MONDAY WOOD 4/14/08

[botster]

Here are some i think may be of some value:

6th 4 BEAMEUP G(SPOT) has the raw ability to crush this field.Second time hobbled and drops into the basement with a smart trot trainer... nobodys taking this veteran tonight.

7th 9 KEYSTONE DEBONAIR has been chasing a rejuvinated DREAMDROP HANOVER, and his last dropping to this level was topnotch, even though it was on a very fast track.
10 COLTON DUHARAS "would knockdown the toteboard" with his odds tonight, but does has a very strong figure...one to bet progressivly in the upcoming weeks.


8th 10 ROSERUN HOOLIGAN a big fan of this horse since the ship from Ohio.I always thought this horse was Open caliber, and i really think that switch to J.J showed the missing piece to the puzzle.I respect Oliver alot, and still think he wins here... even from the ten hole.

10th 4 IRON MARSHAL was taken over by a smart outfit and showed instant improvement in last... hoping the GP will look past that one.
7 KERRS LIGHT is another that showes some nice angles and M.M should never be overlooked when getting on one for the first time...another to bet progressivly.

11th RAM OF THE HOUSE(BEST) this is a positive driver change here and this new barn has stepped up this horses ability a good degree.I liked him alot in last and was not surprised with his performance in the least.

Good Fortune All:jump:

[LottaKash]

Good Luck Botster.......I'm rootin for ya........:cool:

[LottaKash]

Hey Botster, pretty good shootin, for the most part.....you have my undivided attention......

When I saw your picks, I decided to look into them.....I didn't have any plans to do any cappin' tonite.....So, I opened up the Woodbine card and decided to try and match with you, so to speak....Please keep in mind, that retro-cappin is ez , as opposed to forward cappin.......I did not peek any, as the results were coming in, so you will have to take my word for what I'm about to say.........it's fun...

Firstly, I do not intend to critique you in any way, that is not my agenda......just some friendly competition.......


6R -#4 - Beameup G.....Nice score for you $13.30 is nice price any time.......for me I thought that #8 Cr Daddy O was really the best in this race, with a nice money box and good back class....trouble with that one, without good gate speed from the 8 holel it would have to be a no go for the win tonite.....but he was 2d and if you and I had buddied up on the exacta a $76.50 payout would've been the result......


7r - Keystone Debonair, a nice play, perhaps, but his lack of confirmed high early speed, was his demise, I think.....this is a Nw2 lifetime, and for the sake of those who don't know, experience will teach you that, in particular, a change from nw3 to nw2 was/is a BIG change, on the surface most fans will surmise that is only a 1-class jump, but, in reality, most times it is a significantly higher rise or lowering of class. So Botster, your were right on in your prediction even tho he only got 2d, $710 for the place and lightly raced horses will often win in this situation....If KD was inside he may well have won it....
But, for me the play was the eventual favorite and winner #7 Get out of Dodge ( i never play favorites in nw races) but he paid $4.70 for the win.......My reasoning is this race is this.....All the Horses have just about the same TM-SR's so that is not the issue in here......What seals if for me How Powerful the 7 is racing right now...3wins in a row...( in nw's races a horse, when in the same class, will repeat a win more frequently than in other classes) His last race was a win going away, from the 8 hole, in this race he has the best last 1/4 with a very formful line.....sharp trainer, and a fantastic money box....This horse is razor sharp and is on the way up, plus in his last race he was bet to7/2, by itself it doesn't strike any notes, for most fans, but I have found that, when a horse wins and is raised in class,and his odds in the subsequent race are the same or lower than it's last race, It is a significant supportive factor, not by itself, but supportive.........Exacta with Botster horse and mine = $30.50..........

8R - Botster had the #10 - Rose Run Hooligan finished 3d......I have no comments and no selections......

10R - Iron Marshal. ran out..........I thought that the eventual winner was the pick (but, at $2.60 for the win, who needs him)........#2 Kard Shark Krazy, won his qualifier, prior to his first start, in which he was bet to 2.60/1 (again, I have found when a horse is coming off of a qualifier or making his first start, when bet@ 5/1 or lower, it is a significant supportive factor).....In his first start, he sat far back into a 1:24.4 3/4 blew home in 26:3, now this is very hard to do, It is a show of Power especially in a horses's first start, there is no telling how high up this horse will go.......follow......I could never bet against this horse in this particular race.......

11R - #8 Ram of the House....ran out...I was disappointed that Botster liked this horse from the 8 hole....He is only 3 for 51, and despite the new barn angle, this step up without a win is out of range........Out of respect for the botster, I will rest here......

Botster, I am beginning to see your view of things, I like what I see, and you have Cajones.....Keep on keepin on.....

Best,

[botster]

LK good analysis... never any hard feelings when someone wants to critique my posts or throw in his two cents...actually i wish more would.

I must first post that i am always trying to pick horses that are always in the price range of 8-1 or better for the win, and 6-1 for exactas.Thus there are frequent times first and second choices beat me here at the WEG, not unlike that chalkie against ARMBRO DEBONAIR.

6th BEAMMEUP G blasted down the road and demolished these at 5-1.

7th KEYSONE DEBONAIR at a nice 8-1, left hard while very rough,sat patiently off a hot pace launched an uncovered bid, led but was run down late by the betting favorite.

8th 10 ROSERUN HOOLIGAN 10-1 was used very hard for a tuck,had to come first over into a rated clip, hung on gamely for third, while getting nailed for the place.

10th 4 IRON MARSHAL 23-1 in a race where the 1-5 blew the doors off of them, the latter was on a line throughout especially in the straightaways, came on with even pace late while outkicked by rivals.

11th 8 RAM OF THE HOUSE was taking no action whatsoever on the board at 21-1, after tabbed with a 9-2 morning line, sending off warning signals in his current form.In the race, he was actually driven like he was 1-2, blasting then retaking,tired gradually in the stretch.