View Full Version : Keeneland handle down 17 percent
GlenninOhio
04-16-2008, 06:39 PM
Excerpt:
"(Keeneland spokesman Jim) Williams acknowledged that anecdotal tales abound in regard to how some bettors have scaled back their wagering because of unfamiliarity with, or a dislike for, synthetic surfaces, but added that if those are true, then why were records set last spring?
"We're truly at a loss to give a full explanation," he said. "We've looked closely at the quality of racing and believe it's been top-notch. We've noted that there is a difference in scheduling in California now that eliminates one day a week [Wednesday], and obviously they're a major simulcast market for us. But overall, this really has us back on our heels."
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93744.html
The first season, people didn't realize the vast difference between dirt and polytrack. Now, they do, and they aren't betting. I'm not surprised.
NoCal Boy
04-16-2008, 07:00 PM
The problems at Santa Anita really highlighted the synthetic track issues for some and that is a 2008 issue. The del Mar meet last summer frustrated many. I do believe the lack of racing in California on Wednesday's hurts as well. TVG just reported a 70% jump in its Blue Grass handle so ADW is likely not the culprit either. Maybe they will finish strong. Pick 6 had to help a bit today.
Or some of it could be people in my situation. I wager with TwinSpires (TVG will not allow wagering from my home State) and I can only wager by phone on Keeneland which is somehting I am not going to do.
Does anyone know why TVG will not accept wagers from a State that TwinSpires will allow?
Freddy
samyn on the green
04-16-2008, 08:20 PM
There was a time when I used to bet $300-$500 a day on Keeneland when they had the dirt mega-bias. When I look back at my Brisnet records it still was my most profitable track. Now that they have this unbettable poly thing I have bet a total of $35 at the whole meet with $25 of that on a turf race. Us horseplayers hate change, but I wish they would bring back the dirt.
parlay
04-16-2008, 08:35 PM
I have just lost interest. I made a few bets today, THE
FIRST TIME IN 3 WEEKS. I always looked forward
to Keeneland but racing has worn me down. If they
can alianate me the industry is in big trouble.
Cangamble
04-16-2008, 09:20 PM
I can't cash a ticket at Keeneland. White flagged it.
cj's dad
04-16-2008, 09:30 PM
Food +$$$, Gas+$$$, Home heating oil+$$$$= less disposable incomeExcerpt:
"(Keeneland spokesman Jim) Williams acknowledged that anecdotal tales abound in regard to how some bettors have scaled back their wagering because of unfamiliarity with, or a dislike for, synthetic surfaces, but added that if those are true, then why were records set last spring?
"We're truly at a loss to give a full explanation," he said. "We've looked closely at the quality of racing and believe it's been top-notch. We've noted that there is a difference in scheduling in California now that eliminates one day a week [Wednesday], and obviously they're a major simulcast market for us. But overall, this really has us back on our heels."
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93744.html
Grits
04-16-2008, 09:42 PM
The first season, people didn't realize the vast difference between dirt and polytrack. Now, they do, and they aren't betting. I'm not surprised.
If this becomes more and more obvious, showing increased, or steady, lost handle in coming race meets. Regardless what Keeneland has invested in poly--I don't care if they're manufacturing the stuff on the clubhouse turn--you'll see it go.
Keeneland Racecourse isn't about losing money; plus the blood runs too blue. They won't have it, there's too much pride in their product. They'll give it time, but if it ain't working--they'll dig it up. First to haul it in, first to haul it back out.
phatbastard
04-16-2008, 09:43 PM
my favorite meet every year......have bet tiny action bets on half-dozen races this year...maybe i'm stupid, but i can't figure it out anymore.....
Bruddah
04-16-2008, 10:03 PM
that the everyday player pays for the bills and Polycrap hurts their fancy "purses". Let's review their stated reasons for forcing Polycrap surfaces on the Thoroughbred Industry
1. Safer and fewer breakdowns--shown to be a lie. (no difference)
2. Cheaper because of less maintenance--shown to be a lie (more expensive)
3. Better for the jockey's--ummm maybe--blowback is softer--but particulate matter requires riders to wear masks.--long term effects unknown.
4. Less days lost to bad weather--shown to be a lie
Add the lost betting and Polycrap is a HUGE BOONDOGGLE. :lol: :D
David-LV
04-16-2008, 10:59 PM
that the everyday player pays for the bills and Polycrap hurts their fancy "purses". Let's review their stated reasons for forcing Polycrap surfaces on the Thoroughbred Industry
1. Safer and fewer breakdowns--shown to be a lie. (no difference)
2. Cheaper because of less maintenance--shown to be a lie (more expensive)
3. Better for the jockey's--ummm maybe--blowback is softer--but particulate matter requires riders to wear masks.--long term effects unknown.
4. Less days lost to bad weather--shown to be a lie
Add the lost betting and Polycrap is a HUGE BOONDOGGLE. :lol: :D
I could not agree more.
This post says it all, short and sweet, but oh so true.
_________
David
could be, some of the widely used systems/programs dont work for a profit at Kee/(environment?)....
JustRalph
04-16-2008, 11:54 PM
Or some of it could be people in my situation. I wager with TwinSpires (TVG will not allow wagering from my home State) and I can only wager by phone on Keeneland which is somehting I am not going to do.
Does anyone know why TVG will not accept wagers from a State that TwinSpires will allow?
Freddy
I tried to call in a bet on the Blue Grass while on the road last Saturday. It was the Bluegrass card etc. It was the first time I have ever called one in. The girl takes my info starts punching the bet in etc.......they say "oh, I am sorry, you can't bet that track, You live in Ohio" What the hell is that about?
I agree with CJ........polytrack has finally run a bunch of bettors off...........I am visiting Keeneland next week, but I have to tell you, if it weren't for the atmosphere and a chance to see some friends etc......... I don't think it would get much of my money based on my success there. But what's new :lol:
Btw, I am doing just fine at Santa Anita.........and I do pretty well at some of the other Polytracks.......but Keeneland is a whole different animal............
hibiscus
04-17-2008, 12:36 AM
Any other industry in the world would survey the customer and conduct focus groups. Ours is the only industry so arrogant that it treats the customer like a necessary evil.
Of course it’s the synthetic surface and silly way racing is now run on it. It’s no shock to me what I’m reading in this thread. I haven’t wagered a red cent on the Keeneland meet in two years. I used to regularly play the guaranteed pick 4 and pick 6 at the California tracks but I haven’t touched that circuit since the surface switch. My overall personal betting handle is down significantly due to the new surfaces. I know that I can‘t possibly be the only one.
Keeneland management will continue to make excuses while trying to save face. I hope that at some point the truth will be undeniable and they’ll restore legitimate dirt back on this historic racetrack and allow true racing to resume.
Cangamble
04-17-2008, 07:54 AM
Curious question to ask is if the 1.5 million a day they are down was bet somewhere else.
Also, averaging over 10 million a day doesn't actually equate to the public being turned off polytrack either.
I'm still unsure as to whether I like it or not or even care. Since I'm a speed handicapper, I tend to think it isn't that bad for long meets like Woodbine and Turfway have. But the short Keeneland meet where horses are coming from all kinds of tracks, class is such a factor it makes speed figures take a back seat enough times to make it a crap shoot at the windows.
BIG49010
04-17-2008, 08:02 AM
They lost me, a couple of bad beats by horses that didn't even belong in races and I was done. I look very closely at the phyiscal attributes of the horses, and I have to say Keeneland runs upside down. Poly :ThmbDown:
jballscalls
04-17-2008, 08:20 AM
i got dq'd 3 times there this meet, so i kind of gave up.
I don't find it surprising for track handle to be down at Keeneland or anywhere else. Because of the state of the economy the casino business which has run circles around the racing industry for years is showing decreases and I would not expect racing to fare better than casinos.
Racing has failed to grow handle over the last decade in spite of the fact that internet play and simulcasting has made it far easier for the hard-core fan to participate regularly. With no comparable technological advancements ahead it would not surprising to see handle turn down.
If I read the tone of posts around here there seems to be a fair amount of burn out and sour grapes among regular players which is not a good omen for the future.
If it is true that players are turned off by horses moving on and off the new surfaces CD will probably also do poorly due to the large number of horses there with Kee form for their last start.
DeanT
04-17-2008, 09:02 AM
I would agree with most here. When people are confident in a product and find their handicapping can predict winners, they play. At KEE this is a problem.
Just like we speak about with rebates - they help people win and when they do they send it in. Maybe they are not sending it in at KEE, simply because the average guy ain't winning his fair share.
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 09:44 AM
Btw, I am doing just fine at Santa Anita.........and I do pretty well at some of the other Polytracks.......but Keeneland is a whole different animal............
Break it down Ralph, there are reasons for what you just stated, and poly has very little to do with it. You likely play a speed bias in Cal, that simply doesn't exist at KEE. The fancy purses at KEE allow them to attract the horses that allow them to card very competitive races all day, and all week. The degree of competition does not show well in the form, but that is what puts the boxcar numbers on the board, not the poly.
Since opening day, there has been one race at KEE with an unexpected and mysterious result, the Bluegrass. And I doubt that it had anything to do with poly either.
In the paddock, Pyro looked as if he would just as soon lay down and take a nap. Cool Coal Man wanted to get out on the track and run, but I believe that Zito may have been more interested in plotting strategy for the Derby, then he was in winning this race. Visionaire turned in a decent performance, it appears that a decision was made not to go for broke in a run for the turn ala Big Brown. The three on the board are good enough to be there, if the other contenders are not willing to bust a gut to beat them in this race.
I think that this result has more to do with a group of owners that are more concerned with lining up strategy for the Derby then they are wrapping their palm around a 750k purse. It appears to me that Zito wanted to gather some intel for the idea of having War Pass jack rabbit for CCM for a 1,2 punch shot at a Derby win. And a little less to do with a poly surface.
I am at KEE Fridays thru Sundays, I'm the 6' 5" tropical looking guy that works his way from across the saddling area next to TVG, to the paddock, and then out to the rail close to the winners circle, you can't miss my neon green clip board. Flag me down at we'll sniff out what's going on at KEE for a few minutes.
jdl
...Since opening day, there has been one race at KEE with an unexpected and mysterious result, the Bluegrass. And I doubt that it had anything to do with poly either...
jdl
Some of us would say the Blue Grass was very predicatable. See my Race of the Week figures posted on my site. Everyone sees things a little differently.
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 09:50 AM
i got dq'd 3 times there this meet, so i kind of gave up.
Opening day, Race #1, I bet the #3 to win at 7-1, and he got DQ'd just for knocking a horse on his outside out of the way so that he could get to the middle of the lane to run down the two in front of him.
I didn't think he impeded anyone.
jdl
jballscalls
04-17-2008, 09:55 AM
Opening day, Race #1, I bet the #3 to win at 7-1, and he got DQ'd just for knocking a horse on his outside out of the way so that he could get to the middle of the lane to run down the two in front of him.
I didn't think he impeded anyone.
jdl
that was one of them for me two!! then later that day a frankel/juddmonte horse got taken down, i had him on top of the 20 to 1 in the exacta. first time ever i got dq'd twice in one day.
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 10:06 AM
Some of us would say the Blue Grass was very predicatable. See my Race of the Week figures posted on my site. Everyone sees things a little differently.
Perhaps, but is it a consistent majority? I am more geared to everyday racing, the big time events seem simpler to me because you can take stable effort for granted. There is truly an ass for every seat at the track, and there is a choice amongst several general perspectives that can well suit various people according to their particular makeup.
I have done well at KEE playing the able value, at AQU I would play the ratings with preference to the ML choices, GP I walk a middle line. But, there is a consistency that runs through all, that is the same everywhere.
Did you expect Pyro to not make a move? And if you saw him dragging his nose thru the paddock, would it be a surprise that he didn't?
Will his performance here be factored into your numbers for the Derby? Or will you toss it? I find it difficult to accept as an honest effort.
jdl
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 10:11 AM
that was one of them for me two!! then later that day a frankel/juddmonte horse got taken down, i had him on top of the 20 to 1 in the exacta. first time ever i got dq'd twice in one day.
For me, the results of the 10th that day and the 10th on the first Saturday righted these terrible injustices.;)
jdl
Bruddah
04-17-2008, 10:12 AM
Break it down Ralph, there are reasons for what you just stated, and poly has very little to do with it. You likely play a speed bias in Cal, that simply doesn't exist at KEE. The fancy purses at KEE allow them to attract the horses that allow them to card very competitive races all day, and all week. The degree of competition does not show well in the form, but that is what puts the boxcar numbers on the board, not the poly.
Since opening day, there has been one race at KEE with an unexpected and mysterious result, the Bluegrass. And I doubt that it had anything to do with poly either.
In the paddock, Pyro looked as if he would just as soon lay down and take a nap. Cool Coal Man wanted to get out on the track and run, but I believe that Zito may have been more interested in plotting strategy for the Derby, then he was in winning this race. Visionaire turned in a decent performance, it appears that a decision was made not to go for broke in a run for the turn ala Big Brown. The three on the board are good enough to be there, if the other contenders are not willing to bust a gut to beat them in this race.
I think that this result has more to do with a group of owners that are more concerned with lining up strategy for the Derby then they are wrapping their palm around a 750k purse. It appears to me that Zito wanted to gather some intel for the idea of having War Pass jack rabbit for CCM for a 1,2 punch shot at a Derby win. And a little less to do with a poly surface.
I am at KEE Fridays thru Sundays, I'm the 6' 5" tropical looking guy that works his way from across the saddling area next to TVG, to the paddock, and then out to the rail close to the winners circle, you can't miss my neon green clip board. Flag me down at we'll sniff out what's going on at KEE for a few minutes.
jdl
Also think that Pyro and CCM had enough graded money before the BG to know they would make the Derby field. Therefore, I discount their performances in the BG. Nothing more than stretching their legs with a pre Derby race and not getting them hurt. (JMHHO) :ThmbUp: Also, Visionaire needed the Graded money earnings and his 5th place showing may have put him on the bubble.
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 10:22 AM
Also think that Pyro and CCM had enough graded money before the BG to know they would make the Derby field. Therefore, I discount their performances in the BG. Nothing more than stretching their legs with a pre Derby race and not getting them hurt. (JMHHO) :ThmbUp: Also, Visionaire needed the Graded money earnings and his 5th place showing may have put him on the bubble.
A comment that I believe came from the barn that CCM doesn't need this race keeps ringing in my head. I have been thinking for awhile that Zito has an opportunity to influence the Derby pace with WP and CCM in a way that gives him a good shot at the trophy. It is the same owner, isn't it?
No horse in the bunch has displayed the same want for the wire as Pyro either, his BG performance is way out with respect to this.
jdl
Grits
04-17-2008, 11:07 AM
Opening day, Race #1, I bet the #3 to win at 7-1, and he got DQ'd just for knocking a horse on his outside out of the way so that he could get to the middle of the lane to run down the two in front of him.
I didn't think he impeded anyone.
jdl
Didn't impede? He kept knocking him . . . repeatedly. It was a blatant foul and he deserved to come down.
I'm sorry Jdl, if you didn't see this one as impeding another horse, I may have to question this oft seen stronghold you possess on expertise . . . one which finds myself, woefully, behind your bell curve many days. But certainly, not on this one.
jonnielu
04-17-2008, 11:29 AM
Didn't impede? He kept knocking him . . . repeatedly. It was a blatant foul and he deserved to come down.
I'm sorry Jdl, if you didn't see this one as impeding another horse, I may have to question this oft seen stronghold you possess on expertise . . . one which finds myself, woefully, behind your bell curve many days. But certainly, not on this one.
Grits,
I am often accused of being too serious, but actually this is one of many comments that are made within the "tongue in cheek" format.:)
jdl
1st time lasix
04-17-2008, 12:14 PM
The handle "take" from Keeneland is down for one main reason in my opinion and it has very little to do with the racing surface.....the US economy has been in a recession since the middle of December. High rollers who push serious money though the windows are hurt by lower stocks that peaked in October, .....declining real estate values, ....rising property taxes, ....cancelled projects .....and decining sales of various consumer products. In addition....they feel " poorer" and become more defensive with all the uncertainty. They see the negative media day after day....they also interact with their wealthy friends who have their concerns as well. Perhaps it all adds up to 10-15% less handle????
Jeff P
04-17-2008, 12:51 PM
Several months back I read reports showing Harness racing handle to be in sharp decline. I thought at the time Thoroughbred handle might follow suit... perhaps lagging 9-12 months behind.
I think there are a lot of contributing factors at play here. In no particular order:
1. Player confusion when it comes to predicting outcomes of highly competitive races.
2. Player uncertainty about the effect the new surface has on race outcomes. Contrary to what you might be led to believe polytrack has a had a significant effect on race outcomes everywhere it has been introduced.
3. Stewards a little too eager to play God resulting in DQs that make little sense to the players (specifically the one from last Saturday.) The second DQ on opening day looked weak to me as well... (although on that one I was moved UP but had I bet on the horse taken down I would have felt violated.)
4. A game where the industry is fragmented and track signals are not widely available. Included in this category would also be: public perception of our game: late odds changes, trainers who cheat by using drugs, and failure by the industry as a whole to take a customer oriented approach, etc.
5. "It's the Economy stupid."
I think all of these factors (and perhaps more) are having a cumulative effect. KEE is a premier meet. If their handle is in decline I don't think it bodes well for the industry's immediate future.
-jp
.
chuck
04-17-2008, 01:44 PM
As a 20+ year handicapper, I have recently given up playing on a regular basis. Some of the reasons why I quit apply here.
1. I was tired of being treated as a 2nd class citizen as a bettor. Racetrack management and horseman have one interest, themselves. The whole Tracknet ADW thing is a good example. The wagering public is just a nessecary evil. Pervailing wisdom is all we have to do is open the doors and they will come. That may have been true years ago when there was little competition for the gambling dollar but not any more.
2. To be good at handicapping takes a LOT of dedication. I was no longer willing to put in the kind of time and money it required. Not too many people are willing to either. The casual fan has many more outlets for his gambling dollar, instead of waiting 30 minutes for the next race. Why would someone take the time to figure out a racing form (and pay $5 for the privlege), when they can go put it in a slot machine and get a immediate win or loss?
LottaKash
04-17-2008, 01:56 PM
I for one, also, lament the recent demise of horse racing in general....And after perusing the previous posts, I must agree with many of the well taken points of view......
On a lighter side, tho, perhaps, in a way, we are not doing our fair share in introducing new players into the Racetrack Scene....
What I mean is, we have all this passion and wherewithal, trying to unravel racings' mysteries, and trying our best to make a successful go of it, with our hard earned knowledge...
But, has anyone made an honest attempt in getting new players interested in this love of ours....Is it our duty to do this?
I think maybe it is......I have in the past, had people interested in going to the track, and while watching me do my work, they just got turned off by it all, and just wanted to have some fun and yell at some horses, and drink some beer, and generally have a good time......
Most of my betting career, I have been a loner and a serious learner/bettor.......Given that, I have learned from time to time to leave my numbers at home (but still in my head), and take some people to the races with me and regress to being a $2 player again.......In the end, I had a good time, took some time off from all drudgery, and came home refreshed, and glad for the fun nite out........
Analagous to a garden, the track is ours, and from time to time we have to give it some fertilizer (new bettors)
It is our garden, and we must take care of it.....Collectively, we are powerful....and perhaps, if we all made an attempt to attract new cusromers freely and voluntarily, we may instill some new blood into the culture.......
just my 2 pennies....
humbly,
toetoe
04-17-2008, 02:09 PM
... cuz everybody I know LOVES betting Kee. Of course, something can't just grow grow grow, ad nauseam, right ? ;)
Valupix
04-17-2008, 02:54 PM
Simple answer: Keenelands largest base of gamblers are right here in there home state and most are not allowed to wager on their produce via internet unless they have multiple wagering accounts.
Do to the incredibly insane practice of exclusive internet wagering rights. Keeneland has forfeited the opportunity to have many from it's largest following wager regularly on it's signal. TVG has the exclusive rights to distribute the Keeneland internet signal to Kentucky residence.
Even for those that do have multiple accounts, they often have funds in one or the other account but often not in the account that allows Keeneland wagering for in-state gamblers. In that case, like those that have a single account that does not allow wagering on the signal, those player will simply wager on another track that is available to them.
I love Keeneland like no other place, but if they choose not to allow me to wager on it, I will enjoy another track.
Hajck Hillstrom
04-17-2008, 03:12 PM
....but did anyone notice the difference in action in the two Pik6 carryovers yesterday?
Keeneland had a record carryover of over $307k, but the pool only managed to barely double to $722k. Where as the Aqueduct carryover of $205k swelled to $853k. I don't see this as an industry issue as much as the wagering dollar not being invested at Keeneland.
I absolutely love Keeneland, but am finding it harder to pull the trigger there, and from what I've read here, I'm not alone.
I believe Keeneland to be an old fashion handicapper’s track/environment. Handicapping methods as handicapping odds (I cannot understand this concept) or speed numbers will not cut it here alone. I am concluding handicapping concepts (systems/specialized programs) that are generations removed from general handicapping methods will not work at their accepted ROI either. These are observations for discussion and not meant to disparage.
this is a good game!
trigger
04-17-2008, 04:43 PM
Some of us would say the Blue Grass was very predicatable. See my Race of the Week figures posted on my site. Everyone sees things a little differently.
I agree....your numbers were spot on.
Bobzilla
04-17-2008, 07:06 PM
Steven Crist has an interesting piece posted today in the DRF website pertaining to the 17% decline of Keenelnad's business. He brings up the fact that Oaklawn's recently concluded meet had a slight rise in business despite the state of the economy. I don't think he touched on the ADW issues for citizens of the commonwealth. But in any case I think he offers a reasonable explanation of what might be happening, one that Keeneland will be reluctant to want to accept given their busines interest in Polytrack. I would urge anyone interested in this topic to go to the DRF site and read what Mr. Crist has to say.
Cangamble
04-17-2008, 07:07 PM
I for one, also, lament the recent demise of horse racing in general....And after perusing the previous posts, I must agree with many of the well taken points of view......
On a lighter side, tho, perhaps, in a way, we are not doing our fair share in introducing new players into the Racetrack Scene....
What I mean is, we have all this passion and wherewithal, trying to unravel racings' mysteries, and trying our best to make a successful go of it, with our hard earned knowledge...
But, has anyone made an honest attempt in getting new players interested in this love of ours....Is it our duty to do this?
I think maybe it is......I have in the past, had people interested in going to the track, and while watching me do my work, they just got turned off by it all, and just wanted to have some fun and yell at some horses, and drink some beer, and generally have a good time......
Most of my betting career, I have been a loner and a serious learner/bettor.......Given that, I have learned from time to time to leave my numbers at home (but still in my head), and take some people to the races with me and regress to being a $2 player again.......In the end, I had a good time, took some time off from all drudgery, and came home refreshed, and glad for the fun nite out........
Analagous to a garden, the track is ours, and from time to time we have to give it some fertilizer (new bettors)
It is our garden, and we must take care of it.....Collectively, we are powerful....and perhaps, if we all made an attempt to attract new cusromers freely and voluntarily, we may instill some new blood into the culture.......
just my 2 pennies....
humbly,
I used to bring friends to the track all the time. That was before Beyer numbers showed up in the Daily Racing taking away most of my edge....now the only edge I have is when I bet with a rebate shop thanks to the fact that slots have taken the real dumb money out of the pools.
Why would you bring a friend out to play in an environment where they have no chance (a track without a substantial rebate plan)?
You are supposed to like your friends and you would think your friends like you back.
cnollfan
04-17-2008, 07:13 PM
Simple answer: Keenelands largest base of gamblers are right here in there home state and most are not allowed to wager on their produce via internet unless they have multiple wagering accounts.
Do to the incredibly insane practice of exclusive internet wagering rights. Keeneland has forfeited the opportunity to have many from it's largest following wager regularly on it's signal. TVG has the exclusive rights to distribute the Keeneland internet signal to Kentucky residence.
Even for those that do have multiple accounts, they often have funds in one or the other account but often not in the account that allows Keeneland wagering for in-state gamblers. In that case, like those that have a single account that does not allow wagering on the signal, those player will simply wager on another track that is available to them.
I love Keeneland like no other place, but if they choose not to allow me to wager on it, I will enjoy another track.
I agree. Certainly the economy has a lot to do with it, and *maybe* Polytrack, but the way that the tracks are freezing out potential bettors with their silly fiefdoms is ridiculous.
DeanT
04-18-2008, 10:03 AM
I wonder if the same fate is befalling Laurel? I simply can not make heads or tails of that place and have not bet a cent there.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.pimlico18apr18,0,4476354.story
Racing in Maryland has dropped from being an upper mid-level track to a minor league track in terms of quality.
Tampa Russ
04-18-2008, 10:43 AM
Interesting to note that Pimlico's opening day handle was up 7% from last year. Perhaps the players who would have normally bet KEE in previous meets redirected those funds to PIM? I did.
LottaKash
04-18-2008, 11:15 AM
Interesting to note that Pimlico's opening day handle was up 7% from last year. Perhaps the players who would have normally bet KEE in previous meets redirected those funds to PIM? I did.
I wonder what C & O (Cramer + Olmstead) would have to say about this......?
LottaKash
04-18-2008, 11:36 AM
I used to bring friends to the track all the time. That was before Beyer numbers showed up in the Daily Racing taking away most of my edge....now the only edge I have is when I bet with a rebate shop thanks to the fact that slots have taken the real dumb money out of the pools.
Why would you bring a friend out to play in an environment where they have no chance (a track without a substantial rebate plan)?
You are supposed to like your friends and you would think your friends like you back.
Yes, you would think likin us back, would be the proper thing to do......but the currently reality sucks....
But for me, I am still a playah, and still love to play, and still, I contend with this premise all the time.....what are we to do ?
With many tracks going sour, and so many players going sour, in the end, what will be next ?.....
I used to play many tracks in a day, and I just got tired of breaking even......So, I did some soul searching, and decided to specialize more, and hand pick my spots......Since then my bottom line has been upped.... I don't get all that much action anymore, so I'm not exactly on E-Z Street mind you, but my outlook is sunnier, I feel less pressure, and that is how I contend with the latest condition of our sport......
I feel your/our frustration, but alas, this is all we got.....
G.L.
Best,
JustRalph
04-18-2008, 02:01 PM
Interesting to note that Pimlico's opening day handle was up 7% from last year. Perhaps the players who would have normally bet KEE in previous meets redirected those funds to PIM? I did.
I actually bet two races at Pimilico yesterday, small money, but I can't bet Keeneland right now.............so there may be something to it.
I'm sure a big part of it is losing some of the supposed whales. Typically, they grind out a small positive ROI betting mostly shortish priced horses with a rebate included. I imagine that is very tough with the polytrack surface.
john del riccio
04-18-2008, 02:18 PM
I actually bet two races at Pimilico yesterday, small money, but I can't bet Keeneland right now.............so there may be something to it.
:lol: :lol:
rrbauer
04-19-2008, 11:29 AM
I spent the last two (2) days at Keeneland. Great weather. HUGE crowds. Yesterday (Friday) with only the weather for a special draw, they tailgated from one end of the parking lot to the other. Overflow parking in the fields at least a couple hundred yards out east from the barn area. Recession? Ha!
Sweet young things dressed to the nines in their spring best whisking around sipping whatevers, yakking and laughing and even betting. 16oz cup of draft beer is $4.25 which is fairly reasonable compared to other live venues.
I spoke with several old timers over the course of two days and to a person they all said the same thing: "I can't beat this track so I've cut way back on my betting here." Instead they bet sumulcast races from other tracks. Last evening I sat with a couple guys who were "glad as hell" that the live racing was over so they could "concentrate on Santa Anita".
Two observations on playing the poly at Keeneland:
1. In sprints, inside speed takes the worst of it. Everbody is gunning from the get-go and that puts huge pressure on the horses drawn inside. I would bet against the rail horse with impunity if it needed to be forwardly placed to win.
2. Routes are jockeys' races. Everybody is taking back. Three races were won wire2wire yesterday by horses that got out to uncontested leads (while everyone else took back) and just galloped along on an uncontested slow pace leaving plenty in the tank for the stretch run.
Final comment:
Lost both days!
JustRalph
04-19-2008, 12:32 PM
Sweet young things dressed to the nines in their spring best whisking around sipping whatevers, yakking and laughing and even betting. 16oz cup of draft beer is $4.25 which is fairly reasonable compared to other live venues.
makes it hard to play the races sometimes............. :lol:
horses721
04-19-2008, 12:44 PM
TVG has the exclusive signal to Keenland and that eliminates me and many others from playing them. If they're smart, they won't give an exclusive contract to a company that can only take wagers from 12 states when the contract expires.
There ya go...."if they are smart!"
That ways it all.
Few in the industry have the intelligence of a grapefruit.
Yorker
04-19-2008, 01:30 PM
There ya go...."if they are smart!"
That ways it all.
Few in the industry have the intelligence of a grapefruit.
That's an insult to grapefruit around the world.
horses721
04-19-2008, 02:00 PM
There ya go...."if they are smart!"
That ways it all.
Few in the industry have the intelligence of a grapefruit.
You are correct, I always make that mistake and overestimate the intelligience of the people in the industry. My apologize's to all the grapefruit's that have been insulted.
Maybe it is just coincidence, but it sure seems the track has been much fairer to early speed since this announcement.
BillW
04-21-2008, 09:47 AM
Maybe it is just coincidence, but it sure seems the track has been much fairer to early speed since this announcement.
It's been a bit damper the last few days. The track moves forward under those conditions. And BTW it's been much "fairer" to early speed since they installed the polytrack. Last dirt meet I was here for the first out of the gate and on the rail won. 15 second race, kinda like watching quarterhorses. :lol:
I agree the track was unfair when it was dirt as well, but to off the pace runners. They didn't fix the problem, they just turned it upside down.
Personally, if a track is going to favor one style or another, I'd prefer one where the horses that can run fastest are the ones not penalized. The track of the last few days would be fine if they could maintain, pretty fair to all styles.
BillW
04-21-2008, 10:02 AM
I agree the track was unfair when it was dirt as well, but to off the pace runners. They didn't fix the problem, they just turned it upside down.
Yes pretty much - I think they are running about 20%-25% wire to wire this meet (I don't have my full database with me, but I show 23% for this past week). I'll check it and repost if the data is much different.
Personally, if a track is going to favor one style or another, I'd prefer one where the horses that can run fastest are the ones not penalized. The track of the last few days would be fine if they could maintain, pretty fair to all styles.
Yea, the track runs "better" when it's a bit damp. Wed. will be a dry day again
DeanT
04-21-2008, 10:10 AM
I think there is something to this quote by Ross Gallo in the horseplayermagazine. But it appears the masses do not agree?
"I think it has eliminated some of the track profiling. I don't have to worry about Keeneland being front runners and $5 winners all day. I know those races have become diabolical and pace in meaningless, which is not a good thing, but if given the choice between utterly predictable and chaos, I'll take chaos. There are more opps in chaos than superhighways"
Grits
04-21-2008, 10:11 AM
Bill, only at Keeneland could one see a winner paying $130., an exacta paying $1376. and a .50 trifecta coming in at almost 5K. (Yesterday's 4th.)
I hope you get one of each of these, this coming week, while you're there. LOLOL;) It will pay for several visits to Kentucky.
BillW
04-21-2008, 10:31 AM
Bill, only at Keeneland could one see a winner paying $130., an exacta paying $1376. and a .50 trifecta coming in at almost 5K. (Yesterday's 4th.)
I hope you get one of each of these, this coming week, while you're there. LOLOL;) It will pay for several visits to Kentucky.
A little ole 80 something lady sitting beside me had a $4 ticket on the 5 in the 4th. She said she kinda liked her last workout. :lol:
BillW
04-21-2008, 10:33 AM
(I don't have my full database with me, but I show 23% for this past week). I'll check it and repost if the data is much different.
22% (not 21% - sorry) for 100 races so far on the main track.
bettheoverlay
04-21-2008, 03:23 PM
I liked this years version of KEE poly. Some logical contenders paying good prices. My software came up with live overlays every day and it is skewered slightly toward early speed.
I'm not as down as others on synthetics. I liked Santa Anita after they mixed in the Pro Ride in early February, its been very fair. Turfway was a true challenge, but I enjoyed it far more than their old frozen dirt track in the winter, or Mountaineers crazy winter dirt track. Also liked Tapeta at Golden Gate- bigger fields, better prices, fairer track than their old dirt. My software did better at the short meet at Presque Isle (Tapeta) than any other track last year. Great prices.
Plus I find a few dirt tracks indecipherable. I was totally skunked at Tampa Bay and Gulfstream this winter, and Calder dirt isn't much better.
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