KY Derby: Never too early for a software run

[JustRalph]

http://www.justralph.com/2008_ky_derby_raw_changed_pyro.jpg

This is a raw run.............***except for one thing. I changed the paceline for Pyro to his LA Derby performance. Without changing it from his last race.....Bluegrass.....he is next to last.

Monba is using the Blue Grass paceline. I thought that was interesting.

Just a little food for thought.............very early on..............there a few others that have not been tweaked.........like Cool Coal man etc.......... when I get time I will play around with it a little more................* the one I find interesting is the Colonel John placing..........it is using the SA Derby in this simulation run...........and check out Eight Belles...........fyi

[FlyinLate]

http://www.justralph.com/2008_ky_derby_raw_changed_pyro.jpg

This is a raw run.............***except for one thing. I changed the paceline for Pyro to his LA Derby performance. Without changing it from his last race.....Bluegrass.....he is next to last.

Monba is using the Blue Grass paceline. I thought that was interesting.

Just a little food for thought.............very early on..............there a few others that have not been tweaked.........like Cool Coal man etc.......... when I get time I will play around with it a little more................* the one I find interesting is the Colonel John placing..........it is using the SA Derby in this simulation run...........and check out Eight Belles...........fyi

Very interesting. I love where it places Eight Belles and ToE :)

[LottaKash]

I have never heard or saw any reports by anyone using EquiSim.....How does it perform?.......For everyday racing?........For Stakes and Big races?........for Sprints/Routes?

Interesting printout.........


Sounds like a toy, like Sim-City.......haha:eek:

Seriously tho, is it worthwhile software..?

[JustRalph]

Lotta, Equisim has been around a while.

www.thorotech.com


No updates in a few years..........

But for raw race simulations, it is very good. I still use it with Jcapper.

It allows you to pick the pacelines and do tons of other stuff. I use it mostly for the simulation mode. I normally allow equisim to pick the pacelines and then I go thru and choose which ones I like and compare.

There is lots of data about it on the board from back around 2002-2003. I suggest trying the search function. There is also a forum dedicated to the product. You can link to it from the link above.



It has its merits. Gets good marks from many. Many use it as a supplement to other stuff. I used to use it alone and did very well with it. But the newer programs (HTR JCapper etc) are continually evolving and I think that is where Equisim has now become an "add on" program and a supplement to other stuff.

[jjm323]

Why do you think that this simulation has an E or E/P horse like Recapture the Glory whose connections inidicate that they intend to send him coming way off the pace?

[JustRalph]

Why do you think that this simulation has an E or E/P horse like Recapture the Glory whose connections inidicate that they intend to send him coming way off the pace?


take a look...................the blue chicklet denotes that is the paceline being used by the sim. I would say that recapturetheglory ran pretty big late...........according to bris anyway.............looks to me that he isn't exactly a front runner at all.............not a stone cold one anyway

http://www.justralph.com/recapture.jpg

[LottaKash]

Lotta, Equisim has been around a while.

www.thorotech.com (http://www.thorotech.com/)





It has its merits. Gets good marks from many. Many use it as a supplement to other stuff. I used to use it alone and did very well with it. But the newer programs (HTR JCapper etc) are continually evolving and I think that is where Equisim has now become an "add on" program and a supplement to other stuff.


Thx Just Ralph...for splainin further....sounds interesting......

How is your bottom line, when using Jcapper and supplementing with Sim.....I won't be offended, if you don't confess...hehe.......

Thx again.....best,

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure how one can say that Recapturetheglory "isn't exactly a frontrunner at all." Positionally at least, it seems that's exactly what he is....he's broken either first or second in all four races shown, and had the lead by the first quarter in 3 of 4.

In his maiden win, where he had to chase, he got up by the slimmest of margins....

[LottaKash]

I'm not sure how one can say that Recapturetheglory "isn't exactly a frontrunner at all." Positionally at least, it seems that's exactly what he is....he's broken either first or second in all four races shown, and had the lead by the first quarter in 3 of 4.

In his maiden win, where he had to chase, he got up by the slimmest of margins....


Dat is zackly wut I c-2........:eek:

[ryesteve]

I guess Equisim bases the sim off the figs and not the positions. Even though the horse has been running on the lead, those early pace figs are awfully slow.

[Tom]

I believe it uses the paces ratings to simulate the race, so the low E2 and high LP would expalin it. When I used to use ES, I would look at these situations as a red flag - the horse's running style and numbers do not jive. I would have to ask myself - can this horse run this race?

Ralph, can you enter formulae in to your version? I'd like to do that with som e BRIS stuff I have accumulated (including Michiken ratings:ThmbUp:)

I've been thinking of getting ES back into operation..it is a really fun program to use. I might need to upgrade.

[JustRalph]

I'm not sure how one can say that Recapturetheglory "isn't exactly a frontrunner at all." Positionally at least, it seems that's exactly what he is....he's broken either first or second in all four races shown, and had the lead by the first quarter in 3 of 4.

In his maiden win, where he had to chase, he got up by the slimmest of margins....

I was just speaking of the numbers. I knew he ran pretty well late, but those numbers surprised me a little. I think he could probably rate..........with those numbers............ it would be effective if they could do it.

[JustRalph]

I believe it uses the paces ratings to simulate the race, so the low E2 and high LP would expalin it. When I used to use ES, I would look at these situations as a red flag - the horse's running style and numbers do not jive. I would have to ask myself - can this horse run this race?

Ralph, can you enter formulae in to your version? I'd like to do that with som e BRIS stuff I have accumulated (including Michiken ratings:ThmbUp:)

I've been thinking of getting ES back into operation..it is a really fun program to use. I might need to upgrade.

Yep, I can do the formula stuff. But I don't. I use it mostly for the sim. It does a great job of comparing pacelines. I think it is great for pointing out races that don't look so good..........but might have been better than they look on paper.

Yesterday at Santa Anita I was rooting for "Warren's Jack V" down the lane in the last race. He went off at 20-1 and was on my double ticket. He lost by 3/4 of a length. I got the double, but it would have gone from 90 bucks to 300 had this horse have gotten up. The rider taking him 8 wide in the first turn didn't help........ :bang: Anyway, Warren's Jack V was on top in the Equisim simulator. Volatile Maiden races aren't exactly the programs best look, but when they are on Top of the Sim, I pay attention.

[Tom]

I don't remember this, but can you select three or four lines for the same horse and have him race against himslef? THAT would be worthwhile. What lines are abberant, etc. That is what I imss most about K Gen - you could look graphically at all the lines from one horse.

[JustRalph]

What are the odds we see this on Derby Day.............?????

From the Equisim Simulator

[MakinItHappen]

I am not sure that I am interpretting this simulation correctly, but is almost appears that Big Brown is so far ahead that he has paused to take a leak in the stretch...:lol:

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[JustRalph]

http://www.justralph.com/2008_ky_derby_raw_changed_pyro.jpg


This is using the best race for each horse............last run and post

Just some food for thought...........

http://www.justralph.com/2008derbysim.jpg

[JustRalph]

visionaire is missing from above, due to the program using the race in the fog.

when choosing a different race, the horse runs 13th........although it appears that might be a little unfair........since the race in the fog looks to be the best one for visionaire.......fyi

[rgustafson]

Ralph, a couple of things come to mind. Are those the actual times of the interior fractions that the prigram projects for the race, and any program that has Bob Blackjack 16th at the first call I have to wonder about?:)

[JustRalph]

Ralph, a couple of things come to mind. Are those the actual times of the interior fractions that the prigram projects for the race, and any program that has Bob Blackjack 16th at the first call I have to wonder about?:)

It's using the Santa Anita Derby fractions to put him there.

We shall see.............

[46zilzal]

Eight Belles is starting to look a lot like Rags...Wow if this one can run back to the last two, she is right there. Too early to call her the winner though.

[cj]

Eight Belles is starting to look a lot like Rags...Wow if this one can run back to the last two, she is right there. Too early to call her the winner though.

7pm Saturday night?

[njcurveball]

It's using the Santa Anita Derby fractions to put him there.

We shall see.............

You can only do so much with data. In real life with dirt, this horse will probably be on the lead for 6 furlongs and maybe even further.

If the jock takes him back to 16th, the trainer will have a hit man hired and waiting by the time they hit the wire. :D

[46zilzal]

7pm Saturday night?
Having just got the information (past performances) about an hour ago, yes, it is too early for me to call this one the winner.