Vinman
04-23-2008, 05:33 PM
The following is a copy of an e-mail I recently sent to Alex Waldrop of the NTRA in response to his "mass distribution" e-mail to horseplayers for new ideas to move the game forward.
In a nutshell, my idea was a 50 cent Pick 6 wager that would take place in about 50 minutes from start to finish. The tracks involved would be Churchill, Calder and Arlington, all of which are owned by Churchill Downs, which would certainly make it easier to implement if the idea were well received.
As you'll see below, Alex responded favorably to the idea...........
From: Vinman11@aol.com [mailto:Vinman11@aol.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 11:21 AM
To: Alex Waldrop, NTRA
Subject: A New Exotic Wager for "The Little Guy"
Dear Alex:
I appreciate having received your recent e-mail requesting ideas from “the average horseplayer” in order to help drive forward this great game of ours.
I’ve got one for you. A few years ago when the Magna 5 wager was introduced, I was initially very interested in playing it until I found out that the minimum wager was $2.00. My thought was “great idea, wrong execution”. If you look at the recent handle figures for the Magna 5, there have been a number of times when the $500,000 guarantee has not been reached. This of course means that Magna has to dig into its pocket to come up with the difference. Perhaps they went with the $2 minimum to try to generate carryovers. However, this simply hasn’t happened. Of the approximately 50 Magna 5 wagers that have been run since the bet debuted in 2004, a carryover has occurred on only two occasions.
Yesterday I was sitting with a friend of mine who sends thousands of dollars through the windows during the course of a weekend. He told me the reason he doesn’t play the Magna 5 is because of the $2.00 minimum. He and I are on the same page in that we both love to play the Pick 4’s, especially at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, where the minimum Pick 4 wager is 50 cents.
Now let me move on to my idea, a new multitrack wager for “the little guy” which utilizes the best feature of the Magna 5, the closely spaced post times, and takes it to a new level. We’ll call it the “Quick Six”, a Pick 6 wager with a 50 cent minimum that takes only 50 minutes to run, using two races each from Churchill, Arlington and Calder, all CDSN tracks. You like this so far, I can tell.
How do I know that it’s possible to run the 6 races in 50 minutes? Being curious about this myself, I went to the BRIS chart archives and made up a quick Excel spreadsheet, simply listing the post times for the latter part of the cards for those three tracks. First I did it for Saturday, May 12, 2007. After then sorting all the races by post time, here’s a chronological listing of the races that were run at those three tracks beginning at 5pm EDT, adding one hour to the Arlington post times to account for the time zone difference:
The theoretical “Quick Six” sequence for 5/12/07:
5:02pm – Arlington Race 7
5:11pm – Calder Race 10
5:23pm – Churchill Race 9
5:31pm – Arlington Race 8
5:42pm – Calder Race 11
5:52pm – Churchill Race 10
I was pleasantly surprised that these post times were already ideally spaced. Then again, being that these are all CDSN tracks, it was probably planned that way.
Then I was curious how this wager would work on Kentucky Derby Day, with the Derby post time being after 6pm. Again using Calder and Arlington as the other two tracks, here’s how a “Quick 6” wager could have been run on Derby Day last year based on the actual races run:
4:54pm – Churchill Race 9 (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic)
5:08pm – Calder Race 11 (Sumter Stakes)
5:22pm – Arlington Race 8 (allowance)
5:37pm – Calder Race 12 (claiming)
5:49pm – Arlington Race 9 (Timeless Native Stakes)
6:16pm – Churchill Race 10 (Kentucky Derby)
Again, without having to make any post time adjustments, here you have a well spaced 6 race sequence that begins and ends with large field Grade 1 Churchill Downs stakes, culminating with the world’s greatest horse race, all unfolding in just 82 minutes!
I think Derby Day would be a great opportunity to introduce this wager, as it would create some additional excitement during those 82 minutes between the Woodford Reserve and the Derby. Hopefully you can make this wager happen for 2008.
The “Quick 6” wager could be run every Saturday starting Derby Day. When Churchill closes, perhaps Lone Star could be used in its place. This would carry the wager into July. Perhaps eventually the NTRA could expand this wager to include tracks such as Saratoga and Del Mar.
The key to this wager is the 50 cent minimum, which is the overwhelming choice among the dozen or so horseplayers to whom I’ve posed the question “A buck or 50 cents?” with respect to a new Pick 6 wager. I was originally thinking a buck until I realized that the 50 cent minimum is not only more affordable for the average player, but it would keep more money in circulation by reducing the number of occasions that 30+% would be withheld. A $5,100 for $1.00 payoff would trigger such a withholding, whereas a $2,550 payoff for 50 cents payoff would not.
Speaking from the perspective of once having been fortunate enough to hit the $45,000+ Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 back in 2000 on a “syndicate” wager of $17,988, these are the “little things” that become major issues when a winning Pick 6 score occurs. In that case I wound up paying everyone their “full amount” right away and waited until the taxman paid me my share 6 months later.
Just as important as the 50 cent minimum would be making sure that the 6 races carded for the Quick 6 would have full fields. Considerable care would ideally be taken by the racing office of all three tracks to make sure they card an extra race or two on a Saturday of whatever fills best at their track and make sure those races are properly slotted in the “Quick 6”. I’d avoid including turf races from Calder because of their “less predictable” weather. I’d also avoid 2 year old maiden races from any track. The goal would be to serve up 6 full fields of 12….maybe even 14, all of which ideally have run at least once. Having the challenge of making the wager difficult from a handicapping perspective via the full fields would be the “trade off” for using an “affordable” minimum bet of 50 cents.
Alex, hopefully I’ve sold you on this “Quick 6” concept and that you can start the ball rolling toward it becoming a “staple” every Saturday beginning on Derby Day. Perhaps Sundays could be added as well if it takes off, with a “Saturday into Sunday” carryover provision if it goes unhit.
I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Very truly yours,
Vincent P. Ralph Jr
Subj: RE: A New Exotic Wager for "The Little Guy"
Date: 3/20/2008 10:33:16 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
From: AlexWaldrop@ntra.com
To: Vinman11@aol.com
Sent from the Internet
Vincent,
This is great stuff. I really like the concept and hope you won’t mind if we share it with our team. We are looking at trying to re-launch the NTRA National Pick 4s on a regular basis. Perhaps that effort could lead to your idea. Stay in touch and keep the ideas coming.,
Alex
While Alex's reply was certainly encouraging, I realized that if I was going to try to make a Pick 6 happen between Churchill, Calder and Arlington in time for the Spring meet, I would have to approach the three tracks directly. To that end I wrote the following "snail mail" letter to Bob Evans of Churchill Downs, with copies to the folks noted in the body of the letter. I included the original e-mail I'd sent to Alex Waldrop.........
March 24, 2008
Mr. Robert L. Evans
President and CEO
Churchill Downs, Inc.
700 Central Avenue
Louisville, KY 40208
Re: A New Exotic Wager for “The Little Guy”
Dear Mr. Evans:
Attached you will find a copy of an e-mail I sent last week to Alex Waldrop of the NTRA in response to an e-mail he had sent to many horse racing fans across the country looking for new ideas to move the sport forward. As you can see, Alex was kind enough to reply to my e-mail, offering positive feedback on my idea of a “Quick 6”, a 50 cent Pick 6 wager involving two races each from Churchill, Calder and Arlington that could be completed in about 50 minutes on a typical Saturday or Sunday card.
While I was very gratified to receive Alex’s positive response, it dawned on me that if this idea is going to have any chance of happening in time for the 2008 spring racing season, I would need to bring it directly to the attention of the management teams of the three tracks involved as quickly as possible. To that end I’m also sending a copy of this to Brent Alexander, as well as Ken Dunn and Mike Cronin of Calder and Roy Arnold and Wesley Ward at Arlington. I’m sending a copy to “Mr. D.” as well.
After you read my attached e-mail “presentation” on the “Quick 6”, I think you’ll agree that a wager like this would definitely spice things up on Derby Day, adding a bit of drama to those 82 minutes between the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Derby itself as the final leg of the Quick 6 wager.
Should the “Quick 6” somehow get the green light in time for Derby Day ‘08, I would recommend a minimum guaranteed pool of at least $300,000, based on the betting handle on the Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s from last year’s Derby Day, using the BRIS chart archives:
Pick 4 on races 1 thru 4: $344,666
Pick 3 on races 5-6-7: $317,609
Pick 3 on races 6-7-8: $457,437
Pick 3 on races 7-8-9: $349,997
Pick 4 on races 7 thru 10: $2,174,027
Pick 3 on races 8-9-10: $1,275,236
Pick 4 on races 9 thru 12: $550,292
Pick 3 on races 9-10-11: $360,283
Pick 3 on races 10-11-12: $392,020
For a typical Saturday, perhaps a $150,000 or $200,000 pool guarantee would suffice at the outset, to be adjusted upward once the bet gains a following.
I appreciate your taking the time to review this. Hopefully some thought will be given to taking advantage of the unique scheduling “window” during which the top three Churchill owned tracks are operating simultaneously from early May through the 4th of July to give this wager a go. Its pp’s could appear in the front of the Daily Racing Form each week as the 50 Cent CDSN Quick 6.
I would appreciate any thoughts you may have.
Very truly yours,
Vincent P. Ralph Jr
After a couple of weeks went by, I received this response from Tom Aaronson
of Churchill Downs.....
Subj: Quick 6
Date: 4/11/2008 3:13:21 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time
From: Tom.Aronson@kyderby.com
To: vinman11@aol.com
Sent from the Internet (Details)
Vincent,
I received your letter to Bob Evans on the Quick 6 concept in my capacity of corporate Vice President of Programming and Product Development for Churchill Downs. As has been conveyed to you previously, your interest in developing fan interest in racing is acknowledged and welcome.
You’ll appreciate the fact that we’re now heavily invested in analysis and actual implementation of wagering innovations. Generally, the Q6 concept you describe has two fundamental challenges:
The logistics are more complex than might at first be apparent due not just to track schedules, changes and interruptions, but also inter-tote protocols and interstate restrictions. Overcoming all of them at once in a bet configured as described is not a simple matter. That said, we are working to modify the industry’s betting platforms and regulatory environments to facilitate such development.
The price of a bet dictates how many combinations are played. The lower the price, the more combinations covered. So, if the goal is to generate carryovers, the lower price will work against it in a very substantial way. We’ve modeled this “conflict” between low pricing and high payouts and generally feel that serving both masters within one pool is highly problematical. There’s a balance in there somewhere, and we’re working on that as well.
We are going to continue to review and develop concepts like this that can reduce the time between the placement of a bet and a potentially big hit. Thanks very much for your input.
Tom Aronson
Vice President
Churchill Downs Incorporated
Oh well, looks like the 50 cent "Quick 6" won't happen any time soon, but at least we swung the bat.
I'm curious how many out there are interested in a 50 Pick 6 wager, where tax withholding begins at $5,000 on a 50 cent wager rather than $5,000 on a $2.00 wager.
Vinnie Ralph
In a nutshell, my idea was a 50 cent Pick 6 wager that would take place in about 50 minutes from start to finish. The tracks involved would be Churchill, Calder and Arlington, all of which are owned by Churchill Downs, which would certainly make it easier to implement if the idea were well received.
As you'll see below, Alex responded favorably to the idea...........
From: Vinman11@aol.com [mailto:Vinman11@aol.com]
Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2008 11:21 AM
To: Alex Waldrop, NTRA
Subject: A New Exotic Wager for "The Little Guy"
Dear Alex:
I appreciate having received your recent e-mail requesting ideas from “the average horseplayer” in order to help drive forward this great game of ours.
I’ve got one for you. A few years ago when the Magna 5 wager was introduced, I was initially very interested in playing it until I found out that the minimum wager was $2.00. My thought was “great idea, wrong execution”. If you look at the recent handle figures for the Magna 5, there have been a number of times when the $500,000 guarantee has not been reached. This of course means that Magna has to dig into its pocket to come up with the difference. Perhaps they went with the $2 minimum to try to generate carryovers. However, this simply hasn’t happened. Of the approximately 50 Magna 5 wagers that have been run since the bet debuted in 2004, a carryover has occurred on only two occasions.
Yesterday I was sitting with a friend of mine who sends thousands of dollars through the windows during the course of a weekend. He told me the reason he doesn’t play the Magna 5 is because of the $2.00 minimum. He and I are on the same page in that we both love to play the Pick 4’s, especially at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, where the minimum Pick 4 wager is 50 cents.
Now let me move on to my idea, a new multitrack wager for “the little guy” which utilizes the best feature of the Magna 5, the closely spaced post times, and takes it to a new level. We’ll call it the “Quick Six”, a Pick 6 wager with a 50 cent minimum that takes only 50 minutes to run, using two races each from Churchill, Arlington and Calder, all CDSN tracks. You like this so far, I can tell.
How do I know that it’s possible to run the 6 races in 50 minutes? Being curious about this myself, I went to the BRIS chart archives and made up a quick Excel spreadsheet, simply listing the post times for the latter part of the cards for those three tracks. First I did it for Saturday, May 12, 2007. After then sorting all the races by post time, here’s a chronological listing of the races that were run at those three tracks beginning at 5pm EDT, adding one hour to the Arlington post times to account for the time zone difference:
The theoretical “Quick Six” sequence for 5/12/07:
5:02pm – Arlington Race 7
5:11pm – Calder Race 10
5:23pm – Churchill Race 9
5:31pm – Arlington Race 8
5:42pm – Calder Race 11
5:52pm – Churchill Race 10
I was pleasantly surprised that these post times were already ideally spaced. Then again, being that these are all CDSN tracks, it was probably planned that way.
Then I was curious how this wager would work on Kentucky Derby Day, with the Derby post time being after 6pm. Again using Calder and Arlington as the other two tracks, here’s how a “Quick 6” wager could have been run on Derby Day last year based on the actual races run:
4:54pm – Churchill Race 9 (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic)
5:08pm – Calder Race 11 (Sumter Stakes)
5:22pm – Arlington Race 8 (allowance)
5:37pm – Calder Race 12 (claiming)
5:49pm – Arlington Race 9 (Timeless Native Stakes)
6:16pm – Churchill Race 10 (Kentucky Derby)
Again, without having to make any post time adjustments, here you have a well spaced 6 race sequence that begins and ends with large field Grade 1 Churchill Downs stakes, culminating with the world’s greatest horse race, all unfolding in just 82 minutes!
I think Derby Day would be a great opportunity to introduce this wager, as it would create some additional excitement during those 82 minutes between the Woodford Reserve and the Derby. Hopefully you can make this wager happen for 2008.
The “Quick 6” wager could be run every Saturday starting Derby Day. When Churchill closes, perhaps Lone Star could be used in its place. This would carry the wager into July. Perhaps eventually the NTRA could expand this wager to include tracks such as Saratoga and Del Mar.
The key to this wager is the 50 cent minimum, which is the overwhelming choice among the dozen or so horseplayers to whom I’ve posed the question “A buck or 50 cents?” with respect to a new Pick 6 wager. I was originally thinking a buck until I realized that the 50 cent minimum is not only more affordable for the average player, but it would keep more money in circulation by reducing the number of occasions that 30+% would be withheld. A $5,100 for $1.00 payoff would trigger such a withholding, whereas a $2,550 payoff for 50 cents payoff would not.
Speaking from the perspective of once having been fortunate enough to hit the $45,000+ Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 back in 2000 on a “syndicate” wager of $17,988, these are the “little things” that become major issues when a winning Pick 6 score occurs. In that case I wound up paying everyone their “full amount” right away and waited until the taxman paid me my share 6 months later.
Just as important as the 50 cent minimum would be making sure that the 6 races carded for the Quick 6 would have full fields. Considerable care would ideally be taken by the racing office of all three tracks to make sure they card an extra race or two on a Saturday of whatever fills best at their track and make sure those races are properly slotted in the “Quick 6”. I’d avoid including turf races from Calder because of their “less predictable” weather. I’d also avoid 2 year old maiden races from any track. The goal would be to serve up 6 full fields of 12….maybe even 14, all of which ideally have run at least once. Having the challenge of making the wager difficult from a handicapping perspective via the full fields would be the “trade off” for using an “affordable” minimum bet of 50 cents.
Alex, hopefully I’ve sold you on this “Quick 6” concept and that you can start the ball rolling toward it becoming a “staple” every Saturday beginning on Derby Day. Perhaps Sundays could be added as well if it takes off, with a “Saturday into Sunday” carryover provision if it goes unhit.
I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Very truly yours,
Vincent P. Ralph Jr
Subj: RE: A New Exotic Wager for "The Little Guy"
Date: 3/20/2008 10:33:16 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
From: AlexWaldrop@ntra.com
To: Vinman11@aol.com
Sent from the Internet
Vincent,
This is great stuff. I really like the concept and hope you won’t mind if we share it with our team. We are looking at trying to re-launch the NTRA National Pick 4s on a regular basis. Perhaps that effort could lead to your idea. Stay in touch and keep the ideas coming.,
Alex
While Alex's reply was certainly encouraging, I realized that if I was going to try to make a Pick 6 happen between Churchill, Calder and Arlington in time for the Spring meet, I would have to approach the three tracks directly. To that end I wrote the following "snail mail" letter to Bob Evans of Churchill Downs, with copies to the folks noted in the body of the letter. I included the original e-mail I'd sent to Alex Waldrop.........
March 24, 2008
Mr. Robert L. Evans
President and CEO
Churchill Downs, Inc.
700 Central Avenue
Louisville, KY 40208
Re: A New Exotic Wager for “The Little Guy”
Dear Mr. Evans:
Attached you will find a copy of an e-mail I sent last week to Alex Waldrop of the NTRA in response to an e-mail he had sent to many horse racing fans across the country looking for new ideas to move the sport forward. As you can see, Alex was kind enough to reply to my e-mail, offering positive feedback on my idea of a “Quick 6”, a 50 cent Pick 6 wager involving two races each from Churchill, Calder and Arlington that could be completed in about 50 minutes on a typical Saturday or Sunday card.
While I was very gratified to receive Alex’s positive response, it dawned on me that if this idea is going to have any chance of happening in time for the 2008 spring racing season, I would need to bring it directly to the attention of the management teams of the three tracks involved as quickly as possible. To that end I’m also sending a copy of this to Brent Alexander, as well as Ken Dunn and Mike Cronin of Calder and Roy Arnold and Wesley Ward at Arlington. I’m sending a copy to “Mr. D.” as well.
After you read my attached e-mail “presentation” on the “Quick 6”, I think you’ll agree that a wager like this would definitely spice things up on Derby Day, adding a bit of drama to those 82 minutes between the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Derby itself as the final leg of the Quick 6 wager.
Should the “Quick 6” somehow get the green light in time for Derby Day ‘08, I would recommend a minimum guaranteed pool of at least $300,000, based on the betting handle on the Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s from last year’s Derby Day, using the BRIS chart archives:
Pick 4 on races 1 thru 4: $344,666
Pick 3 on races 5-6-7: $317,609
Pick 3 on races 6-7-8: $457,437
Pick 3 on races 7-8-9: $349,997
Pick 4 on races 7 thru 10: $2,174,027
Pick 3 on races 8-9-10: $1,275,236
Pick 4 on races 9 thru 12: $550,292
Pick 3 on races 9-10-11: $360,283
Pick 3 on races 10-11-12: $392,020
For a typical Saturday, perhaps a $150,000 or $200,000 pool guarantee would suffice at the outset, to be adjusted upward once the bet gains a following.
I appreciate your taking the time to review this. Hopefully some thought will be given to taking advantage of the unique scheduling “window” during which the top three Churchill owned tracks are operating simultaneously from early May through the 4th of July to give this wager a go. Its pp’s could appear in the front of the Daily Racing Form each week as the 50 Cent CDSN Quick 6.
I would appreciate any thoughts you may have.
Very truly yours,
Vincent P. Ralph Jr
After a couple of weeks went by, I received this response from Tom Aaronson
of Churchill Downs.....
Subj: Quick 6
Date: 4/11/2008 3:13:21 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time
From: Tom.Aronson@kyderby.com
To: vinman11@aol.com
Sent from the Internet (Details)
Vincent,
I received your letter to Bob Evans on the Quick 6 concept in my capacity of corporate Vice President of Programming and Product Development for Churchill Downs. As has been conveyed to you previously, your interest in developing fan interest in racing is acknowledged and welcome.
You’ll appreciate the fact that we’re now heavily invested in analysis and actual implementation of wagering innovations. Generally, the Q6 concept you describe has two fundamental challenges:
The logistics are more complex than might at first be apparent due not just to track schedules, changes and interruptions, but also inter-tote protocols and interstate restrictions. Overcoming all of them at once in a bet configured as described is not a simple matter. That said, we are working to modify the industry’s betting platforms and regulatory environments to facilitate such development.
The price of a bet dictates how many combinations are played. The lower the price, the more combinations covered. So, if the goal is to generate carryovers, the lower price will work against it in a very substantial way. We’ve modeled this “conflict” between low pricing and high payouts and generally feel that serving both masters within one pool is highly problematical. There’s a balance in there somewhere, and we’re working on that as well.
We are going to continue to review and develop concepts like this that can reduce the time between the placement of a bet and a potentially big hit. Thanks very much for your input.
Tom Aronson
Vice President
Churchill Downs Incorporated
Oh well, looks like the 50 cent "Quick 6" won't happen any time soon, but at least we swung the bat.
I'm curious how many out there are interested in a 50 Pick 6 wager, where tax withholding begins at $5,000 on a 50 cent wager rather than $5,000 on a $2.00 wager.
Vinnie Ralph