Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Lexington Stakes this saturday at KEE are available at the link below. Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

Here are my initial thoughts on the field.


ATONED appeared to have had seconditis prior to his last start where he was flat. He shows a good 4f drill, drops weight, and gets a much better rider for this spot along with a cozy inside post.

SALUTE THE SARGE has only one bad race in his record; the slop on BC day. All of his other races are over artificial surfaces with his most recent being a 6f sprint for his 3yo debut. Another solid 6f drill solidifies his worktab, he drops 5 lbs and Baze makes the trip.

SAMBA ROOSTER has never been around two turns. In his last start he showed the ability to finish better than he has previously and Baffert's connections bought him privately. He drops weight, shows one sneaky good 1/2 mile work over the KEE surface and lures Gomez to ride.

ST. JOE is 2-2 at KEE and 0-5 everywhere else. He comes off a career best
race and loses 6 lbs but he is unproven around two turns; will not doubt be part of the pace.

RACECAR RHAPSODY added blinkers last time and ran decently in his 3yo debut. He loses 4 lbs, likes KEE, and Albarado stays aboard but his best effort appears to be over a conventional dirt surface.

FELON finally woke up in his last start breaking his maiden after being favored in each of his first three races. The jump to stakes company off that effort appears to be a stretch.

BEHINDTHEBAR has three solid starts over SA cushion track and one mediorce start on dirt. Pletcher lures Flores to make the trip from the west coast and he shows a solid 4f drill for this.

TOMCITO ran decently in his first US start and shows an unusual workout from the gate ? Perhaps the connections want to try and put him closer to the pace. Chaven comes in for for the ride.

BIG GLEN ran a solid race last in a career best effort. Since adding lasix he has won 3 of 4 races over Polytrack and Douglas stays aboard.


RILEY TUCKER has made steady improvement in each of his 3yo starts but is still eligible for a nw1x allowace condition. He draws a poor post but does lure Velasquez to ride.

RED SANDY looks like Lukas's last gasp effort to have a Derby runner, good luck with that....

[cj]

Hey John,

I don't think there is anything cozy about an inside post at Keeneland.

[john del riccio]

Hey John,

I don't think there is anything cozy about an inside post at Keeneland.

CJ,

With the exception of the first turn, I agree with you.

Interesting race.

John

[john del riccio]

CLASS:
------

FELON is outclassed. BEHINDTHEBAR is stepping up but he did match his career best variant rating at 1 1/16 having previously earned that rating at 7f. That type of development signals improvement so he is eligible to step up. TOMCITO faced the toughest of any of these runners but closed from nowhere to next to nowhere and managed to lose five lengths
in the final 1/8 mile so to say he has a class edge woud dbe a stretch.
The remainder of the field has perfoemed resonably well against simiiar competiton.

PACE:
-----

The horse that has a clear "pace advantage" on this field is ST. JOE (77 pace). He draws inside and comes out of a 7f sprint. SAMBA ROOSTER shows is the main threat to pressure the pace (77 pace in a one turn mile) but that was based on a dirt race. SALUTE THE SARGE was a 76 variant rating at 6f so stretching out around two turns today will likely put him close to the pace as well but he earned that rating over SA's cushioned track.


VARIANT:
--------

The horses that have shown the most talent going long are ATONED (77 dirt),
SAMBA ROOSTER (77 dirt, one turn), BIG GLEN (76 Poly), RACECAR RHAPSODY (76 dirt), RILEY TUCKER (75 Poly), SALUTE THE SARGE (75 cushion), and BEHINDTHEBAR (75 cushion).

This is a very competitive race. The horses that have shown two turn ability over Polytrack are BIG GLEN and RILEY TUCKER. RILEY TUCKER has two races over Polytrack that are his two best races. He is adding blinkers (for the second time) for todays race and did show the ability to be competitive when the pace was quick in sprints early in his 2yo year when he wore blinkers.
BIG GLEN may get the perfect pace setup and is in top form.


BIG GLEN
RILEY TUCKER
SALUTE THE SARGE

Sleeper: SAMBA ROOSTER

Good Luck,
John