Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Kentucky Derby this saturday at CD
(as well as the final two betting races) are available at the link below. Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

COOL COAL MAN returned to the races running as a 3yo winning two 1 1/8 mi races on dirt but did not handle the KEE Polytrack last out. He would handle an off track, draws the rail for the fourth race in a row and showns only a 4f work in the last three weeks.

TALE OF EKATI exits one of the slowest renditions of the Wood Memorial in recent memory. He has shown more talent around one turn as a 2yo than he has around two turns as a 3yo, may not handle an off track, and also loses the services of Edgar Prado.

ANAK NAKAL has not shown anywhere near the form he exhibited as a 2yo but he also hasn't raced at CD either which was the surface he ran his best race over. He shows just two 1/2 mile works in the last 28 days and gets the services of Bejarano for the first time.

COURT VISION has been reasonably consistent in his four dirt races and adds blinkers for this race in an effort to give him more early speed which seemed to have worked in his 1/2 mile breeze 16 days ago. He shows a win over the CD surface and Gomez stays aboard.

EIGHT BELLES has been a very consistent filly since the end of her 2yo year to the present and has actually performed at a similiar level to many of the colts. She shows a solid 5f breeze over the CD surface (Jones used a similiar tactic with HARD SPUN) but will likely face a pace scenario much quicker than she has been facing.

Z FORTUNE ran the best race of his career last out despite being four wide the entire race. His last two works have only been a 1/2 mile and are incredibly slow (51 B). Albarado was aboard in his last race and retains the mount.

BIG TRUCK is another one that didn't handle the KEE Polytrack last out after coming off a career best effort. He shows a crisp 5f drill over the CD surface 5 days ago, must pick up 10 lbs off his best race in the TB Derby, is questinable over an off track, and loses the services of Coa.

VISIONARE has run his best race over a sloppy track and he too would also pick up 10 lbs off that effort. He shows only two 1/2 mile works since his mediorce race over the KEE Polytrack last out and Lescano stays aboard.

PYRO had run two "ballsy" races at FG at 1 1/16 mi. in his two initial 3yo starts. His race over the KEE Polytrack last out as the even money favorite was horrible. He broke his maiden over the CD surface, can handle an off track, and shows just two mediorce 1/2 mile works since his last race.

COLONEL JOHN has improved in each and every start of his six race career; all of which were run over three different artifical surfaces. He shows a stunning 5f work over the CD surface six days ago and Nakatani stays aboard.

Z HUMOR looks like he will want no part of 1 1/4 having lost ground in most all of his two turn races.

SMOOTH AIR would handle an off track, shown significant improvement in his second start around two turns, and has been training long and strong for this race. He came down with a fever several days ago which is certainly cause for concern but the old-school trainer, Benny Stutts, would not run him if he wasn't right.

BOB BLACK JACK is obviously a more talented sprinter than he is a distance horse but has raced very well when stretched out. He shows a quick 6f drill at SA along with a 4f breeze over the CD surface in preps for this and Migliore stays aboard.

MONBAS's two best races are over artificial surfaces but does have a win over the CD surface as well. He shows a mediocre 5f breeze since his last race three weeks ago and Pletcher lures Dominguez to ride.

ADRIANO's two best races were on Polytrack and grass with his lone dirt race being very bad from post 12 at GP (was no problem for BIG BROWN). He has had three works over the CD surface and Prado stays aboard.

DENIS OF CORK may have been mismanaged by bypassing the ARK-Derby over a surface he had won over for thre HAW Derby. He has had two solid works over the CD surface and doesn't mind an off track but his best race was only at a mile so todays distance of 1 1/4 mi may pose some problems.

COWBOY CAL's lone dirt race was in his career debut at 6f and he didn't show much. He raced on grass over the next four races while showing consistnecy. When he tried the KEE Polytrack last out his turf form transfered well and he ran a career best race. His lone work since then was over Polytrack once again so his dirt form is questionable despite Velasquez
retaining the mount.

RECAPTURE THE GLORY's last race came out of nowhere. He has two solid 5f breezes over the CD surface in preps for this and Baird retains the mount. The pace that he was allowedto set in the HAW Derby was much slower than he is likely to face here so he will need to show the ability to overcome a tougher pace scenario.

GAYEGO has been a very consistent horse that has gotten even better as a 3yo. He transferred his artificial form from California to the dirt winning the ARK Derby and shows a 5f work over the CD suraface in the mud 7 days ago.

BIG BROWN is heads and shoulders above this 3yo crop. He has worked three times since his win 5 weeks ago; each one better than the last. He is clearly the horse to beat, despite the post, despite being lightly raced, and despite his brash trainer.

[cnollfan]

Thanks for posting!

Not sure that I agree that Recapturetheglory's last race came from nowhere -- lone speed from pp 1 at Hawthorne is always dangerous. I make him the chalk for last place in the Kentucky Derby.

[bobphilo]

John,

Thanks for the PPs and excellent analysis - this one ranks with your all-time best for this difficult race. Both are terrific tools in handicapping the Derby.

Bob

[john del riccio]

It certainly appears that the track maintenance crew has been busy. The track started out muddy and sealed and progessed to good after the second race. Early speed seems to be prevailing moreso after th esurface was rated good and by the big race the surface is likely to be rated as fast. In looking at the kickback (on TV), it certainly appears to be minimal which certyainly coincides with some of the fractional/final times thus far.

DISTANCE:
---------

I think that TALE OF EKATI, ANAK NAKAL, BIG TRUCK, Z HUMOR, DENIS OF CORK, and BOB BLACK JACK may have issues with the distance.

CLASS:
------

EIGHT BELLES, COURT VISION, and ADRIANO haven't shown the ability to compete seriously with the better 3yo's.

PACE:
-----
BIG BROWN is clearly the strongest pace presence. BOB BLACK JACK has exhibited superior sprint speed but that was over SA's cushioned surface and his lone workout on dirt over the CD surface was not overly quick. SMOOTH AIR has won sprinting and dramatically improved his pace rating last out as well. GAYEGO has won sprinting from off the pace over SA's cushioned track but did show an improved pace rating last out in his lone dirt race.


VARIANT:
--------

BIG BROWN 84
SMOORTH AIR 79
COLONEL JOHN 79
RECAPTURETHE GLORY 79
PYRO 78
GAYEGO 78



Again, BIG BROWN is clearly the most talented horse in the field boasting a 5 length edge over his closest competitor. That horse is SMOOTH AIR, who ran 2nd to him in the Florida Derby. SMOOTH AIR is the second fastest 3yo in the country and lost by five lengths to BIG BROWN; that is saying something. COLONEL JOHN is earned a variant rating equal to that of SMOOTH AIR but did so ver SA's cushioned track; however, his workout over the CD
surface was nothing less than stellar. RECAPTURETHEGLORY certainly
improved in his ILL-Derby victory but did so by setting very soft fractions from the rail; thats simply not going to happen today. PYRO is a racehorse but he seems to have faltered of late. GAYEGO hasn't done anything wrong, is on the improve, and has tactical speed. VISIONARE is a bit of a sleeper, you have to feel for Matz given what happened to CHELOKEE, his GOTHAM was good but it was in the slop and he probably didn't like polytrack at KEE.


The current odds for the contenders:

BIG BROWN 5-2
SMOORTH AIR 35-1
COLONEL JOHN 4-1
RECAPTURETHE GLORY 45-1
PYRO 5-1
GAYEGO 20-1


RECAPTURETHEGLORY may be a huge overlay, but his running style (early speed) and his talent level (75 pace rating) would require him to prove that he can overcome the disadvantage he has in the toughest race of his career from a challenging post position. COLONEL JOHN has improved in almost every start and had a brilliant workout over the CD surface. He is a quality racehorse without question but 4-1 on a horse trying dirt foe the first time in a 20 horse field, and going further than he ever has before is too much to smallow pricewise. PYRO would have been co-favored in this race had he shown any life at all in the Blue-Grass. He has a strong win over the CD surface, and an afinity for a surface with some moisture in it but 5-1 may be a bit of anunderlay given the way early speed has begun to hold up today. GAYEGO is an interesting horse at 20-1. He is improving, is versatile, and has seamlessly transferred his form to dirt. He isn't exactly bred to get 1 1/4 mi. which may be his undoing. SMOOTH AIR has the look of a 3yo that has "figured it out". He has won sprinting, improved dramatically in his second start around two turns, and has worked long and strong for sometime. His connections are both low profile but 40-1 is pure nonsense. BIG BROWN is in a class by himself based on his Florida Derby victory. 5-2 is probably on overlay given how much of an edge he has over his competition. However, this is the KY Derby, and they are going to make him earn it.

I will be betting both BIG BROWN and SMOOTH AIR to win.
I will also play some exotics with GAYEGO, PYRO, and COLONEL JOHN.
A small sentimental bet with VISONNARE.

Good Luck,
John