I have one horse that I now like for Derby

[ny0707ny]

It is not Big Brown or Pyro. WP was my pick before so it was hard to find another horse. It will now depend on the workouts and post positions if I pick him or not. :jump:

[jtat]

Do you always handicap races based on workouts? I think it's wise to look if a horse had a bad workout. But there will a half dozen horses that will run a sensational workout according to the press. If you can pick the winner of the race based on how the few horses who workout over Churchill's pre Derby track, my hats off to you.

[ny0707ny]

No, this is just for the Derby. The importance of workouts for other races depends on the type of race and other factors.

The workouts are just part of picking the Derby horse. I use several factors.
A sharp workout before the Derby though is important. You can go back to 2002 and none of the Derby winners had slow workouts before the race. Most ran a bullet workout. Four of the 6 winners did. That is a 66% hit rate.

I had Hard Spun last year. He had the bullet workout. He ran a lifetime high 107 Beyer figure in the Derby. Street Sense ran a 110. I thought Hard Spun did well considering most didn't even give him a chance. He would have won if SS didn't get a perfect trip through on the rail and run a huge race.

[jtat]

That's a fair point. But what about pace? Pace makes the race is a cliche but it is true when it concerns people or horses running a race. The sharp work shows that a horse is fit. However the internal fractions always deterimine the outcome of a race.

Once they draw the field and we'll see who is running, it might be easier to make guessmites of who will set the pace, how fast they will run the first 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4's and whether that will be too fast to sustain their run in the lane.

[plainolebill]

In 2007 6 horses had at least one bullet work between their last race and the Derby.

[ny0707ny]

I mean the bullet workout as their last workout. We had 4 last year. Hard Spun was the best of those 4. He came in 2nd.

[cj]

I mean the bullet workout as their last workout. We had 4 last year. Hard Spun was the best of those 4. He came in 2nd.

So if you boxed all four, you didn't cash? How about playing them over/under the others in the exacta? I guess you cash, but it would have been pretty expensive.

[ny0707ny]

I don't bet anymore. I only did on the Derby when I did.

Last year though I put $50 on Hard Spun to win. Before I left the house, I was gonna do $50 to place just in case he lost. Go figure. He winds up coming in 2nd. I would have won. :bang:

[46zilzal]

In a field where so much in unknown and the traffic is guaranteed, single horse wagers are not logical.

Take some of the obvious also rans out and the complexion really changes.

[FlyinLate]

It is not Big Brown or Pyro. WP was my pick before so it was hard to find another horse. It will now depend on the workouts and post positions if I pick him or not. :jump:

What a pointless post if you don't say who the horse is :ThmbDown:

[joanied]

What a pointless post if you don't say who the horse is :ThmbDown:

I was wondering the same thing...NY07Ny07...are ya gonna tell us :rolleyes: who it is??

[Ron]

What a pointless post if you don't say who the horse is :ThmbDown:

All his/her posts are pointless if he/she doesn't bet anymore. There's a reason for that.

[ny0707ny]

Im just not the gambling type. I also rather spend more time on other things. You have to follow every little thing if you bet. I only used to bet on the Kentucky Derby anyway.

I can't final my pick yet since I don't know the fields and post positions. I also need the final workouts still here. Next Wednesday is the post draw so I will have it next week.

[rastajenk]

The world will be waiting with breath a-bating. :rolleyes:

[eastie]

you can't win if you don't bet.....and if you don't bet...., well they have boards for other wierdos who don't bet either. I'm not sure what they are, but i'm pretty sure they are out there. What "no run" plodder do you like ? I need a couple of throw outs.

[whyhorseofcourse]

War pass is still the top dog.
I Hope I get 10/1

[eastie]

i thought he was out

[ny0707ny]

you can't win if you don't bet.....and if you don't bet...., well they have boards for other wierdos who don't bet either. I'm not sure what they are, but i'm pretty sure they are out there. What "no run" plodder do you like ? I need a couple of throw outs.

:D :D I follow soccer big since I now have the FSC but I don't bet on that. I just like following the sport since I was a kid. I don't mind if people bet on it. Watching the races is enough for me. Next week I will have my pick after the PP draw on Wednesday.

[ny0707ny]

War pass is still the top dog.
I Hope I get 10/1

He is injured and will be out for months. He was my horse also.:( Lets hope he will be back this year.

[joanied]

you can't win if you don't bet.....and if you don't bet...., well they have boards for other wierdos who don't bet either. I'm not sure what they are, but i'm pretty sure they are out there. What "no run" plodder do you like ? I need a couple of throw outs.

hey,hey,hey... I don't bet either....guess that makes me a wierdo too...geeze!!
Been involved with the horses since Carry Back won the Derby....rubbed horses at Belmont, Hialeah, Saratoga, lived & worked on a farm in Ocala.... thoroughbred & racing runs through my veins.... but hey, I don't bet, I am a wierdo :eek:
I did bet while I was working at the track...but never really handicapped much...when you work on the backside, you get all that great 'inside information'...like Bill Shoemaker telling me to bet Avatar in the Belmont....but I bet my beloved Foolish Pleasure...or Bobby Frankle in the track kitchen telling you he has one in the 3rd, or being privelidged to get the call from someone like Allen Jerkins when he worked one before the clockers got there...
we have no OTB in Wyoming :mad: and I can't afford an account on one of the online services :( , so I don't bet, at least not money...does any of that take away from what I get watching and following the horses...not in your lifetime..the emotional and excitement part of it is all I need.

OH...and if some of us want to wait til the draw next week to pick our horse, well, that's fine too, don't ya think? Do you have to use sarcasim about 'plodders' to get your point across?

You can sure give your opinions here without calling :ThmbDown: people names or telling them they might fare better finding another forum....please.
:)

[PaceAdvantage]

You can sure give your opinions here without calling :ThmbDown: people names or telling them they might fare better finding another forum....please.
:)Well said....

[joanied]

Well said....

Thank you