Lexington-Behindatthebar

[Niko]

Maybe someone can help me out. Other than being trained by Pletcher who wins more than his fair share of derby preps, why 5-1 on behindathebar.

Pretty competitive field, low on numbers from the 2 services I use, nothing to make me see why he's 5-1 and wins other than Pletcher.

Did he show up strong on any other numbers? Was it just Pletcher?

[JustRalph]

I didn't like him either............although I was interested when Flores took the flight. He ran pretty well on the poly......Flores flys in...........I guess that was what they were betting................

[Tom]

He certainly was not that impressive on figures. Several had a lot better thanhe did. I chalk it up a very bad field and his turn came up. A yawner.

[DJofSD]

In a race that set up for on other-than-early runner, Behindthebar was the 2nd best sustained pace horse. Best closer was the show horse, Riley Tucker. However my numbers indicated he'd be much farther back than the winner. But, as it turned out, Riley layed closer to the pace than did Behindthe bar. And Samba Rooster coming moderately close to winning it "flag fall to that's all" was not a surprise.

[BoldEye]

Maybe someone can help me out. Other than being trained by Pletcher who wins more than his fair share of derby preps, why 5-1 on behindathebar.

Pretty competitive field, low on numbers from the 2 services I use, nothing to make me see why he's 5-1 and wins other than Pletcher.

Did he show up strong on any other numbers? Was it just Pletcher?

Niko: Behindthebar threw out some solid numbers with the program I use, which put him on top. I do feel the Pletcher/Flores combo depressed his odds quite a bit. I've attached a screenshot of the analysis screen...Marty

[JustRalph]

does that program show the 2nd place horse running 6th?

[BoldEye]

Yeah...I hate it when that happens.

[Ned Locke]

Your system also made Salute the Sarge number 2 and Samba Rooster number 6.

Let us know what it makes of the Derby, so we can toss its top four picks.


Niko: Behindthebar threw out some solid numbers with the program I use, which put him on top. I do feel the Pletcher/Flores combo depressed his odds quite a bit. I've attached a screenshot of the analysis screen...Marty

[ryesteve]

Your system also made Salute the Sarge number 2 and Samba Rooster number 6.

Let us know what it makes of the Derby, so we can toss its top four picks.
Yeah, because any software that can't give you a cold Super in every race is obviously a piece of crap :rolleyes:

[Ned Locke]

Yeah, because any software that can't give you a cold Super in every race is obviously a piece of crap :rolleyes:

I think my grandmother could have come up with that roster on a given race. There was no continuity in the selections. I'd really like to see what that program touts for the Derby top four. Assuming it could get one of the placing horses in there, I'll decide which one it is.



http://youtube.com/watch?v=I9hpMgKI_NU

[DJofSD]

Trifecta - like this? From The Mystery Horse thread: (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=514379#post514379)

A preliminary look at the match up tomorrow -- Tomcito is up against it. He'll definitely have to "kick it up a notch". If he runs to his works, breaks well, some how over comes the outside post bias and is not straggling far back, he could get 2nd.

At the moment, Behindthebar has some very tempting pace numbers. And this is Todd's other horse.

I see early pace runners as Samba Rooster, St. Joe and possibly Atoned pressing closer than normal. Felon and Red Sandy just broke their maiden and who knows what they'll do coming out of the gate. As a guess, I'd say Felon with Julien will be a part of that early contest.

If the early pace is not break-neck crazy, Samba Rooster might carry his speed.

Riley Tucker has every right to get a minor prize.

[headhawg]

I think my grandmother could have come up with that roster on a given race. There was no continuity in the selections. I'd really like to see what that program touts for the Derby top four. Assuming it could get one of the placing horses in there, I'll decide which one it is.Why not just ask your grandmother?

And I really wish that players who want to see someone else's black box software picks would just buy a handicapping program, take its top 3 or 4 picks, and throw lots of money into the pools. Lots of money. That would make me very happy.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let us know what it makes of the Derby, so we can toss its top four picks.I can tell you're gonna last here a long, long time with insights such as this....

[Marshall Bennett]

I rate this race right along side the Blue Grass ... throw it out , draw a line through it , look elsewhere , means nothing . Stay tuned for next year and much of the same . When , if ever , they go back to racing on dirt again , I'll consider it . The idiots ruined a truely outstanding facility .

[FlyinLate]

Your system also made Salute the Sarge number 2 and Samba Rooster number 6.

Let us know what it makes of the Derby, so we can toss its top four picks.

I hope you would toss the top 4 selections considering that program managed to come up with the winner.

If there was a program that could pick the top 4 on a regular basis don't you think everyone would have it?

[Kelso]

Niko: Behindthebar threw out some solid numbers with the program I use, which put him on top.

The chubby guy (the one with the piggy bank) on ESPN used that 2-7-10 combo in an exacta box. I wonder if he uses RDSS, also.

[joanied]

The chubby guy (the one with the piggy bank) on ESPN used that 2-7-10 combo in an exacta box. I wonder if he uses RDSS, also.

Hank Goldberg :jump:

[BoldEye]

The question Niko raised at the beginning of his thread was "did Behindthebar show up strong on any other numbers or was it just Pletcher?" He did show up strong on my numbers and I do think Pletcher influenced the price. That's it. Has nothing to do with black boxes or tri's or supers. Anyone with 'capping experience knows that a software package is just another tool to intrepret the numbers, as is the Form... If I had mentioned Behindthebar's running strong on a 108 pace (set aside ITV's for now) when no one else had, would we criticize the Form? If the question had been about exactas and exotics, maybe then it would be meaningful to bring the early speed of the 3 into play.But that wasn't the question...Whew...

[asH]

be careful, the high numbers for some of these are due to that stuff they run on at SA, where the #'s are off the scale. So happens this field was sub par, along with Salute The Sarge and Atoned. If your #'s had Samba Rooster to low or salute the Sarge to high on the list, I would give it a second look...or simply ask yourself if it has been working through the Kee meet.

[JustRalph]

I was going to ask some questions about what the colors mean etc.........but since we took a swerve.............. we can just pass.

Rysteve had it right..............sarcasm included

I just wondered why Samba Rooster was low, everything I put together had him on top.............que sera sera .............

[BoldEye]

Just Ralph: I'd be glad to answer anything you'd like to ask. I'd also be sincerely interested in what approach you used that put the 3 on top. Should be mentioned that the RDSS I use also includes some personal configurations so it differs a bit from the standard version...

[JustRalph]

Just Ralph: I'd be glad to answer anything you'd like to ask. I'd also be sincerely interested in what approach you used that put the 3 on top. Should be mentioned that the RDSS I use also includes some personal configurations so it differs a bit from the standard version...


Equisim, Samba Rooster was on top in the sim. Behind at the bar, way back.

Jcapper: Samba Rooster was the JPR 1 horse. Behind the bar 9th JPR.

These were not tweaked at all. Just raw , open the card file. Run the programs. No tweaking at all.

[Marshall Bennett]

be careful, the high numbers for some of these are due to that stuff they run on at SA, where the #'s are off the scale. So happens this field was sub par, along with Salute The Sarge and Atoned. If your #'s had Samba Rooster to low or salute the Sarge to high on the list, I would give it a second look...or simply ask yourself if it has been working through the Kee meet.
Beleive Atoned may bounce back ( not sure where ) . Salute the Sarge was in over his head with this bunch , of course at Keeneland that doesn't mean much . The derby is way over his head .

[ManeMediaMogul]

I didn't like him either............although I was interested when Flores took the flight. He ran pretty well on the poly......Flores flys in...........I guess that was what they were betting................

Pletcher absolutely loved the horse. He told several people around the track. That is why he was 5-1.

[Niko]

Equisim, Samba Rooster was on top in the sim. Behind at the bar, way back.

Jcapper: Samba Rooster was the JPR 1 horse. Behind the bar 9th JPR.

These were not tweaked at all. Just raw , open the card file. Run the programs. No tweaking at all.

Probably because it used Bris data correct?

Pletcher touting the horse would make a huge difference, thanks on that. I didn't like Tomcito one bit and he was bet way down too-but I know why he was be down.

[DJofSD]

Probably because it used Bris data correct?

I used data from BRIS. Didn't hamper me in any way.

[JustRalph]

yep, I use Bris..........still waiting on them to ask me to do that commercial............. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

I had win and place bets on Samba Rooster and I am using The Capper at the moment (www.netcapper.com (http://www.netcapper.com)).

[BoldEye]

be careful, the high numbers for some of these are due to that stuff they run on at SA, where the #'s are off the scale. So happens this field was sub par, along with Salute The Sarge and Atoned. If your #'s had Samba Rooster to low or salute the Sarge to high on the list, I would give it a second look...or simply ask yourself if it has been working through the Kee meet.

No disagreement here. Appreciate the comments...

[BoldEye]

Equisim, Samba Rooster was on top in the sim. Behind at the bar, way back.

Jcapper: Samba Rooster was the JPR 1 horse. Behind the bar 9th JPR.

These were not tweaked at all. Just raw , open the card file. Run the programs. No tweaking at all.

Thanks for the insight. Haven't any experience with them but understand them to be fine programs... I'm guessing that they both pretty much considered Samba to be lone early and not get run down. True?

[JustRalph]

Thanks for the insight. Haven't any experience with them but understand them to be fine programs... I'm guessing that they both pretty much considered Samba to be lone early and not get run down. True?

Equisim, yep. I won't speak for Jcapper.........it would take forever to explain why the horse was JPR1........ and I would just get it wrong anyway...... :lol:

But in Equisim that is basically the way it works. It builds the sim from the Bris numbers and that's about it. You can choose the pace line to use if you want. I let the program choose the pace line raw. Normally if I am going to bet a race though, I run it thru Equisim Raw and then make my own adjustments for different pace lines etc.......... hopefully between the two scenarios I come up with a valid consensus. As in this case with Samba Rooster, both programs pick the horse on top.....raw........ and my ears prick up ......... damned if he didn't almost get it done.

[NY BRED]

once again the Keenland synthetic surface allows
mediocre horses to enter the derby where they will be inhaled
by classier performers who have performed reasonably well
on dirt.
Unless the track becomes sloppy or CD elects to run the race on turf (:) )
I can't visualize Pletcher's crew doing much damage to Big Brown or Pyro

[DJofSD]

does that program show the 2nd place horse running 6th?

What I learned many years ago is the place horse is not the 2nd best win contender. Sometimes it is but in this case it was not.

[jonnielu]

Maybe someone can help me out. Other than being trained by Pletcher who wins more than his fair share of derby preps, why 5-1 on behindathebar.

Pretty competitive field, low on numbers from the 2 services I use, nothing to make me see why he's 5-1 and wins other than Pletcher.

Did he show up strong on any other numbers? Was it just Pletcher?

If the numbers were based on ability, the picture would be a little more clear going in, and the results would make more sense. A quick analysis of ability gives an accurate picture of this race going in, a comprehensive analysis of the same numbers can teach you well beyond the common understanding:

9th - 8.5fD Lexington Stakes
# POST ErlSpd / ML/Comp

32 4 96 8 128
58 2 96 4 154
35 3 93 8 128
50 8 91 6 141
50 5 90 4.5 140

84 11 88 30 172
72 7 87 12 159
69 6 87 20 156
54 1 86 3 140
77 9 85 12 162
76 10 80 12 156

The stickouts are in relation to the favorites rating, and the favorite is always a stickout, because it is simply assumed that from a handicappers perspective, the favorite has a favorable record in accordance to the conditions of the race.

When the stickouts in relation to the favorite also reasonably match with the four top ML choices, I also assume that I am looking at general ability, and seeing the handicappers view as it is folded into a viewpoint of ability only.

Perhaps it sounds arrogant, but it is not intended to be, but the simple fact is that from this viewpoint I can see many things that the handicapper just can not. If I say that this is due to the shortcomings of the format that his data is in, that may sound arrogant too, but if it is the truth, what can I do about it?

A sound edge is supposed to be what a horseplayer needs.

The first thing that I see is that he has not made a sound assessment of #1, #2, and #3.

Because this race is an 8.5f distance, I can see by his ML, that the handicapper is either unaware of these horses abilities, or unaware of the effects that these abilities will have at this particular distance. If this idea continuously is bounced back to me as true, again, what can I do except to accept it. I guess that I could learn to apoligize for sounding arrogant, but, I still can't help the way it may sound.

The basic effect of the 8.5f non-grass distance is that it usually provides a well balanced collision of the fast and the slow at the wire. Unless there is one participant that is capable of overwhelming and un-common early speed.

Again, I suppose that I can apologize for knowing this, but it seems a silly habit to develop.

How this applies to the #1 is that with the early speed in the race, he will likely be pulled out of his comfort zone in an effort to protect his #1 position, since at least one amongst #2,#3,#4,#5 will jump on it from the gate. This is not good for #1 because he is favored here by showing his max ability of 54/86, a fine run, and it would be a fine run today, just not enough against this field, he will miss the collision at the wire because he will have to come up with enough speed to keep up early, and that will set him back late.

The likely cause of this is the first unseen ability horse amongst the fast group, #3. His 35/93 rating would suggest that he should get some notice from the handicapper because this stickout ability can not usually be well hidden. Suspicion one is that the handicapper is blinded to this horses ability for speed because of invalid notions of "class". Form analysis could shed more light here, but this take is good enough for the quick analysis.

The ratings for #2 and #4 suggest that these early speed marks were likely set in sprint distances, so both of those can be doubtful for making the collision at the wire, but they will add to the necessity of fast early running.

I know that nothing is going to turn #8, Tomcito into an early giddyup horse, so although he may have the ability to get into this early horse race, he is going to dance with what got him here, and that puts him out of the collision at the wire.

Because of the abilities, the class issue, the post position, and the outright neccessity of it, to have any opportunity to clear the majority of the purse from the tabletop, #3 is most likely to jump on it from the gate as the only strategy that could win the race. There is only one horse in the fast group that the ratings would suggest can and will go with him, with the ability to get in on the collision at the wire, and that is #5 at 50/90. I want to consider the distance of his last race.

Now the question is, which of the slow will make the collision with the pace that these two will likely set?

Since #1 is already gone, I can just look at the composite rating and get three likely candidates, #6,#7, and #10. All three have ability that has escaped the handicapper's eye, but I can still lean on him for the keen observations that he has made. He lists the #6 at 20 - 1 ML. A likely toss, but I will wait for the final analysis, just in case.

Off of the quick analysis of the abilities, I would say that #3,#5,#7, and #10 will likely be involved in the collision at or about the wire of this race. Which is the likely winner? #7, the fastest of the slow.

The further analysis will likely fortify the quick analysis. Since that has been the case throughout the KEE meeting, I will again say that poly has nothing to do with results at KEE. That surface is here to stay.

jdl

[SMOO]

once again the Keenland synthetic surface allows
mediocre horses to enter the derby where they will be inhaled
by classier performers who have performed reasonably well
on dirt.


You mean like Street Sense? :lol:

[Rackon]

You mean like Street Sense? :lol:

Exactly!

Apparently Behindatthebar's owners say he is not Derby bound.

[Kousa]

I was hoping Atoned would run better this race. Thoughts on his performance?

[BoldEye]

I think Atoned was up against it with no Poly experience and facing a quick pace. His only two wins, in a maiden and cheap stakes, were against 113 and change. In his last few races, he was tiring against pretty tepid fractions. Another factor, I feel, is that his energy distribution just doesn't fit what's working at KEE... He just never really got into the race...Maybe do better next out, depending on where he's placed...

[BeatTheChalk]

You ARE going to play my Exacta ..right ? Big Brown to Big Truck ..ergo
the Big Brown Truck :jump:
I did love your posting about the 2nd horse running 6th :lol:

[BoldEye]

Love it! UPS spot play...;)

[joanied]

justralph....LOVE:jump: your new avatar....very :cool:

:D

[JustRalph]

justralph....LOVE:jump: your new avatar....very :cool:

:D

Thanks, I will leave it up a few days. Change again after I get back from Keeneland and Churchill next week.............

[joanied]

Thanks, I will leave it up a few days. Change again after I get back from Keeneland and Churchill next week.............

Have a good time in Kentucky...gonna give us a report on the derby doings when ya get back?