I am 95% sure of my Derby Pick now

[ny0707ny]

I wasn't going to post it until Wednesday since the post positions can change it. The odds of him getting post 20 though are 1 in 20, so I think I can take a chance here.

Since I was most worried about his ability to handle the dirt since he has never run on it, today I think I can put that worry away. :jump:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44865

[46zilzal]

Of all the preps, his was the most VISIBLY impressive. I'll have to wait on the numbers as compared to the other entrants before going any further than that, but this one looked like a strong Derby contender in his last start.

[ny0707ny]

Compared to last year when I picked Hard Spun and nobody liked him, I have a feeling Colonel John is going to have a lot of fans.

I think whoever can pick the Derby winner this year deserves credit. I have not seen a harder field to pick a horse since 2002 when I started following it.

[46zilzal]

I think whoever can pick the Derby winner this year deserves credit. I have not seen a harder field to pick a horse since 2002 when I started following it.
With as much "uneducated" money that this race draws all it takes is understanding the three or four that might be there at the end and box them.

[LemonSoupKid]

zilzal, I totally agree. I'll play to win a bit, but I'm going for the exacta, tri and super to attempt at a big hit with some stupid money going around.

Do you have any ways you like to play it? I hit the pick 3 Derby Day last year, I've hit every bet now in my life (pick 4, too) except the pick 6 and the superfecta (3rd and 4th swapped last year's belmont) ... I've come close many times.

What are you going to play?

Lemon

[The WindfallAngler]

Heheh. This bullet work (best of 62, 4/27/08) 5 Furlongs in :57.80 ON DIRT, does appear to have won COLONEL JOHN a few stray admirers, so late in the Trlple Crown runup. :(

It "isn't news" to those of us who've been, all along, betting The Colonel with both fists ...against the grain of "expert" opinion.

_____

"Trust Us, We're Experts!"--Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber

[russowen77]

Another plus side is that horses coming from the cushion track did really well at OP and that surface is very similar to CD.

The colt should really like CDs.

BTW, horses that run well on Poly rarely do well at OP.

[Bruddah]

Heheh. This bullet work (best of 62, 4/27/08) 5 Furlongs in :57.80 ON DIRT, does appear to have won COLONEL JOHN a few stray admirers, so late in the Trlple Crown runup. :(

It "isn't news" to those of us who've been, all along, betting The Colonel with both fists ...against the grain of "expert" opinion.
_____

"Trust Us, We're Experts!"--Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber


Give the kid a break! It's my understanding a winning ticket pays the same, even if bought at the last second. And, the winner of the Ky Derby is not known until the Stewards declare the race official. :)

[lamboguy]

just curious, when pyro works tomorrow morning in a minute and one, does that make your california horse a winner because he will have worked almost 4 seconds faster?

[Golf and Horses]

just curious, when pyro works tomorrow morning in a minute and one, does that make your california horse a winner because he will have worked almost 4 seconds faster?

Well, no, it doesn't make him the winner, but it shows that he has an affinity for the dirt track which was an unknown prior to the work. Many were waiting to see how he handled it. Looks like he handled it just fine. :cool:

[The WindfallAngler]

just curious, when pyro works tomorrow morning in a minute and one, does that make your california horse a winner because he will have worked almost 4 seconds faster?

Do I detect a sense of irony?

Final works are not all that meaningful, be they bullet- or 1:03 and change -- not Colonel John's, not Pyro's, nor Big Brown's -- except in a comprehensive and thoroughgoing review of a colt's other (public) workouts, his form cycle, stakes placings, etc.

Hence, my puzzlement, that a quick clocking, in and of itself, might form the basis for deciding one's Derby Pick.

(There may be Insufficient Sample, even, for sophisticated pace- & final time-figures. ...This is perhaps truer in recent derbies than ever before.)

Be realistic! These are improving horses!

First place finishes in Grade 1 Stakes races, however, generally are effective, if not infallible indicators, of Kentucky champions before the fact.

By this simple expedient, derby contenders may be reduced to a field of manageable proportions. ...And, but for Big Brown, Tale of Ekati, and War Pass (now sidelined), Grade One winners in this field are scarcer than hen's teeth.

[jjm323]

Heheh. This bullet work (best of 62, 4/27/08) 5 Furlongs in :57.80 ON DIRT, does appear to have won COLONEL JOHN a few stray admirers, so late in the Trlple Crown runup. :(

It "isn't news" to those of us who've been, all along, betting The Colonel with both fists ...against the grain of "expert" opinion.

_____

"Trust Us, We're Experts!"--Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber


You aren't really going out on a limb there. He is likely to be the second choice on the ML and he was only 6-1 in Pool 3.

[The WindfallAngler]

My remarks had to do with the Colonel's amazingly generous $7.20 and $5.00 mutuels. Served up, after his Santa Anita Derby & Sham Stakes victories...

You aren't really going out on a limb there. He is likely to be the second choice on the ML and he was only 6-1 in Pool 3.

Naturally not, although I'm delighted with the Pool 2 value I'm getting, at 17-1.

[rastajenk]

BTW, horses that run well on Poly rarely do well at OP.

That can't be a very large sample, seems to me, given the dates they always have.

[Tex9Down]

I have to agree with NY07, I like Colonel John too. It's hard for me to get away from Pyro, but I was so disappointed in his last race. 46Z has good advice. I'm so new at real betting, I'm going to try his advice. I don't make big bets but my wife and I enjoy watching the races so much. If we can hit anything, we'll be thrilled. My wife worked for Larry Jones a few years ago so we are also going to root for his fillies in the Oaks and or Derby.

[Semipro]

With as much "uneducated" money that this race draws all it takes is understanding the three or four that might be there at the end and box them.Care to go out on a limb and predict who the three or four might be you always seem to have that condescending attitude but do you ever predict your actual contenders.