Derby Post Position Selection Order

[joeya]

1. Visionaire
2. Big Truck
3. Colonel John
4. Z Fortune
5. Pyro
6. Eight Belles
7. Anak Nakal
8. Court Humor
9. Z Humor
10. Monba
11. Smooth Air
12. Adriano
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Denis of Cork
15. Cowboy Cal
16. Big Brown
17. Tale of Ekati
18. Cool Coal Man
19. Recapturethegloryecap
20. Gayego

These are not the post positions, only the order in which the connections will select their post positions at today's official draw (5:00-6:00 ESPN2)

[DRIVEWAY]

Big Brown draws 16th. Posts 1,2,18.19.20 should remain. What post would you take?

[joeya]

I think it's safe to assume that two of the major pace factors (Recapturetheglory and Gayego) will be breaking from posts #1 and #20 ...There will only be 5 open slots when Big Brown steps to the podium ... I'm guessing those will be #1, #2, #18, #19, #20 ... he's going to be way outside IMO.

[joeya]

Big Brown draws 16th. Posts 1,2,18.19.20 should remain. What post would you take?

Looks like we posted the same thought at the same time.

I can't see them going inside. Standing in the gate and risking the chance of a slow start. I think they go outside, but that's not an easy spot either.

[ryesteve]

Call me nuts, but if they take #18, I'm not going to understand the logic behind choosing #18 so he can break fast and then maneuver to the inside, when he can already have the inside to begin with.

[Stevie Belmont]

Wow...They will go with 18. I would think. The inside sucks.

[slewis]

I'll bet ANYONE BIG TRUCK takes pp 5 unless Visionaire takes it, then,6 or 7.

[joeya]

Just a hunch but I think Matz will take #8 for Visionaire ... the same post he had with Barbaro two years ago.

[OTM Al]

If BB has the choice between 18 and 2, he would be far better off using his speed and taking the 2 hole than the 18. However, that doesn't seem to be the thinking on this race. He will loose a ton of ground from the 18 and may well need to go way too fast too early. I'll post my derby final picks in my thread after the actual draw, but Colonel John just got a nice uptick in my book as did Pyro and Gayego and BB just took a big hit.

[slewis]

Just a hunch but I think Matz will take #8 for Visionaire ... the same post he had with Barbaro two years ago.

Intresting logic, but I think he takes 6.

[ryesteve]

Wow...They will go with 18. I would think. The inside sucks.Why does it suck if you figure to be on the lead?

[Grits]

If, indeed, he takes the 1 hole?

All--we--along with the other runners and jocks, may be seeing is SHOES!

Four of 'em, growing smaller with each stride.

Still, it pays to be humble, and the racing Gods may be suggesting this to his trainer.

[Marshall Bennett]

A decent break would no doubt be best from the 2 hole for BB . A poor break would serve better from 18 - 20 ? I'll bet they gamble with the 2 . :cool:

[Sundown]

So, with Eight Belles drawing 6th should make her a go for the Derby, right?

[SMOO]

#1 post is INSIDE of the rail, you get crushed if you are a step slow out of the gate.

[DJofSD]

So, with Eight Belles drawing 6th should make her a go for the Derby, right?

You'd kind of think that but who knows for sure until the gates open.

BTW, I think she's got a good chance to hit the board. She's a monster!

[Semipro]

Post 2 so he can control speed and save ground its a no brainer.

[joeya]

Post 2 so he can control speed and save ground its a no brainer.

It would seem that way but it is a tough call for Dutrow. Taking #2 means you're one of the first to load, and that means standing for awhile. He's been one of the last to load in his races this year, going in and popping out. A second slow from the inside and he could be in trouble, getting dirt kicked in his face that Dutrow mentioned as one of the only concerns he had.

With #2 he's going to have Recapturetheglory or Gayego to his inside and they have no choice but to gun from that spot.

Go to the outside and he has no choice but to fire out early to gain position.

I don't think it's going to be as easy as everyone thought regardless of where he ends up.

[Investorater]

I heard the probable favorite-BB-will want to be positioned outside of-BBJ.

[MNslappy]

What do you guys think of the idea that, instead of a random draw to determine the order in which they choose posts, they go by graded earnings instead?

[Stevie Belmont]

1)First to load
2)Other speed to his outside
3)18 horse coming over
4)Have to gun it quick to get the lead

In a perfect world the 2 spot is not bad, but the derby is not the case. I think Kent will have a say. I think there better off on the outside.

Now they will pick the 2 spot.



Why does it suck if you figure to be on the lead?

[ny0707ny]

1. Visionaire
2. Big Truck
3. Colonel John
4. Z Fortune
5. Pyro
6. Eight Belles
7. Anak Nakal
8. Court Humor
9. Z Humor
10. Monba
11. Smooth Air
12. Adriano
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Denis of Cork
15. Cowboy Cal
16. Big Brown
17. Tale of Ekati
18. Cool Coal Man
19. Recapturethegloryecap
20. Gayego

These are not the post positions, only the order in which the connections will select their post positions at today's official draw (5:00-6:00 ESPN2)

Colonel John is a lock now for me. He will have a great post position. Big Brown's chances just went down big with the 16th draw. Either extreme outside or very inside. He is pretty much done. Front runner with a bad post and 3 races only? This would be incredible if he still wins. I will probably faint. I don't plan on fainting either.

I can't respond much because I use a dial-up and this thread will be way active, but since the first Derby was run, the extreme outside has not won much. He would probably be better inside BB. But if he does not get the lead though he will be trapped behind many horses.

16 3
17
18 1
19
20 1

[ryesteve]

1)First to load
2)Other speed to his outside
3)18 horse coming over
4)Have to gun it quick to get the lead
I'll buy #1... how bad that is, I don't know. As for the rest, he's going to be gunning it anyway, and he's going to be immediately clear of pretty much any other horse trying to come over. I'd expect he'd end up being used much harder trying to come over from 18 and establish position.

[SMOO]

What do you guys think of the idea that, instead of a random draw to determine the order in which they choose posts, they go by graded earnings instead?
Good idea, the order of way they get in should also be the order they chose their post. Though i might change both to just 3 year old earnings, less rushed 2 year olds & more preps as a 3 year old.

[john del riccio]

I make BB 8-5 to grab post 20.


John

[borntoride]

Didn't Smarty Jones break at #18?

[FlyinLate]

Didn't Smarty Jones break at #18?

I believe Gato Del Sol won from post 18?

[ny0707ny]

Didn't Smarty Jones break at #18?

Smarty had #15 I believe.

[Stevie Belmont]

Do you think is a better chance to run into problems from the 2 hole or the 16?

[chickenhead]

I'd take the inside. Unless they're gonna have alligators or something down by the rail.

[SMOO]

I'd take the inside. Unless they're gonna have alligators or something down by the rail.

The rail IS on the side of the big party on the infield, so maybe...

[ryesteve]

Do you think is a better chance to run into problems from the 2 hole or the 16?
If we assume that he's going to outbreak the field, my answer is "neither"... it becomes a ground loss/energy expenditure argument. And if, for whatever reason, he doesn't outbreak the field, then this is a huge problem for him no matter stall he's coming out of.

[DJofSD]

And if, for whatever reason, he doesn't outbreak the field, then this is a huge problem for him no matter stall he's coming out of.

I think there's a decent chance BB will not be on the lead like he's use to. I'm not saying he can't get the lead. I'm just expecting some one else to gun their horse or to have a runner get all hyped up b/c of the crowd, etc., and to have it out ahead of BB. And there won't be a damn thing the jock will be able to do about it.

[OTM Al]

Smarty did have the 15 hole which has the one benefit that it is the first slot in the auxiliary gate. This gives a few more feet for the post between the 14 and 15 and thus allows the horse a little more freedom than the others. It will likely be taken before the 13 and 14 for this reason.

So for Big Brown, if the plan is to try to outbreak the field, he would be far better off to the inside than the out as a lot of ground will be saved. It takes a lot more effort to outbreak AND come over for position than to outbreak running straight forward. If you think you have the fastest horse, then from the inside, you should not have trouble from horses coming over. Thus, if they choose on the outside, I am going to assume they want to try to rate him. Not sure he's going to want to do that facing a field of alpha males. His post will definitely determine what I do with him. 18 or out, no higher than 3rd. 1 or 2, then he might be worth considering for higher.

[ny0707ny]

Smarty did have the 15 hole which has the one benefit that it is the first slot in the auxiliary gate. This gives a few more feet for the post between the 14 and 15 and thus allows the horse a little more freedom than the others. It will likely be taken before the 13 and 14 for this reason.

So for Big Brown, if the plan is to try to outbreak the field, he would be far better off to the inside than the out as a lot of ground will be saved. It takes a lot more effort to outbreak AND come over for position than to outbreak running straight forward. If you think you have the fastest horse, then from the inside, you should not have trouble from horses coming over. Thus, if they choose on the outside, I am going to assume they want to try to rate him. Not sure he's going to want to do that facing a field of alpha males. His post will definitely determine what I do with him. 18 or out, no higher than 3rd. 1 or 2, then he might be worth considering for higher.

I think so also that the inside is best for him. The problem is that he is so green this horse that if does not get a really good break, he will be far back behind the others. It would be amazing if he does win though. After the Derby I will support him if he can beat these 19 others. For now, I will go with the Colonel.

[chickenhead]

I'm sure some of you (random chance, at the least, ensures it) have been successful predicting who will and who will not encounter trouble in a 20 horse Derby field based on post position, I sure as hell haven't. A horse can find trouble from anywhere in this race, most of them will.

Big Brown is probably my most likely winner, wherever he starts from, but I can't imagine I'll have even a single ticket with him on it.

[joeya]

Dutrow just selected post #20 ... with 1-2-18-19 still available ...

[joeya]

1. Cool Coal Man
2. Tale of Etaki
3. Anak Nakal
4. Court Vision
5. Eight Belles
6. Z Fortune
7. Big Truck
8. Visionaire
9. Pyro
10. Colonel John
11. Z Humor
12. Smooth Air
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Monba
15. Adriano
16. Denis of Cork
17. Cowboy Cal
18. Recapturetheglory
19. Gayego
20. Big Brown

[FlyinLate]

Dutrow just selected post #20 ... with 1-2-18-19 still available ...

Please tell me he has reasoning behind this like BB can clear the field from here. I bet its 50% him just being the cocky asshole he's been and picked it to attempt to prove a point.

[joeya]

I can only imagine that he wanted to be outside the other speed ... but he has Gayego. Recapturetheglory, and Cowboy Cal immediately to his inside ... Bob Black Jack in the middle of the field and some decent speed inside ... I can't imagine him ever clearing the field, and if he does how hard will he have to run to do it?

I was stunned when I saw it ...

[Wickel]

I know Dutrow wanted to be outside all the other early speed. Well, he got his wish--BB is way outside. AWESOME! Let the longshot picking begin.

[joeya]

Here are the ML Odds ...

1. Cool Coal Man (20-1)
2. Take of Etaki (15-1)
3. Anak Nakal (30-1)
4. Court Vision (20-1)
5. Eight Belles (20-1)
6. Z Fortune (15-1)
7. Big Truck (50-1)
8. Visionaire (20-1)
9. Pyro (8-1)
10. Colonel John (4-1)
11. Z Humor (30-1)
12. Smooth Air (20-1)
13. Bob Black Jack (20-1)
14. Monba (15-1)
15. Adriano (30-1)
16. Denis of Cork (20-1)
17. Cowboy Cal (20-1)
18. Recaputuretheglory (20-1)
19. Gayego (15-1)
20. Big Brown (3-1)

[joeya]

I know Dutrow wanted to be outside all the other early speed. Well, he got his wish--BB is way outside. AWESOME! Let the longshot picking begin.

That post is about 15-20 ft from the outside rail at Churchill ... thousands of people screaming and hollering right in front of the favorite ... good move!

[joeya]

1. Cool Coal Man (20-1)
2. Take of Etaki (15-1)
3. Anak Nakal (30-1)
4. Court Vision (20-1)
5. Eight Belles (20-1)
6. Z Fortune (15-1)
7. Big Truck (50-1)
8. Visionaire (20-1)
9. Pyro (6-1)
10. Colonel John (4-1)
11. Z Humor (30-1)
12. Smooth Air (20-1)
13. Bob Black Jack (20-1)
14. Monba (15-1)
15. Adriano (30-1)
16. Denis of Cork (20-1)
17. Cowboy Cal (20-1)
18. Recaputuretheglory (20-1)
19. Gayego (15-1)
20. Big Brown (3-1)


I had Pyro at 8/1 when he is actually 6/1 ...

[Wickel]

Trying to envision the early speed scenario, Cool Coal Man definitely has to ship from the rail or risk being shut off. He should be joined by Eight Belles, Cowboy Cal, Recapture the Glory and Gayego. That's several speedsters inside of Big Brown. So unless Desormeaux ships hard, he's going to befanned quite wide on the first turn. I'm hoping Cowboy Cal lays just off the early pace, but in the first tier. The closers will also be licking their chops.

[FlyinLate]

Trying to envision the early speed scenario, Cool Coal Man definitely has to ship from the rail or risk being shut off. He should be joined by Eight Belles, Cowboy Cal, Recapture the Glory and Gayego. That's several speedsters inside of Big Brown. So unless Desormeaux ships hard, he's going to befanned quite wide on the first turn. I'm hoping Cowboy Cal lays just off the early pace, but in the first tier. The closers will also be licking their chops.

Im going to assume theyre going to attempt to rate Big Brown. I'm assuming Cowboy Cal, Recapture, and Bob Black Jack will all be at the front. Gayego and Big Brown will be just off of them. This is just assuming they break properly.

[Grits]

I don't think they plan to rate a horse that's won by a combined 29 lengths and has yet to have dirt kicked in his face. Why risk it in a 2 million dollar race?

As Randy Moss noted, only two feet is lost moving over from post 20. And Brown has shown that he's ready from the get go, carving out fractions that are much faster than others. So far.

Still, I hope he's beaten.

[joeya]

...only two feet is lost moving over from post 20.

I find this hard to believe ... especially if you're hung 5-6 wide heading into the first turn.

[Grits]

I find this hard to believe ... especially if you're hung 5-6 wide heading into the first turn.

Believe or not. Those were his exact words. Only two feet is lost. I'm sorry, but I don't make quotes up.

He noted, the greater concern to him . . . Brown's only 15 to 20 ft from the crowd.

[Niko]

What do you guys think of the idea that, instead of a random draw to determine the order in which they choose posts, they go by graded earnings instead?

I have no idea why a horse who barely gets in the Derby should get a better spot than a favorite..I just don't get it. Maybe the first 10-15 should be random and the 4-5 with the least earnings pick last and get the worst posts.

Kind of like in the NCAA where the 1 seed has to face the 16 seed. But this is horse racing so there goes my logic...

[chickenhead]

Believe or not. Those were his exact words. Only two feet is lost. I'm sorry, but I don't make quotes up.

He noted, the greater concern to him . . . Brown's only 15 to 20 ft from the crowd.

If you're whatever, 50ft. from the rail, and end up on the rail at some point, you covered a minimum of 50ft extra to get there. You have to cover that ground someway somehow. That's best case.

[OTM Al]

Oddly enough, only 2 feet is lost if you can take a perfect direct line. Remember Pythagoras and his theorem? A^2 + B^2 = c^2. The stretch to the finishline at CD is about 1240 feet. Add on another furlong, 660 ft to make up for the chute and the length from the finish line to the turn and you have about 1900 ft. on the rail path. Say the track is about 100 feet wide. Thus the hypotenuse is sqrt(1900^2 + 100^2) = 1902.63 ft.

However, he will not get a direct line unless he rams the horse next to him and continues in a perfect straight line to the point on the rail right before the turn. At some point he is going to have to come over suddenly, thus greatly increasing the distance lost, assuming he is able to get over and not be hung wide....

[Robert Fischer]

good stuff Al :jump:

[Bruddah]

Oddly enough, only 2 feet is lost if you can take a perfect direct line. Remember Pythagoras and his theorem? A^2 + B^2 = c^2. The stretch to the finishline at CD is about 1240 feet. Add on another furlong, 660 ft to make up for the chute and the length from the finish line to the turn and you have about 1900 ft. on the rail path. Say the track is about 100 feet wide. Thus the hypotenuse is sqrt(1900^2 + 100^2) = 1902.63 ft.

However, he will not get a direct line unless he rams the horse next to him and continues in a perfect straight line to the point on the rail right before the turn. At some point he is going to have to come over suddenly, thus greatly increasing the distance lost, assuming he is able to get over and not be hung wide....

That's impressive siphering Uncle Al. Now can you help me with my gazenta's. You know, 2 gazenta four and four gazenta eight. :lol: :D

Truly, I was lost as a goose, never the less impressed. :ThmbUp:

[DJofSD]

I find this hard to believe ... especially if you're hung 5-6 wide heading into the first turn.

It is a matter of simple geometry. What Randy Moss was talking about involved measuring two sides of a triangle.

On a piece of paper draw a straight line. Make it a long horizontal line. Now, on the left end of the horizontal line, draw a short line, perpendicular to it. Draw it downwards. This 2nd line needs to be at a right angle, 90 degress. Finally, close the triangle by drawing the remaining line.

The first line represents either the rail or the path of the horse breaking from post position #1. The second line drawn, the one that is at 90 degress, is the starting gate. Finally, the last line which is called the hypotenus. This is the path that BB could run if he's fast and lucky.

Find the length of each line. For the rail, that's the length of the stretch from the starting gate to the beginning of the first turn, call it S. The distance along the shorter line which is the starting gate is a measurement of how far out BB will be while in the starting gate stall. Call it G. The path that BB would run from the starting gate to the first turn, the hypotenuse, call it H.

(1) Compute the hypotenuse: SQRT( S**2 + G**2) = H

(2) Extra ground BB has to run to the 1st turn: H-S.

If S is 2 1/2 furlongs, S= 660 * 2.5 = 1,650.

S**2 = 2,722,500

BB in post position 20 is an estimated 65 feet away from the rail, G=65.

G**2 = 4,225.

S**2 + G**2 = 2,722,500 + 4,225 = 2,726,725 = H**2.

SQRT(H**2) = SQRT(2,726,725) = 1,651.27.

H - S = 1,651.27 - 1,650 = about 2 damn feet.

Now, how far out he might be going into the turn is another matter, and how much ground he might lose b/c of the extra distance is another matter.

[chickenhead]

just remember, pythagoream is only a theory. :lol:

[joeya]

Believe or not. Those were his exact words. Only two feet is lost. I'm sorry, but I don't make quotes up.

He noted, the greater concern to him . . . Brown's only 15 to 20 ft from the crowd.

Grits ... wasn't doubting you. I heard him say the same thing, and when he said it it was hard for me to believe. He's right about the post -- that's only 15-20 ft from the outside rail at Churchill and there will be thousands of screaming fans very much in his view.

[Grits]

I understand, Joeya, I was surprised too.

I'm laughing like crazy now after reading OTMAl and DJofSD's posts with all the figuring--these guys know their stuff, still, after all is done it reads, about two damn feet.:lol: Funny stuff!

Grits ... wasn't doubting you. I heard him say the same thing, and when he said it it was hard for me to believe. He's right about the post -- that's only 15-20 ft from the outside rail at Churchill and there will be thousands of screaming fans very much in his view.

[OTM Al]

As I said though, 2 feet by the absolute shortest path, which would only work if there were 2 horses in the race, one in the 1 hole and 1 in the 20 as there would be nothing to block him coming across. Since that is not the case I will guess he will likely loose something between the extremes of 2 and 100 ft (if he went in a straight line to the rail and then turned right). I would say at least 40 ft will be lost in the straight if he can get anywhere near the rail. If not, he looses it all and probably more in the turn.

[Semipro]

It is a matter of simple geometry. What Randy Moss was talking about involved measuring two sides of a triangle.

On a piece of paper draw a straight line. Make it a long horizontal line. Now, on the left end of the horizontal line, draw a short line, perpendicular to it. Draw it downwards. This 2nd line needs to be at a right angle, 90 degress. Finally, close the triangle by drawing the remaining line.

The first line represents either the rail or the path of the horse breaking from post position #1. The second line drawn, the one that is at 90 degress, is the starting gate. Finally, the last line which is called the hypotenus. This is the path that BB could run if he's fast and lucky.

Find the length of each line. For the rail, that's the length of the stretch from the starting gate to the beginning of the first turn, call it S. The distance along the shorter line which is the starting gate is a measurement of how far out BB will be while in the starting gate stall. Call it G. The path that BB would run from the starting gate to the first turn, the hypotenuse, call it H.

(1) Compute the hypotenuse: SQRT( S**2 + G**2) = H

(2) Extra ground BB has to run to the 1st turn: H-S.

If S is 2 1/2 furlongs, S= 660 * 2.5 = 1,650.

S**2 = 2,722,500

BB in post position 20 is an estimated 65 feet away from the rail, G=65.

G**2 = 4,225.

S**2 + G**2 = 2,722,500 + 4,225 = 2,726,725 = H**2.

SQRT(H**2) = SQRT(2,726,725) = 1,651.27.

H - S = 1,651.27 - 1,650 = about 2 damn feet.

Now, how far out he might be going into the turn is another matter, and how much ground he might lose b/c of the extra distance is another matter.That's if he was in a race by himself it would be 2feet difference with a painted line
the jockey could follow. This is a horse race not a math equation. Do you really believe the 20 post is only going to cost him 2 feet.

[DJofSD]

That's if he was in a race by himself it would be 2feet difference with a painted line
the jockey could follow. This is a horse race not a math equation. Do you really believe the 20 post is only going to cost him 2 feet.

Do I think he's going to get a dream trip? Hell no. Just because I showed how to compute the value that Moss cited on air does not mean that's what I believe will happen in the race.

[slewis]

As I said though, 2 feet by the absolute shortest path, which would only work if there were 2 horses in the race, one in the 1 hole and 1 in the 20 as there would be nothing to block him coming across. Since that is not the case I will guess he will likely loose something between the extremes of 2 and 100 ft (if he went in a straight line to the rail and then turned right). I would say at least 40 ft will be lost in the straight if he can get anywhere near the rail. If not, he looses it all and probably more in the turn.

If you think he will lose "at least 40 ft", you need to have someone tudor you in Geometry, your not even mathematically close.

(hint, it's much less)

[ryesteve]

If you think he will lose "at least 40 ft", you need to have someone tudor you in Geometry
When you jab with your left, you have to remember not to drop your right...

[NYPlayer]

good stuff Al :jump:

There'll be a test on Tuesday.

[OTM Al]

If you think he will lose "at least 40 ft", you need to have someone tudor you in Geometry, your not even mathematically close.

(hint, it's much less)

Um, you really don't pay any attention to anyone but yourself do you? If the horse takes a direct line from the 20 hole to the point on the rail I have already shown clearly as have others here that he loses right around 2 feet. This of course assumes that no other horses are in his way from the very start, which is completely unreasonable. He will not take a straight line, but will have to cut in quickly when chance allows. Such moves are effectively making the rail side leg of the triangle shorter, decreasing the hypotenuse but making the ground loss, assuming all horses are running with exactly the same speed forward, greater. Throwing in the fact that by cutting across you are effectively decreasing your speed vector in the forward direction, that causes additional ground loss. To avoid this second part of the loss he would have to run even faster on the diagonal than the others are running in the forward direction, possible but comes at a cost. Thus I am going to estimate that he will lose approximately 40 ft by taking the 20 hole over the one or 2.

Oh, and FYI Tudor was the royal house in England to which Henry VIII and Elizabeth I belonged. So I suggest you get a tutor on your history.

[slewis]

Um, you really don't pay any attention to anyone but yourself do you? If the horse takes a direct line from the 20 hole to the point on the rail I have already shown clearly as have others here that he loses right around 2 feet. This of course assumes that no other horses are in his way from the very start, which is completely unreasonable. He will not take a straight line, but will have to cut in quickly when chance allows. Such moves are effectively making the rail side leg of the triangle shorter, decreasing the hypotenuse but making the ground loss, assuming all horses are running with exactly the same speed forward, greater. Throwing in the fact that by cutting across you are effectively decreasing your speed vector in the forward direction, that causes additional ground loss. To avoid this second part of the loss he would have to run even faster on the diagonal than the others are running in the forward direction, possible but comes at a cost. Thus I am going to estimate that he will lose approximately 40 ft by taking the 20 hole over the one or 2.

Oh, and FYI Tudor was the royal house in England to which Henry VIII and Elizabeth I belonged. So I suggest you get a tutor on your history.

OK,

I'm very embarrassed.
My spelling sucks.
My history sucks.
Your physics/math is a joke. I repeat. Your not even close.