Alternatives to Vulnerable ML Fave's and some "Locks"?????

[duckhunter3]

For thursday:
In most cases we can't know who the post time fave will be until post time, but often, we can get an idea of who probably will be by the ML. Below are some races where I again consider the ML fave/fave's to be vulnerable and create situations where you can feel more comfortable SWINGING FOR THE FENCES even if they ARE ultimate the ML fave's. I am also listing some alternatives to consider in each of those races. I haven't completely analyzed the alternatives and will be looking at whether they are likely to "bounce" or have fitness issues (because of layoffs) or weak trainers, or trainer/jockey combos. So I am not RECOMMENDING any of the alternatives at this point- just suggesting they definitely should be considered based on preliminary review.

So here we go and good luck tomorrow: (the first number is the race number, the second is the vulnerable ML fave and if there is an & the second and 3rd are the vulnerable faves, and the remainder are the alternatives).

Race Vulnerable ML Fave Alternatives to consider
AQU 4 3 1-2-5-6
AQU 5 1A 4-5-6-8
GP 4 1 & 2 1-5-6-7
GP 5 8 4-6-7-10
KEE 1 5 & 8 3-4-7-9
KEE 3 11 4-6-10
KEE 4 3 & 5 2-4-6
KEE 6 2 & 5 3-6-8
KEE 7 1 & 1A 3-5-8-9
KEE 9 9 4-7-8

Now for some (dare I say, "mortal") locks? At least one of these should win, although admittedly at short odds, but I will consider them as singles in vertical and horizontal exotics:

AQU 1 #1
GP 1 #7

Hope this helps someone.

[duckhunter3]

sorry, everyone. I was trying to get some spacing in these numbers so they would be easier to read. I spaced them when I wrote the message but they weren't spaced when it was posted.

then our friendly administrator cut me off and said editing time had run out (why?) so I wasn't able to make it more clear.

But the first number is the race number, the second is the vulnerable ML fave and if there is an & it is the second and 3rd who are vulnerable, and the remainder are the alternatives to consider.

Hope this helps. what a pain.

[duckhunter3]

Here are a couple more from PIM which starts tomorrow, and possible vulnerable post time fave's based on who the ML fave is. May not be the same. Post time fave may be another horse who isn't vulnerable, but I have found that when I find a ML fave who is vulnerable, many times that horse is the post time fave and runs out. that is what I am looking for.

Pim 1 -#3 ML fave. consider 1-7-8 as alternatives.
Pim 5- #11 ML fave. consider 3-5-7-8.

[duckhunter3]

PIM vul ML faves. Tread carefully here. Meet is just beginning and we don't know anything yet about track bias, trainer intent, etc., etc. But these two look vulnerable in a vacuum.

[duckhunter3]

Here are a couple more ML favorites that meet my basic criteria for vulnerability, and potential alternatives to consider- at HAW.

Haw 3- #3. Instead, look carefully at 4-5-6.
Haw 9- #6. Instead look carefully for a winner among 1-2-3-7.

Good luck.
duckhunter3