I'm winning II

[dav4463]

Why was the thread closed? Thanks to those who replied. I was wondering if any others handicap in a similar way (tossing horses who appear to be obvious contenders)? I've found that the better they look, the fatter the price when these obvious horses get beat.

[asH]

When you get your new car, you have to appese the gods... a custom license that says 'PArocks'

[Dave Schwartz]

Why was the thread closed?


Interesting question.

[asH]

forgive me almighty one, I merely intend to enlighten the infidel.
:D

[Dave Schwartz]

What are you talking about?

[headhawg]

Maybe one of the moderators thought the thread was going to turn in to the "I'm Winning" (or was it Whining) thread started by some guy named Steve that was here two or three years ago. That was fun for a week or two... :p

[asH]

the original thread may have been perceived as self-serving.


Kee7th
Rich Citizen looks good at 12-1
May Meeting --speed to burn

[Pace Cap'n]

Interesting question.

Especially interesting considering two mods posted and made no mention of locking the thread.

And interesting that the first reply to Dave4463's question was from someone with nary a clue.

[cj]

I was going to post then saw it was locked, so I let it go. I don't know why it was done.

[46zilzal]

Why was the thread closed? Thanks to those who replied. I was wondering if any others handicap in a similar way (tossing horses who appear to be obvious contenders)? I've found that the better they look, the fatter the price when these obvious horses get beat.
The trick of course is knowing just WHEN those fat ones fail.

[Overlay]

I can't argue with a winning record, and granted that tossing the top four Beyers will elevate prices, but might there not be times when horses with high Beyers might get overlooked (for whatever reason) and offer a better chance of coming in at a price under those circumstances than horses with lower Beyers? (In other words, why not apply your criteria across the whole field?) Or have you tried that and found either that it lowers your overall ROI, or that it doesn't occur often enough to justify the added time required to separate the sheep from the goats?

[jonnielu]

I can't argue with a winning record, and granted that tossing the top four Beyers will elevate prices, but might there not be times when horses with high Beyers might get overlooked (for whatever reason) and offer a better chance of coming in at a price under those circumstances than horses with lower Beyers? (In other words, why not apply your criteria across the whole field?) Or have you tried that and found either that it lowers your overall ROI, or that it doesn't occur often enough to justify the added time required to separate the sheep from the goats?

Doubtful that the high beyer would be overlooked, because the high beyer is the one that has the most possibility of accuracy. Even a busted clock is right twice a day, and this is the same with the beyer. I would bet that Dave has developed an understanding that has him correctly concluding that the beyer has blinded his competition (other bettors) to the true ability of horses to run a distance of ground. He has discovered other indicators, that although subtle and un-noticed by most, are actually better and truer indications.

I'll say again, he is to be commended for his vision and for his recognition of the flaws that are adhered to by horseracing's lost generation. :ThmbUp:

I hope that he never looks back and spends the rest of his days bathing in cash. :jump:

[dav4463]

My longshots do have to meet some criteria before I will play them. If they don't, I pass the race. I usually pass over half the races on a card. It's not just blindly betting longshots.

Still, the whole key for me is to handicap the horses without the top 4 Beyer horses. Then, if a horse fits, I play it. Sometimes I play two horses.

I usually play win or win/place, sometimes exacta with the two (sometimes three) longest prices among those top 4 Beyer horses (as long as the top 4 Beyer horse doesn't have a negative class move, a bad trainer/jockey combo or poor form).

I did find that when I apply my same criteria to the top 4 Beyer horses, I get some winners, but they pay $5.20 ! When I apply the same criteria and it fits on a non-top 4 Beyer horse, they pay $22.80 :ThmbUp: and rank in my top two contenders instead of ranking 4th, 5th, or 6th.

[dav4463]

The trick of course is knowing just WHEN those fat ones fail.
very true!

[Kelso]

From WINNING I:

I'm winning. I've been winning for a while now. I hit about 15% to win at solid odds

<snip>

I find longshots with a chance (using my own method) and so far, so good. Can it continue?



Dave,
How long have you been working your method, and how long has it been profitable. Those answers might go a long way to answering your "can it continue" concern. (I, too, tried to post to the original "Winning" thread and wonder why it was locked.)



From WINNING II:

My longshots do have to meet some criteria before I will play them.


Do the top-4 Beyer runners have to pass any additional filters as well before you toss them?

Thank you.

[phatbastard]

it seems , when beyers and the sheets are going in a different direction, beyers runners are overlooked....especially @ NYRA tracks

not sure about eliminating 5 tops in race, but with sturdy bankroll, something leaving out top 2 or 3 could be profitable..but i'm just guessing

[jonnielu]

My longshots do have to meet some criteria before I will play them. If they don't, I pass the race. I usually pass over half the races on a card. It's not just blindly betting longshots.

Still, the whole key for me is to handicap the horses without the top 4 Beyer horses. Then, if a horse fits, I play it. Sometimes I play two horses.

I usually play win or win/place, sometimes exacta with the two (sometimes three) longest prices among those top 4 Beyer horses (as long as the top 4 Beyer horse doesn't have a negative class move, a bad trainer/jockey combo or poor form).

I did find that when I apply my same criteria to the top 4 Beyer horses, I get some winners, but they pay $5.20 ! When I apply the same criteria and it fits on a non-top 4 Beyer horse, they pay $22.80 :ThmbUp: and rank in my top two contenders instead of ranking 4th, 5th, or 6th.

It will continue Dave, you are onto the reason that the average mutuel paid is 4/1, you can expand on it by bringing the 3rd and 4th contender into your view, just have some blinkers on so that you don't get hypnotized by good beyers or good "form". Generally, you are standing in one of the greatest consistencies in horse racing.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

I didn't close the thread....that leaves BillW....hopefully he closed it (by accident most likely), or else something very odd is going on....

[PaceAdvantage]

I just checked the logs, and it was BillW who closed that thread....FYI

[PaceAdvantage]

The original thread is open once again....sorry for the mix up....

[dav4463]

From WINNING I:



Dave,
How long have you been working your method, and how long has it been profitable. Those answers might go a long way to answering your "can it continue" concern. (I, too, tried to post to the original "Winning" thread and wonder why it was locked.)



From WINNING II:


Do the top-4 Beyer runners have to pass any additional filters as well before you toss them?

Thank you.


Since October of last year. I also used it on 500 races using old racing forms before I actually started betting on it. I've had winning stretches before, but this is the first time that it has lasted this long! I play mostly lower level claimers at the night tracks, but my best single day was at Santa Anita. Tonight I played Penn National and Evangeline. I'm a night person I guess! No gigantic profits since I only bet $40 per race, but the bankroll has steadily grown since October of last year.

[BillW]

I just checked the logs, and it was BillW who closed that thread....FYI

Sorry Dave - I didn't do it on purpose, maybe click happy fingers coupled with a slow internet connection (I'm on the road) :blush:

[098poi]

I've had winning stretches before, but this is the first time that it has lasted this long!


Good luck and keep going. Even if things start to go south don't throw in the towel. May just be a bump in the road. That's a problem I have is giving up too easily once something I am working on fails for a little bit. But your run since October is longer than anything I have had!

[Tom]

Always good to hear someone doing well. Let your success build up your confidence....this is a tough game.:ThmbUp:

[Kelso]

Since October of last year. I also used it on 500 races using old racing forms before I actually started betting on it. I've had winning stretches before, but this is the first time that it has lasted this long! I play mostly lower level claimers at the night tracks, but my best single day was at Santa Anita. Tonight I played Penn National and Evangeline. I'm a night person I guess! No gigantic profits since I only bet $40 per race, but the bankroll has steadily grown since October of last year.

Thanks, Dave. Continued good luck with it! :ThmbUp:

[jcrabboy]

I do something similar, but rather than use the Beyers I throw out the 3 Morning Line Favorites for win contention and focus on the next 3 or 4 horses on the Morning Line. This has worked very well for me.

Does anyone else use the ML as a starting point?

[dav4463]

You should be picking many of the same horses I pick. The three morning line favorites are almost always in the Top Four last race Beyer horses unless there is one with a lot of back class or a high profile trainer/jockey.

[jcrabboy]

You should be picking many of the same horses I pick. The three morning line favorites are almost always in the Top Four last race Beyer horses unless there is one with a lot of back class or a high profile trainer/jockey.

You're right. I like the ML as a start because it usually encompasses the more popular handicapping methods: speed, pace, class, perceived form, what have you. It is surprising (and profitable) how often the next set of horses on The ML pop at a price. I tend to use a more esoteric approach when looking at these horses in hopes of rising odds.

[dav4463]

Remember to be patient. I had an 0 for 21 streak and then had a winner pop up and pay $90.60 !

[jcrabboy]

Remember to be patient. I had an 0 for 21 streak and then had a winner pop up and pay $90.60 !

To soften the pain of long losing streaks along with my win bet I will usually wheel my selection over/under the 3 ML favorites in an exacta. These hit fairly frequently and usually pay well.

Across the board betting is viable as well. Can't tell you how many times the place or show price on one of these horses exceeds the win payout on an underlayed favorite. I'm sure you have noticed this also.

Jimmie

[jonnielu]

I do something similar, but rather than use the Beyers I throw out the 3 Morning Line Favorites for win contention and focus on the next 3 or 4 horses on the Morning Line. This has worked very well for me.

Does anyone else use the ML as a starting point?

For over 25 years, I still use it for the "form" handicapper's perspective in a nutshell, if you are going to run with an outsider, 75% of the time these 4 are the ones you will have to beat.

An accurate comparison against this group will usually have you passing at the right time, some physicality can be added to this for a very profitable "lazy man's" method.

Never forget to tell everyone how hard you have to work to grind out every nickel. :ThmbUp:

jdl

[jcrabboy]

When at the track physicality and attitude of the horse is something I pay close attention to. Unfortunately I am too damned slow to catch tell tale signs if I am at the Race Book. The video cuts are way too quick. Frustrating.

[Tampa Russ]

For over 25 years, I still use it for the "form" handicapper's perspective in a nutshell, if you are going to run with an outsider, 75% of the time these 4 are the ones you will have to beat.

An accurate comparison against this group will usually have you passing at the right time, some physicality can be added to this for a very profitable "lazy man's" method.

Never forget to tell everyone how hard you have to work to grind out every nickel. :ThmbUp:

jdl

Can we call it "working smart".:)

[dav4463]

I toss the top four Beyers and try to beat them, but I can definitely see how beating the top four Form picks at the right time can be very profitable.