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JustRalph
04-29-2008, 06:04 PM
John White is picking Smooth Air. I actually like the horse............ but sometimes I think these guys can be a jinx................ :lol:

I don't like the drifting that BBrown did in the Fla Derby. My normal MO is to consider these horses tired and many times I just plain throw them out next out. I don't think BB is a throw out. He just might improve being lightly raced and all. But I do have my suspicions about the weaving in the lane.

Smooth Air ran a big one right behind Big Brown.......and I was very impressed by it. Where does he end up? Any thoughts?

MNslappy
04-29-2008, 06:35 PM
John White is picking Smooth Air. I actually like the horse............ but sometimes I think these guys can be a jinx................ :lol:


Paul Allen, the announcer at CBY, has something like an 0-17 losing streak picking Derby winners. I know I always pay attention to what he says in order to come up with one of my throw outs. :D (I think he's on Colonel John this year.)

DJofSD
04-29-2008, 06:37 PM
Will be part of the early pace. That's it.

Shenanigans
04-29-2008, 06:38 PM
John White is picking Smooth Air. I actually like the horse............ but sometimes I think these guys can be a jinx................ :lol:

I don't like the drifting that BBrown did in the Fla Derby. My normal MO is to consider these horses tired and many times I just plain throw them out next out. I don't think BB is a throw out. He just might improve being lightly raced and all. But I do have my suspicions about the weaving in the lane.

Smooth Air ran a big one right behind Big Brown.......and I was very impressed by it. Where does he end up? Any thoughts?

That weaving in the lane looked like it was mostly the jocks fault. He pulled the horses head to the left (asking him to switch leads, must of thought he didn't) and it seemed the horse was just overly responding to what the jock was asking.

classhandicapper
04-29-2008, 07:26 PM
I read that he missed a few days of work with a mild fever.

Richie
04-29-2008, 08:48 PM
IMO, in the money no doubt, great works, trained perfectly by the old timer, figs that put him right there. My key, but I been watching this one since Jan, and I am biased, since I have him at 196-1 in the futures, this horse will be first or second with a furlong to go. By the way, the leader with a furlong to go is about 43-45 in the derby. I have no doubt. Good Luck

Richie
04-29-2008, 08:50 PM
Oh, by the way, I had my balls on Silver Charm, who happened to be one of the only 2 who lost the lead with a furlong to go. :mad:

cnollfan
04-29-2008, 09:20 PM
Oh, by the way, I had my balls on Silver Charm, who happened to be one of the only 2 who lost the lead with a furlong to go. :mad:

Uh, Silver Charm won the Kentucky Derby.

Cangamble
04-29-2008, 09:46 PM
Of over 30 days.
Not my favorite angle when it comes to distances like a mile and a quarter.
This might be Big Brown's downfall as well.

Robert Fischer
04-29-2008, 09:50 PM
My old man is also picking Smooth Air. Personally I do not like the horse for the derby. I think that 10 furlongs is too much and I question his peak talent level.
Smooth Air is a real nice horse. He could be one of those who always rise to the occasion and put in a real competitive race.:ThmbUp:

Semipro
04-29-2008, 09:51 PM
That weaving in the lane looked like it was mostly the jocks fault. He pulled the horses head to the left (asking him to switch leads, must of thought he didn't) and it seemed the horse was just overly responding to what the jock was asking.Appeared to me it was the use of the whip looked liked it confused him sort of like when stung by a wasp and not knowing which way to go to get away from it.

Cangamble
04-29-2008, 09:58 PM
In the last 15 years or so, I think the only winner to have a 30 plus day layoff was Barbaro, and I think that every horse who won other than Sea Hero had a Beyer of at least 100 last race.

rastajenk
04-30-2008, 06:31 AM
"every horse who won other than Sea Hero had a Beyer of at least 100 last race."

And the Patron Saint of Redboarders, Giacomo.

Cangamble
04-30-2008, 07:30 AM
"every horse who won other than Sea Hero had a Beyer of at least 100 last race."

And the Patron Saint of Redboarders, Giacomo.
You just beat me to the punch. I didn't see his PP's until 5 minutes ago.
He was coming off a 95 Beyer, but it is my understanding that in his year, the field was exceptionally weak when it came to Beyer numbers.
Still the 30 day layoff is a big factor.

rastajenk
04-30-2008, 07:39 AM
I don't recall that. His field had Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex in it, for starters. I think High Fly and High Limit had decent numbers...Bandini...Greeley's Galaxy...Not great stuff as it turned out, but at the moment, not bad.

Cangamble
04-30-2008, 07:43 AM
I don't recall that. His field had Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex in it, for starters. I think High Fly and High Limit had decent numbers...Bandini...Greeley's Galaxy...Not great stuff as it turned out, but at the moment, not bad.
There were a lot less 100 plus Beyer horses than most years.

john del riccio
04-30-2008, 09:25 AM
I really would love to know how this horse is doing. Following a fever, to run in this particular race is bothersome.


John

Tread
04-30-2008, 04:52 PM
who cares about the fever, he is an instant toss anyway. Big Brown beat him by 5 in his last, and that only because BB geared down early. The 3rd and 4th place finishers in that race didnt even make the Derby, so its not like he beat anyone.

The race before, he was outkicked in the stretch by Big Truck. This horse has neither the front end speed to be on the pace, nor the closing kick to come from off it if things fall apart on the front. One of the easiest tosses in the entire race, fever or no fever.

JustRalph
04-30-2008, 05:52 PM
now we are getting to the meat of the thread............. :ThmbUp:

plainolebill
05-01-2008, 12:16 AM
Never won beyond 7f..... plonk :ThmbDown:

NYPlayer
05-01-2008, 12:36 AM
Smooth Air is my second choice after Recapture, but admittedly, I'm a little disturbed to learn that he had a fever. He kind of reminds me of Hard Spun - several progressively better races in a row. He's had adequate time off since his last, and the timing seems right for another forward move, although I think it will be only a modest one.

I do like Recapture the best (if one can have a top choice in this field). This horse showed some hint of talent as a 2yo. His last was a big effort and I think it signals that more imporvement will be forthcoming. However, the postive interprestation of his form disregards his turf and polytrak races. Starting from post 18 really doesn't help. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.