Kentucky Oaks is Friday

[ny0707ny]

Not much talk about this race. My favorite horse is Country Star. I have to see the PP for it though. Should be a great race.

[joeya]

1. Golden Doc A ... 12/1 ... 12/1
2. Absolutely Cindy ... 20/1 ... 20/1
3. Awesome Chic ... 20/1 ... 20/1
4. Elusive Lady ... 30/1 ... 30/1
5. Rasierra ... 50/1 ... 50/1
6. Country Star ... 4/1 ... 3/1
7. Little Belle ... 8/1 ... 8/1
8. Proud Spell ... 7/2 ... 5/2
9. A to the Croft ... 20/1 ... 20/1
10. Bsharpsonata ... 6/1 ... 5/1
11. Pure Clan ... 6/1 ... 7/2
12. Eight Belles ... 5/1 ... SCR

The second odds line is the Alternate Morning Line in case Eight Belles scratches to run in the Derby.

[Semipro]

1. Golden Doc A ... 12/1 ... 12/1
2. Absolutely Cindy ... 20/1 ... 20/1
3. Awesome Chic ... 20/1 ... 20/1
4. Elusive Lady ... 30/1 ... 30/1
5. Rasierra ... 50/1 ... 50/1
6. Country Star ... 4/1 ... 3/1
7. Little Belle ... 8/1 ... 8/1
8. Proud Spell ... 7/2 ... 5/2
9. A to the Croft ... 20/1 ... 20/1
10. Bsharpsonata ... 6/1 ... 5/1
11. Pure Clan ... 6/1 ... 7/2
12. Eight Belles ... 5/1 ... SCR

The second odds line is the Alternate Morning Line in case Eight Belles scratches to run in the Derby.Looks like the chalk should walk

[ny0707ny]

Looks like the chalk should walk

Did you ever see Country Star run? She is from Empire Maker. I wonder if this race is on TV. ESPN don't show much horse racing anymore.

[Marshall Bennett]

Did you ever see Country Star run? She is from Empire Maker. I wonder if this race is on TV. ESPN don't show much horse racing anymore.
ESPN2 Friday afternoon @ 5:00 est

[ny0707ny]

ESPN2 Friday afternoon @ 5:00 est

They are showing it? Wow. All is not lost yet I guess then.

Country Star will have her first race on the dirt. Interesting race. Empire Maker loved the dirt so I will figure she will give Proud Spell a run. Probably will go with Country Star after looking at the PP here.

[Semipro]

Did you ever see Country Star run? She is from Empire Maker. I wonder if this race is on TV. ESPN don't show much horse racing anymore.Yes I have seen her race think she's a very talented horse but if EB runs in derby I believe she will be second chioce and appears to me part of a two horse race with Proud Spell and think the exacta will pay about 12 dollars that's why I think it will be very chalky. Empire Maker was a very very good race horse.BTW I also like Colonel John along with Gayego to hit the board in the Derby behind BB.

[FlyinLate]

Not much talk about this race. My favorite horse is Country Star. I have to see the PP for it though. Should be a great race.

You really love last years stars don't ya?

It's all about Pure Clan, plain and simple.

[ny0707ny]

You really love last years stars don't ya?

It's all about Pure Clan, plain and simple.

Pure Clan is ok but she came in 3rd last out in a 4 horse race. She went from a 89 to a 97. I think she may bounce down a bit on Friday. Country Star didn't run fast at Keeneland non-dirt track. Hollywood ran a 93 beyer. Non-dirt also but I think the dirt track should run in high 90s. Will depend on the pace if she has more advantage.

[FlyinLate]

Pure Clan is ok but she came in 3rd last out in a 4 horse race. She went from a 89 to a 97. I think she may bounce down a bit on Friday. Country Star didn't run fast at Keeneland non-dirt track. Hollywood ran a 93 beyer. Non-dirt also but I think the dirt track should run in high 90s. Will depend on the pace if she has more advantage.

Country Star was my selection going in to this year. When she came back this year to run only one poor prep race (poly or not), I couldn't see myself backing her.

[Tex9Down]

I'm going with Bsharpsonata.
We like Proud Spell and Eight Bells also, but one or both might run in the Derby? Is the word on those out yet? I get my most useful info here first.......

[ManeMediaMogul]

I'm going with Bsharpsonata.
We like Proud Spell and Eight Bells also, but one or both might run in the Derby? Is the word on those out yet? I get my most useful info here first.......

Eight Belles is running in the Derby.

Country Star's speed figures are a little weak in comparison to the field. The same was the case at Keeneland and she got trounced. Could it be that she was best as a two-year-old and that the Class of 2005 has passed her by?

Pure Clan will be making her third start off a layoff. Bob Holtus has been pointing her for this race and she loves Churchill Downs.

Proud Spell may have bounced off her big effort in the Fair Grounds Oaks and might rebound. Her excellent work indicates she is sharp again.

Golden Doc A is 12-1 on the morning line, just ran a bang-up second to Ariege and gets Kent Desormeaux Friday. She looks like a live longshot.

[FunkyMonkey]

Bsharpsonata

Golden Doc A

Eight Belles

(in no particular order, assuming they all run)

P.S. If Eight Belles run in the Derby, then I like Little Belle to be in the top 3.

[Valupix]

This is just my opinion. Based on nothing but my meager handicapping abilities and my instincts.

The reason Eight Belles is being pointed more towards the Derby than the Oaks is that she can not beat Proud Spell.

If she has no chance to beat her stablemate why not take a stab on the chance, as do so many Derby's that the race falls apart and she just might catch lightning-in-a-bottle and be there to pick up the pieces.

She has no other chances of winning. But Derby falls apart so often it's worth a shot.

[FunkyMonkey]

Interesting how instinct works...my instinct suggests that Proud Spell will probably end the OAKS in the bottom five...and, I have a feeling that Eight Belles will likely be bottom 10 in the derby. Only time will tell.

[Valupix]

Interesting how instinct works...my instinct suggests that Proud Spell will probably end the OAKS in the bottom five...and, I have a feeling that Eight Belles will likely be bottom 10 in the derby. Only time will tell.

I did not suggest Proud Spell would beat anyone else, just that she clearly looks better than Eight Belles.

Those two fillies have been listed on pre-Derby contender list for some time now and after looking at advance pp's it seems clear to me Proud spell is much more talented.

I have not compared either to anyone else that is running in the Oaks and have not looked at any Oaks pp's or data to develop an opinion of who might win. These two could be the worst two of the field for all I know at this point. But only in comparing the two against only each other, it look quite clear to me which is the better racehorse.

But again that could mean nothing in the end.

I make far more incorrect calls in this game than I do correct ones. But in a game were the pre-race consensus best horse loses twice as often as it wins, luckily I don’t have to be correct more often to make money.

[cj]

Pure Clan.

[FunkyMonkey]

I

I have not compared either to anyone else that is running in the Oaks and have not looked at any Oaks pp's or data to develop an opinion of who might win.



Would be interested in your take if you get a chance to look over the other horses pps...if you care to share...which is all I was trying to do.

[FlyinLate]

Eight Belles' reasoning is not that she can't take Proud Spell.

Eight Belles is also not officially in the derby. Her owner has already stated that if she receives posts 9, 19, or 20 then she will be reverting back to the Oaks. The owners have a case of derby fever, they're not worried about Proud Spell. Eight Belles is hands down the best filly of this class, if only picking a derby selection would be this easy.

Pure Clan over Proud Spell ice cold oaks exacta :ThmbUp:

[Valupix]

Would be interested in your take if you get a chance to look over the other horses pps...if you care to share...which is all I was trying to do.

It will be Thursday before I make that decision, but I will share it.

[Swale]

I'm REALLY gonna go out on a limb and use Rasierra. Not necessarily to win the race but to at least crash the exotics.

I know she's fairly outclassed, but she moved up to a 91 BSF last time, and I don't think the horses who regularly Beyer in the high 90s are gonna all do it again - a number fairly close to that 91 (maybe a 94) should get her into the money. Plus, since the Instant Racing, she's working lights out at CD so the likelihood of a bounce is minimized (plus at 40-1 or so, who plays for a bounce?). Her best 2 races are her two races that weren't sprints, so perhaps 1 1/8 suits her despite her breeding.

Or am I just crazy?

[joeya]

I'm REALLY gonna go out on a limb and use Rasierra. Not necessarily to win the race but to at least crash the exotics.

I know she's fairly outclassed, but she moved up to a 91 BSF last time, and I don't think the horses who regularly Beyer in the high 90s are gonna all do it again - a number fairly close to that 91 (maybe a 94) should get her into the money. Plus, since the Instant Racing, she's working lights out at CD so the likelihood of a bounce is minimized (plus at 40-1 or so, who plays for a bounce?). Her best 2 races are her two races that weren't sprints, so perhaps 1 1/8 suits her despite her breeding.

Or am I just crazy?

I don't think you're crazy ... especially at 50/1 ML. Granted this is a huge leap in class, but she took a huge leap forward last time and she has trained impressively here at Churchill. Connections paid $25,000 to supplement her into the race.

She worked :46.3 over the track April 28 ... consider some of the other works at the distance that morning ... Bob Black Jack 48.3, Dennis of Cork 48.0, Pyro 49.4, Visionaire 48.2, Z Fortune 51.0, Elite Squadron 48.2 (GSP), Blackberry Road 48.2 (multiple GSP), Forty Grams 51.20 (GSW), Grapelli 49.4 (GSP) and Noonmark 50.1 (GSW) ...

Her last race was her first around two turns on dirt, the filly that beat her is 3 for 3, and that day she beat Sky Mom by nearly six lengths ... Sky Mom is a three-time SW who finished 3rd behind Pure Clan in the Pocohontas-G3 at Churchill last fall, beaten two lengths.

[Tee]

Little Belle

[GaryG]

I have Pure Clan to several contenders in the Derby Double.

[melman]

The results

1st 8 Proud Spell $8.80 $4.80
2nd 7 Little Belle $6.40
3rd 11 Pure Clan

ex $52.60
tri $239.20