Key Races

[Rexdale You]

Other than the obvius next start from a key race.

What other factors can be extracted from a key race.

Pace,,,turn time,,,etc,,,

Your input would be appreciated,,,,

Thanks Rex you,,, :confused:

[john del riccio]

Other than the obvius next start from a key race.

What other factors can be extracted from a key race.

Pace,,,turn time,,,etc,,,

Your input would be appreciated,,,,

Thanks Rex you,,, :confused:

The trick is to identify a key race BEFORE everyone knows it is such. Races that show "unusually strong performances" typically produce multiple next out winners.

John

[Rexdale You]

John,,,

While i partially agree,,i would like to see the drf pp post the results of

a candle test,,,coming out of tough races can set a horse back.

Thanks Rex you,,, :) :)

[how cliche]

Hi Rex,
This response is long and not for the lazy. It contains copied emails that paint the picture. Key races are powerful and this one led to a massive personal score Sunday before last, but not until I put in hours of research.

Email 1...
I'm going to put foth a lot of information by link in this email attempting to build a case. I think I may have stumbled across something good.

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/bongo_105784.pdf (http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/bongo_105784.pdf) I found the race of interest by looking at these free pp's & isolating the 4 Count Orange as my choice for the following reasons.
*Even sprint running line off the claim(translates well on the stretchout).
*2 for 5 at the distance.
*Nice drill on the 20th.
*4 for 13 on the synth.
*Should hit hard at the level.
*Trainer bats .430 one step down the class ladder.

One other item of more signifcant interest that could come in handy is: Should the 4 win, it will behoove us to note the March 2 contest as a probable key race. So far only the show horse Trail Mix has returned. That one came back to win at the bottom level(clm10,000) in a convincing manner on March 15(San Felipe day), putting forth a very flashy race exhibiting a dominant final time and wicked fast fractional splits, blowing away anything the runners at a higher level in the very next race were able to put up on that day over the same course at the distance. Count Orange will be the second March 2 runner to return on Friday. I hope I'm right, because I love to discover key races. Here is the chart for the March 2 race should you care to take the names out of it. http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20080302&RN=7 (http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20080302&RN=7)

Here are the charts from the 15th when Trail Mix won. Note that in the 2nd race he ran faster at the clm10,000 level for older colts and geldings than the winner of the 3rd race, an ALWN2X for older fillies and mares.
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20080315&RN=99 (http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20080315&RN=99)

Fwiw,
The winning bsf for the 2nd was 92. Par for the level is 80.
The winning bsf for the 3rd was 87. Par for the level is 88.

Email 2...
I examined #4 Count Orange more carefully today. I saw his morning line of 3-1 and think that's nowhere near good enough to justify playing him tomorrow. This horse is an example of an elimination profile that I was made hip to by a friend. The older horse, now 7 years old, who has declined imperceptibly enough in ability to still get bet, but significantly enough to no longer win races. In other words he's soured. Count Orange at ages 2 through 5 had a lifetime record of 39(11-8-4). Since turning 6 years old it's 18(1-1-1). I think we should watch the race and root for him to win or place, because should he do so that March 2 race he exits is definitely key.

Email 3...
Yah mon. 08Mar2SA7. 3 runners return from it in tomorrow's 6th. We should focus on SMART HIT. There's a closer's bias at SA. Closers are dominating and I don't wanna fight it. Smart Hit has the style being 7.25 lengths back at 1st call. He was well backed at 4-1 in the key too. Hopefully we get some kind of number.

SMART HIT won and paid $20.20

[Rexdale You]

Cliche

Great post,,,Your links failed,,regardless your handicapping is solid.

I need 2 aspirin just to keep up with you,,, :jump: :)

are you taking that info from present to past or reverse,,,

Thanks again Rex you,,,

[Suppositionist]

I find you can say only a few things definitively about key races, they are:

1. The info from them only necessarily applies to future races of the same class, distance, track condition and surface.

2. Key races probably just happen to have as their starters the upper echelon of a particular class of race horse. I most often hear the term “key race” refer to maiden, especially maiden special weight, races. So a Key maiden special weight race will have had as its starters a higher than normally expected number of top quality horses available for this class. This will usually happen earlier in a meet in a higher purse value MSW race.

3. Having been a participant in a “key race” does not automatically make a horse, a good race horse, but it does indicate they have the potential to hang with the better race horses of this class. Probably a better indication than you could normally expect. Still, that key race may have not been the best surface, distance, post, or have unfolded favorably for all the starters and the next race might not either, so always beware.

4. Strong Beyers, a quick last half, horses that stay on well are indications of possible key races or a logical contender for a future race.

5. In lieu of those indicators, in maiden races, both claiming and MSW, I like to see a race that is pulling the track variant up rather than down. You can figure this by subtracting the track variant from 100 which will give you the average speed rating the day of that race. Then add the number of lengths beaten of the horse you are considering to its speed rating to get the winners speed rating (fractions count a whole length). If the winner ran above the average, this race will have pulled the average up and was a reasonably strong race, especially if it was run on a Saturday or a day with quality races especially stakes. The Beyers will often reflect this, but not always. When it doesn‘t, it can be a strong hidden positive, especially against horse who don‘t have experience in such races. Course being beaten more than say fifteen lengths pretty much voids this angle, but not always if the majority of the horses in the race were distanced.

S

[Rexdale You]

Suppo,,,

Your reply is appreciated,,,,

Thanks Rex you,,, :ThmbUp:

[how cliche]

This is an oversimplification. Of course other factors must be examined. However, to a degree key races can be divided into two categories.

Performance Keys-powered by finish positions/running lines of the key.

Toteboard Keys-driven by betting support in the key.

There's an interesting possible performance key, with one final horse to try on Saturday in Hollywood's 6th. 16Mar08SA5. Top 3 all returned to win. 4th placer Shake It Off returns there after losing by 1.8 lengths in the potential key at 62-1.
More research is needed, but I'm interested.