GDP RISES - Recession Goons Left Reeling

[PaceAdvantage]

Up .6%.....

GDP Increase Undermines Alarmist Claims
Last Update: 30-Apr-08 08:41 ET

The first quarter increase in real GDP at a 0.6% annual rate undermines concerns that economic trends are deteriorating rapidly and even that the economy is in recession. This is not an aberrant number. Inventories added 0.8% to the overall gain, and skeptics will be quick to point out that would have declined at a 0.2% annual rate without this swing factor. However, inventories do reflect economic activity and belong in the calculation. The other component trends reflect surprising resilience and even strength that suggests the outlook for second quarter GDP is surprisingly good.

More here:

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080430084246HeadlineHits

[ljb]

Let's see thats you, Lefty and G.W. Bush. A gathering of financial wizards, if ever there was one. :D

[DJofSD]

Martin Feldstein says you're not interpretting that number correctly and that the language used when reporting the number is misleading. CNBC interview during Closing Bell.

[pktruckdriver]

Why o Why


Hey Bossman, you really are convinced things are just "peachy keen", aren't you?

My God man I do have pity on you, do they need to start jumpimg out the windows as in the 30's, well guess what, those windows don't open anymore, now they must do it in other ways. Not recommending that at all, no way, but com'on man , don't you believe that there was WMD in Iraq too.

Wait that was wrong, but really what will it take to convince you of how bad things really are out here??? I work out here and see "it" everyday and its getting worse ,not better, I hope it was not so bad, really I do, but it is getting really scary out here in the real world, Bossman.

My Opinion
Patrick

Manipulated numbers do not make things right

[OTM Al]

Two things to consider here. The running up of inventories can keep producers running for the short term. However there is a point where they stop running up inventories because they simply won't be able to sell the stock they have. So don't count on this being there for long. Second, that is total GDP with very low growth. This gives a warning that per capita GDP may be falling, ie consumers are worse off

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Bossman, you really are convinced things are just "peachy keen", aren't you?You're an odd duck.

I've never once conveyed any indication that I think things are "peachy." I HAVE stated multiple times that it's clear we are in an economic slowdown. There's a difference between a slowdown and a recession/depression.

The employment number this week will be telling. Wednesday's ADP employment number surprisingly showed a 10,000 GAIN in jobs, compared to the expected 60,000 LOSS.....big difference, but the ADP number isn't considered all that reliable....

Non-farm payrolls on Friday might be interesting....

Bottom line....still no recession....and General Franciso Franco is STILL dead....

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's see thats you, Lefty and G.W. Bush. A gathering of financial wizards, if ever there was one. :DWhy let facts get in the way of a broken record?

[ljb]

Why let facts get in the way of a broken record?
You should have learned by now. Anything that comes from this government is pure bs. Maybe soon we will have facts but for now we have wmds and mission accomplished and heckuva job brownie type data. But you and Lefty and Gw continue on your merry way in fantasy land. enjoy :jump:

[DJofSD]

....and General Franciso Franco is STILL dead....

:lol: That brings back some memories!

[PaceAdvantage]

You should have learned by now. Anything that comes from this government is pure bs.Ah, the groans and moans of a true goon. If you can't agree with the facts, simply label the facts NOT FACTS. How convenient for you....

I suppose this method of yours works equally well with speeding tickets and income tax returns?

[pktruckdriver]

A Duck??? :confused: :confused:

[ljb]

Ah, the groans and moans of a true goon. If you can't agree with the facts, simply label the facts NOT FACTS. How convenient for you....

I suppose this method of yours works equally well with speeding tickets and income tax returns?
This from DJofSD above
Martin Feldstein says you're not interpretting that number correctly and that the language used when reporting the number is misleading. CNBC interview during Closing Bell.
Are you calling Martin Feldstein a goon?
“language used when reporting the number is misleading”.
Hate to keep popping your balloon PA, but someone has to.
Like I have been saying here for years. Truth hurts.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not interpreting the number correctly? A RISE is a RISE is a RISE is a RISE is a RISE.

Especially in a time when we're supposed to be in the middle of some DEEP, DARK, SCARY RECESSION bordering on a DEPRESSION! :lol:

Deep, dark, scary RECESSIONS don't produce RISES in GDP quarter after quarter, NO MATTER THE INTERPRETATION.

Talk about using the politics of FEAR.....unreal.....

[Tom]

The fear I have - and it is very real - is that the price of gas and healthcare are just about to make it more profitable for me to go on welfare and food stamps than continue to drive to work every day. I am not alone. I won't, at least not yet ( but hey, who knows, next year......why not - everyone else gets a free ride). Many will choose this option. And with a dem government looming, no one will be denied a free ride. Until the whole thinkg crashes.

Right now, we have a total governement failure to do it's job. Every level.
The dems whine about price gouging for fule, but refuse to budge an inch on cutting back thier cut of the loot ( gas taxes). They whine about dependence on foreign oil, yet refuse to do anything about increasing our own drilling for our oil. In a world where the oil supply is not guarrenteed, they want to cut our strategic supply. They whine about global warming, but refuse to admit using less oil is a good thing in that regard.

And Bush......I dunno what planet he is on anymore.

There are many specific, short and long term things we should be doing. So far, nothing but talk from anyone. And out B teams are up to bat in 2008. Or C teams.

[DJofSD]

Are you calling Martin Feldstein a goon?

No.

I'm pointing out that an wiser, more informed opinion is out there and it is that the numbers should not be taken on the face of them. There's more to the story than 'look, it's not negative, so, we're doing OK.'

[OTM Al]

No PA, I'm afraid its not. A rise in total GDP is of course better than a fall, but increase in GDP needs to maintain the rate of population increase to keep everyone at the same per capita level of GDP. A rise in GDP below this rate, which I believe is around 1% means that people on average are worse off. Furthermore, GDP needs to grow at around 2.5% to maintain a constant unemployment rate.

Compounding this, as I said before, is the run up in inventories that is the thing keeping this from being negative. Inventory run up means that firms are not able to sell their products. That means in the future they won't need to produce as much, which means less jobs needed. Inventory run ups tend to be a strong sign of recession.

I know you want to be positive about all this and I commend you for it, because belief does play a major role in the economy, but these are very bad signs. And for those left leaners around here, sorry, but its not all Bush's fault. He and congress (that would be the congress as it existed a few years ago) can take some blame, but there are plenty of other factors out there.

[rrpic6]

Good times continue for the oil boys...well almost..only 17% profit???



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_exxon_mobil

RR

[Lefty]

Good times continue for the oil boys...well almost..only 17% profit???



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_exxon_mobil

RR
Yes, how dare a that sells a product that is in great demand make a profit in a capitalistic society.
Now tell us how much they spent in exploration ofthat product and how much they spent in search of new products. Now tell us how much the govt took in via taxes with no risk whatsoever.

[JustRalph]

once again the Left is moving the goal posts to fit their agenda

[DJofSD]

What agenda might that be? Taking the profits away from the oil companies and giving them to Al Gore?

[Tom]

The gov whines about big oil profits, but suggest a tax hoiliday and they circle the wagons - true bipartisanship - make sure they keep thier share! Bastards.:mad:

[bill]

i know you own the board but why would you refer to anyone this way




Goon





It almost exclusively refers to criminal people.





A goofy person or a synonym for thug.



do you place your inteligence or character above these people

[rrpic6]

Yes, how dare a that sells a product that is in great demand make a profit in a capitalistic society.
Now tell us how much they spent in exploration ofthat product and how much they spent in search of new products. Now tell us how much the govt took in via taxes with no risk whatsoever.

Lefty, glad things are great in your little world.
Jcrabboy responds to the price of oil and how it affects the common citizen in another thread by PA...who likes to think there is no recession.

My take on how the price of oil, and the obvious recession has affected my life:

I actually like this recession, it has made my daily routines a lot better. My job at the USPS has gotter really easy, our mail volume is down 15% from last year. No more working 10 hour days. I actually get a day off during the week also, as overtime is not allowed, as we are drowning in debt with the gas prices. I get home to make my wagers with time to spare. I have installed a satelite dish, so no more rides to the OTB or Mountaineer. I save even more money since I have less of a menu to bet on with my ADW. I no longer make spur of the moment bets, just well prepared ones. No chasing big Pick 6 carryovers with wild $3000-$10000 tickets.
I just got to lease a new AMERICAN made car..no money down..the salesman was almost huggging me. I have no respect for Americans buying foreign cars.
There are no waiting around at local restaurants for a table anymore. The price of gas took care of that. My girlfriend cuts back from filet to pasta. No stress eating out for me anymore.
I was able to fly to Florida to golf with some friends last month...no hassles again. The plane was half full. No lines at the rent-a-car station. We got a helluva deal on a Chrysler 300...AMERICAR CAR!! The clerk was sooooo nice, as business was terrible. Little traffic to slow us down during our trip....spring break numbers were way down. I'm with you Lefty! Recessions are cool! Go Oil Companies Go!

RR

[Lefty]

rr, don't know where i've said i like the price of oil. I just posed reasons why it was so high. You better go bk and read my posts. Now idiots on the left are suggesting a windfall profits tax. Anybody that thinks that will work, i've got some great stuff to sell them.

[pktruckdriver]

RRPIC6 and Tom


I applaud your posts :ThmbUp: .

You are living in this wonderful times, not recession, just absolutely wonderful times we have going on right now. Bossman are you filthy rich or just rich??

The rich never see down here, heck why should they or why do they need to?

I live down here, Dag Nabbit, Quack Quack, and right now it sucks in more ways than you could , yes , shake a stick at. But unless your're here with me you don't see it, thats ok though, its still here, and believe me i hope you never see it, really I do, stay up there, enjoy life, and think all is ok.

Patrick, the duck

[PaceAdvantage]

Economic slowdown does not equal recession. Sorry folks.

Not matter how many silly jokes you throw my way, no matter how many times you call me "bossman," it still doesn't make it that we're in a recession. Numbers don't lie.

GDP is still rising. Job loss is nowhere NEAR recession levels. I could go on, but those are the two biggies when it comes to recessions.....

[JustRalph]

Economic slowdown does not equal recession. Sorry folks.

Not matter how many silly jokes you throw my way, no matter how many times you call me "bossman," it still doesn't make it that we're in a recession. Numbers don't lie.

GDP is still rising. Job loss is nowhere NEAR recession levels. I could go on, but those are the two biggies when it comes to recessions.....

Why let the facts get in the way :lol:

[Tread]

The PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES for Q1 GDP show a small increase. Those estimates are based on an ESTIMATED inflation rate of 2.6%, which is probably way too low. These numbers continue to be revised as more data comes in, we'll see what the final number ends up being.

"In coming up with the 0.6 percent annual growth figure, the Commerce Department decided that inflation was just 2.6 percent.


That's lower than Wall Street had been expecting and a tad higher than in the fourth quarter.

Still, the 2.6 percent figure for price increases used for the GDP calculation was nowhere near the 4 percent inflation calculated by other government agencies.

If inflation, for instance, had been 4 percent then the nation's economy would have contracted by an 0.8 percent annualized rate.

And not only that, if inflation was being honestly reported the economy would have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2007 as well. In other words, there would have been two straight quarterly declines in GDP and the debate over whether or not we are in a recession would be settled. "

[Valuist]

Other than the Ag companies, I have to think there's quite a few companies who are having rising inventories. Check out a chart of CROX.

I talked to our Wal-Mart sales rep and despite the fact WMT stock has been on a steady rise, he says people there are "scared. They're selling a lot of food and gas but not much else".

[DJofSD]

Check out a chart of CROX.

Not a good example. CROX was a one trick pony that had nothing else to follow up with after the initial success. They were not different than Jones Soda -- valuations pushed unreasonably high and then when the novelty wore off, the price plunges.

[Tom]

Why let the facts get in the way :lol:
They can't deal with facts - that is why they try to spin everything. Do you think the local libs are ill, or what? They have had nothing coherent to throw out this election. This year it is like wiffle ball!:lol:

[Tread]

You guys can call these "facts" all you want, but the only fact is that this figure is an ESTIMATE based on what many economist think is a ridiculously low ESTIMATED inflation rate. As more data comes in and the estimate becomes finalized, then you may refer to it as a fact.

[JustRalph]

It's a damn depression............... ??

You gotta admit it's an interesting subject. I still think it all boils down to regional problems. Several areas have taxed themselves into recession.........

Check out this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3241615