Derby myths

[DJofSD]

It seems that since the turn of the century, there's been any number of "truths" about Derby contenders that have been shattered. Such as a gelding can't win, the BC Juvy hex, Barbaro's 5 weeks w/o a race, etc.

What are some of the long held myths about the contenders for the Derby that still remain?

[cj]

Street Sense beat the "three prep" myth and the BC Juvenile one as well. He wasn't the first one to do it on two preps but it was a myth anyway. A horse must race as a 2yo is another. The dosage at 4.0 has been blown away recently, but it was one. Isn't there another about Raise a Native being in the breeding somewhere?

[russowen77]

No Nashrulla in the line as another, therby eliminating almost 24% of the horses.

One thing to keep in mind though. Throughbreds are being bred very differntly now. The game has changed in that area in just the last 20 yearss.

Two of the four lines are gone and another one is about out the door as well. So many folks feel the need for speed right now.

[Bignick63]

I address the new way horses are being trained and bred in my publication Angling to Win. It's not the same game anymore and handicappers and trainers need to make adjustments and let go of some of the old ways of doing things.

-Nick
www.nickborg.com

[DJofSD]

Any long held believes about work outs such as a work over the CD surface or blow outs?

[classhandicapper]

I think no elimination angle is ever going to be 100%.

IMO, what you want to do is ask yourself if the angle could be useful based on common sense. Then you want evaluate all the horses that fit the angle to see if they tended to underperform expectations in an otherwise unexplainable way or whether the pool of horses just sucked. If there's a large enough sample and it seems to make sense, I see no reason not to consider it as a negative in the horse's PPs just because a single horse or two out of a large sample was able to win.

[Bruddah]

Street Sense beat the "three prep" myth and the BC Juvenile one as well. He wasn't the first one to do it on two preps but it was a myth anyway. A horse must race as a 2yo is another. The dosage at 4.0 has been blown away recently, but it was one. Isn't there another about Raise a Native being in the breeding somewhere?


These aren't myths but wise percentage angles. This is more than my Humble Opinion, because these angles are backed up with years of History and Facts. No angle or process of elimination (handicapping) is perfect. However, when these plays are 80-100% spot on...Beware! :ThmbUp:

[MNslappy]

These aren't myths but wise percentage angles.
Along those lines...
1 winner since 1956 had DSLR over 28 days.
46 of the last 51 winners had a stakes win as either a 2 or 3 year old
43 of the last 46 winners finished ITM in their final prep.

These sure seem like pretty solid angles for eliminating contenders for the top spot to me...

[Oddzilla]

Doesn't Big Brown's lack of experience play up to one of these myths?

[DJofSD]

Doesn't Big Brown's lack of experience play up to one of these myths?

Which one are you thinking applies?

The only one I'm aware of is needing to have raced as a two year old. Brown Bag did race as a two year old.

[Bruddah]

than being the BEST and FASTEST horse in the race. I bet the best horse in the Derby last year and he ran 3rd. As he proved later and this year, Curlin should have won the Derby, but didn't. Gentleman, it's called luck and horse racing. That's why the run them. :ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

than being the BEST and FASTEST horse in the race. I bet the best horse in the Derby last year and he ran 3rd. As he proved later and this year, Curlin should have won the Derby, but didn't. Gentleman, it's called luck and horse racing. That's why the run them. :ThmbUp:

As you note, often the Derby will not go to the horse that figures to win based on quality of past performance, but the one with a training regimen that has progressively prepared it to reach a new peak of form in the Derby itself, even if its pre-Derby efforts are not among the best in the field.

[Gibbon]

It might be time to revive the dosage index.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm

BB sure does have some kind of pedigree!
Too bad his best race is erstwhile.











__________________________________
If Jack Nicklaus can win the Masters at 46, I can win the Kentucky Derby at 54. ~ Willie Shoemaker

[cj]

These aren't myths but wise percentage angles. This is more than my Humble Opinion, because these angles are backed up with years of History and Facts. No angle or process of elimination (handicapping) is perfect. However, when these plays are 80-100% spot on...Beware! :ThmbUp:

I agree to a point, but the game changes and sometimes things that happened last week don't apply, let alone things that happened decades ago.

[ny0707ny]

It seems that since the turn of the century, there's been any number of "truths" about Derby contenders that have been shattered. Such as a gelding can't win, the BC Juvy hex, Barbaro's 5 weeks w/o a race, etc.

What are some of the long held myths about the contenders for the Derby that still remain?

I think after 90 years winning off just 3 starts will still stand. Experience can't be bought. A horse has to race enough to know what he is doing when he is around 19 other horses on the track. We just saw this last year with Curlin. He won his last race by almost 11 lengths and earned a 103 figure. He never really faced anyone good though. He came in 3rd in the Derby but lost by 8 lengths. He had no pace to deal with either since he runs far back.

BB will have the pace and little experience making it even tougher than what Curlin had to deal with. If he still wins this race he deserves the Crown.

[russowen77]

BB was sure bred for the distance but he I can't believe he can run as rank as last time out and still win the Derby. Probably why so few horses with little experience win the thing.