OverlayHunter
04-30-2008, 08:39 PM
In today's (April 30th) 7th at HOL, a N1X Allowance at 8.5 F, Coast Guard was the favorite coming off 3 graded stakes efforts in which he was ITM in 2. His last start was a 1.5 length finish behind Colonel John.
This was clearly a big class drop but he finished 4th about 2 behind the winner. I know it's sometimes difficult to know the strength of talent in these races - from horses that will be running in the claiming ranks shortly to upcoming BC champs - and his figures didn't tower over some of the field and it may not be unreasonable to assume the competition in the last 3 may have taken a toll on him so it's not a total shock that he finished out of the money.
My question - Is there any reason to be generally suspicious of a horse dropping in this situation? It seems to me there isn't but I'm wondering if I'm missing some bit of logic somewhere.
This was clearly a big class drop but he finished 4th about 2 behind the winner. I know it's sometimes difficult to know the strength of talent in these races - from horses that will be running in the claiming ranks shortly to upcoming BC champs - and his figures didn't tower over some of the field and it may not be unreasonable to assume the competition in the last 3 may have taken a toll on him so it's not a total shock that he finished out of the money.
My question - Is there any reason to be generally suspicious of a horse dropping in this situation? It seems to me there isn't but I'm wondering if I'm missing some bit of logic somewhere.