Kentucky Derby Odds

[menifee]

I just started looking at the european books and the illegal books (bodog, etc) for current futures on the Derby.

Big Brown is 5/2. Colonel John is 9/2. Pyro is 7-1. I'm a little annoyed because Denis of Cork is only 12/1. He was my play and now that he's been working well - been written up on blood horse and now being labeled the wise guy horse by the Washington Post he no longer has value. Though I suspect he will at least be 15-1 at post time.

I'll use him, but I may have to find other value. The surprises to me were Monba, Gayego and Tale of Ekati. Each of these are 20-1. When in history have the Blue Grass winner, the Arkansas Derby winner and the Wood winner each been at least 20-1??

I doubt they will each that high at post, but they sure will have value.

[FlyinLate]

I just started looking at the european books and the illegal books (bodog, etc) for current futures on the Derby.

Big Brown is 5/2. Colonel John is 9/2. Pyro is 7-1. I'm a little annoyed because Denis of Cork is only 12/1. He was my play and now that he's been working well - been written up on blood horse and now being labeled the wise guy horse by the Washington Post he no longer has value. Though I suspect he will at least be 15-1 at post time.

I'll use him, but I may have to find other value. The surprises to me were Monba, Gayego and Tale of Ekati. Each of these are 20-1. When in history have the Blue Grass winner, the Arkansas Derby winner and the Wood winner each been at least 20-1??

I doubt they will each that high at post, but they sure will have value.

Im assuming Gayego, ToE, and Monba will all have MLs of around 12-1.
Reasoning would be Monba loves synthetic, already proved it.
Tale of Ekati did wear down WP, but in a slow last quarter.
Gayego hasn't really beaten too many major players.

[MNslappy]

Wonder what Eight Belles will be listed at on the M/L...anyone want to take a guess?

[FunkyMonkey]

Wonder what Eight Belles will be listed at on the M/L...anyone want to take a guess?

how about 7/1?

[MNslappy]

She's going to end up being the underlay of the field IMO.

[FunkyMonkey]

She's going to end up being the underlay of the field IMO.

I'm thinking along similar lines here...but I have been wrong before :)

[menifee]

I actually think she will be an overlay.

Why do you think that? Because people will be betting the filly angle? There is not a lot of press coverage about her and she does not have a name trainer, etc.

[DJofSD]

She's going to end up being the underlay of the field IMO.

Hey, keep it quiet about that runner. Shhhhhhushhh. :)

[Valupix]

I just started looking at the european books and the illegal books (bodog, etc) for current futures on the Derby.

Big Brown is 5/2. Colonel John is 9/2. Pyro is 7-1. I'm a little annoyed because Denis of Cork is only 12/1. He was my play and now that he's been working well - been written up on blood horse and now being labeled the wise guy horse by the Washington Post he no longer has value. Though I suspect he will at least be 15-1 at post time.

I'll use him, but I may have to find other value. The surprises to me were Monba, Gayego and Tale of Ekati. Each of these are 20-1. When in history have the Blue Grass winner, the Arkansas Derby winner and the Wood winner each been at least 20-1??

I doubt they will each that high at post, but they sure will have value.

How much would you need to consider him an overlay?

I'm a strictly value player myself. But I can't say I see many horses that I "like" that I would not consider 12/1 to be value.

There are some I would need more than 12/1 before I would make a play. But it wouldn't be very often that I would proclaim them the main horse I "like" for a given race.

[DJofSD]

Mike made BB 3:1 b/c of position 20 and CJ is ML 4:1.