Horserace Betting

[gambler844]

What is the name of a good book on horserace betting? One that shows you how to convert percentages to odd, and how to calculate how much it will cost you to play different cobinations of horses in an exotic race. What is the value in impacy value, stardard deviation etc. Thanks for any help.

[Dave Schwartz]

Check out the Handicapping Library. Specifically a long thread called:

Best & Worst Books


You may have to set the view back to show more than last 30 days.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[formula_2002]

GA, " Money Secrets At the Racetarck" by Barry Meadow.

You can review and purchase at:

http://www.trpublishing.com/p0000007.htm

pricey, but worth it..

Good Luck

[JimG]

A book I read years ago on betting that I enjoyed was by Dick Mitchell known as Commensense Betting,

JimG

PS...I think some good advice on betting can also be found on this bulletin board. Do a search on betting...there are some bright minds here. Although one of my personal favorite writers on this subject, Druther, is unfortunately no longer with us. I'm sure he's winning those horse races in heaven betting against vulnerable favorites.

[tcat]

Shucks guys, check out the wagering formulas in Exotic Wagering Formulas at the Gamblers Book Store. Tools all the Exotic race players need to have. Book sold out in 12 months, not re-printed despite offers to do so.

Don't need any of them fancy-math-guru-roi stuff.

[Vigors]

Agreeing wholeheartedly with Formula 2002 , Barry Meadows

"Secret's at the Racetrack" If ever there was a Holy Grail
on one subject...this is it.!!!!

The "place & show" books have much to offer...but are
still several length's behind

Being exact, precise, and to the decimal is Barry's forte,
he just can't help being right......
Boy, I just hope Dave/Clint
Powers/Tracy never said anything good about Barry, least
we have midnight coming out of the sewer's to hunt "snipe"

[tcat]

The problem is, it's not an exact science.... it's horse racing.
Anybody can back fit to make it look good.

[formula_2002]

tcat,
problem I find is, how to go foreward without back fitting ?


Joe M

[Vigors]

If you ever read "secrets", you never could have made any
statement's about back-fitting in ANY Meadow's book...that's
like saying "The Butler did it!!, in a math book. Maybe it's not to
late to see if Jethro and Ellie May are still playing in the "cement pond" Back Fitting my ass....what'd you come back some
bible belt OTB where the oldest fart in there said something
you thought quoteable....In the future, If your going to comment
of things COMPLEATLY FOREIGN & UNKNOWN to you, try "2 digit
I.Q. central"

[pic6vic]

Here's a different book that most of you haven't heard anything about.


BETTING AND BEATING THE EXOTICS

by

JERRY SAMOVITZ

He does not advertise but sells them privately or if someone recommends the books. Gamblers book store in Vegas does sell them.

I have know Jerry since 1979 and we have done quite a few ventures together. If you read the part about the pick 6, the partner he talks about is yours truly.

Any way Jerry mathamatics are better than anything I have read.
Of course I am a little biased on this subkect. If you are interested
just send me an e-mail and I will give you his phone number.
He has written about four books.

[GameTheory]

I think you guys are confusing tcat with tomc. Not the same person.

At least I hope not.

[Kentucky Bred]

Hey Vic:

Is Jerry Samovitz the same man that published a money management book called, (I'm going by memory) "Out of the Red and into the Black", or something like that?

I had it and used it for quite awhile. I like it very much. Although I now endorse a slight "up as you lose" MM method and Jerry's is a slight "up as you win" method, it was a very creative a bright way to track and maximize your wins.

I recommend this book. Without giving away anything, it had a couple of unique features. Some people like to divide their plays into their "prime" plays and plays to pass the time. This method has a provision to do that. Also, there was a sliding bet amount for your prime plays if you are too uncomfortable with being forced into a bigger play than ever before after a series of wins. Good read for anyone interested.

Kentucky Bred

[tcat]

Sorry Vigors, didn't mean to offend.
I only tried to suggest that maybe it isn't that exact a science. I remember sometime people saying that successful handicapping was more art than science.
I happen to believe that successful wagering is just as important as successful handicapping.
I also tried to suggest that with the uncertainty of odds available to the average simulcast patron,
trying to make a scince of corect odds wagering as Barry suggests is very difficult.

I have been disappointed more than once to see my selection leading the field as the odds kept going down after they left the gate.

Once again, sorry.

[Vigors]

Maybe I owe you the apology...as I was ONLY making reference
to Meadows knowledge of the exact science...Mathematics...
i.e., the most you could bet without hurting the odd's...how
$179 will affect the double pool, etc. I been privy to attending
several of Mitchell's seminar's with Barry as a guest speaker and have walked to the windows with him calculating odd's & $$
much better then any Laptop...and it seem's to be all second nature to him...he is that good! It seem's we were talking Apples
& Mandrian Oranges...and I shot from the hip in defense of one
of the truely great in this game...so again, please accept my apology.....my misunderstanding did you an injustice, and I'm sorry

[GR1@HTR]

Tcat is an OH Hall of Fame H.S Football coach who teaches handicapping classes at the University of Kentucky. His book Exotic Wagering is a very nice book that shows people different ways to play exotics such as the exacta. He points out how inefective it is to box 3 or 4 horses in an exacta, trifecta and so on. ie how to better spend your money. IMHO, he has transfered his knowledge of Offensive Football to Offensive Horse Wagering if you will. How to make first downs to keep you in the game while being in a situation to complete the big play (bomb or IRS signer).

[pic6vic]

KBRED

You are correct. You have the right guy. I make my plays like that. It sure makes it simpler to bet races where I like them but not in love with the race.

The money management book is great, but it takes disipline to follow.

[tcat]

Hey Vig,

If you were pick the one thing that was the best advice or play that BM has taught you, what was it?

[azmike]

Are we referring to 2 or 3 different books concerning "exotic wagering". I have the BM book. Gamblers World lists a book by Walters and also the Jerry S book. Which of the last 2 are being recommended and what, if you know, would be the difference between them.

I think I have a pretty good idea how to structure exotic bets but I like to always look at different and sometimes new ideas.

Thanks.

[Vigors]

Hummmmmmmm, Looking at the several dozen mini-tapes from
the seminar's, etc.....I couldn't pick any one because there are so many different area's that are encompassed with handicapping...you've given me an impossible task...but I'm reasonably sure midnight can make one up ( or blame Tom Console for it in some way )

How about " Alway's bet a Grey horse who just took a shit"

[pic6vic]

AZMIKE

Jerry's book may not be for you. He explains how best to optimize
exotic bets. More towards pick 3's, pick4's pick 6's, superfectas and trifectas. If this is whay you play then his book would be good for you. Also if you play these exotics and play them small this book would not be for you. However, if you play these exotics everyday then this book would definelty help.

Let me know exactly what you play and I'll be able to determine if this would help.

Again, anyone wanting to learn how to structure exotics for these types of bets , this book would definitely help. I have been playing this way for years.

[azmike]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by pic6vic




Let me know exactly what you play and I'll be able to determine if this would help.

Thanks for the response. The exotics I like to play are exactas, tris and pic 3s. I wouldn't say my bets are "small" but I wouldn't say they are "huge". Hard to quantify, depends on the race and how confident I am on each bet.

Thanks.

[formula_2002]

Exacta's are good bets providing you can make money in the win pool, and , have the good fortune to be able to pick the place horse.
Else it' a bad bet and no kind of math will make you a long term winner.
Luck will, but not math.

Pic 3, 4 5 6 etc.. can be a fun play for 2 bucks...
But dont plan on making any money unless you are profitable in the win pool...or are lucky.
Joe M

[azmike]

Do I assume from you post that you believe WIN only is the preferred method for long-term positive roi?

If so do you adhere to the multiple-win bet, win-place or some other theory of betting?

Just curious if your belief is based on your data base and/or personal experience.

Thanks for your input.

[pic6vic]

Joe M

The pick 3' and pick 4's could be and are very profitable. Your response about the win pool is also right on. Beating the pick 3's and pick 4's is based on being able to pick winners. Thats why the book is so good. You can use keys and still take insurance.

AZMIKE

What I mean by small bets is $24 or $36 tickets. If you play in the $50 to $100 range on pick 3's then this book will help you immensely.

[Derek2U]

Formula, its seems to me that anyone with a WIN BET system
thats got a +roi could make more in Exactas. Suppose your
Horse is 3:1 & You will bet $100 to Win. (Return: $400). Of
course, it it loses you lose $100. So, take the $100 and figure
the Horse on Top & whats the amount of tickets on various
Ex combos.

[dav4463]

Usually when I am right about a race, I am really right....when I am wrong I am really wrong ! If I take the money I have spent on win bets and played trifectas only, I would have hit far less winners, but made a lot more money. This is based on the SH meet for this year. In the races where I felt really good about cashing a win bet, I go back and see that I had the trifecta as well and should have (woulda, coulda, shoulda!) played it.

[LOU M.]

The general concensus is to find a spot play and test it going forward. What if you had three or four years of data and back fitted a spot play for one year until it was profitable then tested it in each of the previous years you had data for, wouldn't that be the same as testing forward? The only proplem I see is using your entire db to find the spot play initially. What do you think? Provided of course your test had a large enough sample"what is a large enough sample though?"

[formula_2002]

Lou, the problem I run into with that kind of back fitting is ,eventually the sample to be tested (the 3 years) will become part of the back test.

For instance, you develope a system with the first year of data.
It does not work on the next three years. So throw out the system and try again.
You keep trying until it works for all four years. That makes all four years part of the origional sample...catch 22.

I think the more accurate way is to examine the system by odds range, making sure you have enough sampes in each odds range.

For "enough" take a look at a table on my web page that has to do with quanity of sample to determine confidence.
But look for revision 2 to the table. I'm removing the effect of the track tak-out.

Joe M

[LOU M.]

I never thought of that. Sort of chasing your tail. Thanks for the enlightenment.

[formula_2002]

Lou, your welcome..That thought took a long time in coming to me.

I just fixed the web page.. I think you'll need excel to view the table.

[formula_2002]

DEREK2U EXAMPLE OF WIN BET VS EX BET

System win bet;
a) 3373 exacta races. (when the pick is not the favorite)
b) System win bet net $394
profit = 11.7% profit

Exacta play;
System pick/favorite
a) 3373 exacta races. (when the pick is not the favorite)
b) exacta net =187
profit= 5.5%

Exacta play
Favorite /system pick
a) 3373 exacta races. (when the pick is not the favorite)
b) exacta net= -903
loss= -27%

A straigh win bet will make 11%.
Placing the pick over favorite will cut your profit from 11% to 5%

Many people make an insurance bet by placing the pick under the favorite. That will cost you 27%

[tcat]

I think people are creatures of habit. Win betters seem to bet to win and not too prone to bet exotics. I like exotics, that's what I play.