Mountain Play 4/27/08

[Valupix]

Mountaineer Race 2

Win: #1 Butabinbutaboom

[Bill Olmsted]

Mountaineer Race 2

Win: #1 Butabinbutaboom


Interesting. But I don't see the logic. Maybe the pos jockey switch is the tip off?

[Boris]

i got 2 over 4/6 exactiod

[Valupix]

Interesting. But I don't see the logic. Maybe the pos jockey switch is the tip off?
The main logic is value: a horse not so much different from the rest of this field at what should be a price well above the risk one will be taking with the fact this is not the most likely winner. But he does have a chance and the price is most likely going to more than exceed what that chance is. In my opinion anyway.

On top of that here is a horse that is going to get his first fast track in about 6 months. One's who several catalyst factors that an could spark improvement; makes his third start against winners, he stretches out, has some speed, gets the rail and catches a modest pace.

Plus the trainer gets things done. Positive overall ROI. A huge positive ROI sprint-to-route. Positive ROI with longshots in general, positive ROI coming off a bad race, positive ROI at the Mountain...And a positive ROI with the jockey, who himself is holding an overall positive ROI.

All together I get a horse with reasonable pluses at what should be a price more than worthy of accepting the risk.

[Valupix]

But if you were pointing out that my choice is very likely to lose...yes I know, far more likely to lose than win.

But in a the game of trying to find profitable opportunities, I feel comfortable with my low percentage play.

I pick alot of losers.

[ljb]

Im leaning toward a place show play on this horse #2 will get right back
oops checked wrong odds go wp
still wrong back to ps

[Bill Olmsted]

#5 looks best.

[ljb]

4 horse

[Bill Olmsted]

No cigar

[Valupix]

A 15/1 shot all but dismissed completely by the betting public who was right there in the final jumps of the race.

I didn't fall my way this time.

That scenario will fall my way enough times to accomplish my extended goal. It would only take ONE out 15 similar 15/1 shots to reach success.

Far less risky in my opinion than chasing 3/1 shots were you can only be wrong twice before you have to catch a winner.

[Boris]

Can't resist trying for third when I have a stand up double.

Exacta box the 1,5,8 then key the 1 top and bottom to those characters.

Good luck

[Valupix]

Race 5

Win: 5

Ex/Bx: 5,6,8

[ljb]

R6
1 w
1,3,4 ebox

[ljb]

R7
4 wp
249 ebox

[098poi]

R7 mnr
w 9
ex 9 / 2,4

[ljb]

video says 4 does not carry a whip, damn :D

[lamboguy]

never heard of the rider either

[ljb]

first start for the lady damn again. :sleeping:

[098poi]

R8
w/p 5

ex 1,5 / 1,4,5

[098poi]

R8
w/p 5

ex 1,5 / 1,4,5

Result
2
6
4

Wow, way off base on that one!

[098poi]

r9
ex
3,7 / 2,3,7

[098poi]

Last
ex
1,9,5 / 1,2,5,9