Finishing Times

[SMOO]

I've read a lot about how important the finish of a horse's last prep is as far as picking a Derby winner. Does anyone have any actual stats concerning past Derbys or even this one coming up? TIA.

[46zilzal]

Many Derby winners had less than stellar final preps before the big race: Giacomo, Unbridled (trouble in the Blue Grass), Sea Hero, Alysheba (DQ'd as I recall), Secretariat's Wood, etc.

One prep race is not as important as how they are maturing as three year olds.

[joeya]

Since 1990, 14 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 1/8 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in less than :13 seconds... three of those who did not came very close (Barbaro, :13 flat, Silver Charm :13.2 and Sea Hero :13.1)

Since 1990, 15 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 1/4 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in :25.2 seconds or less ... the three who did not were Grindstone (:25.6), Silver Charm (:25.7) and Charismatic (:25.5)

Since 1990, 15 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 3/8 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in :38 seconds or less ... the three who did not were again Grindstone (:38.4), Silver Charm (:38.6) and Charismatic (:38.2)

[SMOO]

Since 1990, 14 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 1/8 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in less than :13 seconds... three of those who did not came very close (Barbaro, :13 flat, Silver Charm :13.2 and Sea Hero :13.1)

Since 1990, 15 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 1/4 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in :25.2 seconds or less ... the three who did not were Grindstone (:25.6), Silver Charm (:25.7) and Charismatic (:25.5)

Since 1990, 15 of 18 Derby winners ran the final 3/8 in their last 1 1/8 mile prep in :38 seconds or less ... the three who did not were again Grindstone (:38.4), Silver Charm (:38.6) and Charismatic (:38.2)

Thanks for the info! Any of this years crop qualify? :ThmbUp:

[joeya]

According to the Courier-Journal Data Track (http://www.courier-journal.com/datatrack), the Derby horses who meet all three of these requirements are:

Colonel John
Cowboy Cal
Monba
Recapturetheglory
Visionaire
Z Fortune
Z Humor

On the Derby bubble ...

Big Truck
Bob Black Jack
El Gato Malo
Halo Najib

Should note that Big Brown comes very close to qualifying (:13.0, :38.0 and :25.3)

[46zilzal]

EACH RACE IS DISTINCT, always have been, always will be.

[cj]

Synthetic races are run differently, so closing times are going to be misleading when comparing them to dirt.

[MNslappy]

Many Derby winners had less than stellar final preps before the big race. One prep race is not as important as how they are maturing as three year olds.

It depends on how you define "less than stellar." According to stats that X File posted, only 3 Derby winners in the past 46 years have finished worse than 3rd in their final prep.

[Semipro]

Synthetic races are run differently, so closing times are going to be misleading when comparing them to dirt.Exactly final times at SA and Fg just can't be compared without the speed bias considered.

[sam i am]

Synthetic races are run differently, so closing times are going to be misleading when comparing them to dirt.


I just did a quick little sample of SA 2 turn races on Syn. ( very, very rough)

the closing times are crazy.

here are the STAKES winners since MARCH last fraction ( i did this quick by hand) some older horses some 3 yr olds and some f&M

SA Handicap 1 1/4 25
Sham 1 1/8 35.3
SA Oaks (f) 1 1/16 30
Santa Marga (f) 1 1/8 34.2
San Felipe 1 1/16 29
Tokyo city 1 1/2 25.2
SA Derby 1 1/8 35


then I look at the last couple of days (alw, clm, what ever)

April 17th

1 1/16 30.1
1 1/16 29.2
1 1/16 30.3

April 19th

1 1/16 29.3


The main reason why Colonel John is at the status where he is is because of his closing punch... it seems to me that every winner at SA has that closing punch. cj's might be a little better, but 2nd choice in a 20 horse field???

I am leaning toward the other 2 SA horses (Gayego and BBJ) as of right now.

Am I wrong?

[46zilzal]

Last fraction???? it is only BUILT on the early pace and without considering them, these numbers are all but useless.

Walk, like the field did in the LA Derby, and you have enough left in the tank to fly home.

[jonnielu]

I just did a quick little sample of SA 2 turn races on Syn. ( very, very rough)

the closing times are crazy.

here are the STAKES winners since MARCH last fraction ( i did this quick by hand) some older horses some 3 yr olds and some f&M

SA Handicap 1 1/4 25
Sham 1 1/8 35.3
SA Oaks (f) 1 1/16 30
Santa Marga (f) 1 1/8 34.2
San Felipe 1 1/16 29
Tokyo city 1 1/2 25.2
SA Derby 1 1/8 35


then I look at the last couple of days (alw, clm, what ever)

April 17th

1 1/16 30.1
1 1/16 29.2
1 1/16 30.3

April 19th

1 1/16 29.3


The main reason why Colonel John is at the status where he is is because of his closing punch... it seems to me that every winner at SA has that closing punch. cj's might be a little better, but 2nd choice in a 20 horse field???

I am leaning toward the other 2 SA horses (Gayego and BBJ) as of right now.

Am I wrong?

Here is the calculation:

SA horse + 1/8 more in Kentucky = loss

jdl

[jonnielu]

Synthetic races are run differently, so closing times are going to be misleading when comparing them to dirt.

It's an interesting concept, what does time lead to anyway? I've never paid much attention to it. Back in the old days, I did notice that times at Calder were a couple of seconds slower then GP, I never did any comparing with Hialeah, but it seemed that the horses ran about the same, even on the old Calder Tartan strip.

jdl

[pandy]

Last fraction???? it is only BUILT on the early pace and without considering them, these numbers are all but useless.

Walk, like the field did in the LA Derby, and you have enough left in the tank to fly home.


Your comment makes sense but my experience has shown that horses with strong closing kicks, regardless of how you measure late speed, are potent threats in route races 9 furlongs or longer. If I had to pick one longshot angle for these races it would be to play longshots that have the best come-home times. Naturally if the pace is fast in the Derby, it benefits the horses that have recorded fast final quarters, but even if the pace is moderate a horse that finishes fast can still win with the right trip.

[46zilzal]

Your comment makes sense but my experience has shown that horses with strong closing kicks, regardless of how you measure late speed, are potent threats in route races 9 furlongs or longer. If I had to pick one longshot angle for these races it would be to play longshots that have the best come-home times.
Dr. William Quirin: "Speed is the universal track variant."

[46zilzal]

Come from behind inherent problems also from Dr. Quirin.

1) rider is NOT an active part of the pace and has to make a best guess as to what it is.

2) rider must move at exactly the right time (if he can)

3) rider is left to whatever path is available

4) Horse and rider have to have a clean trip devoid of too many traffic obstacles.


Otherwise come from behind horses would be lighting up the board all day long on the dirt and that just does NOT happen.

Up front you pick your trip, you pick your pace and they have to catch you. A big advantage.

[Bruddah]

Dr. William Quirin: "Speed is the universal track variant."

Zil, I am not sure how to interpret the quote from Dr. Quirin. I always read posts by certain members of this board. Yours is among them. Please expand your thoughts on the above and how Dr. Quirin meant this. Back in the late 70's and early 80's, I attended several forums Dr. Quirin gave. They helped my handicapping back then, tremendously. :ThmbUp:

Thanks

[46zilzal]

Zil, I am not sure how to interpret the quote from Dr. Quirin.

Early horses win more than they should, that's all he said. An entire chapter was dedicated to that idea in Winning at the Races.

[cj]

Zil, I am not sure how to interpret the quote from Dr. Quirin. I always read posts by certain members of this board. Yours is among them. Please expand your thoughts on the above and how Dr. Quirin meant this. Back in the late 70's and early 80's, I attended several forums Dr. Quirin gave. They helped my handicapping back then, tremendously. :ThmbUp:

Thanks

I believe the actual quote contains the word bias, not variant.

[46zilzal]

I believe the actual quote contains the word bias, not variant.
Correcto: Same idea.

[Bruddah]

The question/comment I have regarding the stats on closing times in Kentucky Derby preps, are these. Again more of a question and thought going through my head, at the same time.

1. these closing times seem to be Universal over approximately six or seven different dirt track surfaces. (Kentucky Derby preps at major tracks)

2. The closing times quoted were created by horses on the front end, pressing the pace and coming from behind. The same time(s) seem to be Universal no matter running style.

3. The closing times(s) seem to be related to the first three finishers of major Ky. Derby preps.

4. Now that Santa Anita and Keeneland have artificial surfaces, will this criteria(?) lose or gain credence on these surfaces.

Chime in with your thoughts and answers...Please

[cj]

My thought is the closing times will be overrated on synthetic surfaces. The horses generally go slow early in these races, so they should finish faster.

Here is an example. At Santa Anita, the average 1 1/16 mile winner runs the last 2.5 furlongs in 31.73 seconds. On dirt, on the same track, the average winner ran the last 2.5 furlongs in 33.04 seconds. Now, I don't think the horses suddenly became more talented. The nature of the surface determines when it is best to run fastest.

At 9f, it the last three furlongs on synthetics are run in 37.99 seconds. On dirt, it was 39.23 seconds. If I were going to compare these things, I would add 1.24 seconds to Colonel John's closing time in the SA Derby as an example.

[46zilzal]

Take the poly with a big grain of salt for reasons CJ has outlined. The nature of the skews the final fraction.

[Bruddah]

I value both of your posts with utmost respect.

However, this leads to another question in my mind. Last years KY Derby, how did horses running their last Derby prep on artificial surfaces and finishing 3rd or better finish in the Ky Derby. I seem to remember the top finishers in the Bluegrass [Artificial] running 1-2. Did their finishing times on Artificial surfaces convert using the same 1.24 second formula you propose?

Honest guys, one question answered, leads to another curious question. I really do appreciate your answers and perspectives.

Bruddah

[cj]

I am pretty sure Street Sense would have still been better than all the dirt horses even after adjusting. It is tough to say for Keeneland, because they not only went to polytrack they also removed banking.

[loveracing]

Nice Stats, here in one for you, a horse who was second in the stretch in their last race before the derby. Check the derby winners from 1993 till 2004, seems good to watch. This also is good to use in the Preakness, but for the Belmont look for a horse who was third in the stretch in their prior race, this is helpful.