Betting to lose -- Betfair et al

[andicap]

Does anyone here have any experience in "laying" on the betting exchanges? I've been thinking about toying with this concept and wondering what people's feelings are, what strategies they might use -- or if they were reluctant to share, could point me to some good resources on the subject, either online or in print.

Thanks

[Cangamble]

Does anyone here have any experience in "laying" on the betting exchanges? I've been thinking about toying with this concept and wondering what people's feelings are, what strategies they might use -- or if they were reluctant to share, could point me to some good resources on the subject, either online or in print.

Thanks
I have, but to date I've been unsuccessful at it. Though you get a much bigger bang from your buck as opposed to non rebate horse race betting.

I would definitely wait for the market to tighten up before making a bet. As far as booking, try to focus on horses you really don't like as opposed to horses that are lower odds (lower risk for you). You'll almost always have to pay a premium if you lay odds, but you will get a premium most of the time you back a horse.

[Stevecsd]

I did try it some years ago with my eHorse account. If this is the same thing, you act as the banker. So you are covering the bets of the people wagering to win. The problem is that when the horse you pick loses, you only get your bet x 2 back. But if the horse comes in & wins, you have to pay the track odds to the winner. So if it comes in at 4-1 you have to pay out about $10. There is also a psychological thing with this. It is like shorting a stock, you are trying to pick a loser. It is reverse of what you would normally do in handicapping.

Steven Currie

[46zilzal]

Does anyone here have any experience in "laying" on the betting exchanges? I've been thinking about toying with this concept and wondering what people's feelings are, what strategies they might use -- or if they were reluctant to share, could point me to some good resources on the subject, either online or in print.

Thanks
I have a good friend in England ( an on track bookie) who says ONCE you understand how it works, it is a great way to bet. I have signed up for BetFair and will be making my first wagers over the next few weeks.

[DeanT]

Hey Andi,

The betting to lose end is pretty interesting, imo. The bankroll is the key, and working out your risk and bet size. You can be somewhat aggressive because your hit rate betting to lose is high, but when you get bit, it bites hard.

One strategy I believe in is this: If you really like two horses and either is not the fave you have a couple choices, bet both horses you like to win, or bet the chalk to lose. In this instance I believe doing the latter is a good strategy - you have a strong opinion on the race, dont like the chalk and instead of working two markets long, you go short.

Also, with so many races you can be patient. Sitting well below market to lay is not a bad option. At times you get hit at a very fair price. There is always another race coming up, so no need to chase when you lay.

JMO. Good luck!

[robert99]

There are many sites and dubious quality downloads.

You could read some starting articles here:
http://www.bfportal.com/

Laying to a near 100% book is not advisable unless you can generate odds-lines more accurate than most and be at the computer full time to get the fleeting best prices. You also need to know the momentum of the way the money is going and why. Of the 96% of losers, even on a 100% book, they lose because of one or two stupid "buying money" lay bets they thought simply could not win.

A better strategy for most is no "lose" betting.
You bet to win but your win stake is covered by your carefully chosen lay bets in same race.
One of those lay bets is going to win (for someone else) eventually, so do not be tempted to lay long odds horses - on Betfair they are at very long odds.

WBX or Betdaq may be better for you for horse racing as you will not be betting against computers (bots).

[Cangamble]

This guy is slow but if you are interested in how Betfair actually works, watch it:
jZszMYjdlRE
Note: You can bet in either American, Canadian, or English currency

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone here have any experience in "laying" on the betting exchanges? I've been thinking about toying with this concept and wondering what people's feelings are, what strategies they might use -- or if they were reluctant to share, could point me to some good resources on the subject, either online or in print.

Thanks

I've been doing it with some success ever since Ehorse-ExChange opened.

Typically, when I hate a short priced horse I either bet another one to win or spread out in exactas depending on the strength of my opinion about the other horses and the odds/value.

Sometimes though, the prices at the exchange are different than at the track or I have no idea what's going on in the race other than hating a specific horse. When that happens, I look to book a bet at the exchange.

In the beginning, the spreads between "FOR" and "AGAINST" were narrower than they are now and there were way more fish willing to take unattractive odds. That's not the case now. The spreads have gotten larger and the real fish must have all gone broke.

In the beginning you could also occasionally book bets on horrible longhots that IMO had virtually no chance at all. I used to book small bets like that here or there and expose myself to maximum of a $200-$500 loss (usually less). Not a single one of those horses won over the course of about the first year. One horse finished second in a photo that would have cost me $700. He got a perfect trip and about 4 good horses didn't fire. That was close. ;) Then all those opportunities dried up. There's simply no "AGAINST" money available on some horses now.

I can't comment about Betfair, because other than glancing at it at times, I can't play there (US resident). However, the opportunities at EhorseX are drying up compared to the first few months. You can sometimes still get much more attractive prices there than at the track even after the exchange fee. But on the booking bets end, you usually have to give enough of a premium over the track price to put yourself into marginal territory after you pay the exchange fee.

I had 1 strategy that I did extremely well with that is also drying up a bit but still available from time to time. Contact me privately and we can discuss it.

[highnote]

Does anyone here have any experience in "laying" on the betting exchanges? I've been thinking about toying with this concept and wondering what people's feelings are, what strategies they might use -- or if they were reluctant to share, could point me to some good resources on the subject, either online or in print.

Thanks

Before my Betfair account was closed I used to back and lay the same horse to lock in a guaranteed profit. I use the phrase "Back high, lay low" to remember how to lock in the profit.

If you back a horse at 3-1 and can lay it for 2-1 and you bet in the proper proportion you can lock in a profit no matter if the horse wins or loses.

You need to be nimble nowadays because there are a lot of bots. However you can still do this pretty easily with futures bets. For example, you can bet a horse you like in the Derby. Then if it does well in a prep race it's odds should drop. Then you lay it back and lock in a profit no matter what the outcome.

You could also do cross exchange hedging. Back a horse on one exchange and then lay it on a different exchange at a lower price.

You need pretty big accounts to make it worth your while. If you're only going to lock in a $1 profit on a small back and lay bet then what's the point? However, if you can lock in $100 then it starts to get interesting.

There are many variations on these themes, e.g. lay low on an exchange and then go long pari-mutuelly at a higher price.

[classhandicapper]

Before my Betfair account was closed I used to back and lay the same horse to lock in a guaranteed profit. I use the phrase "Back high, lay low" to remember how to lock in the profit.

If you back a horse at 3-1 and can lay it for 2-1 and you bet in the proper proportion you can lock in a profit no matter if the horse wins or loses.

You need to be nimble nowadays because there are a lot of bots. However you can still do this pretty easily with futures bets. For example, you can bet a horse you like in the Derby. Then if it does well in a prep race it's odds should drop. Then you lay it back and lock in a profit no matter what the outcome.

You could also do cross exchange hedging. Back a horse on one exchange and then lay it on a different exchange at a lower price.

You need pretty big accounts to make it worth your while. If you're only going to lock in a $1 profit on a small back and lay bet then what's the point? However, if you can lock in $100 then it starts to get interesting.

There are many variations on these themes, e.g. lay low on an exchange and then go long pari-mutuelly at a higher price.

Andy,

There is no reason for you to contact me privately. This pretty much explains my other strategies.


Swetyejohn,

I hadn't considered that some people were using bots, but that makes perfect sense. I should have realized that because I use all kinds of software to interact with poker site software to give me an advantage. Unfortunately, I can't develop that kind of thing on my own. It's still possible to get off trades at multiple sites manually, but you do have to be quick. It was like stealing a little over a year ago because I had no competition at E-HorseX and the place was crawling with fish. It really helps if you can predict the odds a horse is likely to go off at. Then when you notice an error, you can lock it in before the odds move and then catch the other side later.

[Charlie D]

Lay those that your oddsline tells you are underlays, just like your oddsline tells you when a horse s an overlay

Say on my oddsline i have chalk at 3-1 2nd fav and he's 5-4 fav on the Exchange market - he gets laid. If other layers on the exchange think the same as me and drifts out to my back price of 3-1, i then bet him back for an "ALL GREEN" and move on to the next race.



Best thing to do if you've never done it before, is to have a maximum price at which you willing to lay selections, say no higher than 4-1 (5.0 on Exchanges) and start off your lays at the minimum stakes allowed on the exchange.

Over time you should become more confident if you are any good at making oddslines, then as confidence grows you can increase stakes slightly as you bankroll grows.

This way, you will not be looking for another bankroll in a couple of days if things don't go you way at the beginning, you make a mistake or miss a major scratch

[BMeadow]

By far the largest percentage of my action since 2003 has been on the exchanges--Betfair and Ibetx (before they kicked out the Americans), and Ehorsex. A few observations:

You'd better know what you're doing. If you choose to lay (play against) horses, be aware that most of the time you're going to have to offer better odds than what the track is offering. That 6-5 favorite you hate may not be all that terrible to someone if you offer 2-1. And maybe at that price he isn't that terrible, either.

So you need to have a very strong idea of what the price for each horse SHOULD be, and act accordingly. For instance, you feel the horse is fair at 4-1, the track's odds are 9-5, and the exchange price is 5-2. Lay the horse--but you'd better be right a lot.

If you believe that you can make a fortune by simply betting against a horse who is being offered at, or even below, the odds at the track, you may be deluding yourself. The idea is good--horses at nearly all odds ranges lose somewhere around the track take, so you may think you have a big fat 15-20% advantage if you book horses on the exchange at 6-1 who are also going off at the track at 6-1. You would be absolutely amazed to learn that if there are (for instance) three 3-1 shots in a race as the horses enter the gate and the prices to lay them on the exchange are 2-1, 5-1, and 6-1, the "overbet" 2-1 shot will far outperform the others. Often, in fact, the horse gets pounded at the track (after the race goes off) down to 2-1 or maybe even 8-5. Even if he doesn't get bet at the track, he STILL performs like a 2-1 shot, not a 3-1 shot. So there are traps, sharp players, and sharp computer programs you are going to have to beat.

Because of a relative lack of action, there is often a wide spread on ehorsex (far greater spreads than at Betfair) between offered odds and the odds to lay. A horse at the track might be 7-5 to win, but only 6-5 to back on the exchange and 2-1 if you want to bet against him. Another thing: Ehorsex seeds its pools using its own computer program, so a large percentage of the time I'm playing mostly against its computer program, not against other players. When a software glitch or other problem (e.g., the computer usually only seeds the first six races on Friday nights at Bay Meadows) prevents the seeded money from appearing, there sometimes is not a single dollar bet anywhere in the world on this exchange. More than once, the only numbers on the screen have been the ones I put up myself.

If you want to bet on a horse, you can often get better odds on the exchange--but not always, and not always for the amount you would like to bet. Let's say the odds I need to bet a horse are 6-1 and he's 7-1 at the track and 11-1 on the exchange. I'll bet all that's available on the exchange at 11-1, but that might be only $115 and I might want to bet $600, so the rest I have to bet into the track pool.

You can occasionally arbitrage the numbers if you can predict which way the betting will go, but usually not, and in any case usually not for major money.

The exchanges are great if you have a well-defined sense of what odds each horse should be. They are also great if you like backing horses (rather than laying them) and have the patience to play only when you are getting good value.

However, a good rule to follow is this: When something looks too easy, it usually isn't. And probably, there's somebody smarter than you (and me) doing this...

[andicap]

Excellent replies -- thank you all for your insights. I can plainly see you have to tread very carefully before wading into this pool.

[ryesteve]

That was a great post, Barry, particularly about the "traps". It reminds me of the experience I had betting matchups, before Pinnacle closed its doors to americans. As you said, any time something looked too good to be true, it was. It got so bad, I started looking at the matchup line as the representative of the "efficient" pool, and using it to identify overlays and dead fish in the mutuel pool.

Even though there were profitable ways to bet those matchups and use the betting info, I certainly didn't enjoy the way it made the handicapping process far less than transparent than it already is. In an ideal world, you want to believe that you can just use PPs, do your research, do your handicapping, and develop a generally clear picture of how a race will turn out; but working with matchups made it very clear that there is a subset of races out there (and apparently a known subset, given the skill of the Pinnacle linemaker) in which the performance of some horses is completely beyond what any handicapper can deduce via conventional handicapping... unless of course you want to consider "watching the money" to be "conventional handicapping". Profitable or not, I didn't enjoy having bet decisions determined by the betting patterns of other people.

Knowing that the exchanges can offer a similar experience, I've got to be honest and say I'm not sorry at all that I'm missing out.

[classhandicapper]

>>>>You would be absolutely amazed to learn that if there are (for instance) three 3-1 shots in a race as the horses enter the gate and the prices to lay them on the exchange are 2-1, 5-1, and 6-1, the "overbet" 2-1 shot will far outperform the others. Often, in fact, the horse gets pounded at the track (after the race goes off) down to 2-1 or maybe even 8-5. Even if he doesn't get bet at the track, he STILL performs like a 2-1 shot, not a 3-1 shot. So there are traps, sharp players, and sharp computer programs you are going to have to beat. <<<<<

Barry,

It has been obvious to me for a long time that the exchange odds are more efficient than the track odds more often than the other way around.

When I totally hate a horse, he's usually a much longer price on the exchange making it impossibe to book a bet.

When I love a horse, the premium over the track price is often narrower than it should be making it less lucrative to bet there after exchange fees and the potential to bet the horse elsewhere and get a rebate.

As far as odds dropping late at the track. IMO, there are two thing goings on.

I believe the seed money is at least partially based on track prices, but they might use the exotic pools instead of the early win pool to do the calculations because the exotic pools are larger.

I haven't studied it carefully, but very often the exacta pool will be out of sync with the win pool at the track until very late in the betting. Then a lot of late money comes into the win pool and brings them back into sync. So if you see something out of line at the exchange relative to the win pool at the track, it may be telling you that the track win pool is also out of line with the exacta poolsand will be corrected late. (I hope I explained that well enough to make sense)

The other thing causes those late drops in price at the track is people like me.

Let's say I can book a bet at the exchange at 5-1 and the horse is 10-1 at the track. In the last minute I book $125 (or something like that) on the exchange and then immediately bet $100 at the track on the same horse to lock in a profit. If enough people are doing that, it will cause the track price to move down late because it's all coming in on the same horse. When an arbitrage opportunity presents itself, the money gets taken quickly so I know a lot of people are doing that besides me.

In reality the spreads are almost never that large anymore and the opportunities are few and far between because more people caught on.

But in the first few weeks the spreads were enormous. It was like taking candy away from a baby for at least the first 2 months at ehorsex. I believe I was literally the only person on the exchange that was doing that, the seed money wasn't nearly as sharp (they must have improved their process for calculating the seed odds), and there were loads of other fish. The only thing that prevented me from making a major score was that the exchange opened around the same time as the Neteller issues and I already had thousands of dollars tied up there and at poker sites. I didn't want to expose myself to too much more at various racing sites.

[Robert Fischer]

i used to "green up" on the obvious long shots. If possible lay early at a low price and then back at the correct amount later when the price continued to rise. Once executed, a profit was guaranteed.
After a while I could pick the right horses to do this with, as well as now how to buy a small loss or hold the lay ticket if the market didn't inflate as expected.

other than greening up, I used the same weak fan-favorites that I follow on my vulture list.

[Lefty]

Just been reading about Betfair recently and was starting to envy those that could bet there. After reading this thread i'm having 2nd thghts about that.

[Lefty]

I was just at the e-horse site and don't see the bet exchange listed any longer.

[BMeadow]

This would be a typical (though in this case, extremely lucky) bet I would make on an exchange. This is from my own account today in the third race at Hollywood Park. I played $816 to win ON Bel Air Sizzle at 5-1 (odds are 6.01 meaning 5.01 to 1), who was 5-2 at the track and who was put up on a dq. I laid $244 against the winner Gamblers Justice at 13-1, who won at 8-1 and was dq'd, and $1632 against Final Fling, 3-5 on the exchange and 3-5 at the track.

Type Selection Avg. Odds Amount Result
For 7 BEL AIR SIZZLE 6.01 $816 $4085.20
Against 1 GAMBLERS JUSTICE 14.04 $244.37 $244.37
Against 2 FINAL FLING 1.61 $1632 $1632

You can always bet as little as you like, but how much you can bet on a horse depends on how much is being laid against him, and how much you can bet against a horse depends on how much is being bet on him.

You can't always do what you want at the track, and the exchange is an option. I needed 7-2 to bet to win on my best bet today, Bestdressed, but he was only 5-2 at the track. However, he was a pleasant 5-1 on the exchange, where I got down for $597.

In the Lava Man race, I liked only two horses (Celtic Dreaming and Mr. Wolverine), and wanted to bet big against Lava Man, who I thought would be 1-1 or so. However, he didn't get much action on the exchange and I would have had to lay 5-2, so I passed. I wound up betting Mr. Wolverine on the exchange and Celtic Dreaming in the track pool.

Of course, often I'm wrong about a race, and I have many losing days (even though I'm always thinking I'm making a good bet). The exchange is simply one more option--and you can only bet (or book) to win, so all your other action such as exactas or pick 4's will be through the track pools unless you're using offshore racebooks.

[Lefty]

Barry, I don't see the e-horse exchange listed anymore just the regular horse bet part. Where did you make this bet?

[BMeadow]

"I don't see the e-horse exchange listed anymore just the regular horse bet part. Where did you make this bet?"

Either go to (a) betehorse.com and see "Betting Exchange" near the top of the page and click on that or (b) ehorsex.com.

[Lefty]

Thanks, Barry. I see it now. I must be going blind in me old age.
Say, I see lots of ads on internet about books and systems for laying against horses on betfair. I assume they would be applicable to e-horse. Has anyoneread any they could recommend?

[MarkH45]

I have been using ehorsex.com for the past couple months. Their customer service is great. Deposits and withdrawls are easy via moneygram. If you bet on horses there is no better place the odds are much higher. I bet Big Brown at 5-1

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