APRIL CONTEST #1...."EXACTAS-R-US"....DAY 28, 4/28......

[ryesteve]

STANDINGS:

........................RACES...WINS........$$$

RYESTEVE..........135........37...........$ 1546.40

Parshooter.........130........37...........$ 1313.20
HTRFGuy............115........32...........$ 1238.20
Dartman51.........135........27...........$ 1218.40
Canleakid...........135........35...........$ 1117.90
Rcknhrse............125........30............$ 984.40
Shots...................75........26............$ 901.80
Omalley.............115........20.............$ 816.60
Sally..................125........29............ $ 811.10
Rookie..................85........28............$ 726.00
ljb........................50........12......... . $ 634.30
HeyDude............115.........9.............$ 433.20
CMoore.................43.........8............$ 281.10
Huggintherail........45.........7............$ 217.20
Rusrious...............30.........8.............$ 202.20
Wintheone............40..........1............$ 159.00
Pandy...................5..........1.............. $ 55.80
Juanepstein...........5..........1..............$ 21.00
RobtFischer...........5..........1..............$ 12.80
Husker55.............10..........1..............$ 11.00
Onefast99.............5..........0................ $0



LARGEST WIN:

1st........RYESTEVE..........$209.60
2nd...........ljb..........................$200.80
3rd..........Dartman51...............$193.60

[ryesteve]

As this contest draws to a close, a few things:

1) I could've sworn Rookie was supposed to be gone just a couple of days... where the heck is he?

2) Who wants to run next month's?

3) I'm curious: has this contest changed the way any of you think towards 3 horse exacta boxes?

[HTRFGuy]

As this contest draws to a close, a few things:

1) I could've sworn Rookie was supposed to be gone just a couple of days... where the heck is he?

2) Who wants to run next month's?

3) I'm curious: has this contest changed the way any of you think towards 3 horse exacta boxes?

With one exception, ljb who has played 50 races, NO ONE is making any money
on this wager.

[parshooter]

3 horse exactas... hmm 130 plays @ $12 = $1560.00
winnings 1313.00
monthly loss (247.00)

not effective .. hope I don't have to belly up to the window to cover these.
Actually looking real time at odds may help. Preplaying and not knowing exacta payouts not profitable. Just rambling

Today's picks

Mountaineer

Race 1: 2-8-9 (alt 7)
Race 2: 2-4-6
Race 5: 2-5-9
Race 9: 1-7-8
Race 10: 6-7-9 (alt 2)

I will not return late today - steve would you monitor my payouts should any occur? Thank you in advance.

Good luck everyone :)

[ryesteve]

With one exception, ljb who has played 50 races, NO ONE is making any money
on this wager.
Shots is ahead as well...

But yeah, I didn't want to bias the answers, but that's kind of what I was getting at. Going in, I knew that 3 horse boxes weren't appropriate to the way I make selections, so I'm not surprised by my results. I was wondering if there were folks out there who generally do like to bet this way, but might have come away starting to rethink it...

I will not return late today - steve would you monitor my payouts should any occur? Thank you in advance.
Sure, not a problem...

[ljb]

Shots is up a buck, Ryesteve is beating the take. And yes I have only played 50 races. Also note both Ryesteve and I have picked some large payoffs. My preliminary look at the current results indicate one has to adjust their handicapping when playing three horse boxes. You have to find some longshots to include in your top three. Throw out the ml fav and pick three you think can be in it.
Rookie is currently at about 33 percent wins but is losing money.
Shots is currently winning at a 35 percent rate and up just a buck.

[ljb]

up late last night going to just play philly today.
Philly
R1
#2,3,6 alt 1

R5
#4,6,7 alt 5

R7
#1,2,7 alt 6

R8
2,4,5 alt 6

R9
#4,5,7 alt 6

[pktruckdriver]

My logic behind three horse boxes , are as follows for and that would be to box the 3 longest shots in the race and pray. No really that is what I do alot when I was just an occasional player at the track, going for the bigger payouts, you must bet the biggest odds, right.


But to play them normally, you'd have to keep track of the payouts to see if they are playable, otherwise, no don't play them, kinda the same with any odds, check the payouts to see if it's palyable, or worth the risk.

Just my two sense, sorry.

Patrick

[ryesteve]

My logic behind three horse boxes , are as follows for and that would be to box the 3 longest shots in the race and pray. No really that is what I do alot when I was just an occasional player at the track, going for the bigger payouts, you must bet the biggest odds, right.
If the size of the payout is your prime motivator, then you need to be playing the lottery, not horses. Or just go to a casino and put a stack of chips on one number at the roulette wheel. Seriously.

[HTRFGuy]

Hawthorne

R2 3-5-7 (Alt 4)
R4 3-5-7 (6)
R7 1-7-8 (2)
R9 2-3-6 (5)
R10 5-7-8 (2)

Alt Race R6 1-4-5 (7)

[sally]

I was thinking that tri boxes might be a good way to go, but seeing how I've been doing with ex. boxes has given me pause...:D so this contest has been an eye opener for me--


Beulah
R4 1-4-7 alt. 2
R6 2-6-7 alt. 1
R7 1-5-6 alt. 2
R8 1-4-6 alt. 5
R9 1-2-3 alt. 6

[HEY DUDE]

PHA R1 1-3-5

[shots]

Beu
r1....4,5,6
r2....3,4,6
r3....2,4,6
r4....1,2,3
r9....1,2,6

[ryesteve]

PRM4 - 3,4,8- alt 2
PRM7 - 4,5,7 - alt 1
TUP8 - 1,3,4 - alt 9
WRD11 - 8,10,11 - alt 7
WRD12 - 4,5,10 - alt 6

alt race:
HAW3 - 3,4,6 - alt 1

if non-bolded horse is scratched, use alt horse
if bolded horse is scratched, use alt race

[HUSKER55]

I used to bet exactas but after ten races the problem was clear to me. My second picks suck. So I did the only logical thing. I took that money and bought more tickets on my first pick. Now I am doing better.

:)

[pktruckdriver]

Now I must reply to this.


As I was a very infrequent player at the races before, so when I went to the track , about 2-3 times a year, I would go looking for the biggest payout possible, where is that wrong, seriously????


Is it not players like I was, that helps the so-called professionals by putting in my money to build up your pools for you, is this not right?? Now am I not allowed to just box the longest shots on the board as a chance to get that big payout, of course I am. And it works at least once or twice a day, sometimes more, if you find the right race, you should know that too. Will one get rich or become a good h-capper this way, no of course not, but for the recreational player its what he wants, the big payoff, and why not. He won 't get it betting the Fav's we know that, right?? And he's still losing 65% of the time betting Fav's, correct? So what wrong with this, I don't see it.

Knowing now what I do, I don't bet like that anymore, but I do look at the payouts before making my bets to see if to me they are playable, and please explain why that too is wrong, I don't see it either, sorry.


Patrick


Please forgive me for doing this in the contest thread, I'm sorry, ok. But.....

[rcknhrse]

I did not due my usual update ysterday because of 2 near misses.
Rcknhrse............125........30............$ 984.40 is now
Rcknhrse............130........31............$ 994.80.
del 4
3-4-5

[ryesteve]

Now am I not allowed to just box the longest shots on the board as a chance to get that big payout, of course I am. And it works at least once or twice a day
1) no one said you aren't allowed to do it; it just doesn't make any sense
2) and boxing the longest prices on the board does NOT work "at least once or twice a day"

I ran some numbers on a recent dataset I have... this covers 7 months and more than 25,000 races. What I found is that if you box the 3 longest shots on the board, you'd have lost more than 58 cents on every dollar you bet. If you boxed the 2 longest prices, you'd have lost 70 cents on every dollar you bet. The hit rate on these 2 horse boxes was less than 4 per thousand. So no, it doesn't work a couple of times a day.

Is this really what the "recreational player" wants? I don't see the recreational aspect of flushing your money down the toilet. Like I said before, if it's a big payout you want, stop into the track's stationery store and buy some lottery tickets or scratch-off cards. The potential payout is bigger, and I'm guessing they don't take as much as 70 cents on each dollar. Then once you've gotten your "gotta make a score" jonesing out of the way, make some bets on the horses that at least give you a fighting chance.

[dartman51]

As this contest draws to a close, a few things:

1) I could've sworn Rookie was supposed to be gone just a couple of days... where the heck is he?

2) Who wants to run next month's?

3) I'm curious: has this contest changed the way any of you think towards 3 horse exacta boxes?

I personally don't play 3 horse boxes. When I play exactas, I find 1 horse to key on, then play him over 4 other contenders, in mor contentious races I may play key top and bottom with 3 others. But, that's just me. Courious to see what others do.:)

[rcknhrse]

HAW3
1-4-6

[rcknhrse]

I personally don't play 3 horse boxes. When I play exactas, I find 1 horse to key on, then play him over 4 other contenders, in mor contentious races I may play key top and bottom with 3 others. But, that's just me. Courious to see what others do.:)
This is the contest i wish we would have had.
I think i would have had more hits.
1 key horse ,with 3 others .over and under .same $12 .
sometimes i ey 2 horses ther by doubling up on 1 of the exactas.
I dont know if i have time to manage a contest.
i am in over my head as commish of multiple baseball fantasy leagues.
I think it would be easier to track if everyone posted their totals into a separate thread the following day.
The thread would be POST YOUR EX CONTEST TOTALS HERE.
YOUR POST WOULD BE 1 LINE .LIKE THIS
Rcknhrse............125........30............$ 984.40.
i WILL BE OUT OF WORK THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO KNEE SURGERY .
I COULD GIVE THIS A TRY.

[rcknhrse]

PHA 4
1-2-8

[HEY DUDE]

PHA R1 1-3-5
PHA R4 2-4-7

[rcknhrse]

PHA 4
1-2-8
#2 ALMOST STOLE IT
#8 BROKE 4TH 4 WIDE WAS BUMPED ON THE TURN AND LOST GROUND.
ACCELERATED DEEP BACKSTRETCH,GAINED ON THE TURN,CAUGHT THE 2 DEEP STRETCH .
8-2 PAYS 32.40

[rcknhrse]

This is the contest i wish we would have had.
I think i would have had more hits.
1 key horse ,with 3 others .over and under .same $12 .
sometimes i ey 2 horses ther by doubling up on 1 of the exactas.
I dont know if i have time to manage a contest.
i am in over my head as commish of multiple baseball fantasy leagues.
I think it would be easier to track if everyone posted their totals into a separate thread the following day.
The thread would be POST YOUR EX CONTEST TOTALS HERE.
YOUR POST WOULD BE 1 LINE .LIKE THIS
Rcknhrse............125........30............$ 984.40.
i WILL BE OUT OF WORK THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO KNEE SURGERY .
I COULD GIVE THIS A TRY.


THE TROUBLE WITH THIS IDEA IS THAT THE ORIGINAL POST WOULD NEED TO BE EDITED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME.BY EVERYONE.If there was a community database everyone could tap into then each player could enter their results into the data base and then the commish could then copy that into a results post

[HEY DUDE]

PHA R1 1-3-5
PHA R4 2-4-7


PHA R5 1-3-5

[rcknhrse]

I did not due my usual update ysterday because of 2 near misses.
Rcknhrse............125........30............$ 984.40 is now
Rcknhrse............130........31............$ 994.80.
del 4
3-4-5

#1 was a scratch
#4 went off 1/2
i wasgoing to delete the bet but i was not sure if that was within the rules.
i was betting against the 2 who was 2nd choice and hoping for the 3.
no luck
4-5 pays 7.40

[canleakid]

philly
7r. 1-5-7
9r. 4-7-6
beu:
6r. 7-4-1
haw:
6r. 2-5-4
1or. 5-7-8
IMHO, ALL CONTEST: YOU HAVE TO POST EARLY :eek: ONCE YOU HIT THE TRACK YOU ARE MORE ALERT, YOU PASS A RACE, SWITCH #'s, I MIGHT PLAY A 3 HORSE BOX TWICE AT ON A RACE CARD. Marty

[ryesteve]

[QUOTE=rcknhrsei wasgoing to delete the bet but i was not sure if that was within the rules.[/QUOTE]
Any decision made before the race goes off, is kosher. You can change horses, cancel the bet, whatever, as long you beat the bell.

[HTRFGuy]

I personally don't play 3 horse boxes. When I play exactas, I find 1 horse to key on, then play him over 4 other contenders, in mor contentious races I may play key top and bottom with 3 others. But, that's just me. Courious to see what others do.:)

Frankly, I prefer a four-horse triple box ($1) for the same $12. Far more profitable for me!

[HTRFGuy]

Hawthorne

R2 3-5-7 (Alt 4)
R4 3-5-7 (6)
R7 1-7-8 (2)
R9 2-3-6 (5)
R10 5-7-8 (2)

Alt Race R6 1-4-5 (7)

Scratches are up.... change to the following..

Hawthorne

R2 4-5-7 (8)
R7 1-7-8 (2)
R8 1-4-6 (7)
R9 3-5-6 (1)
R10 5-7-8 (2)

Alt Race R6 4-5-7

[HEY DUDE]

PHA R1 1-3-5
PHA R4 2-4-7
PHA R5 1-3-5
PHA R8 3-4-6

[rcknhrse]

HAW3
1-4-6
WINNER
4-1 PAYS 33.00
4 WIRES FIELS AFTER GETTING PRESSURE FROM #2 ON THE INSIDE AND #7 ON HIS OUTSIDE.
#1A RALLIES FROM NOWHERE .STILL LAST AT THE 1/8POLE AND GETS UP FOR 2ND

[ljb]

Well I'm done for the day.
Philly
R1
#2,3,6 alt 1
SCRATCHED: CHEEKY JONES
$2 EXACTA 3-1 PAID $18.60

R5
#4,6,7 alt 5
$2 EXACTA 6-7 PAID $54.40

R7
#1,2,7 alt 6
OUT

R8
2,4,5 alt 6
OUT

R9
#4,5,7 alt 6
SCRATCHED: TOCOOLFORSCHOOL
$2 EXACTA 4-6 PAID $53.80
3 for 5
$126.80 :jump:

[rcknhrse]

I JUST UPLOADED 5 FREE MNR RACES I FOUND ON hrn
to this site
must join to get acess
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/PUPPETPOETPIRATEPAUPERPAWN/

[shots]

Beu
r1....4,5,6
r2....3,4,6
r3....2,4,6
r4....1,2,3
r9....1,2,6.......$16.20
1 winner for $16.20 new total = $918

[rcknhrse]

I WAS GOING TO PLAY TUP 6
1-2-5 BUT I ONLY HAVE 2 PLAYS LEFT .ILL PASS

[rcknhrse]

I WAS GOING TO PLAY TUP 6
1-2-5 BUT I ONLY HAVE 2 PLAYS LEFT .ILL PASS
9-5-4
#9 DID NOT HAVE ANYTHING THAT STOOD OUT.
BUT WHEN I CHECKED THE PP'S AGAIN
BRIS HAD 5-2-9
I REALLY DONT LIKE HOW THEY ARRIVE AT THEIR SELECTIONS BECAUSE THEY AVG EVERYTHING.
BUT ON MANY OCCASIONS WHEN I AM NOT SURE ABOUT A RACE I LOOK AFTERWARDS AND BRIS HAS IT IN THEIR TOP 3

[ryesteve]

With one exception, ljb who has played 50 races, NO ONE is making any money
on this wager.Woo hoo!
Thanks to:
WRD12 - 4,5,10 - alt 6
and the $118.20 it returned, I'm now profitable for at least the next 3 minutes (pending the 8th at TuP) :jump:

[ryesteve]

... and now I'm back in the red :D

[dartman51]

IND R-7 6-2-3

[rcknhrse]

wanted to bet pm 8
but cant get it down to 3 horses
3,10 with 5-8-or9
5 was top 2 ep
should have been the key
5-9-1
ex 208

[canleakid]

philly
7r. 1-5-7///// :mad: UT
9r. 4-7-6/////$53.80
beu:
6r. 7-4-1//////$7.20 :blush:
haw:
6r. 2-5-4///// :mad: UT
1or. 5-7-8///// :mad: UT
IMHO, ALL CONTEST: YOU HAVE TO POST EARLY :eek: ONCE YOU HIT THE TRACK YOU ARE MORE ALERT, YOU PASS A RACE, SWITCH #'s, I MIGHT PLAY A 3 HORSE BOX TWICE AT ON A RACE CARD. Marty
TOTAL TODAY $61.00

[dartman51]

IND R-7 6-2-3

IND R-8 3-1-6 (2)
IND R-9 1-3-5 (2)
MNR R-3 4-2-8 (1)
MNR R-9 7-4-1 (2)

[dartman51]

wanted to bet pm 8
but cant get it down to 3 horses
3,10 with 5-8-or9
5 was top 2 ep
should have been the key
5-9-1
ex 208

The 5 horse looks good in the 9th also at good odds
BEAU NONI
Weight down from 123 to 120
Step down from C (25000) to C (12500)
Jockey change: MONTALVO CARLOS to LAVIOLETTE SHANE
Trainer change: ASHAUER NORMAN to FAVRE JEFF

Got up for 2nd @ 23-1

[HTRFGuy]

Scratches are up.... change to the following..

Hawthorne

R2 4-5-7 (8)//$8.60
R7 1-7-8 (2)//$32.20
R8 1-4-6 (7)
R9 3-5-6 (1)
R10 5-7-8 (2)

Alt Race R6 4-5-7

Today's total $40.80

New totals..
Races 120
Wins 34
$ 1,279.00

[HEY DUDE]

PHA R1 1-3-5
PHA R4 2-4-7
PHA R5 1-3-5
PHA R8 3-4-6
MNR R5 3-4-6

[rcknhrse]

mnr6
3-6-8

[rcknhrse]

mnr6
3-6-8
winner
6-3
pays 39.20

[sally]

I was thinking that tri boxes might be a good way to go, but seeing how I've been doing with ex. boxes has given me pause...:D so this contest has been an eye opener for me--


Beulah
R4 1-4-7 alt. 2
R6 2-6-7 alt. 1
R7 1-5-6 alt. 2
R8 1-4-6 alt. 5
R9 1-2-3 alt. 6

R4 1-4 paid 9.20
R7 5-1 paid 16.00
= 25.20

[rcknhrse]

mnr 9
1-2-4

[rcknhrse]

mnr 9
1-2-4
change mnr 9 to
1-2-6

[rcknhrse]

change mnr 9 to
1-2-6
First instincts are always best.
I had a feelin about the 4 and he almost got there.
Both the tv hosts liked the 8 2nd but to the 1
I focused too much in that race on early speed and mud #'s
The 3 best speed figures last 2 races
2-7-8
so i cant pull off a 5/5 day.

[rcknhrse]

4/5 today total=112


Rcknhrse............135........35............$ 1106.80

[dartman51]

IND R-7 6-2-3 6-3 pd $34.60
IND R-8 3-1-6 (2) 3-1 pd $13.60
IND R-9 1-3-5 (2) 3-1 pd $13.20
MNR R-3 4-2-8 (1) 2-4 pd $18.20
MNR R-9 7-4-1 (2) NO

4 for 5, my best day yet but not a lot of dollars. Total for the day $79.60