effective takeout for all, unlimited signal distribution to all ADWs, unlimited signal distribution to all simulcast centers, etc.

What is the next single most important objective?

And so on.
I think that drastically lowering takeout for all is the only way to grow horse racing.
The rest will sort itself out after the foundation is in place.
Gambling is growing worldwide....sports betting and online poker especially....two non negative expectation games (because you are betting against the public and not the house, but you still have to overcome the house rake or edge). Horse racing exchange betting is also growing....again, because it isn't a negative expectation game thanks to the minute 2% rake.

highnote
05-01-2008, 10:38 PM
Maybe potential members of a National Handicapping Organization can meet informally at the cocktail hour of the First Annual Offical Handicapping Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony that should be held this summer at Saratoga during the annual PA handicapping get-together.

trying2win
05-01-2008, 10:44 PM
Jeff, you're right on the money! So is Cangamble on his many posts about track takeouts, in this thread and others. For those bettors that say lowering takeouts can't be done, or it'll never work....I say...NONSENSE! I''d like to know where they learned their theories about economics???


T2W

highnote
05-01-2008, 10:48 PM
For those bettors that say lowering takeouts can't be done, or it'll never work....I say...NONSENSE! I''d like to know where they learned their theories about economics???


Hialeah?

Kelso
05-02-2008, 02:15 AM
Maybe potential members of a National Handicapping Organization can meet informally at the cocktail hour of the First Annual Offical Handicapping Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony that should be held this summer at Saratoga during the annual PA handicapping get-together.

Now THAT would make one swell opening paragraph when someone writes the 50th anniversayr history of the NHO. :jump:

cj
05-02-2008, 06:02 AM
This article doesn't deal with the current fights, but sums up the state of the game pretty well:

http://www.slate.com/id/2189475/pagenum/all/#page_start

Cangamble
05-02-2008, 07:28 AM
This article doesn't deal with the current fights, but sums up the state of the game pretty well:

http://www.slate.com/id/2189475/pagenum/all/#page_start
That is the way it is. And what have race tracks done to go with the flow?
Nothing.

sjk
05-02-2008, 07:38 AM
Getting back to the state of the industry it seems to me to be bad and I am not sure I see any way out.

The economics of the horsemen and the tracks is extremely poor so anyone who thinks that things will settle out where their share of the takeout is less than today is likely to suffer eternel disappointment.

The fact that the horsemen economics is bad and getting worse is forcing them to try to make a stand to tear up the rules and try something new.

Some here have suggested that it would be nice if a number of tracks closed putting tens or hundreds of thousands of people out of work and destroying the local aspect of the sport in areas where it has a long tradition. I have a hard time embracing this as a positive outcome and I am not even sure that I agree that handle would not go down commensurately.

The large volume of play that is coming from rebated players has made the effective takeout on the casual player so onerous that we have probably lost an entire generation of potential participants.

It has also tended to make the pools more efficient. Along with the huge number of short fields the more efficient pools demand more time and patience to make value based bets.

When some tracks are not available to play through our ADWs and the tracks that are available demand more time and patience I find myself playing fewer races than in the past and I gather from other posts that I am not alone in that.

The fact that even after years of discussion a very large percentage of the pools comes in in the last minute before the race goes off continues to work against playing the smaller tracks because it doesn't take long for a horse you bet at 9-2 at 0 mtp to win and pay $5.60 and that is usually enough for me to write off Prm for the year.

I don't really see any answer. The industry had a wonderful opportunity to take advantage of simulcasting and internet play 15 years ago. I agree with the horsemen that it made a wrong turn at that time. It is not at all clear to me that there is any way back or any way out.

This is a billion dollar industry and what a handful of us on a message board think (or indeed whether we participate in the sport or not) will have little or nothing to do with how this plays out.

Cangamble
05-02-2008, 07:49 AM
Sjk, there are two things I want to say that make me more optimistic than you.
The pen is mightier than the sword, and money talks.

cj
05-02-2008, 08:57 AM
The problem with this "new plan" is people won't stand for having things they already had taken away. If takeout isn't lowered and the prices are raised high enough that "whales" can't get rebated, the industry is doomed. They can continue to get the same share of a shrinking pool, or try innovation and get a smaller share of a much bigger pool. It is possible it won't work, but they really have nothing to lose. The ship is already sinking.

As to closing tracks, our betting pays for nearly everything. There are excess tracks, which means too much money is being paid out to workers that aren't needed. They need to go. Unfortunately, that is life. It happens in every other business in the world. I think if you have five or six circuits running in this country, the pools would be enormous because the product would be much less diluted and the fields would be much more appetizing for the bettor.

joeyspicks
05-02-2008, 09:02 AM
Terrific post Jeff!

The people in this business seem to have no idea? Is there any hope?

For the people who know this situation....quick question: Will this

be resolved anytime soon? (Will Belmont be available any time soon ?)

New York tracks are my bread and butter......

Do these fools realize that the offshores STILL carry ALL tracks ?

sjk
05-02-2008, 01:16 PM
I think if you have five or six circuits running in this country, the pools would be enormous because the product would be much less diluted and the fields would be much more appetizing for the bettor.

I don't see why this would be the case. Just because there are fewer tracks running does not mean my bets would be any larger.

On Monday or Tuesday I might only have 3 tracks to play while on the weekend there might be 10. I do not bet 3x as much on the smaller number of tracks on Monday.

On the contrary it is more likely that I would decide that it is not worth my time to fool with a small number of tracks and I would bet nothing.

On another thread Rook posted that a player whose return falls into the narrow range where rebates/reduced takeouts would make the difference between winning and losing and who also has the nerve, ambition and bankroll to try to bet as a profession would be greatly incented by the rebates/reduced takeouts.

That is no doubt true for a player meeting the above criteria but I suspect that group is pretty small and would hate to stake the future of the industry on their satisfaction alone.

DJofSD
05-02-2008, 01:29 PM
I don't see why this would be the case. Just because there are fewer tracks running does not mean my bets would be any larger.

Right. And, the additional unstated assumption is that all the horses would end up at one of the suriving tracks. That's a bad assumption.

It would be fantastic if the number of horses that run in races at the existing tracks would stay the same in a down-sized scenario. But that won't happen.

Decreasing the number of track would likely result in a larger decrease in the number of entries.

sjk
05-02-2008, 01:44 PM
No one breeds horses whose top effort is a 50 Beyer on purpose. There will always be horses who are not capable of competing at the best tracks.

If there is nowhere for these horses to compete it is real bad news for the horses and for the industry.

john del riccio
05-02-2008, 02:03 PM
Unless you've been living under a rock (and recently that HAS described me to some extent) as a horseplayer you can't help but notice that the game we love has recently detiorated into a very sorry state.

As if things weren't bad enough and the industry fragmented enough with track owners withholding distribution of signals from ADWs, now horseman's groups have jumped into the thick of things.

Currently, to my knowledge, the following signals are being withheld... not just from some ADWs... but from full card simulcasting at some race tracks as well: BEL, CD, LS, and CRC. Those are the signals I am aware of. I'm guessing that may not be a complete list.

To put things bluntly: Things are so messed up right now that TwinSpires.com can't even offer account wagering on their own CD signal.

At first I was all for the horsemen sticking it to TrackNet... giving them a taste of their own medicine so to speak. But the more I think about it, the more I have come to believe that the horseman is no more friend of the player than the track executive.

Both seem to have forgetten the person who plays the most important role in this (or any other) industry's business model:

THE CUSTOMER

I'm beginning to think it's long past time for horse players to self organize in a serious way. I reached the conclusion a long time ago that the ONLY thing track executives and horsemen's groups should REALLY be focused on is doing what's right for the industry:

REMOVING ALL RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION OF SIGNALS, REDUCING TAKEOUT, and GROWING HANDLE

I've come to believe that the only way to get them to do this is to hit them over the head with the only stick that we as horse players carry:

Organize on a national level and have repeated boycotts at selected tracks until they recognize the CUSTOMER actually has a stake in things.

Can anybody else besides me imagine a day when a major track has ZERO handle?

I think it's long past time for that to happen. Because if WE don't make it happen and get them to change things - I fear the day will come all too soon when it just happens on its own... when the next generation comes along... when the population of the US is 600 million... and maybe 12 individuals out of that 600 million actually have an interest in learning how to read a Racing Form.


-jp

.



Jeff,

Given some of the comments I heard yesterday regarding how the ATL simulcast debacle went down and how DEL has less than 600 horses on the grounds AND horsemen are being kicked out, I have to say that things will have to get alot worse (is that possible ?) before they get better.

What a cluster-**** !

John

asH
05-02-2008, 04:32 PM
REMOVING ALL RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION OF SIGNALS, REDUCING TAKEOUT, and GROWING HANDLE
a line from Jeff P.

I've looked at the conflict from# of positions; I understand Evans wanting to protect his and Magna's turf. When separating this conflict into its money making components (Video signal, ADW pools, track pools),the signal has the least value (in its current usage) in this debacle. All money is made through on-track pools and ADW's pools. In his own words Evans takes the stance that ADW's, not TV, has value.

Evans took a page from television talk show host David Letterman in outlining why ADW is so important to CDI. He offered a top-10 list:

10. ADW is the most convenient form of wagering on horse races
9. ADW offers the lowest cost to wagering providers.
8. ADW is the best means to build a fan base.
7. The online wagering experience can rekindle interest in the on-track experience.
6. ADW is the least expensive means of delivering the product.
5. ADW is the most practical way to enter markets outside the United States.
4. ADW provides the most cost-effective way to market horse racing.
3. The Internet allows racetracks to better understand their customers.
2. The Internet facilitates new customer-geared features.
1. The Internet “nationalizes” the relationship between investment and financial return.

In explaining the cost factor, Evans noted it costs $18 million to $23 million a year to distribute HRTV and TVG, the industry’s two racing networks. (CDI owns HRTV with Magna Entertainment Corp.) Internet delivery is much cheaper, he said.

CDI plans to upgrade its Internet presence and its TwinSpires.com wagering platform by introducing a video interface that will provide four video screens, chat lines, one-to-one promotions, and video replays of races, Evans said. Further down the road, there could be “multi-media” handicapping capabilities that could allow customers to put together digital races based on past performances.

Distributing signals to all forces competition between ADW's for customers (us-- tracks will always have their home grown customers). Sharing the signal with TVG (and vice versa) only increases monies to CDI/Magna (other ADW’s) ,now AWD's have access to the bigger TV viewing audience of TVG... Of course TVG needs to concentrate on the video end, making its money primarily from advertising (ADW commercials) and mutual share contracts between the bigger networks (of course hosting tracks would gain a percentage of this money) . Naturally Evans and TVG want (as it appears) to have it all......Video helps to increase viewing audience, ADW's increase pools

cnollfan
05-02-2008, 07:03 PM
No one breeds horses whose top effort is a 50 Beyer on purpose. There will always be horses who are not capable of competing at the best tracks.

If there is nowhere for these horses to compete it is real bad news for the horses and for the industry.

I agree with SJK on this. I don't see what a minor track being open or not has to do with the takeout at a major track. For that matter, some of the minor tracks act like they still like having fans around. Can't say that about some of the majors.

Tom
05-02-2008, 11:29 PM
Breed horses to top at 50? Isn't that what the NYS Bred program is for?:rolleyes:
I see Belmont had a nice 5 horse race today - talk about tradition. Give me a filed of 10 with a top figure of 33 over this crap any day.

Kelso
05-03-2008, 01:00 AM
Some here have suggested that it would be nice if a number of tracks closed putting tens or hundreds of thousands of people out of work and destroying the local aspect of the sport in areas where it has a long tradition. I have a hard time embracing this as a positive outcome and I am not even sure that I agree that handle would not go down commensurately.

The industry had a wonderful opportunity to take advantage of simulcasting and internet play 15 years ago. I agree with the horsemen that it made a wrong turn at that time.Oh, so it's a 'local" industry when the horsemen want to continue playing in their own backyards ... where they just happen to be tight with the racing secretary and all the stewards, doncha know ... but when an ADW offers their track access to a small piece of MILLIONS OF BRAND-NEW, NON-LOCAL DOLLARS, those same horsemen who have "a long tradition" of thriving on nothing other than local wagering suddenly can't survive without grabbing up the pig's share of all that new loot!

HORSESHIT!! More hypocritical double-talk from greedy horsemen who believe THEY are the ONLY element of the industry that really matter.

slewis
05-03-2008, 01:15 AM
Breed horses to top at 50? Isn't that what the NYS Bred program is for?:rolleyes:
I see Belmont had a nice 5 horse race today - talk about tradition. Give me a filed of 10 with a top figure of 33 over this crap any day.

Hey Tom,

The NY bred program/product is getting MUCh better and will continue with some recent rule changes.

How's this yr's 3 yr old colts:

Z FORTUNE
BIG TRUCK
GIANT MOON
SPANKY FISHBEIN
ICABOD CRANE

I might give a finger or two to be involved with any of these... oops,
better take the finger part back.
All kidding aside it's great for the upstate farms, and keeping money in the state is good for the economy.

cj
05-03-2008, 02:56 AM
Maybe John Candlin can get a hold of some of that better NY bred stock. :D

Tom
05-03-2008, 10:26 AM
Hey Tom,

The NY bred program/product is getting MUCh better and will continue with some recent rule changes.



I might give a finger or two to be involved with any of these...

As a Finger Lakes player who had to suffer the decades of GARBAGE this program turned out, I will never be a fan of the NY Bred. They could spit of the nest 10 triple crown winners and I will still think of "Popcorn" as the foundation sire. :rolleyes:

I have been waving a finger at the program for 30 years. :D