How best to use this information

[TrifectaMike]

How best can one use this information:

In races of field size 8 or greater, contender selection of 5 horses finish in the money 80% of the time. One of the 5 horses is the favorite. The other four contender's odds vary from odds-on to longshots.

Consider any pool; horizontal or vertical.

Or answer info is useless. Consider all possibilities.

Mike

[Tom]

What percent of the races do the 4 non-favorite conters win?

[TrifectaMike]

What percent of the races do the 4 non-favorite conters win?

That statistic is not available to you, but you can make a reasonable assumption.

Mike

[misscashalot]

How best can one use this information:

In races of field size 8 or greater, contender selection of 5 horses finish in the money 80% of the time. One of the 5 horses is the favorite. The other four contender's odds vary from odds-on to longshots.

Consider any pool; horizontal or vertical.

Or answer info is useless. Consider all possibilities.

Mike

Mike

I have been keeping bet rank stats for the first 3 finishers for 20 years.

I break up by
Meet
Sex
Age
Class
Dist
Surface

The info tells me how deep to go in either horizontal or vert tickets.

At best it's an indication, not a silver bullet.

I have had a race type that produced 12 winning favorites out of 14 races, and of course the next time they ran that race type the fav ran out.

[misscashalot]

in 40,000+ NYRA races

winning fav 35%
2nd bet choice 21%
3rd 14%
4th 7%

[Suppositionist]

I’d lay off the race till the investigation was over. I mean if one of the other horses besides the favorite is odds-on that means the favorite is also odds-on. The favorite must be the lowest odds horse right? And if one of the other horses is odds-on (less than even money) then you’d have two horses odds-on. I don’t think that’s possible…unless they raise the take-outs even more.



Small details :)



Assuming that’s a typo, and I’d never put two odds-on horses together even if it was possible, I’d look at who handicaps on top as compared to their actual odds and assuming I could come up with a reasonably plausible way for the race to unfold, I’d formulate trifectas and maybe a super or two around the most logical longshot to run in the money. I mean if all five contenders were one way speed types that really wouldn’t work out so good, but if at least two were stalkers/closers then I’d take a shot at some tris and supers as long as one of the longshots handicapped at least better than two of the others. I usually need one viable longshot or semi longshot (fifth or higher betting choice) to make the tri or super worth the risk.



S