BIGM WEDNESDAY 4/16/08

[botster]

Here are some that may "perk up" the exotics tonight.

1st 9 ROSECROFT RUMMY 8-1 not a big fan of this horse overall, but does compete well in these weak 15's and will be some good value.Speed try a few back is a plus, and i am hoping he is sound.Will be watching him closely in the warm-ups.

2nd 6 PA PLATES 9-2 will probably see too much action in the betting for me to get exited about, but does appear better stock than these.

3rd 1 CHEYENNE TRISH 8-1 needed her last couple and was a promising 2yo for these connections, in which Siegelman has had his best success with in the past.Draws in with an 11 for 11 2-5 morning liner, though that one has beaten garbage recently in those Maryland Stakes.

4th 6 KALLIES LADY(BEST) 12-1 seems to be overlooked a bit here in the M/L by Mr. Brower this evening.This one probably in the best shape of her career appears very dangerous to me.

6th 6 SPUROFTHEHAUER 20-1 showed some abilty early on in Canada and has been plagued by obvious lameness problems since the ship.In these dead trot races sub- par drivers can compete here, and this one may be worth using with that decent Q in last .

7th 9 CHEYENNE BARRY 8-1 "never thought i would be interested in two Siegelman horses in one night", but this one showed a solid try in last and can very well be a good one.

8th 6 JEREMY(SPOT) 10-1 has his physical woes, but has some heart to him when he is sound.I like the drop back into claimers and his last a Freehold was a good try.

9th 10 SHIVA MASTER 15-1 gets a tremendous driver change here shipping in from Pompano, where he showes some decent lines for young trainer/driver Ryan Macedonio.Has had some time to get acclimated to the cooler weather and is worth a good look.

10th 5 CAPTAIN CR KRIS 15-1 showed good speed in last after needing a few for an underated trot trainer Dick Campolong.Homebread may very well surprise some people in here.

Good Fortune All:jump:

[melman]

Nice job Botster, with three winners on the night @ $10.40 $6.80 and $26.40.

I think for the most part Dave Browner does a good job with the line at The Meadowlands but IMHO he was a bit off on the 4th race. :)

[botster]

Nice job Botster, with three winners on the night @ $10.40 $6.80 and $26.40.

I think for the most part Dave Browner does a good job with the line at The Meadowlands but IMHO he was a bit off on the 4th race. :)

Thankyou melman... about Brower i know how difficult of a job he has,but he has this ridiculous bias to horses drawing outside the six hole, and he underates so many horses in the morning line.To myself it is a real blessing as the GP just look idly right by them.

I feel sort of embarrased about tabbing a 2-1 shot as my best bet,but the inside connections were pounding this one unmercirfully.

The exacta with PA PLATES was a good one, ARMBRO DOUG is a game trotter when he is on, and he looked pretty good going tonight finishing second.

The big score came in the last, as A. Miller did a super job stealing it on the front end with CAPTAIN CR KRIS.

Good Fortune In The Future:jump:

[LottaKash]

Nice Shootin Botster........

Btw, in that 4th race with the 6-Kallie's Lady win.....I had the underneath horse in here.....yikes $96.40.........

Keeping in mind , this horse is 10 now, and things change over time.......but, if you are an M1 regular, you will remember everytime this horse - Lourdes A ships into M1, she makes waves......she had an 83 TM-SR 2back at Stga,and definitely fits (SR wise) but her recent lines were very dull looking,......but, by now you may know that, I am very suspicious of horses shipping in/out , it always means something or other....So historically, she is back, and up to her old tricks again ,coming in from YR, and Stga, with some rather dull racing lines, hmmm......but, this girl when she is starting to get good she stays good for a long time.....follow....I am tickled pink that my hunch/suspicions paid off........

Well in this Race, she was deepest and closing the most, she blasted out of the pack in mid stretch, with the winner being long gone, and she got up for the place.....What swung the deal for me (and I never would have used her underneath if not this)..........She had a Quirin Money- Box of +9 and A ton of back class, $87K last year,,,,,,,besting any of these, class wise...... A superior Money Box and Tons of Back Class, combined with a superior or equal TM-SR are very potent predictors, when you know that a horse is in form or coming into form or has nice hidden form.........

btw, Ray had Kallie's Lady tabbed as well.........

nice work guys,,,,,,,,I am a fan...

humbly,

.

[Ray2000]

Great call on CAPTAIN CR KRIS That's the way to spot value.:ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

:ThmbUp: Again, nice shooting guys......:ThmbUp:

Yesterday, when Ray had put his selection in the 4th @m1, I went to the program, to see what he had so much liked about this horse...and what I will say next is for the one's who may have not studied or saw this race, the same as some of the others in our group did......

#6 - Kallie's Lady, initially presented me with some problems, as she was only 2/42 lifetime and winless this year, and statistically and historically, Horses, in general almost always will resort to type, and do they same old thing they always do...

But, in this case, as she is only a 5yo,and there is always some hope for horses that are still young..... the stable was tipping their hand, when last week she was boosted in class, and now tonite is dropping back......Her last two running lines were less than impressive, just ok, BUT, she had that last 1/4 in 26:3, and her TM-SR was certainily equal to any in this race.....My message in here is, that it has been my observation, that when a winless gutless horse, starts to turn things around, and show something new or special, and many times they do this overnite, well you had better believe what you see....as generally, these are 1-SHOT horses and you have to be on them NOW before they are gone....cause', horses almost always will resort to their (type) old ways, and in her case 2/42 ?.....perhaps she is over her problems and will improve further.....but, for me, she has this SR of 80, and I don't think she will improve that number by much.....time will tell

But, still she had that big L-1/4, and I believe that was the clincher.....and tonite she did something she never does, she wired the field, and for me, whenever a horse changes their historical racing style, well, I take notice,my observations taught me, that it is a signal of coming things, and in her case she is a confirmed Grinder and tonite she was a front end go......
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Also, in retrospect, and I know it's easy to toot your horn, after the dust clears.....but yesterday I was pre-occupied with some domestic projects and didn't have time to doing any real studying....but, fwiw, what I have to say next, are opinions that I hold near and dear to me, and for me they are repeatable at any other time......For the sake of Truth in Reality, I ALWAYS, do my cappin prior to looking at any results, otherwise there is no point and no challenge, in knowing the winner in advance.....retro-handicapping will allow you to think that you are better than you may be....It may be good for discovery purposes, and even tho I am always learning, I have already made most of my important handicapping discoveries, and I put to them to task all the time.....
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In the 1st @m1 #5 Fantasticcamtastic was a nice play, I didn't have it for reasons already stated .....still I would've had this horse.......

She had the top SR-91, and his only competition speed wise, was the #7, BUT, if you have read any of my other posts, you can quickly see, that she ran a Brand New Top of 90 just last week, and for me, I figured the bounce, and that he did....coming down the lane he broke stride, a sure signal of a bounce in harness racing they are generally sore from their strenuous new top.......In a previoius post, I had pointed out (from my observations), that when a horse takes a recent new top, especially if it is WAY above their previous SR's, there are many things that can and will go wrong in their very next contest.....It happened in here tonite......#7 went off @ 1/1 and was a highly vulnerable favorite.......time to attack......

Back to #5.....He is clearly superior with Back Class $68K last year and a Money- box of +6 , plus this guy loves to race and is always digging in, a definite hard tryer.... So, for me, given the crap that he was in with tonite......It would've been a no-brainer.....sorry to have missed that one $10.60 for the win.....When my horses run, I always love 4/1....yeesh.....

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2R - m1.....along with the Botster, #6 PA Plates, would've definitely got my full attention.....

In his 3d race off of a little vacation, he popped, a new Top SR. 90, and his next race an 88sr, I believe because of his new top being so much higher than her previous races, she was given an ez-race (EZR), she did just fine, running inside near the front in a nice even race........

Then, it his very next start, he ships (shipping always means something) to Pcd and drops a class into a soft spot goes off at 4/5 blows the doors off the competition....Very powerful win and keeps his SR's to boot.....

He ships back to m1, razor sharp, back into his best class.

This horse has been lightly raced as he is 8yo and has only 64 starts lifetime, so obviously, this horse has/had some physical problems, so when a hurting horse gets good, you have to jump on them, while they are on the engine.......

As for the rest of the field, there are 4 horses that have the best shot with their SR's....we know who had one, haha

#2 -Darkon Crown 86sr...not a powerful running line in last race...another lightly raced hurting horse......good for the underneath.......went off a 3/5 and banged heads 1st over with PA Plates and couldn't hack it, a False Favorite......I think he will improve over that effort, and since he is feeling good right now.....I will watch him more closely......

#9 - Armbro Doug......a good money box +4 and nice back class...tough spot from the nine hole, but he got out and sat behind PA Plates the whole way around, a nice horse but not tonite, too bad the winner was in here, he would've been my pick,...but, PA Plates was a monster tonite......a definite underneath horse

#10 - Van Joe the last horse with a good SR ran a recent new top in last race, but, he doesn't have the recent class, as the others do....needed an EZR with his recent new top, and perhaps he got it....parked 3-wide 8th at the 1/4, and was hung for the mile and finished way back...

The exacta came back with a healthy $55.00 return....very gettable from this viewpoint.....

Well that's it, let the ole windbag go and take a nap....I have BOUNCED from my recent new Top yesterday.....hehe

humbly,

[mrroyboy]

Yes

Very nice handicapping. Can't wait for your picks for the rest of the weekend if you will post them. Thanks again.