Keeneland: The Real Graveyard of Favorites

[rgustafson]

Halfway through the meet (85 races) favorites winning at just over 15%:)

[Marshall Bennett]

... about the percentages of throwing darts at a racing form .

[JustRalph]

... about the percentages of throwing darts at a racing form .

now stop it!! You will let out my Keeneland secret..............for picking the big winners............

[LottaKash]

... about the percentages of throwing darts at a racing form .


I thought that was about 11%..........:jump:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...what is the percentage of the winner coming out of the top 3 wagering choices in each race....

....about 22% ?

The best wagering strategy I've seen at the meeting is the ALL box in the first leg of the dime superfecta. :D

[Marshall Bennett]

I thought that was about 11%..........:jump:


No No No ... That was when they had us throwing from a synthetic surface / :mad:

[ny0707ny]

Keeneland is impossible to handicap. Two reasons for that. You have large fields and great horses.

The public should be wrong there more so than other tracks.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Although there are some very sharp bettors there, the bulk of the Keeneland crowd is out for an afternoon of sport and cocktails.

There are plenty of UK students out gambling and partying and their money is usually wasted on jockeys, trainers and whoever Mike Battaglia makes the morning line favorite.

Then, you have the "Keeneland Goers" who only go to the live races in Lexington and never darken the door of simulcasting. They bemoan the retirement of Pat Day, as he was their God and savior, cashing chalk ticket after chalk ticket, while showing a net loss, for 20 years. They have embraced Robby Albarado and Rafael Bejarano and Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, so their horses are usually large underlays.

Horses are coming from 20 different racetracks and usually run just once in the 16 day meet making the the races difficult to handicap anyway, but with all the "stupid money" being pushed through the windows, legitimate contenders' prices escalate quite quickly.

If you can be patient enough to wait for horribly false favorites to finish out of the money and play accordingly, the exotic payoffs are astronomical. One score can make your entire meeting.

[cj]

Steve Crist points out in his blog that of the 13 synthetic G1 races run to date, 0 favorites have won. Not only that, seven have run 5th or worse.

[asH]

This is a good game!

[jonnielu]

Keeneland is impossible to handicap. Two reasons for that. You have large fields and great horses.

The public should be wrong there more so than other tracks.

Keeneland is a great place to study the realities of horse racing, amongst them is the actual value of conventional "form" handicapping. For anyone that wants to learn more about horseracing in three weeks time then reading a roomful of handicapping books, I recommend daily attendance with an open mind.

I have 6 days in so far, and will be back this Friday, I haven't seen one screwball result yet.

jdl

[Marshall Bennett]

Steve Crist points out in his blog that of the 13 synthetic G1 races run to date, 0 favorites have won. Not only that, seven have run 5th or worse.
Good stat !! Without a doubt , not much of a standard by which derby favorites can be judged by . I'd draw a line through all of them and look elsewhere . :cool:

[Imriledup]

THe reason longshots are winning is because people are making the odds based on what horses show on paper. The problem is that those paper performances were contested on tracks OTHER than this particular Kee Polytrack, which means they don't mean a thing.


Well, they mean a little, but not as much as the public thinks. There is too much money on horses who look good on the highway dirt track of Gulfstream or some other place.

[jonnielu]

THe reason longshots are winning is because people are making the odds based on what horses show on paper. The problem is that those paper performances were contested on tracks OTHER than this particular Kee Polytrack, which means they don't mean a thing.


Well, they mean a little, but not as much as the public thinks. There is too much money on horses who look good on the highway dirt track of Gulfstream or some other place.

The public at Keeneland is betting exactly the way the public has bet for the past 30 years. Check the 8th yesterday, the public did the same thing there that they've been doing since the start of pari-mutuel wagering. One of the biggest mistakes the public makes is thinking that there is a big difference in surfaces.

jdl

[asH]

The public at Keeneland is betting exactly the way the public has bet for the past 30 years. Check the 8th yesterday, the public did the same thing there that they've been doing since the start of pari-mutuel wagering. One of the biggest mistakes the public makes is thinking that there is a big difference in surfaces.

jdl
http://www.robertkleingallery.com/gallery/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=16824&g2_serialNumber=2
:D ok, Ill bite...
wasnt the Kee 8th on turf??

[ryesteve]

The public at Keeneland is betting exactly the way the public has bet for the past 30 years. Check the 8th yesterday, the public did the same thing there that they've been doing since the start of pari-mutuel wagering. One of the biggest mistakes the public makes is thinking that there is a big difference in surfaces.
Ok... so if the public is betting Keeneland the same way, and there is no difference in racing surfaces, why are favorites winning at only half the rate they're supposed to? Something must be different...

[jonnielu]

Ok... so if the public is betting Keeneland the same way, and there is no difference in racing surfaces, why are favorites winning at only half the rate they're supposed to? Something must be different...

I said not a big difference, there are differences, just not ones that have large effects. The thing that makes Keeneland different from many meets is that the racing secretary is able to put 6 or 7 relatively equal horses in each race, instead of just 3 or 4.

Equality breeds chaos, chaos makes for boxcar payoffs, that make for big handle, that makes for big purses, that make that wheel start to turn and keep turning.

The handicapper is looking for differences that can be spotted in the form, and is therefore blinded to the equality that insures the confusion.

jdl

[JustRalph]

Although there are some very sharp bettors there, the bulk of the Keeneland crowd is out for an afternoon of sport and cocktails.

Sport and Cocktails.......... that is the theme of my trip this year.
I am gonna walk into the place and just hand my entire bankroll to the first bartender I see and forget the racing. What a great idea. It will be just like every year since they put in the polytrack....!!! I won't win any money on the horses............but I will get toasted this year...............:lol:

[Tom]

Steve Crist points out in his blog that of the 13 synthetic G1 races run to date, 0 favorites have won. Not only that, seven have run 5th or worse.

Interesting corallary to that will be how do they perform when they return to dirt? I'll see if I can come up with that from my DB.

[Tom]

Sport and Cocktails.......... that is the theme of my trip this year.
I am gonna walk into the place and just hand my entire bankroll to the first bartender I see and forget the racing. What a great idea. It will be just like every year since they put in the polytrack....!!! I won't win any money on the horses............but I will get toasted this year...............:lol:

Have an ice cream cone with Matty.
Wave to me on TVG! :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

This is the first year I'm paying a lot of attention to Keeneland since the switch to Poly, and it's one of my best performing tracks this year by far. With that said, I'm still very much against the rush to install artificial surfaces, even though Keeneland is paying off big time this year. (Just threw that in for those that like to say that people who are against polytrack are people who can't handicap polytrack).

[BillW]

This is the first year I'm paying a lot of attention to Keeneland since the switch to Poly, and it's one of my best performing tracks this year by far. With that said, I'm still very much against the rush to install artificial surfaces, even though Keeneland is paying off big time this year. (Just threw that in for those that like to say that people who are against polytrack are people who can't handicap polytrack).

Just a side note, Keeneland had a poly mfgr facility on site and had a poly training track for few years before they installed it on the main track - they didn't exactly rush. :)

[Premier Turf Club]

Ralph,

If you and some other PA folks are going to be out at KEE I'm going to try and see if my partner Joe Riddell can meet with you guys and give you some pointers on the surface.


Please just let me know when you'll be there and I'll set it up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just a side note, Keeneland had a poly mfgr facility on site and had a poly training track for few years before they installed it on the main track - they didn't exactly rush. :)Since Keeneland has a financial interest in Polytrack's success, I would think they would be the FIRST to install the surface (they were 2nd I believe, 2nd to Turfway)....

[Niko]

Although there are some very sharp bettors there, the bulk of the Keeneland crowd is out for an afternoon of sport and cocktails.

There are plenty of UK students out gambling and partying and their money is usually wasted on jockeys, trainers and whoever Mike Battaglia makes the morning line favorite.

Then, you have the "Keeneland Goers" who only go to the live races in Lexington and never darken the door of simulcasting. They bemoan the retirement of Pat Day, as he was their God and savior, cashing chalk ticket after chalk ticket, while showing a net loss, for 20 years. They have embraced Robby Albarado and Rafael Bejarano and Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, so their horses are usually large underlays.

Horses are coming from 20 different racetracks and usually run just once in the 16 day meet making the the races difficult to handicap anyway, but with all the "stupid money" being pushed through the windows, legitimate contenders' prices escalate quite quickly.

If you can be patient enough to wait for horribly false favorites to finish out of the money and play accordingly, the exotic payoffs are astronomical. One score can make your entire meeting.

I don't know what the favorite win percentage was with dirt, but wasn't all the above in place before the switch to poly? Or is it on the rise? So that might not explain it. I think it's because people are taking dirt numbers at face value and using them to try to predict poly results....and that's pretty tough to do. Like using dirt numbers to predict grass numbers...

[JustRalph]

Ralph,

If you and some other PA folks are going to be out at KEE I'm going to try and see if my partner Joe Riddell can meet with you guys and give you some pointers on the surface.


Please just let me know when you'll be there and I'll set it up.

24-25th early morning would be good. Billw and I will be there for sure.

There are few others that usually stop by and Bill has a crowd of goodfellows everywhere he goes :ThmbUp:

I will get with you before I head up there.

[Premier Turf Club]

24-25th early morning would be good. Billw and I will be there for sure.

There are few others that usually stop by and Bill has a crowd of goodfellows everywhere he goes :ThmbUp:

I will get with you before I head up there.

Sounds good. Joe is out clocking every morning until about 9:30 and then comes back later on in the day.

[ManeMediaMogul]

I don't know what the favorite win percentage was with dirt, but wasn't all the above in place before the switch to poly? Or is it on the rise? So that might not explain it. I think it's because people are taking dirt numbers at face value and using them to try to predict poly results....and that's pretty tough to do. Like using dirt numbers to predict grass numbers...

The former dirt track had a speed bias similar to Aqueduct-inner, so even the lemmings could figure out who was gonna make the lead. That coupled with Pat Day winning three or four a day made the favorites win percentage much better.

[ryesteve]

The former dirt track had a speed bias similar to Aqueduct-innerI think most of us accept that... except those who would insist that all surfaces are the same.

[rastajenk]

Since Keeneland has a financial interest in Polytrack's success, I would think they would be the FIRST to install the surface (they were 2nd I believe, 2nd to Turfway)....Keeneland has an ownership stake in Turfway, too. At least they did when I was there a few years ago; pretty sure they still do.

[Charlie D]

I did this quick, so if anything is wrong please forgive me

Keen 2008 - First and second's position in betting


Transalvania 5th, 3rd
Ashland 5th, 3rd
Lafayette 3rd, 4th
Madison 2nd, 9th
Stonerside 2nd, 1st
Commonwealth 2nd, last
Bluegrass 4th, 3rd


Like Crists data, the sample is iffy, but Pyro, Big Truck running down feild in Bluegrass didn't really surprise me, horses like Prussian, Barrier Reef getting beat didn't really surprise me either

To me it seems to be competive racing with results that probably match it's competitiveness and with a bit of thought, it's probably a good meeting at which to find some decent bets as people like PA seems to be doing

[BillW]

Sounds good. Joe is out clocking every morning until about 9:30 and then comes back later on in the day.

That's about the time we get there to save some tables. :ThmbUp:

[BillW]

Since Keeneland has a financial interest in Polytrack's success, I would think they would be the FIRST to install the surface (they were 2nd I believe, 2nd to Turfway)....

My point was that the only "rush to install" happened in California. Keeneland had a few years experience with the surface before putting it down on the main track.

[rgustafson]

Final stats for winning favorites for the Keeneland meet:

Overall winning favorites: 23%

Turf favorites: 15%-16%

Poly favorites: 25%