BETTING METHOD ?

[Doug]

Wouldlike some comments on a particular betting method.

Lets say I have a rating method that gives me a resonable expectation of hitting 70% out of the top 4 selections. 1st pick 25% @ about $7.40- 2nd pick around 18% @ $9.00- 3rd & 4th pick hit at about 13-14% each@ avg pays of @11.00 and $17.00.
Sometimes these picks pay some pretty astounding prices. Just this week at GP one 4th pick paid $156. I know this is an aberration, but it gets several $20-$30 payoffs.

A lot of times the 1st pick is a longshot and the 4th pick is the fav.
All picks are assigned an odds line.
The betting strategy that I am going to check out is the following:

Play the best overlay from the top 4 picks and any horse not picked in the top 4, but are super overlays and has a least one factor that could make that horse a winner.

Play the best overlay from the top 4 3 units to win. Play the super overlays 1 unit to win. If there two horses in the top 4 split the 3 units between them.

Appreciate any comments. Even negative, which is probably what I will get the most of.

Doug

[formula_2002]

Doug,

1st pick
25% winners at 2.70-1, return a loss of 7.5 cents on the dollar.

2nd pick
18% winners at 3.5 -1, returns a loss of 19 cents on the dollar.

3rd pick
13% winners at 4.50-1, returns aloss of 28.5%

4th pick
14% winners at 7.50-1, returns a profit of 19%...

Play the 4th pick..

Joe M

[ranchwest]

The data on the 4th pick includes an aberration. Concentrate on finding an advantage in your handicapping.

[andicap]

Doug,

How do your first picks (and the other three) do at certain minimum odds?
They might be big losers at 3-1 and below, but successful in the 4-1 and 10-1 range....or so.