Poly races - throw outs or serious preps?

[Tom]

Looking at the best two of last three races of the horses going into the Blue Grass, run over plastic and what-not, the two that ran over other poly or dirt seemed to run their normal races, while all four dirt horses took noticable dives. Was it the horse of the track?
Me, I'm throwing out all pacelines not over dirt and let the chips fall where they may. (BRIS Speed Ratings)

[classhandicapper]

I'm evaluating the Cushion performances out in CA based on a comparative quality/class/trip/running style basis and totally ignoring the speed and pace figures.

I'm evaluating the Poly races in a similar fashion, but I'm being more forgiving of poor performance and more skeptical of outstanding performance.

In both instances, prior efforts on dirt, pedigree if it's obvious, and other factors will help me clarify surface preferences. So will recent works at CD.

In the end, all else being equal (ability and odds) I'll still prefer dirt form (however all else is rarely equal).

[MNslappy]

I'm evaluating the Cushion performances out in CA based on a comparative quality/class/trip/running style basis and totally ignoring the speed and pace figures.

In both instances, prior efforts on dirt, pedigree if it's obvious, and other factors will help me clarify surface preferences. So will recent works at CD.

What's you're line of thinking right now regarding the Colonel, if I might ask.

[classhandicapper]

What's you're line of thinking right now regarding the Colonel, if I might ask.

I think he has to be considered a contender based on how a couple of CA based 3YOs stacked up against the other 3YOs when they shipped. I also liked his huge work on dirt at CD the other day. I'm not sure if there's going to be any value on him, but I think he's clearly a very good horse no matter what the cushion speed figures say.

[michiken]

Tom,

Is it a good time to redboard some past derbys and ???

Attached are a few pdfs of some familiar Kentucky Derbys. They are sorted by bris speed figure. Only speed figs above 100 were considered for the last 3 races.

Look at my Counter Energy rating C/E which is a ratio between ability time and speed figure. I like my derby selection to have a rating of 85 or higher though I will never figure out Giacomo beat A Alex and Closing Arg.

Where C/E = (Speed - Ability) + 100 --> this measures the deceleration slope or indicates if the horse ran too fast too early.

[classhandicapper]

I think he has to be considered a contender based on how a couple of CA based 3YOs stacked up against the other 3YOs when they shipped. I also liked his huge work on dirt at CD the other day. I'm not sure if there's going to be any value on him, but I think he's clearly a very good horse no matter what the cushion speed figures say.

Just to start, if you have Formulator, take a good look at the PPs of all the horses in the Grade 1 CSHCLFUT on Dec 22 at HOL. You'll be able to see the PPs of the horses going into the race, coming out of that race, and how they did shipping to another section of the country. You can do that for the other CA preps also, but this one in particular gives you a lot to look at and follow. IMO it demonstrates the quality of the CA horses to be a lot better than their Cushion figures.

[michiken]

And here are some more ratings for the prep races run this year. These are limited to the last 3 pacelines.

[Tom]

Thanks, Ken. I really like your ratings, and have used them for modeling from time to time. Appreciate the Derby look.

[slewis]

Great post Tom.


Interesting chart.

[Semipro]

Just to start, if you have Formulator, take a good look at the PPs of all the horses in the Grade 1 CSHCLFUT on Dec 22 at HOL. You'll be able to see the PPs of the horses going into the race, coming out of that race, and how they did shipping to another section of the country. You can do that for the other CA preps also, but this one in particular gives you a lot to look at and follow. IMO it demonstrates the quality of the CA horses to be a lot better than their Cushion figures.That's what me and a few others have saying in early posts Gayego,Sierra Sunset, Colonel John's works all have shown they may be able to take a liking to the dirt.I loved Tiznow and he ran very well on dirt.