Ability x picks $130.20 winner today in Keenelands 4th race

[Stumblefoot]

It also picked 4 nice winners yesterday at Gulfstream Park...They paid $11.60..$35.00..$25.60 and $27.20...Think I am going on vacation

[dartman51]

It also picked 4 nice winners yesterday at Gulfstream Park...They paid $11.60..$35.00..$25.60 and $27.20...Think I am going on vacation

I guess it's a dumb question......but, what is ABILITY X???:confused:

[FlyinLate]

I guess it's a dumb question......but, what is ABILITY X???:confused:

Sounds to me like a lame attempt at a plug for his software.

[ryesteve]

A better question is, how does Ability-X "pick" anything, since it's not at all a black box.

[jonnielu]

It also picked 4 nice winners yesterday at Gulfstream Park...They paid $11.60..$35.00..$25.60 and $27.20...Think I am going on vacation

I had hoped that you would find some value in the switch, and I am happy that you have come to understand the ratings so well that that one jumped out at you. How did you like the 6th, that number 5 had not raced in almost two years, his paddock presence made him an Ability-X stickout, and the warmup was as solid as it gets for stable effort. He ran as well as his rating indicated, I would be annoyed that he got nailed by a neck, if the #3 wasn't another Ability-X stickout.

#7 in the seventh ran a beautiful race also, I wish the odds had been better, but #1 in the ninth made up for it ( thank goodness that I threw the #7 into the super). Made up for the paltry 2 - 1 scrapings from the #1 in the 5th too.

And what the hell is everyone complaining about anyway, a live favorite (7-5)won the 3rd, of course he was the top rated by Ability-X too.

But, damn it, we missed on the 2nd, of course that was right after the first race super, that we did get.

And, I was out there by the saddling area thru the whole weekend, and not nobody came up and explained the poly to me.

Ability-X -Keeneland 4/20/2008 Sunday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.
1st - 7fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

203 4 99 3 302
198 1 96 10 294
210 7 95 4 305
230 5 91 12 321

208 3 88 2.5 296
264 6 84 4.5 348
229 2 84 4 313


1,4,3,7

2nd -6fD

# POST/ErlSpd / ML/Comp

323 7 99 5 422
357 6 99 3 456
322 1 95 8 417
332 5 94 4 426
316 2 93 5 409

305 4 90 8 395
299 3 88 2.5 387


1,2,3,7







3rd - 7fD

# POST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

273 1 96 6 369
300 6 96 4 396
274 5 95 4.5 369
270 8 93 2.5 363
393 3 92 50 485
290 2 91 5 381

250 4 90 5 340
282 7 89 20 371
283 9 81 8 364

1,4,5,8



4th - 6fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

327 5 97 30 424
328 10 96 2.5 424

308 9 95 6 403
322 7 94 15 416
304 6 93 10 397
147 1 0 12 147
137 2 0 15 137
156 3 0 6 156
295 4 0 5 295
131 8 0 15 131
238 11 0 4 238

5,7,9,10 [ 4,11 ]


5th - 8.5fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

48 6 95 6 143
99 4 94 20 193
89 1 90 4.5 179

93 7 87 8 180
94 9 86 5 180
93 5 86 4 179
107 3 85 5 192
74 8 85 3.5 159
112 2 85 12 197

{ 8,5,9,7,1,4,6 }



6th -8.5fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

138 4 94 10 232
68 6A 94 3.5 162
55 5 93 12 148
58 1A 92 2.5 150
68 7 90 1.4 158
88 2 89 6 177

102 3 81 8 183
113 1 80 2.5 193


1,3,6,7

7th -9fTurf

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

100 6 94 8 194
94 10 92 8 186

68 5 89 5 157
53 4 87 2 140
85 8 86 10 171
120 1 85 30 205
91 7 84 4.5 175
99 2 80 5 179
97 3 79 20 176
125 9 0 12 125


4 {1,2,3,6,7}





8th - 9fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

88 4 90 12 178
84 3 89 10 173

45 2 85 0.8 130
72 7 85 5 157
79 6 85 10 164
68 5 83 4 151
69 1 83 8 152


2 { 1,3,4,5 }

9th - 6fD

# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

465 7 103 20 568
417 1 96 15 513
299 8 94 2 393
285 2 90 8 375
410 10 90 20 500
145 3 0 12 145
277 4 0 5 277
133 5 0 12 133
164 6 0 10 164
420 9 0 6 420
131 11 0 5 131


8,4,6,7,9,2







A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.

jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)

1st - All four of these should run together with #4 having some advantage on staying on top, have to wonder what the fav's limits are though.

2nd - The ratings around 320 seem to be sitting in the right early speed spots, question the fav., for being at the limit, post is good, if he goes with 1,2,4 he may be able to outrun them, or they might be able to push him into folding. #1 would look most likely for doing this. And is good value

3rd - Fit for the distance could put #4 on top, #1 looks pretty for going W to W if he can handle 7f.

4th - Five looks like a gift from heaven with that rating, and right in line with the fav. too. The high rated firsters are the question for messing up bank deposits here, #4 has a nice post here.

I was really sorry that I had to cut my analysis short, but an emergency came up because of a bad data file for GP and this goes to seminar students that have been following the KEE meet with me since day one. I had hoped that they would do okay on their own today, since everyday at KEE has been this way.

Next Saturday, I move my gear to Churchill, and the seminar will continue until July 6th. I don't expect many changes because Kentucky racing is the best, dirt, poly, or grass, 2 - 1 or 62 - 1, Ability-X is the rating that means something... everytime.

If you are at KEE this coming Friday, come see me, I'm not nearly as mean as I look.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Sounds to me like a lame attempt at a plug for his software.

I don't offer any software.

When the KEE meet wraps next Friday, I'd like to send you the day by day analysis and re-cap for the whole meet so that you can look it over. Would that be okay with you.

jdl

[Burls]

9th - 9fD Bluegrass Stakes

# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

16 12 98 6 114
92 8 95 50 187
127 5 95 15 222
61 6 92 6 153
42 9 91 30 133
59 3 91 15 150
44 11 91 15 135
88 2 91 50 179
54 1 90 4 144
65 4 88 30 153
46 7 88 1 134
73 10 87 20 160




9th- The big show, Visionaire has ability and speed, winning this is within his limits shown in the last, the post may kill him though. Pyro, and Big Truck will show us how much heart they have today, because they will be unable to lurk very much. If Cool Coal Man can come up with the coolest of runs, he has the ability to work to the front. This is a horserace, we will see these run to their limits today, and this will help us on Derby day. I believe these five will show at the wire within 1 length. The measurement of heart will be the difference. They are all solid, on this factor. I like CCM and Pyro, they and Big Truck have hearts that we have not yet seen the full measure of. I look for a repeat of last years finish, and don't be surprised to see #9, Medjool in this stretch run.

jdl

Results of the 2008 Bluegrass Stakes:

1st - Monba
2nd - Cowboy Cal
3rd - Kentucky Bear
4th - Stevil
5th - Visionaire
6th - Miner's Claim
7th - Halo Najib
8th - Medjool
9th - Cool Coal Man
10th - Pyro
11th - Big Truck
12th - Stone Bird

Were these 5 horses 'Ability-X Stickouts'?
If your Ability-X Handicapping System yields picks like these, why should a handicapper take it seriously?
How often does this sort of thing happen with your Ability-X Handicapping System?
This is the real question.

[Chris Longshot]

Don't understand the "ability x" myself but that's just because I'm learning disabled as a whole lol, regardless of the results, I admire any capper that takes such a strong stand as to breakdown a race that throughly and be confident in his opinion. As for the bluegrass example, its hard to judge any race run on synthetic surfaces, even seasoned professionals have said the race is a throwout, I guess until the derby is run, we will see if this opinion is validated, hopefully this synthetic track "fad" ends soon, I can't bear to watch anymore.

[jonnielu]

Results of the 2008 Bluegrass Stakes:

1st - Monba
2nd - Cowboy Cal
3rd - Kentucky Bear
4th - Stevil
5th - Visionaire
6th - Miner's Claim
7th - Halo Najib
8th - Medjool
9th - Cool Coal Man
10th - Pyro
11th - Big Truck
12th - Stone Bird

Were these 5 horses 'Ability-X Stickouts'?
If your Ability-X Handicapping System yields picks like these, why should a handicapper take it seriously?
How often does this sort of thing happen with your Ability-X Handicapping System?
This is the real question.

Yes, and 5 of them still are. Three of them still stickout for the Derby.

Ability-X doesn't yield picks, it yields an accurate measurement of ability.

It is just my opinion, but I would recommend to the handicapper, that he/she take seriously any consistency that can be observed.

The winner of any race is an Ability-X stickout about 90% of the time. And, it is a fine question to ask. I have posted the re-cap that my seminar folks got form BlueGrass Saturday on my website so that PA can avoid any possible copyright issues in posting it here.

http://HorsePlayerU.com/bluegrass.htm

If you look over the whole day, you might see what I mean by this being an odd result. Thank you, for your consideration.

[ryesteve]

Ability x picks $130.20 winner today in Keenelands 4th race. It also picked 4 nice winners yesterday at Gulfstream Park...how does Ability-X "pick" anything, since it's not at all a black box.Ability-X doesn't yield picks, it yields an accurate measurement of ability.
I'm glad we agree on that.


I have posted the re-cap that my seminar folks got form BlueGrass Saturday on my website so that PA can avoid any possible copyright issues in posting it here.If it's your material, and you posted it, why would there be a copyright issue?


The winner of any race is an Ability-X stickout about 90% of the time.This seems extraordinarily optimistic. Can you attach a definition to what a "stickout" is, and see how close the data supports this, or is this more of a subjective determination?

[jonnielu]

I'm glad we agree on that.


If it's your material, and you posted it, why would there be a copyright issue?


This seems extraordinarily optimistic. Can you attach a definition to what a "stickout" is, and see how close the data supports this, or is this more of a subjective determination?

The results are a copy of TSN/Twinspires fast results, some people get uptight about carbon copies of published materials.

A stickout is an horse whose ability sticks out in relation to the favorite. The favorite is always considered a stickout.

You can check results on my website for a day, a week, or a month to see how the stickouts do for consistency. Stickouts are also identified strictly from the ratings with no handicapping at all.

jdl

[ryesteve]

A stickout is an horse whose ability sticks out
I was hoping for something a bit more definitive than that :)

[FlyinLate]

I don't offer any software.

When the KEE meet wraps next Friday, I'd like to send you the day by day analysis and re-cap for the whole meet so that you can look it over. Would that be okay with you.

jdl


My apologies. I didn't know this was a program from a paid advertiser. Congrats on your success and sure you can e-mail me the analysis re-cap if you want :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

I was hoping for something a bit more definitive than that :)

Sorry Steve,

I suppose what you want to know is all of the mathematical algorithyms, atomic weight, and molecular structure of what is behind the rating, and it just isn't needed. Sure, you can learn what the ratings mean, and how they will effect the race today, if you like to get involved to that extent. You can add enough analysis, based on your knowledge and experience to make your eyes bleed and your head spin, if you want. And, that can be very useful excercise, sometimes I analyze it to death myself, but, I like to have time to chat up the girls, and shoot the s##t with the guys too.

Betting on horses on the basis of Ability-X ratings can be as simple as taking the 12-1 outsider with the same rating as the favorite, or as complex as analyzing the be-jeezus out of every factor until you are calling the finish order up to 5 deep half of the time. What ever suits you and your own make up.

All that I have ever said about Ability-X is that it will enable anyone to win consistently no matter what their level of skill as a horseplayer as soon as they understand that the ratings reflect the ability of the horse to run.

I understand the difficulty in believing that something you believe to be very complex, can be so simple, and I admit that I don't really know how to properly address your issues with what you believe, and the ideas that I am presenting being at odds. But, in the past there was something that I also could not believe until I decided to change my mind in order to find what was true, it was just a saying that some people throw around.

"You will see it.... when you believe it."

It wasn't that long ago, that I believed it to be impossible to have a meaningful rating that could see through odds, or allow you to have a reasonable chance at winning any kind of race.

jdl

jdl

[ryesteve]

Sorry Steve,

I suppose what you want to know is all of the mathematical algorithyms, atomic weight, and molecular structure of what is behind the rating
No, that's not at all what I want. Doesn't make a difference to me. I just want to know if you can define a "stick out". Saying, "A stick out is a horse that sticks out" doesn't quantify it. And if you can't quantify it, there's no way to prove or disprove that 90% of races are won by "stick outs"

[bigdawginva]

I'm a current purchaser of this service (actually it was for the SF pool but that's another story). I'll refrain from sharing my thoughts and opnions publically other than to say factually:

1. Since I haven't won a single bet and seem to be the only one incapable of winning a bet using these numbers I've concluded I'm a moron.

2. After a few days I decided not to get the emails with the ratings anymore. I was burning up my $3,000 bankroll I accrued from Colonial Downs last year. Obviously I don't have the skills to guess which horse to pick from 4-8 "stickouts". I'm not intelligent enough to figure out that a 317 at 30-1 is more probable to win than a 320 at 8-1.

3. With 4-8 stickouts a race it's not hard to believe one of them would hit 90% of the time. If I placed a win or an exacta box bet picking my own 4-8 horses every race I have no doubt I'd hit 9 of 10 races. I believe most could. The issue becomes picking the one or two of the 4-8 "stickouts" or outlasting the chalk until a 15 or 60-1 hits.

4. Luckily I stopped using these just in time to have $100 on the Blue Grass winner and crushing the Lexington Ex, Tri and Super on my own.

[FlyinLate]

I'm a current purchaser of this service (actually it was for the SF pool but that's another story). I'll refrain from sharing my thoughts and opnions publically other than to say factually:

1. Since I haven't won a single bet and seem to be the only one incapable of winning a bet using these numbers I have concluded I'm a moron.

2. After a few days I decided not to get the emails with the ratings anymore. I was burning up my $3,000 bankroll I accrued from Colonial Downs last year. Obviously I don't have the skills to guess which horse to pick from 4-8 "stickouts". I'm not intelligent enough to figure out that a 317 is more probable to win than a 320.

3. With 4-8 stickouts a race it's not hard to believe one of them would hit 90% of the time. If I placed a win or an exacta box bet picking my own 4-8 horses every race I have no doubt I'd hit 9 of 10 races. I believe most could. The issue becomes picking the one or two of the 4-8 "stickouts" or outlasting the chalk until a 15 or 60-1 hits.

4. Luckily I stopped using these just in time to have $100 on the Blue Grass winner and crushing the Lexington Ex, Tri and Super on my own.

Why would someone of your obvious skill level purchase such a program? :rolleyes:

[bigdawginva]

I wanted to see if the SF pool was as good as advertised.

[jonnielu]

I'm a current purchaser of this service (actually it was for the SF pool but that's another story). I'll refrain from sharing my thoughts and opnions publically other than to say factually:

1. Since I haven't won a single bet and seem to be the only one incapable of winning a bet using these numbers I've concluded I'm a moron.

2. After a few days I decided not to get the emails with the ratings anymore. I was burning up my $3,000 bankroll I accrued from Colonial Downs last year. Obviously I don't have the skills to guess which horse to pick from 4-8 "stickouts". I'm not intelligent enough to figure out that a 317 at 30-1 is more probable to win than a 320 at 8-1.

3. With 4-8 stickouts a race it's not hard to believe one of them would hit 90% of the time. If I placed a win or an exacta box bet picking my own 4-8 horses every race I have no doubt I'd hit 9 of 10 races. I believe most could. The issue becomes picking the one or two of the 4-8 "stickouts" or outlasting the chalk until a 15 or 60-1 hits.

4. Luckily I stopped using these just in time to have $100 on the Blue Grass winner and crushing the Lexington Ex, Tri and Super on my own.

Well... I'm enlightened

[jonnielu]

2. After a few days I decided

You are in day to day, everyday until CD closes July 6th. Perhaps this is a poorly made decision.


not to get the emails with the ratings anymore. I was burning up my $3,000 bankroll I accrued from Colonial Downs last year.

A tidy sum, many people are also happy with their $400 a wk jobs, and I'm sure they look forward to getting there social security checks when that is over.

Obviously I don't have the skills to guess which horse to pick from 4-8 "stickouts". I'm not intelligent enough to figure out that a 317 at 30-1 is more probable to win than a 320 at 8-1.

If you were putting out a ballot box on this idea, my vote would be that you are in possession of more intelligence then what is required. But, it becomes difficult to apply concious intelligence when you close your eyes. It is true, that your sub-concious can work quite furiously in this state, but, if you have programmed it to look forward to your social security check, that is about all it will do for you.

It took me 25 years to tune my mind to the point that I could do what you describe above, and I started with the dis-satisfaction of winning with reasonable consistency at 4-1. And to get it done, I had to remove the form from my face for a full year. I'd only give 2 - 5, that you could do it in 3 months.

3. With 4-8 stickouts a race it's not hard to believe one of them would hit 90% of the time. If I placed a win or an exacta box bet picking my own 4-8 horses every race I have no doubt I'd hit 9 of 10 races. I believe most could. The issue becomes picking the one or two of the 4-8 "stickouts" or outlasting the chalk until a 15 or 60-1 hits.

I don't know where the 4 - 8 part comes from, there are usually 4 sound contenders, but the racing secretary at KEE is sharp enough, and well equipped to throw 6 at you quite frequently. Where do you think he gets the four horse photo finishes, and the boxcar supers from? Look here, not at the poly.

If you could find some respect for this fact, and if you could see it plainly pointed out to you in any race that has 6 stickouts, you could opt for the idiot's way out, as I have frequently suggested and done. Ability-X has pointed to at least a half dozen horses so far at this meet that you could have made a killing on betting them across. From memory, $44.00 to place, $32.00 to win twice, $34.00 to place, $45.80 to win, $15.80 to show, $132.00 to win.

On any one of these days, a master of money management would be walking out with over $3,000 in profit. But, the bad news is, that to become a master of money mangement you will have to gain a great deal of experience that can only come from winning. The largest obstruction in this pursuit is always yourself. The reason that I know it, is because I am my own biggest obstruction.


4. Luckily I stopped using these just in time to have $100 on the Blue Grass winner and crushing the Lexington Ex, Tri and Super on my own.

If you were around for a few days, then you might remember the 10th on the first Saturday. There was only one stickout left after the scratches, and I pointed out to you in my analysis that there were 7 other horses very tightly rated in that race. The single stickout #9 nosed out the win in a four horse photo, that super paid $49,000. The idiot's way out was to simply put the #9 on top. A year and a half ago, I didn't get grass.

There have been no less then 3 races during this meet where there has been only 5 stickout contenders, all three supers were cover by those 5, average - $13,500.

I guess you had put it down by now, but in the second week, I pointed out in my analysis that two races that day would be good spots to look at the super with the 6 stickouts in the races. I also pointed out that at least one of them would be big, if not both. The bigger one was $32,000.

Certainly, this can not get by you for another 2 months.

jdl

[jonnielu]

If you were around for a few days, then you might remember the 10th on the first Saturday. There was only one stickout left after the scratches, and I pointed out to you in my analysis that there were 7 other horses very tightly rated in that race. The single stickout #9 nosed out the win in a four horse photo, that super paid $49,000. The idiot's way out was to simply put the #9 on top. A year and a half ago, I didn't get grass.

There have been no less then 3 races during this meet where there has been only 5 stickout contenders, all three supers were cover by those 5, average - $13,500.

I guess you had put it down by now, but in the second week, I pointed out in my analysis that two races that day would be good spots to look at the super with the 6 stickouts in the races. I also pointed out that at least one of them would be big, if not both. The bigger one was $32,000.

Certainly, this can not get by you for another 2 months.

jdl

To re-iterate: KEE 4/24/08 - Wednesday

Serial # Track Race Wager Amount Bet Return Won/Lost
35347751146741 Keeneland # 1 $10 Win/Place 8 $20.00 $22.00 +$2.00
05811686225289 Keeneland # 2 $10 Win/Place 8 $20.00 $0.00 -$20.00
33177389540257 Keeneland # 3 $10 Win 4 $10.00 $44.00 +$34.00
10079276926313 Keeneland # 4 $10 Win/Place 3 $20.00 $0.00 -$20.00
08065085161745 Keeneland # 5 $10 Win/Place 7 $20.00 $93.00 +$73.00
28932970091044 Keeneland # 6 $10 Win/Place 1 $20.00 $419.00 +$399.00
19408086319852 Keeneland # 7 $10 Win/Place 2 $20.00 $0.00 -$20.00
79734418425033 Keeneland # 8 $10 Win/Place 4 $20.00 $0.00 -$20.00
69811098180883 Keeneland # 9 $10 Win/Place 5 $20.00 $0.00 -$20.00
Totals: $170.00 $578.00 +$408.00
Pending Wagers: $0.00


jdl