Harness Racing.....Tips, Tricks & Angles....

[LottaKash]

Let's face it folks, when it comes to INFORMATION, the T-Bred guys have it all over us.......

They have powerful, full featured software, that will tell them when the horse took it's last B.M.....I mean, they have all sorts of trainer angles, pedigrees, pace and velocity, odds line models, etc.....and all this information is at their finger tips.......

And us lowly Harness Guys, what do we have ?.....The only effecitve software, that I have seen is "Pandy's" Harness Diamond System.....His pace, speed and velocity ratings are top notch.......But, I have so many hard earned angles and information, that I have accumulated thru the years, and yet it is isolated from the software..

So here we are, stuck with what we've got, just a pencil & paper way of doing things, trying to arrive at our contenders and final selections.......

Since it seems that is all we've got, it might be nice, with so many good players in this section, that we all share with each other,a little bit of our learning.......

For me, If I care to share some of my knowledge with others, I am not in the least worried that you may hurt me at the betting windows, as there are so many different tracks that we are all playing at different times of day and week....so what would be the harm in sharing......

In this vein, this is why I started this thread, in hopes that others will share as well.....I think it quite appropriate, that we may all have a place to do this, since other posts are so off topic and, in time, fall by the wayside and get lost.......

This thread could sort of be an ongoing thing, a dumping ground for your thoughts, other than your selections......

Let's make this work....

humbly,

[LottaKash]

I'll start the ball rolling....

AN ANGLE.........it occured on sat. 4/19/08.....

This angle has to do with Mike Simons 12%, a very capable driver......

Simons was listed in 7-races on this card......

4-R... #8..Kurt Rustler...fin out of the money
7-R...#7..McNally..........won paid $54.80,41.80,11.40 w/
#l & 1a, the ex-$550.60 and the tri
was $635.20.......
8-R...#1 Sweet Temptation...out of money
10R..## I Think I Love You......fin 3d...
11R..#3 Magnum ...........out of money
12R..#8 Glory Bee...........won $18.80
13R..#2 Cloudy Heighs....out of money
14R..#3 Real Mystic........out of money

So what is the angle ?

The RED RACE, Mike Simons OWNS this Horse, and his trainer is Gal Wrubel ...this trainer had Simons driving the #1 horse in the 8th race......and yet in this 7th Race Kevin Sizer (16%) was listed to drive from the get go and now has won with his horse.....tonite....

Do you see it, Simons, a capable driver, is listed in 7-races tonite, except one of them, the horse he owns, is being driven by another Very Capable Driver.....Yikes.....

So, this horse gets out just past the 3/8ths, goes first over the rest of the way, takes the lead by the top of the lane and coasts home to a safe win.....
.
Incidently, you will not see this at the T-Breds, and that is, lowly as we are, to our advantage

It pays to be alert to ALL driver and trainer CHANGES....these things don't happen very often, but as you can see, given the payout, it is worth looking for, and you just won't see it at the bigger tracks......

enjoy, humbly......

[andicap]

I don't play the trotters anymore but I did a long time ago and actually had a system published in American Turf Monthly, the only harness system the publication has ever published -- at least in recent memory.

Anyway, the crux of it was on half-mile tracks to follow horses who started from the 7th or 8th post positions if they made any kind of move in the race AND they were moving to at least the 5th post position. I would also use horses who made strong moves from post six on half mile tracks like Yonkers that have very short stretches.
The other provision was the driver could not stink.

If I was looking at that system today I might consider an odds minimum or some elementary pace analysis. Did the horse go for the lead and today he faces an easier pace?

You don't get a ton of bets but it's an angle.

[harcapper]

Kash,

My thoughts today will be on drivers and their numbers as they relate to handicapping.

As a top driver at a track will usually have more then one choice of horses to drive in any given race, it stands to reason that a top drivers numbers will look even better over time then the drivers that drive less often or are less comitted to working 7 days per week and traveling to do double headers most everyday. A drivers numbers are a combination of the following factors (not necessarily in order).

1) The drivers ability in general.
2) Which trainers use this driver.
3) The drivers loyalty to lack of loyalty to trainers.
4) The drivers ability to know and handicap the horses he is listed on after the draw.

I am never afraid to fire some bullets at a percieved lesser driver when the conditions are right because too many cappers think that a driver can get a horse home first. Top drivers are almost always an underlay and the "lesser" drivers are overlays.

Har

This thread could sort of be an ongoing thing, a dumping ground for your thoughts, other than your selections......Let's make this work....
humbly,

[LottaKash]

Thx andicap for your input, but it's kind of 101'ish for most of us here.....There are some sharp cookies that need to share more of their really good stuff here....:cool:

best,

[Sinner369]

Kash.....to me you are looking for factors that are not there.

Handicapping is just the common factors that we all know.......shape of horse, driver, track bias, positioning, horse's form cycle, horse's racing style, speed, pace, trip ...........etc!


The only factor that one cannot readily teach or learn is judgement. The "Decision Making factor" when it comes to choosing one horse over another. A few has the right knack to choose the right horse......most of us keep trying........ myself included!


Sinner

[LottaKash]

Kash.....to me you are looking for factors that are not there.

Handicapping is just the common factors that we all know.......shape of horse, driver, track bias, positioning, horse's form cycle, horse's racing style, speed, pace, trip ...........etc!
Sinner

Hi Sinner, I beg to differ with you on your contention, that there are factors that are not there.......I believe they are ,and I put them to good use them all the time......

Beating my head against the wall for some forty odd years, using the factors that are common to all, has led me to gamlers ruin, more times than I can count......

In this spirit, I have learned to read between the lines, and dig a little deeper......I have fewer plays and less action, but with the information that I have gleened over the years, my bottom line has improved tremendously, and I enjoy this game, now, more than ever......It is still a tuff and perplexing go, to be sure.......But, I think that is why we keep coming back for more....

I have known players that make their way thru their lives, depending only on playing the ponies for a living......they do exist....of this I am sure......

For me tho, I have given up on pursuing that road, but now in my retirement, my immediate goal is to supplemnet my income, as best as can be.....and enjoy it.......

All and any information that we can get may be useful in trying to beat a race......

In a recent post in this thread, I pointed out a circumstance that had occured just recently, an angle if you will........Well, while it was out there for all to see, I imagine not too many people saw what I saw...heck the horse paid $54.80.......so you see, the information was out there, and the common crowd missed it..........

Sinner, I believe your are sincere and well meant, but I also believe that, your may not be as far along as you may think.....How could I know this ?.....because I think wherever your are now, I've probably been there.....I'm old....

Basically ,what I am inferrring is that, I am trying to coax some of the other Harness Members to share some of their, between the lines observations.........I think the problem here, is that, personal ideas and interpretations are viewed by many as proprietary, and most are reluctant to share that the tip, trick or angle, that they have found to have some value .....

For me, I have had some hand-holding in my lifetime, and it was well appreciated, and I just wanted to give a little something back, especially to the newer players, who are struggling to figure this all out......They are the future of racing, and given the current state of the tracks, we need all the new enthusiastic blood we can get.....Additionally I don't purport to be a know-it-all, and I am willing to use any and all information that may have some impact value when added to my personal arsenal of ammo........

Hey, the more you know.........

humby,

[badcompany]

I consider myself somewhat of an expert on 1/2 mile, speed favoring harness tracks. IMO, there are three types of bettable races, the rest are crapshoots that will come down luck, and, you won't have enough of that luck to clear the takeout.

Bettable race types:

1. The Line Up - A horse from the middle of the field, usually the 4 post, takes the lead, and the positions stay the same around the track for the whole race. The value is in betting the triple, cold 4-1-2, as the exacta will pay peanuts. Note: depending on the strength of the horse in the 1 post, it could come in 1-4-2, if the 1 retakes.

2. The Sweep - There is a speed dual up front, with none of the horses involved being very strong. Often the second over horse will sweep the field with the 3rd over being right behind. A cold exacta, here, is the play as the price will usually be pretty good. The result is often in numerical order 5-6, 6-7 etc.

3. Pick Up the Pieces - An extremely strong horse goes right to the top and the horse in the pocket eventually can't keep up. The strong horse draws away and a horse from the middle of the pack picks up second. The second place horse is usually driven by an experienced, patient driver who doesn't win alot but gets alot of seconds and thirds (eg. Mike Forte). There's usually some value, here, as a lot of dumb money will be bet on the line-up number.

-----------

What you do is buy the sportseye and handicap all the 1/2 mile tracks, looking for these type of races, and putting a big "X" through the other "unbettable" races. You can usually make yourself a pretty nice card. Most of the tracks will have 2 or 3 bettable races. The best time to try this system is in August as many of the 1/2 mile speed tracks are open (Ocean, Batavia, Yonkers, Saratoga Harness, Harrington) and there's some dumb vacationer money in the pools.
Frankly, betting harness racing most of the year is a losing proposition, but, this small window is a time when a sharp bettor can make some money. Of course, having the discipline to not bet the "unbettables" is crucial.

[LottaKash]

Thx,Badco.......good stuff......I will review your take further, and ponder on it.......

btw, many years ago, I lived in Manhattan, for a short while on St. Mark's Place.....miss those Hippie Days......haha

best,

[mrroyboy]

This is very good stuff. I read this forum to learn as much as I can about handicapping. Thanks Lotta Kash" You have the right idea.

[LottaKash]

I'm sure some or at least most of you at one time or another, or always, look at the odds of a horse in his last or last few races......But, do you give it any meaning or have you found a way to put it to good use, in your handicapping ???

I have, and many times knowing the meaning of the odds, will help you break a tie in a very contentious race, or sometimes it will even be the main reason for a play......

Have you ever wished you could get into the trainer's head and find out what, his intentions on race-day are ??? ...

Well we can't and are not allowd to know all of his/her thinking, but in one particular area, we can know something, and that area is many times, the odds of a horse in his last few races....Many owner's and trainers love to bet their horses and when they do, it shows, and is out there for all to see......they can't hide it.......it is a tipoff of what they may be up to.............and let's face it folks, we need any and all of the help we can get..........
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Firstly, You MUST be a competent handicapper to fully utilize what I am about to demonstrate.......Knowing, what I will tell you, may only get you into trouble, if it is not properly incorporated into sane and truthful handicapping.......Still sometimes, some of this will work all by itself, and you will be safe to use it in those situations.........
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The Whole object of this angle is to find horses who were bet in situations where the crowd wouldn't normally bet....In any or all of these situations, the crowd is unlikely to bet a horse to low odds...they just don't see a horse that has, made this drastic a change worth betting on....It is True, and I have been utilizing and refining it for a few years now......it is in these situations, that it is usually the trainer and his connections who are talking.......and pays very well to listen and interpret the signals correctly.......

The following situations are the best places to make use of this angle...........

When a horse ships to a new track....and in his 1st start at the new track is bet down to 5/1 or lower and shows some moves or good speed/quarters....and/or has a good reason for a loss....
..
when a horse moves up in class......and it's odds are the same or lower than in his previous race in the lower class...or alternately 5/1 or lower......and in the higher new class, performs well or had a good excuse for a loss.....
when a horse is coming off of a layoff... and in his first start back is bet down to 5/1 or lower.....or 7/1 or lower, if in his previous starts, before the layoff, his odds were very high.....and he performs well and shows a desire to go forward in this first race back.
when a horse is making his first start of the year...Same thing as a layoff horse......this is especially useful for 2yo's and 3yo's....
when a horse is coming off a quailfying race.....same thing as 3 & 4
when a horse is changing from a conditioned race to a claiming race or the reverse......there are a lot of what-ifs , when it comes to this change in classificatioins.....generally I look for a very well bet, say 3/1 or lower to reinforce the trainers intentions here, and because the switch may also affect the raising or lowering of the purse, it is also a grey area...but low odds, obviiously are saying something, but we do not want it to be the crowd talking, but the trainer..........
when a hose shows a lack-luster performance(s) at high odds and in his next start, gets banged to the 7/1 and below range...and perfoms well and shows some energy expenditure in that bet-down race.......well in this case, you had better believe what you see, as it may be short-lived and you may miss it........
note (these numbers got messed up somehow and I don't know how to undo it.....there are only 7 items)
Now of all of the 7 listed #'s 1 + 2 have the most impact value......but do not think that the others are underpowered, as when you study these situations for awhile, you will begin to see that you have new insight,......and you will only improve your bottom line by their judicious utilization....and they have their place in the thoroughbred world as well......
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On Sat. 5/2/08...I didn't have any time to do any serious handicapping for the Meadowlands........but, I did mange to get to see the races after all....but, I was playing catch up all night long, because I like to go over each and every horse in every race, with a fine toothed comb, in an effort to not miss, any one important change or thing that can spell a lottakash....

But happily two situations popped up on tonite's card, and I will mention them now, so that you will see the power of these types of situations........So, go and get your M1 program and follow along........( I made a few bucks on these two races...and you could've too )

3d Race #8 Art's Day, is an excellent example of a bet in a higher new class........

He was off since Jan 08 and on 4/3, He ran a nice even qualifier with good last 1/4 of 28.......
On 4/10...In his first start back was entered in $20K claimer, went off at almost 21/1 and ran a great race being parked most of the mile from the 7-hole and was 9th at the top of the stretch, and picked up 4 more horse to get 5th, a very nice first start..........Now here is the payoff part...
On 4/25, as they thought so much of his performance they upped him in class to a $25K claimer, and this without a win, and here is the kicker, He was bet down to 4.80/1, well they were very aggressive in that 2d start, and blasted for the lead, and got shuffled to 3d thruout the mile, but he was keeping up nicely, 1:22.1 and finished his mile a respectable 4th in 1:51.1 a fantastice 2d start......this horse is fast and fit.....and the Trainer was yelling at you to bet his horse. Did you have it ?.........he Paid $15.00 to win and the exacta was a healthy $198.40.......He had a TM-SR of 92which was as good or better than most of these......that's it............
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4th Race...The General ...fits into this race so well as it loaded with no form, slow horses, a perfect spot for this type of play, in another race with the same purse, and a field of more formful or faster horses, this angle may not have been as powerful as it was in this contest...but, each race is different and you have to size it up correctly, and in this case, the difficulty, was taken out of the equation.......

After his race on 4/5 there was a trainer change to Delvy Llopez's barn, mabybe a private purchase or the old owners just got pissed at the old trainer, who knows, who cares, the fact is, it is now a new trainer.......and in that 4/5 race he was in a $10K claimer and was bet to 2.40/1 and ran a semi-front runnig decent third.......

On 4/19 is boosted immediately, by the new trainer to a $15K claimer, now GET THIS, he is POUNDED to 3/5 and completely demolished his field, drawing off to a 3-3/4 length win in a new recent Top TM-SR of 92......

Now tonite he is in for nw6,500 L/6 sts.......a change of classificatiions, claimer to Conditiioned as well as a change of tracks......Now in this field of nobody's , the Trainer once again is Yelling at you to play his horse...I won't ask this time.....haha.......He won and paid $9.80 and the exacta came back to the tune of $110.20.......His Tm-SR of 92 is better than just about every horse in here........

Well that's it....Enjoy.........

humbly,

[mrroyboy]

Very good stuff as usual Lotta Kash.I will look for them tonites Meadowlands Card.

Anyway here's a long shot play for The Kentucky Derby

Visionaire
No 8 20-1 on the ML

Not a great bet but a shot at a price.

[Stick]

Good stuff LK. I know a guy at the track who rights all horses down that he thinks have $ on them for possible bets in future weeks.

[LottaKash]

FWIW...those numbers are the real deal...and this line of thinking works at all tracks......I use them for real in my day to day search for the very best spots......this is one of the main things that I am on the prowl for........:jump:

best,