Big Brown worked this morning

[Grits]

A friend got this stable alert on Big Brown for this morning's work.

This is one SERIOUS racehorse.

Horse name: Big Brown

Activity type: Workout
Activity date: 04-24-2008
Track Palm Meadows
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 5 Furlongs
Workout type: Handily
Workout time: 0:58.60
Track condition: Fast

[Bubbles]

I'd love to see a work at Churchill to see how he takes to the track. Not sure how realistic that is, though, given his feet.

[joeya]

According to reports from Churchill, Big Brown is scheduled to have a three-furlong blowout over the track two days before the Derby.

He worked four days before his allowance win at Gulfstream (2nd fastest) and then again four days before the Florida Derby-G1 (bullet).

Four days seemed to do the trick, so why change now and blow him out just two days before the biggest race of his life? What if he goes out Thursday morning in :33/:34 and change ...

Everyone got on Larry Jones for Hard Spun's super-quick work during Derby week last year, but it wasn't two days out.

[46zilzal]

A friend got this stable alert on Big Brown for this morning's work.

This is one SERIOUS racehorse.

Horse name: Big Brown

Activity type: Workout
Activity date: 04-24-2008
Track Palm Meadows
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 5 Furlongs
Workout type: Handily
Workout time: 0:58.60
Track condition: Fast
Many sprinters can match or beat that and that has LITTLE to do with 10 furlongs. Stamina, while you are still a baby, is the key to the first Saturday in May.

[ny0707ny]

I am not a fan of BB yet at least, but a bullet workout before the Derby is a great sign. :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

I am not a fan of BB yet at least, but a bullet workout before the Derby is a great sign.
It just means they are fit, doesn't mean they get the trip.

The Derby had a weak field last year???? Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun all dominated later that summer, and it was a weak field? Strange.

[Grits]

Zilly, I love it when you impart something we don't know; still, regardless, this is a SERIOUS racehorse, whose, damn seriously, fast. We've yet to see whether he can carry his cruising speed the Derby distance. We will know in a few short days.

According to today's press release from Gulfstream, his trainer ain't worried AT ALL!

A excerpt from Gulfstream's PR Department.

Big Brown suffered from quarter cracks earlier in his career, but Dutrow said the colt’s one-time brittle feet are no longer a concern.

“His feet have been cold the last three or four weeks,” he said. “I’m not worried about his feet at all.”

Big Brown is expected to depart Palm Meadows – winter headquarters for Street Sense and Barbaro, the last two Kentucky Derby winners – Monday.

“I have about 80 horses up in New York, and I talk to my people up there every day,” Dutrow said, “but I’d rather be here with this horse because it’s so much fun. He wants to be here at Palm Meadows.”

Getting off his seat long enough to give his colt a peppermint, he said, “We spoil him … he probably gets away with murder … but he’s the one who told us he wants to be here.”

Big Brown closed at 3-1, the favorite, after Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

“It’s an honor to be the favorite now, and he’ll be the favorite on Derby Day, I can guarantee that,” Dutrow said. “We’re a betting stable, and we’ll make sure he’s the favorite.”

[ny0707ny]

From 2002-2007.... 4 of the last 6 winners had a bulett workout as their last workout. I also see it as a sign the horse is getting better.

[46zilzal]

Who won and who ran out?

[46zilzal]

Who won and who ran out part two? Works won't differentiate a thing.

[46zilzal]

Another one with much the same works, where did this one finish BASED upon works?

See how irrelevant they are?

[ny0707ny]

Hello! I am talking about the Derby only here. Not regular races.

[46zilzal]

And these works must have been from a slow boat from China.

[46zilzal]

Hello! I am talking about the Derby only here. Not regular races.
These are the colts last works last year and they DO NOT COME CLOSE to predicting a thing other than fitness.

[GaryG]

From 2002-2007.... 4 of the last 6 winners had a bulett workout as their last workout. I also see it as a sign the horse is getting better.I agree....I think he will run big.

[46zilzal]

Coaltown Cat, Street Sense, Teuflesberg, Curlin in that order.

Two hit the board, two were no where.

[46zilzal]

And Giacomo's were really on the slow side.

[46zilzal]

Whereas Wilko MUST have been a much better colt, and he was not at that distance that day.

[46zilzal]

This one HAD to be a winner on Derby day but was not and look at Wimbeldon's works : they say he was fit, that's it.

[NY BRED]

The horse is a freak and both Dutrow and Kent D passed going to Dubai
to run in the Florida Derby.

This action by both parties points this horse as a serious palyer
to win the Derby and Preakness based upon his speed, durability and
lack of talented rivals to date.

Even better, he is fresh and untested on Synthetic, which inmho
may have adversely affected the chances of previous contenders
such as Pyro coming into the Derby.

Only issue to deal with will be probable odds of 2-1 or :bang: 5-2 :bang:

[ny0707ny]

BB will also have a hot pace to deal with. Gayego, Glory, Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack also like to run on or near the lead.

If BB can overcome just 3 starts and a face pace, and still win, then you got a possible Triple Crown Horse here. It seems a lot to overcome though. Considering it has not been done in over 90 years, the odds are against it. I will believe it when I see it. :jump:

[46zilzal]

The horse is a freak and both Dutrow and Kent D passed going to Dubai
to run in the Florida Derby.


Seems to me that was the story on Curlin too.

[ny0707ny]

I liked Curlin. Last year though I said he can't win on just 3 starts. He was too green back then. I think he came in 3rd. Still good. But about 8 lengths behind the winner.

Turned out to be SOME horse though :ThmbUp:

I had spotted Curlin even before his first race ever. I noticed I think it was a 46 or so 4f workout. And really fast workouts before his first race. He won his first race.

[46zilzal]

I liked Curlin. Last year though I said he can't win on just 3 starts. He was too green back then. I think he came in 3rd. Still good. But about 8 lengths behind the winner.


works before his Derby right here:http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46185&page=1&pp=15

[ny0707ny]

His workout was fast. Too green though like I said. I doubt he will win. Im not a fan of BB. Not yet at least. The Derby is not a race for a horse with just 3 starts. The odds are against him winning I think.

[PaceAdvantage]

This one HAD to be a winner on Derby day but was not and look at Wimbeldon's works : they say he was fit, that's it.Based on your posts in this thread, I have to assume you usually use a sledgehammer to drive a 4d nail? There is something to be said for getting your point across in one reply....

[ny0707ny]

I have no idea where this thread went off, but I think that nobody understood what I was talking about with the workouts.Anyway good luck in Derby! :sleeping:

[GaryG]

I have no idea where this thread went off, but I think that nobody understood what I was talking about with the workouts.Anyway good luck in Derby! :sleeping:zilly will tell you who he likes when the charts are in. :lol:

[46zilzal]

Based on your posts in this thread, I have to assume you usually use a sledgehammer to drive a 4d nail? There is something to be said for getting your point across in one reply....
Substantiation requires data or no one should believe it. Data is not opinion.

[Tom]

What data have you provided? Did I miss it?:D

[FlyinLate]

BB will also have a hot pace to deal with. Gayego, Glory, Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack also like to run on or near the lead.

If BB can overcome just 3 starts and a face pace, and still win, then you got a possible Triple Crown Horse here. It seems a lot to overcome though. Considering it has not been done in over 90 years, the odds are against it. I will believe it when I see it. :jump:

While I understand your reasoning, don't you consider it hypocritical on your part?

Your selection was War Pass. War Pass has proved to NEED the front, no way around it. He also failed (although running a damn good race) after a hot pace.

Big Brown
-No longer needs to deal with WP on front end
-Has proven he can rate (2nd start he didnt have the lead)
-Has overcome hot fractions to win by 5 lengths

His only negatives are racing experience and his feet.

[ny0707ny]

War Pass got injured in his last race. That's why he came in 2nd at Aqueduct. He still almost beat that horse out anyway. The horse he ran the speed duel with died out long before the turn.

[46zilzal]

War Pass got injured in his last race. That's why he came in 2nd at Aqueduct. He still almost beat that horse out anyway. The horse he ran the speed duel with died out long before the turn.
Over one of the most speed favoring tracks out there.

[NY BRED]

Seems to me that was the story on Curlin too.


I neglected to add BB won the Fla Derby from the 12 post, again proving,
he deserves the description of being a special horse.

Iaeh purchased 75% of BB for 2.5 million, and I'm figuring between the
advice of their trainer and the fact that none of the derby candidates
appear to have half the ability of this horse , that we may have a real
possibility of a triple Crown winner.


Were War Pass able to compete, I'd agree It would be difficult for either
horse to sweep the Triple Crown, and the Derby would be wide open to all.


Further, the debacle at Keenland may have adversely affected
some of the possible contenders and further enhanced the chances
of Big Brown who is fresh and apparently feeling well as evidenced
by his recent work.

[Investorater]

Common knowledge dictates that any given race has a multitude of stats,angles,facets,and information to contend with.

[Semipro]

Here's the kind of work that has substance. Before the FD Big Brown worked in company with Diamond Strikes and outworked him before he flew off to Dubai. That's when Dutrow knew what a special horse he had and he is totally confident the UPS truck will deliver the goods on the 1st SAt. in May.My guess is he will work three furlongs three days out not two and he will win and if Dutrow does not bet so much as to him keep below 5/2 I will just have to season that chalk with some Ben Franklin's special sauce to enhance the flavor.

[ny0707ny]

Over one of the most speed favoring tracks out there.

Not that day. It was rated fast but the track was tiring. I think we had rain before and it was in the dry-out mode.

[The WindfallAngler]

the fact that none of the derby candidates
appear to have half the ability of this horse , that we may have a real
possibility of a triple Crown winner...

...Further, the debacle at Keenland may have adversely affected
some of the possible contenders and further enhanced the chances
of Big Brown who is fresh and apparently feeling well as evidenced
by his recent work.

I can agree with at least one of your observations, "that we may have a real possibility of a triple crown winner"

Brown's G1 Florida was a corker, beyond question.

It is the added distance, and the sharply increased quality of his foes, that may prove to be Big Brown's undoing.

Nor am I able, try as I may, to envision Big Brown -- a large figure earner, whichever way it cuts -- getting loose on the lead & opening up against these rivals.

Rather, I predict that he will encounter Turbulent Traffic -- to coin a phrase -- as never before. Big Brown may well flatten and sulk, after Colonel John and a few others, go on by.

(In passing: If BB's recent work can be considered evidence that he's "feeling well," I wonder how much MORE "in the pink" must Colonel John be feeling?)